A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

Other than injuries it was good April.

 

Abreu is a keeper. Good plate discipline will sustain his offensive output.

 

Duran is playing better defense. He will never be Rafaela in center but his athleticism will carry him. I think he is able to figure things out offensively. He won't stay down gor long stretches.

 

Wong has established himself as a legit major league catcher.

 

Rafaela has ways to go offensively but once he figures out strike zone he'll be fine.

 

I look forward to Grissom playing in May.

 

Will he join this young positional players of the future?

 

On Rafaela, it's not even him knowing the strike zone. He has a pretty bad whiff rate in and out of the zone. He's never been a guy to take a pitch, just a guy who has punished pitches that he can handle. He'll always be up there hacking. If he can reduce the in zone whiffs, he'd be better off.

 

The chase rate is impacting his overall exit velo and barrel rate, but I don't think that's going to get better. Just don't let pitchers beat you middle/middle!

[mvp 78]

Fair point. But how do we know the staff emphasis on less 4-seamers and more sweeping slurvey pitches didn't over-stress the arm joints of the four starters who've already missed some starts?

 

Bailey is definitely the star signing of the winter -- so far. But when Bellhorn calls him an alchemist, I worry of the infamous chemist who mixed a popular green paint that rich families used on their bedroom walls in the Victorian era. Suddenly, people fell ill and started dying, as if poisoned... until investigators found one of the ingredients they were breathing: arsenic.

 

Whitlock has always been an injury risk with or without Bailey.

 

Giolito was injured almost on day 1, which leads me to believe it's not a Bailey issue.

 

Bello's injury was lat tightness which was either precautionary or not that serious. It's also not a typical injury that we've seen with this max effort push.

 

Pivetta was the worrisome one. However, he had already adjusted his pitch mix last year when he added the sweeper. Did the damage start then?

[moonslav59]

Whitlock has always been an injury risk with or without Bailey.

 

Giolito was injured almost on day 1, which leads me to believe it's not a Bailey issue.

 

Bello's injury was lat tightness which was either precautionary or not that serious. It's also not a typical injury that we've seen with this max effort push.

 

Pivetta was the worrisome one. However, he had already adjusted his pitch mix last year when he added the sweeper. Did the damage start then?

 

Agreed.

 

The emphasis on throwing more breaking balls and increasing spin rates started before Bailey got here and is near league wide, if not totally league wide, by now.

 

You have to wonder why the 4 seemer was not deemphasized years ago, but sometimes change is slow.

 

I happen to think pitchers trying to increase spin rates, while still throwing just as hard, if not harder is a significant reason for increased injuries to pitchers.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agreed.

 

The emphasis on throwing more breaking balls and increasing spin rates started before Bailey got here and is near league wide, if not totally league wide, by now.

 

You have to wonder why the 4 seemer was not deemphasized years ago, but sometimes change is slow.

 

I happen to think pitchers trying to increase spin rates, while still throwing just as hard, if not harder is a significant reason for increased injuries to pitchers.

 

 

The rate of rotation injuries in Boston before May 1 should be a major concern. Even if it's not partially a risk in Bailey's plan, the next logical step is an overhaul in organizational training for young pitchers. Maybe Kyle Boddy from Driveline, with its state of the art professional ballplayer training program, has already begun to implement that...

[moonslav59]

The rate of rotation injuries in Boston before May 1 should be a major concern. Even if it's not partially a risk in Bailey's plan, the next logical step is an overhaul in organizational training for young pitchers. Maybe Kyle Boddy from Driveline, with its state of the art professional ballplayer training program, has already begun to implement that...

 

I hope we figure it out before other teams do.

[mvp 78]

The rate of rotation injuries in Boston before May 1 should be a major concern. Even if it's not partially a risk in Bailey's plan, the next logical step is an overhaul in organizational training for young pitchers. Maybe Kyle Boddy from Driveline, with its state of the art professional ballplayer training program, has already begun to implement that...

 

Places like Driveline are what's injuring pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Places like Driveline are what's injuring pitchers.

 

Since 2014?

[Duran Is The Man]

Thanks, but I think 6 teams would be nuts for not taking him sooner. Edited May 1, 2024 by ****THEYANKEES

[Dipre]

Since 2014?

 

That's around where max effort/max velocity really came into the MLB forefront

[Bellhorn04]

That's around where max effort/max velocity really came into the MLB forefront

 

And now there's no way to put the genie's toothpaste back in the horse.

[notin]

And now there's no way to put the genie's toothpaste back in the horse.

 

You’ve been around mvp78 too long…

[notin]

Red Sox acquired INF Zack Short from the Mets and are reportedly going to sign 1b Dom Smith once he opts out.

 

So full 40 man with no new pitchers?

[Bellhorn04]

You’ve been around mvp78 too long…

 

I've been around talksox too long...

[moonslav59]

Red Sox acquired INF Zack Short from the Mets and are reportedly going to sign 1b Dom Smith once he opts out.

 

So full 40 man with no new pitchers?

 

So, they get an infielder, just like you wanted!

[mvp 78]

I've been around talksox too long...

 

There's much less Star Trek talk now.

[mvp 78]

@BOSSportsGordo

It’s a big league contract for Dom Smith in Boston, per @ByRobertMurray.

 

Possible platoon situation with Garrett Cooper. Also definitely wondering about Yoshida’s status with his hand injury.

[moonslav59]

@BOSSportsGordo

It’s a big league contract for Dom Smith in Boston, per @ByRobertMurray.

 

Possible platoon situation with Garrett Cooper. Also definitely wondering about Yoshida’s status with his hand injury.

 

1Bman Mike Ford might be available (.902 v LHPs, career.)

[moonslav59]

@BOSSportsGordo

It’s a big league contract for Dom Smith in Boston, per @ByRobertMurray.

 

Possible platoon situation with Garrett Cooper. Also definitely wondering about Yoshida’s status with his hand injury.

 

This guy had some great numbers from 2019-2020, but less than 200 PAs in both of those seasons:

 

.299 21 67 in 396 PAs

.366 OBP

.571 SLG

.937 OPS

 

Projected to 650 PAs:

.299 36 116

 

Since then...

.243 23 121 in 1231 PAs

.311 OBP

.355 SLG

.666 OPS

(about 11 Hrs per 650)

[Old Red]

@BOSSportsGordo

It’s a big league contract for Dom Smith in Boston, per @ByRobertMurray.

 

Possible platoon situation with Garrett Cooper. Also definitely wondering about Yoshida’s status with his hand injury.

 

So Brez has now gone out, and gotten 2 1B. Once again Moon kept saying this kind of thing couldn’t be done this time of year when he was trying to cover for Bloom’s inadequacies when Bloom did nothing 2 years ago when Boston was in need of 1B help. Well I guess you could call Franchy Strange Glove something.🤭🙈🤮

[moonslav59]

Red Sox acquired INF Zack Short from the Mets and are reportedly going to sign 1b Dom Smith once he opts out.

 

So full 40 man with no new pitchers?

 

Zack Short has a pretty small MLB sample size. His D numbers:

 

+1.0 dWAR (all positions combined)

 

DRS/UZR

-2 3B (-16.3)

0 SS (-3.3)

+5 2B (+1.8)

[mvp 78]

1Bman Mike Ford might be available (.902 v LHPs, career.)

 

Cooper is already a RHB. How many 1B are they going to bring in?

[moonslav59]

Cooper is already a RHB. How many 1B are they going to bring in?

 

I'm thinking they might like him more than Cooper, and Cooper got hurt in his first game- how badly I don't know.

 

We could also DFA RH'd Dalbec for Ford, but Ford will want a MLB slot.

[mvp 78]

This guy had some great numbers from 2019-2020, but less than 200 PAs in both of those seasons:

 

.299 21 67 in 396 PAs

.366 OBP

.571 SLG

.937 OPS

 

Projected to 650 PAs:

.299 36 116

 

Since then...

.243 23 121 in 1231 PAs

.311 OBP

.355 SLG

.666 OPS

(about 11 Hrs per 650)

 

Smith was mentioned last season for the Sox. It's the epitome of an underwhelming acquisition. He's likely now just left handed Abraham Almonte.

[notin]

So Brez has now gone out, and gotten 2 1B. Once again Moon kept saying this kind of thing couldn’t be done this time of year when he was trying to cover for Bloom’s inadequacies when Bloom did nothing 2 years ago when Boston was in need of 1B help. Well I guess you could call Franchy Strange Glove something.

 

Well, I wouldn’t get too excited with my bullying. Is Dominic Smith really any better than Franchy Cordero?

[notin]

Smith was mentioned last season for the Sox. It's the epitome of an underwhelming acquisition. He's likely now just left handed Abraham Almonte.

 

Not true. Almonte can provide league average outfield defense…

[Hugh2]

I just realized you don't hear anyone talk about how

 

Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Marchus Stroman, or Sonny Gray are doing.

[mvp 78]

Well, I wouldn’t get too excited with my bullying. Is Dominic Smith really any better than Franchy Cordero?

 

Yes, but you have to think about it.

[mvp 78]

Not true. Almonte can provide league average outfield defense…

 

Well, let's hope they don't put Smith in the OF.

[Hugh2]

Sox are going to try and piece together a first baseman, Smith/Cooper might actually end up making a nice platoon there. Not great, but certainly light years better than Bobby bombing.

[notin]

Yes, but you have to think about it.

 

I’m not even sold that he is.

 

Both hit roughly the same.

 

Neither plays 1b very well.

 

Franchy is the better defensive outfielder, but that doesn’t say much.

 

Ummmmm …. Franchy is taller?

 

It’s an uninspiring acquisition, but credit Breslow for doing what he can…