A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Not what I asked for.

 

And the notion that “he knew who to keep” list gets presumptuous when you include Bello, Crawford and Rafaela. Did he know to keep them or were these just 3 names that weren’t worth anything at the time. Unlike Devers and Benintendi, who were all over top 100 lists, none of these three were mentioned in Fangraphs top 29 prospects within the Sox system.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

Not even in the quick hits below that list other notable omissions…

 

Nobody is saying "he knew who to keep." I even said it might have been luck. The fact is he kept the right guys, for whatever reason and the ones he "emptied," mostly sucked or vastly underperformed expectations.

 

Can you answer my question?

 

Were the guys he kept better or worse than the ones he traded?

 

We can see he got lucky, but he did keep Devers and Beni, who were highly ranked his last year in BOS. Just those two are better than all he traded combined. If he got lucky, so what? It does not change the fact that he replenished the farm as he was trading players away. It did cause a period of almost no significant garduations from Devers to Houck, but the guys he kept were better than those he traded, right or wrong. Can you please answer?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A couple of others: Espinal was an All-Star in Toronto, now in Cincy; Dubon was a multi-purpose Gold Glover last year in Houston -- both are 29, in their primes, and bench pieces or platoon guys.

 

The first was swapped for Steve Pearce, 2018 World Series MVP... the second for Tyler Thornburg (and later from Milwaukee to SF for Pomeranz).

 

Win some, lose some. If you don't trade anyone and your name is Chaim, you get fired.

[Nick]

Think of insane $$ we spent on Moncada.

DD was confident enough about Devers and thus made the trade for Sale. Great trade.

 

Kopech was thought to be the big loss but like many prospects he did not reach stardom.

Edited April 3, 2024 by Nick

[Nick]

Brez is committed to youth movement and developing players we have.

 

I am in favor of it. And many of you wanted to send down Rafaela for more seasoning. This site loses much credibility with stupid suggestions.

 

Speaking of asinine can we quit making trades based on whatever stupid plateform many of you use?

 

Give me one trade suggested using that platform that has ever come to fruition.

Edited April 3, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

A couple of others: Espinal was an All-Star in Toronto, now in Cincy; Dubon was a multi-purpose Gold Glover last year in Houston -- both are 29, in their primes, and bench pieces or platoon guys.

 

The first was swapped for Steve Pearce, 2018 World Series MVP... the second for Tyler Thornburg (and later from Milwaukee to SF for Pomeranz).

 

Win some, lose some. If you don't trade anyone and your name is Chaim, you get fired.

 

So, Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espinal, Dubon vs Devers, Houck, Beni, Beeks and some others. (These were just the inherited prospects that were not traded.)

[Bellhorn04]

Brez is committed to youth movement and developing players we have.

 

I am in favor of it. And many of you wanted to send down Rafaela for more seasoning. This site loses much credibility with stupid suggestions.

 

Speaking of asinine can we quit making trades based on whatever stupid plateform many of you use?

 

Give me one trade suggested using that platform that has ever come to fruition.

 

Jeezus, calm down. BTV is just s*** for baseball fans to talk about. It doesn't really matter if any of the proposed trades ever happen.

[moonslav59]

Brez is committed to youth movement and developing players we have.

 

I am in favor of it. And many of you wanted to send down Rafaela for more seasoning. This site loses much credibility with stupid suggestions.

 

Speaking of asinine can we quit making trades based on whatever stupid plateform many of you use?

 

Give me one trade suggested using that platform that has ever come to fruition.

 

Many who spoke of having Rafaela spending time in AAA did not mention anything about "seasoning." They spoke of gaining a year of control and there not being enough playing time for everyone, including Abreu. Well, Ref got hurt and Abreu has sucked, so I think everybody wanted Rafaela on the opening day 26 man roster, if not starting.

 

It was not crazy thinking. If Rafaela was playing like Abreu, now, there might still be talk of sending him down to gain a year of control.

[moonslav59]

Looking at K's per PA and BBs per PA, here is the SSS comp to 2023:

 

K%; 28% (22% in '23)

 

B%: 9% (8% in '23)

 

We did face some tough pitchers in SEA, and OAK is a pitcher's park, but the park does not affect Ks and BBs.

 

OBP: .317 (.324 '23)

 

SLG: .350 (.424 '23)

 

OPS: .667 (.748 '23)

 

We only have one batter with 14+ PAs and an OPS over .707, and it is Rafaela at 1.145. (McGuire is at .962 with 13 PAs.)

 

Duran has a .393 OBP, and Yoshida is at .348.

 

Story leads the team in RBIs at 4.

 

The pitching has carried us, for sure. The D has been much improved.

 

[jad]

Sports boards have, or are imagined to have, credibility? By whom?

[notin]

Nobody is saying "he knew who to keep." I even said it might have been luck. The fact is he kept the right guys, for whatever reason and the ones he "emptied," mostly sucked or vastly underperformed expectations.

 

Can you answer my question?

 

Were the guys he kept better or worse than the ones he traded?

 

We can see he got lucky, but he did keep Devers and Beni, who were highly ranked his last year in BOS. Just those two are better than all he traded combined. If he got lucky, so what? It does not change the fact that he replenished the farm as he was trading players away. It did cause a period of almost no significant garduations from Devers to Houck, but the guys he kept were better than those he traded, right or wrong. Can you please answer?

 

Yes the list of players he kept was better.

 

But what happened was he also let the sox with no minimum wage talent coming up from 2018 and 2019. With no minimum wage talent, it makes it harder to keep his existing players. For example, he could have dealt Bradley instad of paying him $25mill from 2017-2020 and kept Margot, who made about $1.6 mill in that stretch. Probably not enough to make sure the Sox kept Betts, but certainly gives them more to work with towards that goal.

 

And before you go determine this means i think keeping Bradley was the sole reaon they let Betts go, I am not. But I am saying not having any minimum wage players come up at all during those years made it more difficult to keep Betts. Agree?

[notin]

Brez is committed to youth movement and developing players we have.

 

I am in favor of it. And many of you wanted to send down Rafaela for more seasoning. This site loses much credibility with stupid suggestions.

 

Speaking of asinine can we quit making trades based on whatever stupid plateform many of you use?

 

Give me one trade suggested using that platform that has ever come to fruition.

 

1. Sending Rafaela down for this year did have merit for thos e who thought 2024 was a lost year anyway, and the idea of him reaching free agency at age 28 doesn't help the sox at all. Of course, a lot of that rested on Abreu showing 2023 was slightly representative.

 

2. Knocking BTV because GMs do nt make exact trades we imagine is stupid. How many trades did people suggest before BTV that came to fruition? At least BTV trades avoid the common proposals of "hey let's dump our garbage for their all stars" propsals that get rampant when folks made trade suggestions.

 

But if you need an example, I almost completely nailed the Dylan Cease trade before it happened; I only added a couple extra names that were left off since I thought maybe the Padres might also want to address their empty OF situation at the same time.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/165039

 

Take out Dillon Head and Oscar Colas, and I nailed it...

[mvp 78]

Yes, I mentioned how GM might not have been instrumental in choosing which prospects are drafted or signed as IFAs, or just how good they were when newbies, but the fact is, DD did not trade the ones that were better, and as I said before, maybe "by luck" or whatever, but the end balance sheet shows he did not empty or tear down the farm. The guys he traded did worse than the guys he kept (Ben's guys) or added (his guys).

 

Yeah, with Rafaela, Bello, Crawford and Houck it was by luck IMO.

[mvp 78]

Maybe?

 

In hindsight and overall, they were clearly overrated. Some got hurt. That is unfortunate and hard to call "overrated," but the fact is, the vast majority underperformed expectations- many by a lot, and even the ones who did okay, many did less than expected (Moncada, Kopech.)

 

Now tell me your expectations for the current top 20 on SoxProspects... Is any prospect that doesn't hit their ceiling overrated?

[mvp 78]

A couple of others: Espinal was an All-Star in Toronto, now in Cincy; Dubon was a multi-purpose Gold Glover last year in Houston -- both are 29, in their primes, and bench pieces or platoon guys.

 

The first was swapped for Steve Pearce, 2018 World Series MVP... the second for Tyler Thornburg (and later from Milwaukee to SF for Pomeranz).

 

Win some, lose some. If you don't trade anyone and your name is Chaim, you get fired.

 

Ah, but you see Espinal is not a BEST because moon doesn't say so... We can only evaluate based on moon's perceived list.

[mvp 78]

Think of insane $$ we spent on Moncada.

DD was confident enough about Devers and thus made the trade for Sale. Great trade.

 

Kopech was thought to be the big loss but like many prospects he did not reach stardom.

 

No problem with the Sale trade. The others could have been better.

[mvp 78]

Brez is committed to youth movement and developing players we have.

 

I am in favor of it. And many of you wanted to send down Rafaela for more seasoning. This site loses much credibility with stupid suggestions.

 

Speaking of asinine can we quit making trades based on whatever stupid plateform many of you use?

 

Give me one trade suggested using that platform that has ever come to fruition.

 

Who thought Rafaela would learn anything in AAA? It was suggested that the Sox may put him in AAA to gain an extra year of control, which had nothing to do with him mastering AAA pitching.

[mvp 78]

Jeezus, calm down. BTV is just s*** for baseball fans to talk about. It doesn't really matter if any of the proposed trades ever happen.

 

And how many trades are put through that system on a daily basis? I'm sure some of them have come about.

 

At least people are now frustrated over BTV rather than WAR.

[mvp 78]

Sports boards have, or are imagined to have, credibility? By whom?

 

Aside from my posts? I would have no idea!

[mvp 78]

But if you need an example, I almost completely nailed the Dylan Cease trade before it happened; I only added a couple extra names that were left off since I thought maybe the Padres might also want to address their empty OF situation at the same time.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/165039

 

Take out Dillon Head and Oscar Colas, and I nailed it...

 

Almost?!?!?!? That's not the same thing! Embarrassing!

[moonslav59]

Yes the list of players he kept was better.

 

But what happened was he also let the sox with no minimum wage talent coming up from 2018 and 2019. With no minimum wage talent, it makes it harder to keep his existing players. For example, he could have dealt Bradley instad of paying him $25mill from 2017-2020 and kept Margot, who made about $1.6 mill in that stretch. Probably not enough to make sure the Sox kept Betts, but certainly gives them more to work with towards that goal.

 

And before you go determine this means i think keeping Bradley was the sole reaon they let Betts go, I am not. But I am saying not having any minimum wage players come up at all during those years made it more difficult to keep Betts. Agree?

 

I'm not trying to counter this point, at all, or to say DD was highly skilled at recognizing which far away prospects were going to be good or not. I was just addressing the fact that of the prospects he inherited, the ones he kept did better than the ones he traded, so I can't see this jiving with the idea he emptied or tore down the farm he inherited. Yes, we lost some ML ready or near ML ready prospects that ended up leaving a lull in significant graduates from devers to Houck, and that hurt the next GM, out of the gate, but overall, he built back more than he emptied- it just took a lot of time.

 

The Betts decision is not related to the point I was addressing.

 

[moonslav59]

Yeah, with Rafaela, Bello, Crawford and Houck it was by luck IMO.

 

Maybe not Houck, but fine. I agree much was luck, and his hand in who he acquired in drafts and IFA may not have been meaningful, but it was what it was- better than what he traded away.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking at K's per PA and BBs per PA, here is the SSS comp to 2023:

 

K%; 28% (22% in '23)

 

B%: 9% (8% in '23)

 

We did face some tough pitchers in SEA, and OAK is a pitcher's park, but the park does not affect Ks and BBs.

 

OBP: .317 (.324 '23)

 

SLG: .350 (.424 '23)

 

OPS: .667 (.748 '23)

 

We only have one batter with 14+ PAs and an OPS over .707, and it is Rafaela at 1.145. (McGuire is at .962 with 13 PAs.)

 

Duran has a .393 OBP, and Yoshida is at .348.

 

Story leads the team in RBIs at 4.

 

The pitching has carried us, for sure. The D has been much improved.

 

 

More whiffing and less slugging (compared to '23) is a problem that will definitely hurt when Boston plays better teams.

 

But this is the team that was built. We certainly expect Casas to re-emerge, and hope Grissom can contribute, but the batting order feels incomplete.

 

Story -- .303 career at Coors, .238 everywhere else -- will help, but he's not a #3 hitter in a good line-up...

 

In terms of strategy, the Earl Weaver pennant plan to ride pitching, defense and three-run homers is at risk.

[moonslav59]

Now tell me your expectations for the current top 20 on SoxProspects... Is any prospect that doesn't hit their ceiling overrated?

 

You missed a key word: "in hindsight."

 

I'll answer this in several years.

 

At the time, I felt DD went overboard on trading top prospects. I'm not being hypocritical to nowsay, in hindsight, what he did worked, well. Many of the highly or somewhat highly rated/ranked prospects got hurt or underperformed expectations. Do you disagree?

 

Did DD get lucky on that? Maybe or even likely, IMO.

 

GMs are routinely judged in hindsight. It is the nature of their profession. Brez is already being criticized for Gio getting hurt. That's the nature of the beast.

 

Judging DD's farm moves in hindsight reveals he did much better than many felt he was doing during is tenure, here and even 1-2 years afterwards. Now, I think is is pretty clear, he kept better inherited prospects than he traded, and he added some surprisingly good prospects, despite having lower draft picks and penalties on IFA signings that were not his fault. (Also, the comp pick rule changed, so it was harder to gain more prospects that way.)

 

[moonslav59]

Now tell me your expectations for the current top 20 on SoxProspects... Is any prospect that doesn't hit their ceiling overrated?

 

My expectation is that 2 of our top 3 prospects will end up being very good players and likely all stars (Anthony, Teel & Mayer.)

 

I also expect 2-3 from the next group to be good to very good: Rafaela, Abreu, Cespedes, Bleis, Wikelman, Perales and maybe Yorke.

 

We may see one surprise prospect do very well.

 

If we don't meet these expectations of mine, I'd say I overrated them.

[moonslav59]

Ah, but you see Espinal is not a BEST because moon doesn't say so... We can only evaluate based on moon's perceived list.

 

I forgot him. I added him on the next list, along with Dubon.

[mvp 78]

You missed a key word: "in hindsight."

 

I'll answer this in several years.

 

At the time, I felt DD went overboard on trading top prospects. I'm not being hypocritical to nowsay, in hindsight, what he did worked, well. Many of the highly or somewhat highly rated/ranked prospects got hurt or underperformed expectations. Do you disagree?

 

Yes, you are being hypocritical.

[jgar658]

Who thought Rafaela would learn anything in AAA? It was suggested that the Sox may put him in AAA to gain an extra year of control, which had nothing to do with him mastering AAA pitching.

 

Every time Rafaela makes a great catch that saves a run is the equivalent of hitting a home run on offense.

[Hitch]

Brez is committed to youth movement and developing players we have.

 

I am in favor of it. And many of you wanted to send down Rafaela for more seasoning. This site loses much credibility with stupid suggestions.

 

Speaking of asinine can we quit making trades based on whatever stupid plateform many of you use?

 

Give me one trade suggested using that platform that has ever come to fruition.

 

Credibility? Wat?

 

I don't remember anyone saying they wanted Rafaela to go down for 'seasoning'. People did say he might go down for control.

 

Impressive amount of smarm in this post.

[moonslav59]

Yes, you are being hypocritical.

 

Not at all. Look up the meaning of the word.

 

I admit I was somewhat harsh on DD, at the time, but I never said he emptied the farm or tore it down.

 

[moonslav59]

Every time Rafaela makes a great catch that saves a run is the equivalent of hitting a home run on offense.

 

More like a double or single, unless he robs a HR or makes a game saving catch, like last night.