A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

Houck pitches, tonight. Chase Anderson has yet to be given the ball.

 

Only Joely has an ERA above 4.50.

 

Only Joely (13.50) and Campbell (4.50) have an ERA over 3.60 (Bello.)

 

All the other 8 pitchers who have seen action have ERAs at 1.80 or lower.

 

On the flip side, 7 of 11 batters have an OPS below .608.

5 of 11 at .500 or lower and 4 of 11 under .400 (Casas, Story, Duran & Abreu.)

 

Some surprises at positional OPS:

.912 LF

.812 C (1.071 McGuire/ .857 Wong, but RM had a Hit as a PH)

.741 RF

.706 3B

.647 CF

.607 DH

.500 2B

.399 SS

.243 1B

 

Joely is the only lefty on the staff--the other 12 are righties. I think that's why he is getting to the mound--3 times in 4 games. Cora wants to see what he can do. He no doubt also wants the front office to see.

[Maxbialystock]

ONE walk from the four starters -- throwing mostly offspeed pitches, as directed by the Bailey Blueprints (fast facts: Boston has thrown the least amount of four-seam fastballs so far; San Francisco's staff threw the least amount of four-seamers last year).

 

... wondering: how long will elbow tendons and ligaments last, snapping off slews of sweepers, sliders, curves, change-ups and two-seamers?

 

Ever the pessimist. But definitely provocative.

[Maxbialystock]

especially with the rule changes limiting the ways that postioning can be used to paper over limitations ... managers and coaching staffs have less power to hide poor infield defense

 

Agree.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe, I over emphasized defense, last season. I think I've always valued it more than most... maybe because I was not a good hitter, myself, and survived by playing plus D and running the bases well.

 

When a team is losing, like we were last year, bumbling on D is like the second kick in my balls.

 

Our D should be much better, this year, and it could even be above average (slightly.) That makes watching the game less stressful, but also fun to watch, when other things are going badly. We've already seen some great plays in just 4 games- maybe more than we saw in about 15-20 games, last year.

 

I love watching great D. What can I say?

 

I love watching great D too. Pitching and hitting are the heart of the game, but lack poetry. I mean, it's even cool when the first baseman grabs a short throw on the hop, when the catcher throws out a runner going to 2b or, better still, 3b. And double plays can run the gamut from routine to absolutely brilliant--but in every case they really make a difference. I hated when the Sox traded away Jose Iglesias in 2013, but they also won the WS after doing it--and beat Jose's new team, the Tigers, in the ALCS.

 

This year-- 4 games--we just might be seeing the practical value of good D. I think you were right to emphasize the absence of good D last year.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm pleasantly surprised so far, but it's just ONE series.

 

Absolutely true. But it's 100% of the season to date--and it's on the West Coast, which for past Sox teams was more daunting than Lewis and Clark's Corps of Discovery.

 

In the Montana State House is Charles Russell's absolutely brilliant painting, "Lewis and Clark Meeting the Guardians at Ross' Hole." In the foreground are several Guardians on horseback-- ferocious and dominant and bigger than life. Off to the right, dismounted and looking downright lilliputian, are Lewis and Clark--talking and hoping for the best. Exactly the right strategy because they were in fact in INDIAN COUNTRY.

 

Almost exactly 5 years ago the Sox had won the 2018 World Series the season before in probably their best season ever and returned their excellent rotation and even better lineup. They started with 11 games on the West Coast and limped back to Boston @ 3-8, from which they never really recovered and did not make it to the postseason.

[Nick]

Speaking of defense....I'm beginning to think we need to move from Devers at 3B. Let him just DH.

 

So we need a plus defender that can match Yoshida in offensive output. We're looking for Devers+Yoshida = Devers (DH) + 3B with better glove

 

I really don't see any 3B on our top 30 prospect list.

 

I wonder if Grissom can move to 3B. His bat to ball skill maybe comparable to that of Yoshida. That's assuming Grissom can become better defender than Devers.

 

What about Mayer moving to 3B?

Edited April 1, 2024 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ever the pessimist. But definitely provocative.

 

Why are you pessimistic? Or trying to provoke posters?

[Randy Red Sox]

Speaking of defense....I'm beginning to think we need to move from Devers at 3B. Let him just DH.

 

So we need a plus defender that can match Yoshida in offensive output. We're looking for Devers+Yoshida = Devers (DH) + 3B with better glove

 

I really don't see any 3B on our top 30 prospect list.

 

I wonder if Grissom can move to 3B. His bat to ball skill maybe comparable to that of Yoshida. That's assuming Grissom can become better defender than Devers.

 

What about Mayer moving to 3B?

 

Sox are NOT moving Devers off 3B at least for the next few years.

[Maxbialystock]

Why are you pessimistic? Or trying to provoke posters?

 

Meh. I go both ways because I'm a freaking fan. This past week I've run the gamut--or the gauntlet, take your pick.

 

Right now I'm up and looking forward to three in Oakland. A week ago I insisted the rotation was little more than relievers who were promoted because the good starters left town. Now I'm high on rotation, the bullpen, and the defense--and hopeful the offense will come around.

[Old Red]

Absolutely true. But it's 100% of the season to date--and it's on the West Coast, which for past Sox teams was more daunting than Lewis and Clark's Corps of Discovery.

 

In the Montana State House is Charles Russell's absolutely brilliant painting, "Lewis and Clark Meeting the Guardians at Ross' Hole." In the foreground are several Guardians on horseback-- ferocious and dominant and bigger than life. Off to the right, dismounted and looking downright lilliputian, are Lewis and Clark--talking and hoping for the best. Exactly the right strategy because they were in fact in INDIAN COUNTRY.

 

Almost exactly 5 years ago the Sox had won the 2018 World Series the season before in probably their best season ever and returned their excellent rotation and even better lineup. They started with 11 games on the West Coast and limped back to Boston @ 3-8, from which they never really recovered and did not make it to the postseason.

 

Are you comparing what happened on the Red Sox opening 2019 West Cost trip with this years? The 2019 A’s had the likes of Semien, Chapman, and Olson who all hit 30+ HR. Now the A’s are not much more than a minor league team. Outside of facing some good starting pitching in Seattle the A’s, and Angels aren’t good teams. Some were concerned before this trip even started about the horrible things that could happen, but I think opening up where they are is a good thing for them to get off to a good start not to mention better baseball weather.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Meh. I go both ways because I'm a freaking fan. This past week I've run the gamut--or the gauntlet, take your pick.

 

Right now I'm up and looking forward to three in Oakland. A week ago I insisted the rotation was little more than relievers who were promoted because the good starters left town. Now I'm high on rotation, the bullpen, and the defense--and hopeful the offense will come around.

 

Pitchers are bigger, stronger, faster than ever -- and who knows, maybe that's why there are more modern injuries, from such superhuman force blowing out elbows and shoulders.

 

On the same hand, Little Leaguers were always cautioned (or banned, back in the day) from throwing curves at a young age...

 

It does make sense there's less torque abuse nowadays for offspeed soft-tossers.

 

But 40 years ago? In the words of Steve Stone, on throwing over 50% curveballs in winning the 1980 Cy Young: "I knew it would ruin my arm. But one year of 25–7 is worth five of 15–15."

[vegasbob]

After seeing the pitching results in Seattle the past 4 games, it was interesting to see Peter Abraham's comments on the marked reduction in 4 seam fastballs being used by Boston, mimicing the same strategy in SF last year. Bailey may be making a real mark on the pitching staff. None of our guys are power pitchers anyway. So we will have to see if a heavy diet of breaki9ng balls and changeups interspersed with fewer heaters has an effect on these arms.

 

Who does call the pitches at this time ? Wong/McGuire per a game plan for each hitter or direct from the bench by Bailey ? I did see McGuire looking over that way quite a bit Sunday . Maybe it was fielder positioning or maybe pitch calling.

[moonslav59]

We do still throw fastballs- just not many 4 seamers.

 

It not like we stopped throwing FBs.

 

We are last in FB% at 27%, which is 8% less than the next team.

[moonslav59]

We are first in slider %, 5th in cutters, 25th in curveballs and 7th in change ups

[Bellhorn04]

Those numbers will change - Seattle is a fastball hitting team so the strategy was tailored accordingly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We are first in slider %, 5th in cutters, 25th in curveballs and 7th in change ups

 

"Sweeper, sweeper, sweeper," said the guinea pigs.

[moonslav59]

One time through the rotation, and one can only marvel at the performances and poise.

 

IP H ER BB K

6.0 3 0 0 10 Houck

6.0 3 0 1 7 Crawford

6.0 3 1 0 10 Pivetta

5.0 3 1 0 8 Whitlock

5.0 5 2 0 2 B Bello

 

Total:

28 IP

17 H

4 ER (1.29 ERA)

1 BB

37 K

Edited April 2, 2024 by moonslav59

[Hitch]

That was the worst defensive performance I've ever seen from a team. Bravo A's.

 

f***ing impressive.

[Nick]

1 BB in 28 innings blows my mind.....

[dannycater]

One time through the rotation, and one can only marvel at the performances and poise.

 

IP H ER BB K

6.0 3 0 0 10 Houck

6.0 3 0 1 7 Crawford

6.0 3 1 0 10 Pivetta

5.0 3 1 0 8 Whitlock

5.0 5 2 0 2 B Bello

 

Total:

28 IP

17 H

4 ER (1.29 ERA)

1 BB

27 K

 

Pretty incredible considering. Great pitching can solve a lot of things in a hurry. If the pen holds up, they will win more than lose.

[Bellhorn04]

One time through the rotation, and one can only marvel at the performances and poise.

 

IP H ER BB K

6.0 3 0 0 10 Houck

6.0 3 0 1 7 Crawford

6.0 3 1 0 10 Pivetta

5.0 3 1 0 8 Whitlock

5.0 5 2 0 2 B Bello

 

Total:

28 IP

17 H

4 ER (1.29 ERA)

1 BB

27 K

 

37 K, even better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The top 4 teams from Spring Training so far: Dodgers and Tigers are first place, Orioles the greatest second-place team ever... and the Red Sox.

 

Combined real record: 15-5.

 

Glad they could all sustain those good vibes and solid play since February that obviously don't mean nothing and never matter...

[Bellhorn04]

The top 4 teams from Spring Training so far: Dodgers and Tigers are first place, Orioles the greatest second-place team ever... and the Red Sox.

 

Combined real record: 15-5.

 

Glad they could all sustain those good vibes and solid play since February that obviously don't mean nothing and never matter...

 

You trying to make a case for correlation of spring record to real record? Better bring a stack o' numbers!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You trying to make a case for correlation of spring record to real record? Better bring a stack o' numbers!

 

I look at it more as a continuation of good play -- which to me makes more sense to aspire to than going through the motions in ST and then trying to push a button all of sudden when it counts.

 

And of course in ST some pitchers are trying new pitchers, batters trying new swings, and fielders transitioning to new positions. But isn't it better that the Sox rotation found new success in preparation as a springboard for the actual season?

 

Or as one poster put it, when Giolito went down: " The Sox still have five or six promising candidates for the starting rotation... I don't care if a guy gives me innings if he's serving up longballs. Now other pitchers will get an opportunity in those 180 innings... and maybe one of them will actually be good."

 

... or five?

[Bellhorn04]

Somewhat of a surprise that McGuire started 3 of the first 5, catching Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck.

[moonslav59]

37 K, even better.

 

Nice catch, thanks. 37K: 1 BB... WOW! (We saw some very nice ST'ing K:BB ratios, too.)

 

 

 

 

Note: our rotation has 4 homegrown SP'ers in it. (Pivetta came up w PHI and had 71 GS with them before the trade by Bloom.)

Edited April 2, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Somewhat of a surprise that McGuire started 3 of the first 5, catching Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck.

 

I'm wondering if Wong is banged up, somehow.

 

Usually Cora likes to match pitchers with specific catchers, so let's see what happens the second time through the rotation.

 

I would not mind seeing 81 GS, each. I think mixing and matching catchers has some advantages, but probably not enough to override the comfort zone specific ones can create. A sort or lefty-righty platoon might work, but we have seen reverse splits with our catchers.

[mvp 78]

Houck did not throw double digit K's in a start last season. He only had 2 starts where he didn't walk anyone. This would have been his best start last season.

 

According to Gamescore, these starts would have been Kutter, Whitlock and Pivetta's 3rd best start from 2023. They've looked good first time through.

 

The interview prior to last night's game with Andrew Bailey talked a bit about the importance of first pitch strikes and limiting walks.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm wondering if Wong is banged up, somehow.

 

Usually Cora likes to match pitchers with specific catchers, so let's see what happens the second time through the rotation.

 

I would not mind seeing 81 GS, each. I think mixing and matching catchers has some advantages, but probably not enough to override the comfort zone specific ones can create. A sort or lefty-righty platoon might work, but we have seen reverse splits with our catchers.

 

Quite possible that Bailey took a liking to McGuire, too.

 

Sure can't argue with the results so far.

[dannycater]

McGuire is today's Sandy Leon