A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

I'll bet. I took a couple of business trips to Houston and found out they do the same thing in hot weather that Montreal does in cold weather--facilitate walking indoors.

 

They have an extensive tunnel system under downtown, so workers can walk to restaurants or whatever, without going outside.

[notin]

 

Kavadas is superfluous. He can't platoon with Casas or the starting DH. He can't be moved to any other position.

 

He can be sold for parts...

[Hugh2]

Nooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Imagine how crazy this board is going to go when they draft a position player in the first round but still spend significantly more $$$ on pitching.

[mvp 78]

Imagine how crazy this board is going to go when they draft a position player in the first round but still spend significantly more $$$ on pitching.

 

I've heard this draft is very top heavy with talent (first 18 picks or so) and then falls off. They should take best available and then just grab a couple high octane HS arms. Sox have a good track record of taking HS arms: Groome, Ball, Owens, Scherff, Kopech, Buttrey.

[Hugh2]

I've heard this draft is very top heavy with talent (first 18 picks or so) and then falls off. They should take best available and then just grab a couple high octane HS arms. Sox have a good track record of taking HS arms: Groome, Ball, Owens, Scherff, Kopech, Buttrey.

 

 

To be fair, at one point you could be Houck in that group. And I think Kopech could be excluded as well.

[mvp 78]

To be fair, at one point you could be Houck in that group. And I think Kopech could be excluded as well.

 

Only if the Sox had taken him after HS. He was a drafted after his junior year at Missouri.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've heard this draft is very top heavy with talent (first 18 picks or so) and then falls off. They should take best available and then just grab a couple high octane HS arms. Sox have a good track record of taking HS arms: Groome, Ball, Owens, Scherff, Kopech, Buttrey.

 

Breslow hired Kyle Buddy, the founder of Driveline Baseball. The Driveline Academy trains ballplayers on travel teams from age 9 through 18. Buddy may have an idea which players there are the best prospects.

[mvp 78]

Breslow hired Kyle Buddy, the founder of Driveline Baseball. The Driveline Academy trains ballplayers on travel teams from age 9 through 18. Buddy may have an idea which players there are the best prospects.

 

Kyle BODDY

[moonslav59]

Imagine how crazy this board is going to go when they draft a position player in the first round but still spend significantly more $$$ on pitching.

 

I don't bet anymore, but I'd bet we draft a position player, first. Maybe we draft someone who will take less money, round one, so we can draft and sign pitchers in later rounds, but that would be viewed as skimpy on pitching, again, by some.

 

 

How good are our international scouts and draft decision makers on pitching? I'm not so sure just signing more will translate to better system pitching.

 

Over 100K bonuses

2024: Chansol Lee, Adam Bates, Jesus Garcia

2023: Willian Colmenares

2022: J. Paez (shows some promise & ranked 48th), Alvaro Mejias, JC Reyes, Angel Lopez, Y Burnet

2019: CJ Liu, N Cruz, C Ruiz, F Hernandez

(Wikelman was one from 2018)

 

[Hugh2]

I don't bet anymore, but I'd bet we draft a position player, first. Maybe we draft someone who will take less money, round one, so we can draft and sign pitchers in later rounds, but that would be viewed as skimpy on pitching, again, by some.

 

 

How good are our international scouts and draft decision makers on pitching? I'm not so sure just signing more will translate to better system pitching.

 

Over 100K bonuses

2024: Chansol Lee, Adam Bates, Jesus Garcia

2023: Willian Colmenares

2022: J. Paez (shows some promise & ranked 48th), Alvaro Mejias, JC Reyes, Angel Lopez, Y Burnet

2019: CJ Liu, N Cruz, C Ruiz, F Hernandez

(Wikelman was one from 2018)

 

 

How many pitching bonuses over 500K have we given out over the past 10 years? both in the draft and IFA, it's not many, just 1-2 I BELIEVE.

 

saving 500K on the first pick and tossing around 4 million dollars or so with you next 3 picks is a good strategy, especially when you consider how risky pitching is. Lets put 3 eggs in the baseket not 1.

 

Some will complain, you will always find someone to complain about something no matter what happens. I doubt the Sox care about that.

[notin]

Imagine how crazy this board is going to go when they draft a position player in the first round but still spend significantly more $$$ on pitching.

 

I don't care whio they draft in the first round, as long as they think that is the best player available. Drafting for position is probably the fastest way to ruin your draft.

 

Any pitcher they draft could easily be years away from making an impact. Better off bulking up the farm system as best you can with blue chip prospects and pursuing trades for pitchers already more established, even if they are only established in the upper minors...

[notin]

How many pitching bonuses over 500K have we given out over the past 10 years? both in the draft and IFA, it's not many, just 1-2 I BELIEVE.

 

saving 500K on the first pick and tossing around 4 million dollars or so with you next 3 picks is a good strategy, especially when you consider how risky pitching is. Lets put 3 eggs in the baseket not 1.

 

Some will complain, you will always find someone to complain about something no matter what happens. I doubt the Sox care about that.

 

 

 

In the draft alone, they have given out 5 since giving Tanner Houck $2.6mill in 2017.

 

 

The draftees the Sox have given out $500K+ bonuses to are Durbin Feltman, Elmer Rodriguez, Ryan Zeferjahn, Dalton Rogers, and Matt Duffy.

 

None of these bonuses exceeded $700K. In fact, only Dalton Rogers exceeded $600K. If you had just aimed a little higher with your barrier, the numbers would have dropped off rapidly.

 

 

If we go back the full ten years, you can add Jay Groome ($3.2mill), Shaun Anderson, Michael Kopech ($1.3mill) and Jared Cosart to the 6 mentioned above...

Edited April 30, 2024 by notin

[notin]

They are clearly not in any rush to promote anyone from Worcester.

 

Valdez is likely demoted today once they officially activate Grissom. Hamilton will probably be demoted when Gonzalez is activated.

 

Cooper is really a bland journeyman, but will probably be the primary stopgap 1B until Casas returns or he plays himself out of the position. And given the leash Dalbec had with the role, that could be a while even if he struggles.

 

As for those last two 40 man roster spots, most likely they are monitoring the waiver wire for arms. I suppose they could claim Aaron Hicks and become the next team in line to realize this guy is just not going to ever play up to his potential. Or see who Houston DFAs today when they clear a spot for Joey Loperfido. (The Astros have a few borderline pitchers like Dylan Coleman, Blair Henley, Joel Kuhnel and Parker Mushinski that Breslow might like more than Houston does. But I suspect the Stros DFA INF Trey Cabbage, who is far less interesting beyond his cool name.)

 

Kuhnel DFAd.

 

He looks like he deserved it. Doubtful Breslow has any interest.

[moonslav59]

In the draft alone, they have given out 5 since giving Tanner Houck $2.6mill in 2017.

 

 

The draftees the Sox have given out $500K+ bonuses to are Durbin Feltman, Elmer Rodriguez, Ryan Zeferjahn, Dalton Rogers, and Matt Duffy.

 

None of these bonuses exceeded $700K. In fact, only Dalton Rogers exceeded $600K. If you had just aimed a little higher with your barrier, the numbers would have dropped off rapidly.

 

 

If we go back the full ten years, you can add Jay Groome ($3.2mill), Shaun Anderson, Michael Kopech ($1.3mill) and Jared Cosart to the 6 mentioned above...

 

We've also signed many Japanese pitchers to hefty deals and fees, but that is not really prospects.

 

We have spent way more on everyday players, but to me, they are often the "best player available," like you said, and that strategy is not a bad one.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kyle BODDY

 

First reference in Beyond the Monster article: "The club is hiring Kyle Buddy, the founder of Driveline Baseball, as a special advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow for the 2024 season."

 

Are they going to be pals or just workout together and land on the IL with the rest of the players?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Better off bulking up the farm system as best you can with blue chip prospects and pursuing trades for pitchers already more established, even if they are only established in the upper minors...

 

WE keep saying that, THEY keep saying that, but they have yet to do that in the entire Yale Bulldog CBO ERA.

[notin]

WE keep saying that, THEY keep saying that, but they have yet to do that in the entire Yale Bulldog CBO ERA.

 

Not true. They traded for Fitts, Sandlin, Winckowski, Slaten…

[Hugh2]

In the draft alone, they have given out 5 since giving Tanner Houck $2.6mill in 2017.

 

 

The draftees the Sox have given out $500K+ bonuses to are Durbin Feltman, Elmer Rodriguez, Ryan Zeferjahn, Dalton Rogers, and Matt Duffy.

 

None of these bonuses exceeded $700K. In fact, only Dalton Rogers exceeded $600K. If you had just aimed a little higher with your barrier, the numbers would have dropped off rapidly.

 

 

If we go back the full ten years, you can add Jay Groome ($3.2mill), Shaun Anderson, Michael Kopech ($1.3mill) and Jared Cosart to the 6 mentioned above...

 

Haha I meant to write $600k, thanks for pointing that out though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not true. They traded for Fitts, Sandlin, Winckowski, Slaten…

 

Your own words were "pitching already more established".... than Verdugo, Urias, Benintendi? Those guys were all big leaguers...

[notin]

Haha I meant to write $600k, thanks for pointing that out though.

 

At $600K, the only pitching draft picks paid more over the last decade are Jay Groome, Tanner Houck, Michael Kopech, Shaun Anderson, and some guy named Dalton Rogers.

 

No idea about IFA pitchers…

[notin]

Your own words were "pitching already more established".... than Verdugo, Urias, Benintendi? Those guys were all big leaguers...

 

I meant more established than draft picks. I did mention that could mean upper minors.

 

Sorry for the ambiguity…

[moonslav59]

I meant more established than draft picks. I did mention that could mean upper minors.

 

Sorry for the ambiguity…

 

Pivetta was kinda established (as a bad SP'er.)

[moonslav59]

Sox are now 1 GB in the loss column to the"mighty" Yanks.

2.5 up on TOR and 3.5 up on the Rays.

 

We are tied with DET at 17-13 for the 6th best AL record (-0.5 from KCR)

 

We are on a pace of 92 wins over 162 games as we near the 1/5th mark of the season.

 

Some games are still in progress, but we lead MLB in team ERA:

2.59 BOS

3.00 SEA

3.06 NYY

3.19 DET

3.21 KCR

 

We are 3rd in K/BB at 3.52 and WHIP at 1.11.

 

We are 8th in team OPS at .739 but just .001 from 2 teams at .740 (PHI & NYY)

We are 4th in HRs at 36.

We are 11th in Runs (7 behind 6th place and 8th behind 5th)

[Larry Cook]

Sox are now 1 GB in the loss column to the"mighty" Yanks.

2.5 up on TOR and 3.5 up on the Rays.

 

We are tied with DET at 17-13 for the 6th best AL record (-0.5 from KCR)

 

We are on a pace of 92 wins over 162 games as we near the 1/5th mark of the season.

 

Some games are still in progress, but we lead MLB in team ERA:

2.59 BOS

3.00 SEA

3.06 NYY

3.19 DET

3.21 KCR

 

We are 3rd in K/BB at 3.52 and WHIP at 1.11.

 

We are 8th in team OPS at .739 but just .001 from 2 teams at .740 (PHI & NYY)

We are 4th in HRs at 36.

We are 11th in Runs (7 behind 6th place and 8th behind 5th)

 

Bailey is emphasizing getting secondary pitches over for strikes and less 4 seam fastballs

[moonslav59]

So, I asked this question before the season started, with the intention of pointing out how our homegrown pitchers may not be as bad as the best of those who came up in the previous decade.

 

Bello, Houck, Crawford (I guess we could count Whitlock, Wink & Slaten, as they were prospects when acquired.)

 

The best from who came up from 2014 to 2023, not counting who is here, now:

 

ERod (if we count Whitlock, Slaten & Wink, he counts, too.)

Barnes

Workman

Kopech

Who am I missing?

 

Have we greatly improved?

 

Has your opinion changed much since Mid March 2024?

[moonslav59]

Bailey is emphasizing getting secondary pitches over for strikes and less 4 seam fastballs

 

It does seem like it is as simple as that.

[mvp 78]

First reference in Beyond the Monster article: "The club is hiring Kyle Buddy, the founder of Driveline Baseball, as a special advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow for the 2024 season."

 

Are they going to be pals or just workout together and land on the IL with the rest of the players?

 

Beyond the Monster is basically just us posting in long form.

[mvp 78]

At $600K, the only pitching draft picks paid more over the last decade are Jay Groome, Tanner Houck, Michael Kopech, Shaun Anderson, and some guy named Dalton Rogers.

 

No idea about IFA pitchers…

 

Dalton Rogers has not been a very good draft pick so far. He was really a reliever in college, so I'm unsure why they keep trying to have him start when he's been really bad at it.

[mvp 78]

Bailey is emphasizing getting secondary pitches over for strikes and less 4 seam fastballs

 

4 seamers are typically straight and easier to barrel. It's a good emphasis IMO.

[mvp 78]

So, I asked this question before the season started, with the intention of pointing out how our homegrown pitchers may not be as bad as the best of those who came up in the previous decade.

 

Bello, Houck, Crawford (I guess we could count Whitlock, Wink & Slaten, as they were prospects when acquired.)

 

The best from who came up from 2014 to 2023, not counting who is here, now:

 

ERod (if we count Whitlock, Slaten & Wink, he counts, too.)

Barnes

Workman

Kopech

Who am I missing?

 

Have we greatly improved?

 

Has your opinion changed much since Mid March 2024?

 

I mean, the Sox have done a TERRIBLE job drafting and developing pitchers for a long time. Aside from ERod (who spent much more time being developed by the Orioles TBF), the last successful starter that came up was Clay Buchholz was 2008. The Sox have finally found someone (Bailey) that can maximize the tweeners that they have drafted and traded for. I think there has been solid short term improvement, but we need to see this success over longer than one month and maybe less time spent on the IL too.

 

The pitching looked pretty good in Mid March, so I don't think my opinion has changed since then. I think we believed there'd be some sort of Bailey bump. I was expecting more out of Bello TBH.