A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

I could swear it was just last season when we all went round and round about whether Houck could ever get over the "3d time through the lineup" hump. As I recall, he did.

 

Last season, batters facing Houck for the third time in a game had a .937 OPS. Hitters facing him the second time had a .764 OPS, and those hitters had a .644 OPS on the first time through.

 

Most if not all pitchers have their OPS climb with each appearance, and for multiple reasons. Learning his pitches. Pitcher fatigue. Weaker hitters occasionally get pinched hit for.

 

But .937 is still pretty high…

[mvp 78]

Whitlock has a better repertoire, no question. But to me Houck is a battler. So I couldn't be happier that both are starting and that all 5 have done well in their first starts.

 

As I keep reminding everyone--ad nauseum--the 2019 Sox, fresh off the best season in Sox history, also started the season on the West Coast and went 3-8--and basically never recovered, at least not enough to even make the postseason.

 

Is Houck a battler because he can barely get through the second time in the order?

[mvp 78]

Yes, you keep repeating that, but one reason the Red Sox got off to a bad start was because Cora didn’t have the team ready to play especially the pitching staff, which he ADMITTED, and learned from that.

 

Also, Whitlock's pitching repertoire lends itself to being a starter ahead of Houck's one-two punch of a slider/sinker.

[mvp 78]

One of Casas' most similar batters through age 23 is Mark Teixeira, per B-R.com.

 

Fifteen years ago, Tex did get an 8 yr / $180mill ($22.5mill AAV) deal from the Yankees. By the time he got that deal, 29yo Teixeira was more established than Casas is, and had won multiple Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. More recently, Freddie Freeman, a clear future Hall of Famer, was only getting 6 year / $162mill contract ($27.7mill AAV). Freeman was 32 years old, but had a Gold Glove, multiple Silver Sluggers and an MVP under his belt.

 

These are among the largest contracts ever awards to first basemen. So yes, they really don't break the bank anymore. Casas has age on his side, but also has less hardware than Evan White (4 yr $24mill contract with Seattle, now considered a bust). I don't see Casas breaking the bank. A six year deal like the one above would buy out all his arb years plus first two of free agency and take him to age his age 30 season. He certainly could wait it out and make more money, but an early deal like this buys him plenty of security, but might be better if it was a year shorter and allowed him to reach free agency before his age 30 season. A 29yo free agent just has more earning power.

 

I would agree an extension like this, but maybe 5 years before the option probably makes more sense for both sides...

 

If they are only getting one extra year out of Casas, why bother win an extension since prices are relatively low for that position?

[Bellhorn04]

Let's see what Bailey can do for Houck?

[notin]

If they are only getting one extra year out of Casas, why bother win an extension since prices are relatively low for that position?

 

Control arb costs, which can exceed free agent prices for many players. Also you do need Casas to be amenable to any deal.

 

If you were in Casas’ position, do you sign a 6 year $11mill AAV extension that delays free agency for two years and has you finally reaching free agency at age 30? Or 31 if the option vests or gets picked up?

[mvp 78]

Pretty good laydown except for #5. Rays, ranked 27th, have proven beyond any doubt that you can in fact do more with less even though their system has yet to produce a WS winner. The Pirates, ranked 29th, right now are undefeated. Their payroll is $83M vs the Rays $98M.

 

The A's @ $62M are the one bonafide embarrassment. So much for Moneyball.

 

The Pirates also started off strong last year (20-9, 1st place on 4/30). From May 1 on, they played .421 ball. Only the Rockies had a worse overall record than that.

 

The tier is only a judge on their payroll, not play on the field. Otherwise, the Mets wouldn't be in the top 2!

[mvp 78]

Some interesting career comps:

 

Pitch 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100: RP & SP

.516>.653>.822>.830 Houck

.686>.605>.779>.923 Whitlock

 

AS SP: 1st PA, 2nd PA, 3rd PA

.566>.700>.949 Houck

.761>.660>>1.103 Whitlock

 

Wow, very interesting. I think we all weren't very impressed with Whitlock prior to 2024. This is pretty much the last hurrah. He pitched well in ST and has a new toy (BULLET SLIDER).

[mvp 78]

I could swear it was just last season when we all went round and round about whether Houck could ever get over the "3d time through the lineup" hump. As I recall, he did.

 

2023 3rd time through the order:

1.75 WHIP

936 OPSa

12.74 ERA

5.80 FIP

[mvp 78]

Let's see what Bailey can do for Houck?

 

It was JUST the A's, but him not throwing an BB's is a good sign IMO.

[mvp 78]

Control arb costs, which can exceed free agent prices for many players. Also you do need Casas to be amenable to any deal.

 

If you were in Casas’ position, do you sign a 6 year $11mill AAV extension that delays free agency for two years and has you finally reaching free agency at age 30? Or 31 if the option vests or gets picked up?

 

Pete Alonso:

ARB 1: 7.4

ARB 2: 14.5

ARB 3: 20.5

 

I don't see Casas getting to these amounts. If he does, great. It's a bigger risk that an extension is just overpaying him IMO.

[notin]

Pete Alonso:

ARB 1: 7.4

ARB 2: 14.5

ARB 3: 20.5

 

I don't see Casas getting to these amounts. If he does, great. It's a bigger risk that an extension is just overpaying him IMO.

 

Maybe he won’t get $42.4mil, but can he exceed $33mill?

[Hugh2]

The thing with Casas is, he strikes me as the kind of guy who is going to bet on himself, in otherwords it might be really hard to keep him away from going to free agency.

 

Obviously we want to see the Sox resign more of their homegrown talent, and they really need to do that. But even when you operate under that mentality you're still going to lose some guys to free agency, you can't resign everyone. Casas would likely sign a deal buying out free agent years under the perceived value that he thinks he can grow into over the next 6 years, he'd easily be worth it if he is that player, but it also means more risk up front for the Red Sox.

 

This is pure conjecture, it will be interesting to see if he's extended at some point.

[mvp 78]

Maybe he won’t get $42.4mil, but can he exceed $33mill?

 

I haven't decided yet.

[Hitch]

Yeah, I like Casas but there's an almost certainty among some that he's going to be great. I'm not against us waiting. He's got much to prove.

[moonslav59]

I could swear it was just last season when we all went round and round about whether Houck could ever get over the "3d time through the lineup" hump. As I recall, he did.

 

These days, many SP'ers just go 18 batters, if they are lucky.

 

It's fine, if you have a good pen with some good long men.

[moonslav59]

Pete Alonso:

ARB 1: 7.4

ARB 2: 14.5

ARB 3: 20.5

 

I don't see Casas getting to these amounts. If he does, great. It's a bigger risk that an extension is just overpaying him IMO.

 

With inflation, he probably will, assuming he does well.

[dgalehouse]

Bello, Houck, Crawford , Casas, Duran and Rafaela are all former Dombrowski selections and products of his " decimated " farm.

[moonslav59]

Bello, Houck, Crawford , Casas, Duran and Rafaela are all former Dombrowski selections and products of his " decimated " farm.

 

Some call it luck that he kept "the right guys." To me, that doesn't matter. The fact is he did pretty damn good with his farm passed on, and with the ones he traded away.

 

FYI: Bloom guys (many are still months to several years away from the bigs of flame outs.)

 

Prospects when acquired:

Whitlock, Wink, Abreu, Valdez, Slaten, Bernardino, Kelly, DHam

(Anthony, Mayer, Teel & others)

 

Non-prospects when acquired:

Pivetta, McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes

Jansen, MartinGio, Story, Yoshi

 

[notin]

Some call it luck that he kept "the right guys." To me, that doesn't matter. The fact is he did pretty damn good with his farm passed on, and with the ones he traded away.

 

FYI: Bloom guys (many are still months to several years away from the bigs of flame outs.)

 

Prospects when acquired:

Whitlock, Wink, Abreu, Valdez, Slaten, Bernardino, Kelly, DHam

(Anthony, Mayer, Teel & others)

 

Non-prospects when acquired:

Pivetta, McGuire, Refsnyder, Reyes

Jansen, MartinGio, Story, Yoshi

 

 

 

It really wasn’t “keeping the right guys”; none of those guys were there to keep…

[mvp 78]

Top 20 when DD left:

Casas

Mata

Groome - traded and hurt

Jimenez - released this offseason

Dalbec

Duran

Houck

Song

Chatham - traded to PHI, retired

Ward - rule 5, in AAA now

Zeferjahn

Ramirez - traded to CHC, has not pitched since 2021

Murphy

Lugo

Decker

Cannon - MiLB rule 5 to PHI, released to Indy ball

Bello

Flores - released, retired

Rafaela

Wilson - DFA'd, claimed by SEA, re-signed by Sox released again

[Dipre]

The Athletic had a pretty interesting piece today on the Red Sox and their revamped pitch selection, which has significantly lowered the amount of four-seamers thrown these first five games, which was a staple of Bailey's SFG teams. His philosophy is very different from last year's pitching roadmap, which had the Red Sox seventeenth in the league in percentage of four seamers (47%). Dude may be on to something here.

[cp176]

No, this is the website where Houck has established himself as a starting pitcher by shutting down a AAA lineup for six innings and therefore people need to ignore that he has never pitched more than 106 IP in MLB in a season in his career.

 

I still think Houck, like most pitchers, is better suited for the bullpen. But he is probably a better option for the rotation over any of the other pitchers the Sox have left...

 

wait was this a nerve being struck? I have always believed that Houck should start - just for the record.

[notin]

wait was this a nerve being struck? I have always believed that Houck should start - just for the record.

 

I am still not sold on him as a starter. I’m sold on him being a better option to start than any of the other available options. and he only has 2 years of service time, which helps.

 

But so far he’s never thrown that many IP at this level. If the Sox had a more reliable bullpen, it would help Houck out immensely.

 

Either way, this Oakland team is coming off a 50 win season and somehow managed to get even worse. They might not be the best barometer…

[notin]

Top 20 when DD left:

Casas

Mata

Groome - traded and hurt

Jimenez - released this offseason

Dalbec

Duran

Houck

Song

Chatham - traded to PHI, retired

Ward - rule 5, in AAA now

Zeferjahn

Ramirez - traded to CHC, has not pitched since 2021

Murphy

Lugo

Decker

Cannon - MiLB rule 5 to PHI, released to Indy ball

Bello

Flores - released, retired

Rafaela

Wilson - DFA'd, claimed by SEA, re-signed by Sox released again

 

 

But who were the top 20 DD inherited? That’s the farm he is accused of decimating…

[moonslav59]

It really wasn’t “keeping the right guys”; none of those guys were there to keep…

 

Huh?

 

All of DD's guys were there when he was here.

 

Casas was our #1 prospect when DD left: he was NOT traded. (In system for more than a year)

Dalbec was #5: maybe should have been traded by Bloom after 2021 (1+ yr)

Duran was #5. (1+ yr)

Houck was #6 and in the system for 2 yrs (was #6 at end of 2018)

Murphy, Bello, Rafaela...

 

I get the pont about some of these guys being so far away, it was hard to know who was good or not, but DD chose well, lucky or whatever.

 

Do you still think he emptied the farm?

 

(The Bloom list was added, so people know who were not DD guys.)

[moonslav59]

But who were the top 20 DD inherited? That’s the farm he is accused of decimating…

 

His guys were part of his farm, but I'll answer:

 

Prospects he kept: (Fall 2015)

2. Devers

5. Beni

8. Johnson

10. Marrero

11. Chavis

14. TBall

 

Others in the system but not yet ranked in 2015: Beeks, Rusney, G Bautista

 

ERod just graduated a month before he joined the Sox. Owens, too.

 

[moonslav59]

DD traded over 20 players, who were at one point a top 20 prospect. Many had dropped down, when traded, but many were still highly regarded. Almost all of the ones he traded underperformed, got hurt or just plain sucked. I guess, if you want, you can say he emptied the farm, but he ended up keeping the ones that have done better. Some were from Ben and some were his own.

 

Kept:

Devers

Houck

Duran

Bello

Crawford

Casas

Rafaela

 

The best performers he traded were:

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

 

Which list is better?

 

If you kept filling the farm as you emptied it, and kept the best ones you inherited, is that really emptying it?

[notin]

His guys were part of his farm, but I'll answer:

 

Prospects he kept: (Fall 2015)

2. Devers

5. Beni

8. Johnson

10. Marrero

11. Chavis

14. TBall

 

Others in the system but not yet ranked in 2015: Beeks, Rusney, G Bautista

 

ERod just graduated a month before he joined the Sox. Owens, too.

 

 

Not what was asked.

 

The talk was he decimated the highly-rated farm he inherited…

[Bellhorn04]

Not what was asked.

 

The talk was he decimated the highly-rated farm he inherited…

 

But baseball fans aren't always very precise with the terminology they use, either.

 

Dombrowski gets accused of leaving a mess behind that included a barren farm. There are two steps to rendering a farm barren, one is to sell all the crops and the other is to not replenish it. He did the former but not the latter.