A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[UtahSox]

I have zero confidence in FO development of position players. So much so that the thought of selling off pieces for prospects makes me ill. But this team just absolutely stinks at baseball. 

[JoeBrady]

On 5/24/2026 at 9:21 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Zack Scott said quite the opposite, Joe.  I just bumped the thread I started about what Scott said about Betts.

I read most of the Scott quotes, but it didn't feel like a compelling argument.  I expected to read something along the lines of 'the RS offered x, Betts wanted y, the RS countered with z, that they talked to the LAD, SDP, etc.'

But there wasn't really much of that.  Like the article implied, it feels like Scott is trying to establish his on-line credentials.

[JoeBrady]

On 5/24/2026 at 9:29 AM, Old Red said:

Betts, and the Red Sox battled pretty much all the time Betts was with the Red Sox on a contract.

And that supports my idea that Betts wanted out.  I think that too many fans think that Boston is the ultimate BB destination.  That was true once upon a time (with NYY), but those days are long past.

I see absolutely nothing wrong with the idea that Betts took a look at the same thing I (and many others) looked.  A mediocre team, with an already expensive payroll, with no help coming from the farm, and decided he didn't want to spend a large part of his career watching the RS rebuild.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why would Mookie lie that he and his wife were house-shopping in the Boston area when the trade went down?

Why would Rice lie and said Mookie immediately told him via phone call that Boston was where he wanted to be when the trade went down?

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And that supports my idea that Betts wanted out.  I think that too many fans think that Boston is the ultimate BB destination.  That was true once upon a time (with NYY), but those days are long past.

I see absolutely nothing wrong with the idea that Betts took a look at the same thing I (and many others) looked.  A mediocre team, with an already expensive payroll, with no help coming from the farm, and decided he didn't want to spend a large part of his career watching the RS rebuild.

That doesn’t support any theory that Betts wanted out, but only supports the theory that every step of the way Mookie wanted to get as much money as he could. It was already mentioned, but I’ll mention again that by reports Mookie told Rice he didn’t want to leave Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

Please post about Mookie in the other thread!  😄

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

BTV struggling right now. I can’t remember disagreeing this much w/ BTV since I joined their site. 

They now have Rafaela as the highest value player, mainly due to so many years of control at a reasonable rate.

According to BTV, the Sox extensions netted a plus:

+57 Rafaela

+43 Anthony

-1 Campbell

-22 Bello

Net: +77

The Bloom Effect:

-40 Story (owed $47M)

-23 Yoshida (owed $30M)

Basically, someone might pay $7M of each of their deals.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm turning into Bill Freaking Parcells...all that seems important to me anymore is the team's W-L record.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm turning into Bill Freaking Parcells...all that seems important to me anymore is the team's W-L record.

👍👍👍👏

[jad]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why would Mookie lie that he and his wife were house-shopping in the Boston area when the trade went down?

Why would Rice lie and said Mookie immediately told him via phone call that Boston was where he wanted to be when the trade went down?

Because ... because ... you know! ... HER EMAILS!!

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why would Mookie lie that he and his wife were house-shopping in the Boston area when the trade went down?

Why would Rice lie and said Mookie immediately told him via phone call that Boston was where he wanted to be when the trade went down?

I know you probably read it in an article or a blog or post somewhere, but it really feels like bringing the activities of his spouse into the fray definitely has a creepy stalker vibe.

[moonslav59]

I know several of us suggested signing Schwaber and some other players off to a good start, but here are the names I think were mentioned the most as possible Sox targets:

fWAR

2.2 Brandon Lowe

2.0 Willson Contreras (not mentioned much until we got him)

1.9 Nico Hoerner

1.8 CJ Abrams & Ryan Jeffer (who I mentioned several times as a DH/2nd C)

1.7 Murakami

1.6 Schwarber

1.5 Yandy Diaz

1.2 K Marte, Z Neto, Nolan Arenado, E Tovar, Chisholm & Teoscar

1.0  D Swanson (Kyle Tucker- "not a fit")

0.9 Paredes, B Stott

0.8 Bregman, Okamoto &  Rushing

0.7 N Lowe

0.6 Donovan, O'Hearn & Chapman

0.5 Acuna, Conforto, G Torres

0.4 Realmuto, (Tristan Gray) 

0.3 J Naylor, M Andujar, A Vaughn (IKF) Keaschall, McLain

0.2 Bichette, Baty, Wili Castro, Seager

0.1 Pederson (DHam)

0.0 B Matthews, B House (Betts)

-0.1 W Adames, Bohm, Yorke(Devers)

-0.2 E Suarez, Rooker, Hoskins, R Lewis

-0.3 Polanco, Vientos, Croneworth

-0.4 Yainer Diaz, E Tovar, J Bell (Story)

-0.6 T O'Neill, Rengifo & Ozuna

-0.9 Refsnyder

______________________

1.9 Cease

1.8 Joe Ryan

1.6 Lugo

1.5 Skubal, Woo (Harrison)

1.3 Keller (R Suarez)

1.2 Alcantara, N Martinez, T Bradley

1.1 M King

1.0 Gore, Imanaga, Wacha

0.7 Dustin May (mentioned but for other reasons) & Sonny Gray

0.6 F Valdez, Eovaldi & Newcomb

0.5 Abel, Drohan, S Baz

0.4 Painter, E Cab, Bassitt

0.3 Gallen, L Castillo & Matz

0.2 Flaherty, Lorenzen & Quintana

-0.2 Senga

-0.4 Singer & R Ray

-0.5 Fedde

-1.0 Littell

 

 

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

but here are the names I think were mentioned the most as possible Sox targets:

A lot of those names were mentioned, but mostly a mirage.  The ones talked about every day were mostly failures.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

A lot of those names were mentioned, but mostly a mirage.  The ones talked about every day were mostly failures.

Yes, and even Schwarber was highly unlikely to sign w BOS.

While I mentioned B Lowe a few times, he was hardly high on my suggestion list. (He was higher than Durbin, for sure, but so w as Polanco & ESuarez.)

I doubt the packages we gave for Durbin & Co plus Oviedo could have been combined to get B Lowe, but that might be the best "hindsight" what if from the winter.

1B Contreras

2B BLowe

SS Story/Mayer

3B Mayer/IKF

Would we be close to tied for the last WC slot with that trade and nothing else different?

Had we done that trade and Duran for Paredes...

1B Contreras/Paredes

2B B Lowe/Mayer

SS Mayer/Story

3B Paredes/Mayer

 

[moonslav59]

Had we signed 2 from Alonso, Bregman & Bichette and not traded for Contreras, would we be much better off?

I'm assuming we could still afford Suarez and Gray, which is a big assumption.

In reality, even keeping Contreras, Suarez, Gray AND signing Bichette AND Bregman would probably have added 1-2 wins, while forcing JH to spend way more over the next 5 years- an even bigger assumption.

Sure, the team looks way better on paper, but with the 2026 results, so far... MEH!

 

[vegasbob]

10 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm turning into Bill Freaking Parcells...all that seems important to me anymore is the team's W-L record.

When will the analysts finally recognize that ultimate statistic, the only one that actually matters if a team is playing for a championship.

[Oscars]

Based on the upcoming schedule, with 7 teams in the top 10 in ERA, excluding some miraculous turnaround in the hitting, in a months time this season will be well and truly over.

[Old Red]

The Portland SeaDogs theme song to a catchy tune is baseball the way it should be. On the other hand the Red Sox to the same tune is the way baseball shouldn’t be.

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

And that supports my idea that Betts wanted out.  I think that too many fans think that Boston is the ultimate BB destination.  That was true once upon a time (with NYY), but those days are long past.

I see absolutely nothing wrong with the idea that Betts took a look at the same thing I (and many others) looked.  A mediocre team, with an already expensive payroll, with no help coming from the farm, and decided he didn't want to spend a large part of his career watching the RS rebuild.

Betts wanted fair market value. Sox didn't want to give it to him. Can't blame Betts for wanting 350M+. Sox wouldn't even get to 300! 

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, vegasbob said:

When will the analysts finally recognize that ultimate statistic, the only one that actually matters if a team is playing for a championship.

The Geeks, and Nerds have completely taken over, and I don’t know if they ever will be put back in the bottle anytime soon. The Cleveland Cavaliers coach said as his team was down 3-0, and in the process of getting swept by the NY Knicks that analytically they were winning the series. 🤭🙈. That is Geeks, and Nerds as bad as it gets, and as Geeky, and Nerdy as it gets.

[mvp 78]

20 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Why would Mookie lie that he and his wife were house-shopping in the Boston area when the trade went down?

Why would Rice lie and said Mookie immediately told him via phone call that Boston was where he wanted to be when the trade went down?

People just want to feel better about the Red Sox and believe that Mookie didn't want to be here. It helps them reconcile with Mookie being gone. They believe there was no chance of him staying. However, if Henry just put down the right contract, he'd still be here. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Oscars said:

Based on the upcoming schedule, with 7 teams in the top 10 in ERA, excluding some miraculous turnaround in the hitting, in a months time this season will be well and truly over.

6 hours ago, Oscars said:

Based on the upcoming schedule, with 7 teams in the top 10 in ERA, excluding some miraculous turnaround in the hitting, in a months time this season will be well and truly over.

Huh? (Did I misunderstand your point?)

Best records in MLB and ERA Ranks

13 teams above .500

1. ATL 1st

2. TBR 5th

3. LAD 2nd

4. MIL 4th

5. NYY 3rd

6. SDP 11th

7. CLE 6th

8. STL 21st

9. AZ 17th

10. CHC 16th

11. PIT 10th

12. CWS  24th

13. WSH 26th

Now, ERA- has several teams with bad records in the top 15, but none in top 5...

6. BOS 22-30

8. TEX 24-29

10. SEA 26-29

11. DET 21-33

12. TOR 25-29

13. KCR 22-32

15. PHI 27-27

Top Offenses by OPS

.750+ LAD, ATL, NYY

.730-.749 WSN

.720-.729 HOU, TBR, Athletics, CHC, CWS

.708-.719 AZ, PIT, MIN

8 teams are between .688 and .707

The Sox are 25th at .682 (PHI, SFG, TOR, SDP & NYM are worse)

Look at the money spent by these bottom 6 teams!

 

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Geeks, and Nerds have completely taken over, and I don’t know if they ever will be put back in the bottle anytime soon. The Cleveland Cavaliers coach said as his team was down 3-0, and in the process of getting swept by the NY Knicks that analytically they were winning the series. 🤭🙈. That is Geeks, and Nerds as bad as it gets, and as Geeky, and Nerdy as it gets.

Seriously, that coach made himself an all-time joke with those statements.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Betts wanted fair market value. Sox didn't want to give it to him. Can't blame Betts for wanting 350M+. Sox wouldn't even get to 300! 

He got $306.7/12 (CBT) from the Dodgers.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

He got $306.7/12 (CBT) from the Dodgers.

Cool. Do you think Mookie cares about the CBT or his cash? 

Mookie Betts signed a 12 year, $365,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, including $65,000,000 signing bonus, $365,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $30,416,667.

[Tedballgame]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know several of us suggested signing Schwaber and some other players off to a good start, but here are the names I think were mentioned the most as possible Sox targets:

fWAR

2.2 Brandon Lowe

2.0 Willson Contreras (not mentioned much until we got him)

1.9 Nico Hoerner

1.8 CJ Abrams & Ryan Jeffer (who I mentioned several times as a DH/2nd C)

1.7 Murakami

1.6 Schwarber

1.5 Yandy Diaz

1.2 K Marte, Z Neto, Nolan Arenado, E Tovar, Chisholm & Teoscar

1.0  D Swanson (Kyle Tucker- "not a fit")

0.9 Paredes, B Stott

0.8 Bregman, Okamoto &  Rushing

0.7 N Lowe

0.6 Donovan, O'Hearn & Chapman

0.5 Acuna, Conforto, G Torres

0.4 Realmuto, (Tristan Gray) 

0.3 J Naylor, M Andujar, A Vaughn (IKF) Keaschall, McLain

0.2 Bichette, Baty, Wili Castro, Seager

0.1 Pederson (DHam)

0.0 B Matthews, B House (Betts)

-0.1 W Adames, Bohm, Yorke(Devers)

-0.2 E Suarez, Rooker, Hoskins, R Lewis

-0.3 Polanco, Vientos, Croneworth

-0.4 Yainer Diaz, E Tovar, J Bell (Story)

-0.6 T O'Neill, Rengifo & Ozuna

-0.9 Refsnyder

______________________

1.9 Cease

1.8 Joe Ryan

1.6 Lugo

1.5 Skubal, Woo (Harrison)

1.3 Keller (R Suarez)

1.2 Alcantara, N Martinez, T Bradley

1.1 M King

1.0 Gore, Imanaga, Wacha

0.7 Dustin May (mentioned but for other reasons) & Sonny Gray

0.6 F Valdez, Eovaldi & Newcomb

0.5 Abel, Drohan, S Baz

0.4 Painter, E Cab, Bassitt

0.3 Gallen, L Castillo & Matz

0.2 Flaherty, Lorenzen & Quintana

-0.2 Senga

-0.4 Singer & R Ray

-0.5 Fedde

-1.0 Littell

 

 

I wanted to sign Schwarber when they had him already on the team. That should have been a no brainer.

[Old Red]

A question on the airwaves today is how many have bought into the Illusion of Contention with the wildcard. Have you changed your mind from Friday morning to Monday morning?🤔

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

A question on the airwaves today is how many have bought into the Illusion of Contention with the wildcard. Have you changed your mind from Friday morning to Monday morning?🤔

Im not sure if illusion is the right word.  I think that the increase of the chances of mediocre teams is real.  Maybe not all the way up to championship contender (thinking a mediocre team sneaking into the third wild card seed) but it does drastically increase their chances at every step.

I think that it rewards settling on an incomplete team, but I do think that such incomplete teams really do have a significantly higher chance of making playoffs and maybe even winning rounds.

[drewski6]

It is also still 6/15 AL teams, right. Which doesnt feel out of line.  I think the issue is the lack of parity/competitiveness of so many clubs.  6/15 becomes 6/9 if the bottom 6 teams are hardly trying.  

Baseball badly needs like a cap floor or something.

[drewski6]

I like the league is trying to do the things that I recently learned from MVP that the league is doing.  Like how the juicy penalty money is awarded to teams that have their attendance moving in the right direction.  This rewards trying to win games, and I think we need even more of this in baseball.  Sometimes it feels like teams arent racing to have the best team, they are racing to dump money