A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

But baseball fans aren't always very precise with the terminology they use, either.

 

Dombrowski gets accused of leaving a mess behind that included a barren farm. There are two steps to rendering a farm barren, one is to sell all the crops and the other is to not replenish it. He did the former but not the latter.

 

DD traded from a farm that Ben had inherited.

 

Ben and DD both did a poor job IMO.

[notin]

DD traded from a farm that Ben had inherited.

 

Ben and DD both did a poor job IMO.

 

Ben’s drafting was much to be desired.

 

DD did draft/sign 5 major leaguers in his Boston tenure (Duran, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Rafaela, anyone else? I’m not counting Dalbec as a success story, although an argument does exist for it.). That’s not a bad amount for 4 years, but certainly not exemplary…

[notin]

But baseball fans aren't always very precise with the terminology they use, either.

 

Dombrowski gets accused of leaving a mess behind that included a barren farm. There are two steps to rendering a farm barren, one is to sell all the crops and the other is to not replenish it. He did the former but not the latter.

 

He did tear down the farm, but there was some replenishment. He did leave the Sox with a mess of bad contracts…

[Bellhorn04]

Ben’s drafting was much to be desired.

 

DD did draft/sign 5 major leaguers in his Boston tenure (Duran, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Rafaela, anyone else?

 

Casas, so 3 guys in the 2024 rotation and 3 in the starting lineup...

[mvp 78]

He did tear down the farm, but there was some replenishment. He did leave the Sox with a mess of bad contracts…

 

The farm was better when he took over than when he left. Ben did pretty bad. DD wasn’t much better.

[mvp 78]

Casas, so 3 guys in the 2024 rotation and 3 in the starting lineup...

 

Let’s check back in on Bloom in 2029.

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s check back in on Bloom in 2029.

 

Sorry, I'm too old now to be deliberately looking that far ahead.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe one simple way to compare the draft success ratios of the CBOs would be to list their successes and divide by the number of years. Theo 9 Ben 4 DD 4 Bloom 4. It's too early to be able to evaluate the last 2 though. What would be the criteria for successes? At least 10 WAR? Then you would have to give extra points for higher levels of WAR. Theo would obviously cash in big time on Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

Can anyone name the last Red Sox CBO before DD whose farm produced 3 guys in the Sox starting rotation at the same time? (I don't know the answer.)

[Larry Cook]

Can anyone name the last Red Sox CBO before DD whose farm produced 3 guys in the Sox starting rotation at the same time? (I don't know the answer.)

 

We had Clemens, hurst and oil can Boyd in the rotation and I think they were all drafted by the same GM.

[notin]

Casas, so 3 guys in the 2024 rotation and 3 in the starting lineup...

 

We’d be doing DD a favor to not give him credit for Dalbec…

[notin]

Can anyone name the last Red Sox CBO before DD whose farm produced 3 guys in the Sox starting rotation at the same time? (I don't know the answer.)

 

Dan Duquette in 1997 with Brian Rose, Jeff Suppan and Robinson Checo…

[Hugh2]

Ben’s drafting was much to be desired.

 

DD did draft/sign 5 major leaguers in his Boston tenure (Duran, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Rafaela, anyone else? I’m not counting Dalbec as a success story, although an argument does exist for it.). That’s not a bad amount for 4 years, but certainly not exemplary…

 

I can almost gurantee you DD never heard of any of those guys before they signed, other than Tanner Houck and as mentioned afterwards Tristan Casas. Giving him credit for those two is pretty good, but outside of your first pick, or the IFA guy you're giving 2 million to all those picks are left up to the scouting department.

[Bellhorn04]

We’d be doing DD a favor to not give him credit for Dalbec…

 

Just to be clear, the 3 in the starting lineup I referenced are Casas, Duran, and Rafaela. It would be 4 with Dalbec...

[Bellhorn04]

I can almost gurantee you DD never heard of any of those guys before they signed, other than Tanner Houck and as mentioned afterwards Tristan Casas. Giving him credit for those two is pretty good, but outside of your first pick, or the IFA guy you're giving 2 million to all those picks are left up to the scouting department.

 

Hugh, I know you know a lot more about this stuff than me, but how do you know the CBO knows nothing about the picks after the first one?

[Hugh2]

Hugh, I know you know a lot more about this stuff than me, but how do you know the CBO knows nothing about the picks after the first one?

 

I've listened to every Soxprospects podcasts, and a lot of Baseball America podcasts. It's a repeated theme, and also one echoed by many of their guests they've had whether it be the head of scouting or of other departments and Red Sox personal that they've interviewed in the past.

 

There's a lot of guys in the front office whose names we don't hear, from amateur to international scouting that are looking at these kids, building relationships with them etc etc etc. A guy like DD probably went out to watch Tanner Houck pitch because the Sox were likely (well obviously) thinking about taking him with their first pick. But after that, the picks are beneath their paygrade I suppose for lack of a better term.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks for that, Hugh.

 

Needless to say, for the average fan like me it keeps it simpler to assign credit and blame to the CBO for virtually all baseball moves during his tenure.

 

Which includes giving Epstein credit for Betts even though he may not have known much about a 5th round pick.

 

Like everything else in baseball, luck can be a pretty large factor.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for that, Hugh.

 

Needless to say, for the average fan like me it keeps it simpler to assign credit and blame to the CBO for virtually all baseball moves during his tenure.

 

Which includes giving Epstein credit for Betts even though he may not have known much about a 5th round pick.

 

Like everything else in baseball, luck can be a pretty large factor.

 

You had to bring up the shortstop currently leading the majors in hits, runs, homers, RBI, BB, Slugging and OPS?

 

Speier's book recounted that after being drafted, Mookie held out for a signing bonus of $750K (I think) and prepared to go to college, when at the last minute Epstein told his staff, "Give it to him."

[Bellhorn04]

Betts has a 1.4 fWAR in 8 games LOL

 

His defensive number is positive.

 

Pretty good player.

[notin]

I've listened to every Soxprospects podcasts, and a lot of Baseball America podcasts. It's a repeated theme, and also one echoed by many of their guests they've had whether it be the head of scouting or of other departments and Red Sox personal that they've interviewed in the past.

 

There's a lot of guys in the front office whose names we don't hear, from amateur to international scouting that are looking at these kids, building relationships with them etc etc etc. A guy like DD probably went out to watch Tanner Houck pitch because the Sox were likely (well obviously) thinking about taking him with their first pick. But after that, the picks are beneath their paygrade I suppose for lack of a better term.

 

I suppose a big reason is after the first round, the CBO doesn’t always know who will be available to him. Heck, he may not know it even for the first round…

[moonslav59]

Not what was asked.

 

The talk was he decimated the highly-rated farm he inherited…

 

My list shows the guys he inherited and kept. Just what you asked for.

 

I even provided a short list of those he trades and did more than squat.

 

I asked you what list was better.

 

Kept:

Devers

Houck

Duran

Bello

Crawford

Casas

Rafaela

 

The best performers he traded were:

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

 

Which list is better?

[moonslav59]

The farm was better when he took over than when he left. Ben did pretty bad. DD wasn’t much better.

 

Many of the guys DD traded, in hindsight, were over-rated. Trading them for very useful pieces worked out well.

 

While DD was trading away many prospects, he was adding better ones. I don't see how that can be viewed as tearing down or emptying.

 

No, he did not do a great job, especially when adding pitching prospects, but the terms "tear down" and "emptied" just don't make sense to me.

 

In hindsight, the guys DD kept did much better than the guys he traded, despite many of those traded being highly regarded, at the time.

[moonslav59]

I've listened to every Soxprospects podcasts, and a lot of Baseball America podcasts. It's a repeated theme, and also one echoed by many of their guests they've had whether it be the head of scouting or of other departments and Red Sox personal that they've interviewed in the past.

 

There's a lot of guys in the front office whose names we don't hear, from amateur to international scouting that are looking at these kids, building relationships with them etc etc etc. A guy like DD probably went out to watch Tanner Houck pitch because the Sox were likely (well obviously) thinking about taking him with their first pick. But after that, the picks are beneath their paygrade I suppose for lack of a better term.

 

The GM does make the final call on which prospects to trade or keep.

[Bellhorn04]

Many of the guys DD traded, in hindsight, were over-rated. Trading them for very useful pieces worked out well.

 

While DD was trading away many prospects, he was adding better ones. I don't see how that can be viewed as tearing down or emptying.

 

No, he did not do a great job, especially when adding pitching prospects, but the terms "tear down" and "emptied" just don't make sense to me.

 

In hindsight, the guys DD kept did much better than the guys he traded, despite many of those traded being highly regarded, at the time.

 

Seems simple enough to me.

[mvp 78]

Can anyone name the last Red Sox CBO before DD whose farm produced 3 guys in the Sox starting rotation at the same time? (I don't know the answer.)

 

Does Dice-K count as an IFA?

 

2009: Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, Tazawa

[mvp 78]

Many of the guys DD traded, in hindsight, were over-rated. Trading them for very useful pieces worked out well.

 

While DD was trading away many prospects, he was adding better ones. I don't see how that can be viewed as tearing down or emptying.

 

No, he did not do a great job, especially when adding pitching prospects, but the terms "tear down" and "emptied" just don't make sense to me.

 

In hindsight, the guys DD kept did much better than the guys he traded, despite many of those traded being highly regarded, at the time.

 

Overrated? Maybe. But there is risk with all prospects. Not every prospect works out. That's exactly why the current strategy of the Sox is faulty.

 

The problem with DD was that he would just throw additional prospects into trades willy nilly as add ons when he could have held onto that capital for other trades or potential in house use. He just didn't value prospects as highly as others in the market.

 

For example, while Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz didn't ultimately hurt the Sox, the Sox should have received more for a top 25 prospect.

[mvp 78]

My list shows the guys he inherited and kept. Just what you asked for.

 

I even provided a short list of those he trades and did more than squat.

 

I asked you what list was better.

 

Kept:

Devers

Houck

Duran

Bello

Crawford

Casas

Rafaela

 

The best performers he traded were:

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

 

Which list is better?

 

Bello had a 5.43 ERA in 2019 in Low A. Did Dave even know who he was?

Rafaela had only appeared in Lowell by 2019 (348 OPS). He never even OPS'd over 800 in the DSL. What was the trade value there? He hadn't even played an inning in the OF at that point.

Crawford wasn't even a Sox top 20 prospect in 2019.

Houck had already been converted to a bullpen arm in AAA at the end of 2019. He didn't pop until 2020.

[moonslav59]

Bello had a 5.43 ERA in 2019 in Low A. Did Dave even know who he was?

.

 

Yes, I mentioned how GM might not have been instrumental in choosing which prospects are drafted or signed as IFAs, or just how good they were when newbies, but the fact is, DD did not trade the ones that were better, and as I said before, maybe "by luck" or whatever, but the end balance sheet shows he did not empty or tear down the farm. The guys he traded did worse than the guys he kept (Ben's guys) or added (his guys).

[moonslav59]

Overrated? Maybe. But there is risk with all prospects. Not every prospect works out. That's exactly why the current strategy of the Sox is faulty.

 

The problem with DD was that he would just throw additional prospects into trades willy nilly as add ons when he could have held onto that capital for other trades or potential in house use. He just didn't value prospects as highly as others in the market.

 

For example, while Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz didn't ultimately hurt the Sox, the Sox should have received more for a top 25 prospect.

 

Maybe?

 

In hindsight and overall, they were clearly overrated. Some got hurt. That is unfortunate and hard to call "overrated," but the fact is, the vast majority underperformed expectations- many by a lot, and even the ones who did okay, many did less than expected (Moncada, Kopech.)

[notin]

My list shows the guys he inherited and kept. Just what you asked for.

 

I even provided a short list of those he trades and did more than squat.

 

I asked you what list was better.

 

Kept:

Devers

Houck

Duran

Bello

Crawford

Casas

Rafaela

 

The best performers he traded were:

Moncada

Kopech

Margot

 

Which list is better?

 

Not what I asked for.

 

And the notion that “he knew who to keep” list gets presumptuous when you include Bello, Crawford and Rafaela. Did he know to keep them or were these just 3 names that weren’t worth anything at the time. Unlike Devers and Benintendi, who were all over top 100 lists, none of these three were mentioned in Fangraphs top 29 prospects within the Sox system.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Not even in the quick hits below that list other notable omissions…