A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

For me, Andrew Bailey and the Sox remarkable pitching numbers thus far brings to mind a Bugs Bunny reference that only notin might get:

 

"I don't know how ya's done it, but I know ya's done it."

[moonslav59]

I mean, the Sox have done a TERRIBLE job drafting and developing pitchers for a long time. Aside from ERod (who spent much more time being developed by the Orioles TBF), the last successful starter that came up was Clay Buchholz was 2008. The Sox have finally found someone (Bailey) that can maximize the tweeners that they have drafted and traded for. I think there has been solid short term improvement, but we need to see this success over longer than one month and maybe less time spent on the IL too.

 

The pitching looked pretty good in Mid March, so I don't think my opinion has changed since then. I think we believed there'd be some sort of Bailey bump. I was expecting more out of Bello TBH.

 

Agreed.

 

We have had a long stretch of not producing great or even very good SP'ers from Buch to maybe Houck's call ups.

 

Those call-up dates range from 8/17/07 to 9/15/20. That's a little over 13 years! That's not counting ERod, but even he was just one guy in a sea of misses.

 

If we don't count ERod, Whitlock, Wink or Slaten, I still see a very significant uptick from the very best SP'ers in that 13 year period to the 3 years starting with Houck:

 

Houck

Crawford

Bello

 

(Aquired as prospects: Whitlock, Wink, & Bernardino)

 

Granted, this does not look like the start of some positive trend, as our top pitchers on the farm are not all that promising, which might be an understatement, on my part. Some of our best young pitchers were traded for or acquired from another farm system:

 

Slaten

Fitts

Weissert

Gambrell

Kelly

Benitez

Sandlin

Penrod

Olivarez

Judice

 

(Criswell, Campbell & Pivetta were acquired early in their MLB careers)

 

Here are our current best pitching prospects who have been in only our system:

8. Gonzalez

10. Perales

21. Monegro

23. E R-C

24. Dobbins

28. Guerrero

29. Bastardo

31. Hoppe

34. Troye

37. Rogers

38. Cohen

39. Wehunt

40. Mata

 

 

[Nick]

Other than injuries it was good April.

 

Abreu is a keeper. Good plate discipline will sustain his offensive output.

 

Duran is playing better defense. He will never be Rafaela in center but his athleticism will carry him. I think he is able to figure things out offensively. He won't stay down gor long stretches.

 

Wong has established himself as a legit major league catcher.

 

Rafaela has ways to go offensively but once he figures out strike zone he'll be fine.

 

I look forward to Grissom playing in May.

 

Will he join this young positional players of the future?

[notin]

Dalton Rogers has not been a very good draft pick so far. He was really a reliever in college, so I'm unsure why they keep trying to have him start when he's been really bad at it.

 

Also confusing - why he’s our sixth highest paid pitching draft pick over the last decade…

[moonslav59]

For me, Andrew Bailey and the Sox remarkable pitching numbers thus far brings to mind a Bugs Bunny reference that only notin might get:

 

"I don't know how ya's done it, but I know ya's done it."

 

It does look like many of our pitchers are doing as well as ever.

 

Here are the comps from 2023 to 2024:

 

ERA+/FIP

 

2023> pitcher> 2024

108/4.54 Bello 138/4.06

114/3.83 Crawford 138/2.20

114/3.96 Pivetta 522/2.25

160/3.91 Winkpwski 120/3.44

92/4.43 Houck 155/2.02

89/4.27 Whitlock 215/3.33

199/2.44 Martin 77/4.13

188/3.66 Jansen 230/3.06

144/3.41 Bernardino 537/3.08

 

Some of these guys doing very well, have had some long stretches of doing well for parts or full seasons before 2024.

 

Houck

920/3.25 in 3 starts of 2020

133/2.58 in 2021

134/3.30 in 2022

(150/2.95 from 2020 to 2022 in 146 IP) That's pretty close to 2024.

 

Crawford:

3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP after his first 3 games of 2023. He's doing much better, now, but he had a nice stretch in 2023- pre-Bailey.

 

Bello

3.97 ERA/4.45 FIP after first 2 starts of '23

3.59/3.96 middle 19 GS of '23, which is better than 2024

 

Pivetta has had long stretches of very good pitching in each of the last 3 seasons.

 

Whitlock:

163 ERA+/3.07 FIP from 2021-2022 combined (152 IP), which is pretty close to 2024.

[notin]

Dalton Rogers has not been a very good draft pick so far. He was really a reliever in college, so I'm unsure why they keep trying to have him start when he's been really bad at it.

 

I will say one concern - this whole “keep trying to make him a starter when he’s clearly a reliever” is becoming a recurring theme…

[Bellhorn04]

I will say one concern - this whole “keep trying to make him a starter when he’s clearly a reliever” is becoming a recurring theme…

 

Seems to be working out with Houck and Crawford so far...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I will say one concern - this whole “keep trying to make him a starter when he’s clearly a reliever” is becoming a recurring theme…

 

Starters pitch to more batters, assuming they throw multiple innings. A five or six inning start equates to retiring up to 18 batters -- again, assuming a quality start with limited damage in between.

 

It's the main reason WAR mongers value starters so much more over relievers (who may only retire 3 batters a night, even when doing their jobs).

 

It's also why clubs always want to try stretching out effective pitchers; because it takes 27 outs to win a game... unless it rains or there are ghosts.

[moonslav59]

Other than injuries it was good April.

 

Abreu is a keeper. Good plate discipline will sustain his offensive output.

 

Duran is playing better defense. He will never be Rafaela in center but his athleticism will carry him. I think he is able to figure things out offensively. He won't stay down gor long stretches.

 

Wong has established himself as a legit major league catcher.

 

Rafaela has ways to go offensively but once he figures out strike zone he'll be fine.

 

I look forward to Grissom playing in May.

 

Will he join this young positional players of the future?

 

Nice summary.

 

I've also been impressed by Abreu's defense- not that it has been great, but it has been better than I expected, despite "kicking that ball around RF" in that game we lost.

 

I've been a believer in Rafaela's offense getting to an acceptable level, over time. I'm not sure it will be in 2024, but I think he will find a groove.

 

I'm getting more and more upbeat about our future, beyond 2024.

 

Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Abreu RF looks pretty solid, despite some unanswered issues. (Having Ref at #4 and Anthony banging on the door adds to my faith our OF should be fine.)

 

Casas 1B, Grissom 2B, Story SS and Devers 3B can be very solid, if they can stay healthy. (The infield depth is questionable, to say the least, but Mayer offers some promise.)

 

I've always viewed Wong and McGuire a bit higher than many. They both have done very well in this first 30 games of 2024, but both have had very nice stretches in previous seasons.

 

The DH position looks weak, but we have so many bad defensive hitters with promise on O, that I think we will end up being okay, there: Yoshida, Valdez, Hickey, Kavadas, Yorke, Refsnyder, Duran, if Antony wins an OF slot)

 

The pitching staff has some gaps, for sure, and martin/jansen will lose control, this winter. The first 30 days have helped solidify our confidence that a few can be capable rotation (Bello, Houck, Crawford) and pen (Slaten, Whitlock, Bernardino) pieces.

 

If we get to spend more, maybe we can fill out the pitching staff with good and healthy pitching. We also have Giolito, hendriks and others returning for 2025.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The pitching staff has some gaps, for sure, and martin/jansen will lose control, this winter. The first 30 days have helped solidify our confidence that a few can be capable rotation (Bello, Houck, Crawford) and pen (Slaten, Whitlock, Bernardino) pieces.

 

If we get to spend more, maybe we can fill out the pitching staff with good and healthy pitching. We also have Giolito, hendriks and others returning for 2025.

 

If Bello-Houck-Crawford can all produce entire quality seasons, this will indeed be the best homegrown class in over a decade. Hopefully, they can form a core staff, but with a ways to go before they equal the Lester-Buchholz-Papelbon era -- when each made multiple All-Star teams in Boston.

 

I'll remain skeptical about whether owners spend more on pitching -- especially if the young cheap guys do well, while their one big winter signing mends on the sidelines.

[moonslav59]

If Bello-Houck-Crawford can all produce entire quality seasons, this will indeed be the best homegrown class in over a decade. Hopefully, they can form a core staff, but with a ways to go before they equal the Lester-Buchholz-Papelbon era -- when each made multiple All-Star teams in Boston.

 

I'll remain skeptical about whether owners spend more on pitching -- especially if the young cheap guys do well, while their one big winter signing mends on the sidelines.

 

I hope they can go long (over 25-27 GS,) this year, but even if they give us 20-26 GS, they would still be the best in over a decade, unless they implode.

[notin]

Starters pitch to more batters, assuming they throw multiple innings. A five or six inning start equates to retiring up to 18 batters -- again, assuming a quality start with limited damage in between.

 

It's the main reason WAR mongers value starters so much more over relievers (who may only retire 3 batters a night, even when doing their jobs).

 

It's also why clubs always want to try stretching out effective pitchers; because it takes 27 outs to win a game... unless it rains or there are ghosts.

 

 

It’s not a question that starters are more valuable.

 

It’s just that when you have a pitcher who has only topped 73 IP once in his major and minor league career (and that resulted in surgery), and attempts to put him in larger roles keep injuring him, when do you decide the lesson has been learned?

[notin]

Seems to be working out with Houck and Crawford so far...

 

Was Crawford ever really a reliever? He made one relief appearance in the minors and a handful in MLB. But he’s really always been a starter…

[moonslav59]

It’s not a question that starters are more valuable.

 

It’s just that when you have a pitcher who has only topped 73 IP once in his major and minor league career (and that resulted in surgery), and attempts to put him in larger roles keep injuring him, when do you decide the lesson has been learned?

 

The continued skimping on adding quality AND durable SP'ers to the staff has forced the need to squeeze pitchers like Whitlock into a role they should not be in.

 

I wonder if "stretching out" Winckowski, this past winter and spring is part of the reason he is doing worse than 2023.

 

I've been fine with Houck as a starter, as long as we had longmen like Whitlock in the pen to come into the game in the 5th and 6th inning, when Houck has had trouble going beyond 18 batter. (Hopefully, he is over that trend.)

 

I also wanted Crawford in the pen, but he looks more and more like a quality starter.

 

The Gio injury really hurt, especially since our minor league depth was basically just Criswell & Anderson.

[Dipre]

There is no longer such a thing as a durable SP, unfortunately. They are all ticking time bombs.

[Duran Is The Man]

I've heard this draft is very top heavy with talent (first 18 picks or so) and then falls off. They should take best available and then just grab a couple high octane HS arms. Sox have a good track record of taking HS arms: Groome, Ball, Owens, Scherff, Kopech, Buttrey.

 

Hagen Smith (LHP) of the Arkansas Razorbacks. i'd love for the Sox to somehow land him.

[notin]

Hagen Smith (LHP) of the Arkansas Razorbacks. i'd love for the Sox to somehow land him.

 

Prospectlive.com has him going at number 7. They have the Sox taking ECU RHP Trey Yesavage at 12…

[moonslav59]

Was Crawford ever really a reliever? He made one relief appearance in the minors and a handful in MLB. But he’s really always been a starter…

 

Yes, but much like Whitlock only going over 73 IP, once in his whole career in the minors and majors, Crawford only went over 102 IP, once. That was way back in 2018 at the A-/A+ level. He's gone 88, 95 and 102 until 2023's 129 IP.

 

You have rightfully stated that RP'ers often have better numbers, but his are vastly different:

 

Career OPS Against

.592 RP (1.089 WHIP)

.720 SP (1.253 WHIP)

 

I'm glad they gave him a shot to start, this year. it's not always such an easy choice, but I agree with your take on Whitlock, especially with his injury history.

[moonslav59]

There is no longer such a thing as a durable SP, unfortunately. They are all ticking time bombs.

 

This is so true, these day.

[notin]

Yes, but much like Whitlock only going over 73 IP, once in his whole career in the minors and majors, Crawford only went over 102 IP, once. That was way back in 2018 at the A-/A+ level. He's gone 88, 95 and 102 until 2023's 129 IP.

 

You have rightfully stated that RP'ers often have better numbers, but his are vastly different:

 

Career OPS Against

.592 RP (1.089 WHIP)

.720 SP (1.253 WHIP)

 

I'm glad they gave him a shot to start, this year. it's not always such an easy choice, but I agree with your take on Whitlock, especially with his injury history.

 

 

But unlike Whitlock, Crawford didn’t have TJ after his career high…

[moonslav59]

But unlike Whitlock, Crawford didn’t have TJ after his career high…

 

Yes, I agree with your position.

 

Whitlock should never start another game, unless as a 2-3 IP "opener."

 

Starting Crawford and Houck was a good idea.

 

I don't think they should have "stretched out" Wink.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no longer such a thing as a durable SP, unfortunately. They are all ticking time bombs.

 

This is so true, these day.

 

It'd be interesting to see a list of starting pitchers who have pitched X (fill in a suitable number) of MLB innings without ever having TJ surgery or a single trip to the IL.

 

Must be a pretty slim list.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I agree with your position.

 

Whitlock should never start another game, unless as a 2-3 IP "opener."

 

Starting Crawford and Houck was a good idea.

 

I don't think they should have "stretched out" Wink.

 

At this point in time I'm not second-guessing the brain trust on any of this. We need to see how it all plays out. Whitlock is getting some more starts, that seems certain.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

The Gio injury really hurt, especially since our minor league depth was basically just Criswell & Anderson.

 

It is my goal to convince you to stop lamenting Giolito. There is absolutely no guarantee that he'd perform any better than he had the past two seasons. And if he didn't, the Sox wouldn't be in the playoffs after the first month. But if he didn't get hurt and continued to throw like in his recent past, we'd all be calling him the next Kluber and hammering Breslow.

 

The positive of Gio's injury is that it gave other younger pitchers an opportunity to flourish -- and they have.

[notin]

It is my goal to convince you to stop lamenting Giolito. There is absolutely no guarantee that he'd perform any better than he had the past two seasons. And if he didn't, the Sox wouldn't be in the playoffs after the first month. But if he didn't get hurt and continued to throw like in his recent past, we'd all be calling him the next Kluber and hammering Breslow.

 

The positive of Gio's injury is that it gave other younger pitchers an opportunity to flourish -- and they have.

 

Unless Gio’s replacement was Whitlock…

[Hugh2]

It is my goal to convince you to stop lamenting Giolito. There is absolutely no guarantee that he'd perform any better than he had the past two seasons. And if he didn't, the Sox wouldn't be in the playoffs after the first month. But if he didn't get hurt and continued to throw like in his recent past, we'd all be calling him the next Kluber and hammering Breslow.

 

The positive of Gio's injury is that it gave other younger pitchers an opportunity to flourish -- and they have.

 

IDK, Given what Bailey has done with this staff how can we not be at least a little curious to see what he could have done with Giolito????

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

IDK, Given what Bailey has done with this staff how can we not be at least a little curious to see what he could have done with Giolito????

 

Fair point. But how do we know the staff emphasis on less 4-seamers and more sweeping slurvey pitches didn't over-stress the arm joints of the four starters who've already missed some starts?

 

Bailey is definitely the star signing of the winter -- so far. But when Bellhorn calls him an alchemist, I worry of the infamous chemist who mixed a popular green paint that rich families used on their bedroom walls in the Victorian era. Suddenly, people fell ill and started dying, as if poisoned... until investigators found one of the ingredients they were breathing: arsenic.

[mvp 78]

Also confusing - why he’s our sixth highest paid pitching draft pick over the last decade…

 

That dang Hang 'Em Chaim!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

I will say one concern - this whole “keep trying to make him a starter when he’s clearly a reliever” is becoming a recurring theme…

 

Well, we mostly thought Houck and Crawford were inevitable relievers...

[moonslav59]

It is my goal to convince you to stop lamenting Giolito. There is absolutely no guarantee that he'd perform any better than he had the past two seasons. And if he didn't, the Sox wouldn't be in the playoffs after the first month. But if he didn't get hurt and continued to throw like in his recent past, we'd all be calling him the next Kluber and hammering Breslow.

 

The positive of Gio's injury is that it gave other younger pitchers an opportunity to flourish -- and they have.

 

I'm not assuming he'd be doing better than what we have, now. I did not like the signing.

 

What I did expect was that he'd start 30 games and give us 170+ IP. That would have kept Whitlock in the pen, and perhaps off the IL.

 

Yes, it's all speculative.