A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s still 2025.  Many, many deals happen in January.

Not sure why so many fans have this mentality that if your starting lineup isn’t etched in stone before Thanksgiving, you’re not trying.  
 

This team did address major needs with Gray and Contreras replacing Toro and Buehler/Dobbins.  Those are definite upgrades.  With over 3 months to opening day, there is plenty of time.  With 7 of the MLBTR top 10 free agents still unsigned, the the argument that the rest of MLB is miles ahead is just laughable…

It didn't used to be "wait until February for the pieces to be in place." It's very recent that we've had to wait way past Christmas to know what the majority of the team would look like. 

Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford were both on the Sox roster by December 10th in time for Winter Fest at Fenway (whatever the hell it was called back then). Most of the FA's would actually sign at the winter meetings. Now, everything has been pushed back. Don't be too mad at the fans who were used to the old calendar and liked to have their presents under the tree...

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It didn't used to be "wait until February for the pieces to be in place." It's very recent that we've had to wait way past Christmas to know what the majority of the team would look like. 

Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford were both on the Sox roster by December 10th in time for Winter Fest at Fenway (whatever the hell it was called back then). Most of the FA's would actually sign at the winter meetings. Now, everything has been pushed back. Don't be too mad at the fans who were used to the old calendar and liked to have their presents under the tree...

Plus the Red Sox didn’t even make an offer to Flintstone, and half an offer to Alonso whom the Red Sox were supposedly interested in. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Plus the Red Sox didn’t even make an offer to Flintstone, and half an offer to Alonso whom the Red Sox were supposedly interested in. 

I'm fine with both in a vacuum if there's a legit plan for 2b or 3b. Schwarber doesn't make sense roster-wise because they still have Masa lingering. Alonso's contract will age very poorly. 

Will they just sign Bo and move Mayer to 3b? Will they re-sign Breggie and hope for health luck over the next 5+ years? Trade for Donovan and run out a very weak lineup? 

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They can option him until Masa's contract runs out. If he's really raking like 2023 and has no after effects of the injury, DFA Masa and bring Casas up. Easiest call in the world. 

Indeed, although I don't think DFA'ing Masa will happen. We can pay down most and even almost all of his deal and save at least $2-4M on the tax line by doing so. 

I project Masa to hit neat .775 in 2026 and ..750 in 2027. Even though he has so little power, that has value. That might be better numbers than Duran would give us at DH. If Casas hits .790-.820, that's not a whole lot better than Masa, either.

If we end up trading an OF'er, we might view Masa as OF depth for LF or a short RF. A Campbell-Masa LF platoon might net a higher OPS than Duran.

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Will they just sign Bo and move Mayer to 3b? Will they re-sign Breggie and hope for health luck over the next 5+ years? Trade for Donovan and run out a very weak lineup? 

I don't see why we'd choose Bichette as the one guy we single out for a large and long contract, except that he fits the age requirement. (The Sox have extended under 29 players for long term deals.) I'm not high on Bichette. He does not have the power we need, and will likely play 2B for the Sox.

I don't see why we'd offer Bregman more years, now that he's a year older. I don't want him at 5 years. We can't ignore his 3 years of offensive decline over a 2/3 season resurgence.

It looks like a no-go on KMarte, so I see our best chances at something of value lies with Paredes, Donovan, Vientos or E Suarez. (Don't listen to rumors that Paredes will not be traded. The Astros are likely locked into an infield of Walker, Altuve, Correa & Pena, and they want Yordan at DH not Altuve or Paredes.)

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine with both in a vacuum if there's a legit plan for 2b or 3b. Schwarber doesn't make sense roster-wise because they still have Masa lingering. Alonso's contract will age very poorly. 

Will they just sign Bo and move Mayer to 3b? Will they re-sign Breggie and hope for health luck over the next 5+ years? Trade for Donovan and run out a very weak lineup? 

Schwaber’s bat would have helped the lineup, but no position. Alonso’s contract May age poorly, but so may Bregmans, but I still think it’s BREGMAN, or nobody on a long term.

[Jean-Sébastien Blouin]

What are the latest rumors about trades or signings for the Red Sox?

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s still 2025.  Many, many deals happen in January.

Not sure why so many fans have this mentality that if your starting lineup isn’t etched in stone before Thanksgiving, you’re not trying.  
 

This team did address major needs with Gray and Contreras replacing Toro and Buehler/Dobbins.  Those are definite upgrades.  With over 3 months to opening day, there is plenty of time.  With 7 of the MLBTR top 10 free agents still unsigned, the the argument that the rest of MLB is miles ahead is just laughable…

We're just used to getting let down a lot the last few years, offseasons and deadlines alike.

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Schwaber’s bat would have helped the lineup, but no position. Alonso’s contract May age poorly, but so may Bregmans, but I still think it’s BREGMAN, or nobody on a long term.

Or Bichette possibly.

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, although I don't think DFA'ing Masa will happen. We can pay down most and even almost all of his deal and save at least $2-4M on the tax line by doing so. 

I project Masa to hit neat .775 in 2026 and ..750 in 2027. Even though he has so little power, that has value. That might be better numbers than Duran would give us at DH. If Casas hits .790-.820, that's not a whole lot better than Masa, either.

If we end up trading an OF'er, we might view Masa as OF depth for LF or a short RF. A Campbell-Masa LF platoon might net a higher OPS than Duran.

Masa has been more a negative than a plus, especially with the health issues, plus Cora has been sitting him against a lot of lefties.   

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Schwaber’s bat would have helped the lineup, but no position. Alonso’s contract May age poorly, but so may Bregmans, but I still think it’s BREGMAN, or nobody on a long term.

I'm not sure why so many think Alonso will age well but like Bregman more. Here are their OPS+ trends:

Bregman (almost a year older than Pete.)/ Alonso

162 at age 25/ 122 Alonso in 1/3 of a season

117 at 26/ 133 Alonso

113 at 27 in just over a half season/ 146 Alonso

134 at 28/ 123 Alonso

122 at 29/ 122 Alons0

116 at 30/144 Alonso

128 at 31 in 2/3 of a season/ Alonso TBD in 2026

From age 26 to 30, Alonso was better in 3, the same in 1 and worse at age 28 (4 years ago.)

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Masa has been more a negative than a plus, especially with the health issues, plus Cora has been sitting him against a lot of lefties.   

I get that, but apparently he was left on the IL while he built up throwing arm strength so he could play LF. (Very strange choice.)

We had a logjam in the OF and Devers at DH, so that is likely why Masa missed so much time in 2025.

I'm not high on Masa. I just think we can get something for him, even if it's just $2-4M a year in salary relief. (I think more like $4-5.5M.)

I also think that after trading an OF'er, the Masa-Campbell 4th OF'er platoon gives Masa more value to the team than as a 5th OF'er option.

If Casas rakes at AAA, that OF value might not be enough to keep Masa around, but IMO, he won't be DFA'd unless he sucks (under .725 or 750) to start off 2026.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed, although I don't think DFA'ing Masa will happen. We can pay down most and even almost all of his deal and save at least $2-4M on the tax line by doing so. 

Whether they trade or eat 90% of his contract, it's not a big difference to me. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see why we'd choose Bichette as the one guy we single out for a large and long contract, except that he fits the age requirement. (The Sox have extended under 29 players for long term deals.) I'm not high on Bichette. He does not have the power we need, and will likely play 2B for the Sox.

I don't see why we'd offer Bregman more years, now that he's a year older. I don't want him at 5 years. We can't ignore his 3 years of offensive decline over a 2/3 season resurgence.

It looks like a no-go on KMarte, so I see our best chances at something of value lies with Paredes, Donovan, Vientos or E Suarez. (Don't listen to rumors that Paredes will not be traded. The Astros are likely locked into an infield of Walker, Altuve, Correa & Pena, and they want Yordan at DH not Altuve or Paredes.)

Why on Bo? Age.

Why on Breggie? More confident on what he brings to the org after previous direct experience.

 

[Hugh2]

You hope Casas hits his way back, if he does there’s a spot for him at DH.

If you retain all your outfielders you can get them all full time at bats with the DH spot over.

Masa doesn’t kill you if he’s in the lineup, but he’s just such a horrible fit for this roster.  So much is opened up if he’s gone.  

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Schwaber’s bat would have helped the lineup, but no position. Alonso’s contract May age poorly, but so may Bregmans, but I still think it’s BREGMAN, or nobody on a long term.

I agree with you.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

You hope Casas hits his way back, if he does there’s a spot for him at DH.

If you retain all your outfielders you can get them all full time at bats with the DH spot over.

Masa doesn’t kill you if he’s in the lineup, but he’s just such a horrible fit for this roster.  So much is opened up if he’s gone.  

All the other orgs that were laughing at the Sox at the time of Masa's signing were right to do so.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why on Bo? Age.

Why on Breggie? More confident on what he brings to the org after previous direct experience.

I mentioned age for Bichette, but do you really think of all the available FAs since the Yoshida signing, he's "the one?" (Maybe he is. I prefer he not be.)

Bregman was not offered 4-5 years, last winter, and now he's a year older. For this reason, I doubt we get him. Of course he'd bring the pluses you mention, as would Bichette in his own way.

I don't see either as "the guys" JH throws his philosophy away on. Bregman is the more likely option of these two.

I think JH would rather sign E Suarez to 2  years than either of these two for 4-5 or more years. Just my opinion.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

All the other orgs that were laughing at the Sox at the time of Masa's signing were right to do so.

So was BorASS.😉

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're just used to getting let down a lot the last few years, offseasons and deadlines alike.

Not that long ago, almost nothing happened before Christmas around MLB.  This is fast-paced.

And Breslow hasn’t let us down in the offseason yet, has he?  

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you make it sound like we are a small market team.

It has nothing to do with the market.  If you can be 2% better for 5 years, or 2% better for one year, you pick 5 years every time.  Same as in real life.

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Trade for Marte and a 5 year window!

Marte's window is likely two years.  But using my example, would you want Marte's 6 years, or a player with 2% less talent that was, say 29 years old?  That's how these decision are and should be made.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why on Bo? Age.

Why on Breggie? More confident on what he brings to the org after previous direct experience.

 

Bo was literally conceived right behind the Green Monster, where his dad met his mom at a workout club.

That's conceive, as in "form an idea... like imagining a new feeling."

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, Old Red said:

OMG! 2026 is the here, and now, and you don’t give up a year for anything, because you’ll never get it back. 2027 isn’t guaranteed for anything, and I’m not even going to think about 2027 until next offseason.

I have no idea of how to process that.  IMO, 2027 is just as much here and now as 2026.  And how does one not think about the future?  Would you trade 6 years of Anthony for one year of Skubal?  There is little doubt that Skubal will out-perform Anthony in 2026, so I assume you'd make that trade?

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This problem becomes much more solvable if John Henry would just open up his wallet every once in a blue moon.

Whether Henry spent or not doesn't really impact the fact that you still want to be 10% better.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We can focus on trying to win a WS in 2026 without writing off 2027, 2028 and beyond.

I'm flexible on these matters, but the idea that winning in 2026 is somehow uniquely better than winning in any other year, is not a concept I understand.  In fact, I'd bet that we have a better shot at a WS in 2027 than we do in 2026.  If there were under-over futures markets, I'd make a decent-sized wager we'll have a better record in '27 than '26.  Tolle, Early, Mayer, probably Campbell, and maybe Witherspoon, should be ensconced in our lineup by then.

So why 2026?

[notin]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bo was literally conceived right behind the Green Monster, where his dad met his mom at a workout club.

That's conceive, as in "form an idea... like imagining a new feeling."

There was a parking lot there at that time…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think JH would rather sign E Suarez to 2  years than either of these two for 4-5 or more years.

I agree 100%.  With the recency factor in mind, I assume a good 2026 for Suarez, meaning that Suarez is really only a one-year risk.  Anything more than two years becomes risky for both Bregman and Marte.  While anything can happen, age for hitters is fairly unforgiving.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I have no idea of how to process that.  IMO, 2027 is just as much here and now as 2026.  And how does one not think about the future?  Would you trade 6 years of Anthony for one year of Skubal?  There is little doubt that Skubal will out-perform Anthony in 2026, so I assume you'd make that trade?

It’s good to know when next season starts on March 26th it will count in the 2027 standings. Not only would I trade ANTHONY for 1 year of Skubal I’d throw in Mayer, and Duran too. A real BLOCKBUSTER.🙈🤭

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree 100%.  With the recency factor in mind, I assume a good 2026 for Suarez, meaning that Suarez is really only a one-year risk.  Anything more than two years becomes risky for both Bregman and Marte.  While anything can happen, age for hitters is fairly unforgiving.

Risky but not likely giving us nothing of value after 2 years.