A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

Many teams do, of course. The Sox are still hellaciously rich and have cleared a lot of the truly dead money.

 

As I like to say, it's really the fans' money, they're the ones who keep it flowing into the coffers. Henry and the other owners are the ones who profit from it. They have never been personally damaged by a bad contract.

 

They stopped putting their own money in a long time ago.

[mvp 78]

Do the math for '20 and '21, and tell me which star(s) we trade away to make the budget.

 

Take away all the signings, and despite many being bad or so,so, who plays all our open positions?

 

If they are re-signing Betts, they aren't extending Sale. That's one contract off the books.

[Duran Is The Man]

They're about to thin the herd... and I bet Theo suggested to Brez the outside consulting firm -- so no one new looks like a Molly Hatchet album cover.

 

LOL...nice.

[moonslav59]

The mistake obviously was not getting the extension done with Betts. Once that happened they turned to Bogey and Sale.

 

John Henry just didn't think Betts was going to be worth 12 years and $360 mill. He drew the line too low. It's pretty simple, really.

 

All that said, it's easier to judge what a mistake it was when we've seen Betts prove it with the Dodgers over an extended period.

 

I totally agree. I was 100% behind extending or re-signing Betts at whatever it took.

 

I do think keepin him would have forced other departures of popular and skilled players, and JH would still have become tight-fisted. The 2019 team was getting more and more expensive, and it was bound to come to a head.

 

The extended future did not look good, under the assumption that JH was not going to spend to near the 2019 level for at least the next 5 years. We cam pretty close in 2022, and with inflation figured in, probably about even with 2019 in 2022.

 

The 2020-2021 team had a GM that was handcuffed. It actually began in 2019, when Kimbrel and Kelly were not re-signed or replaced anywhere near in-kind. We almost traded betts in the summer of 2019, so the writing was clearly written on the wall. The long term outlook was pretty bleak, as our farm looked pretty weak.

 

My point was and still is, that with the budget and farm considered appropriately, our longer term outlook looks better now, than in 2019. This is not hindsight, either. Many saw the writing on the wall, back then, and the word written in bold print started with a "C." That pretty much came true, in large part due to JH's budget slashing and no significant farm input for about 5 years (summer 2017-2022 or 2023.)

 

Now, we have a pretty nice young core of everyday players filling every position and 3 highly regarded prospect near ML readiness. Even our pitching staff looks brighter now, than just a few short months ago, despite the farm still looking very weak in this area. We have several young or younger pitchers with 3+ years of control.

 

Age

25 Bello

26 Wink, Slaten, Campbell

27

28 Houck, Crawford, Whitlock

29 Weissert, Kelly

 

The staff still has some major holes, question marks and injury concerns, but it looks brighter- longer term than the staff back in 2020-2023, with expiring contracts, rising budget costs and major injury issues with too many pitchers.

 

I'm not saying everything looks rosy. Teams like ATL, BAL and a few others have better and more younger proven stars than we do. It's all relative, and IMO, our future looks brighter now than it has in 5 years.

 

The present does not.

[moonslav59]

If they are re-signing Betts, they aren't extending Sale. That's one contract off the books.

 

Yes, agreed, and that made sense then and in hindsight, but it looked like Betts was not going to sign for what he ended up taking with LAD. Would it have taken $400M/13? If so, we'd need to do away with more than just Sale, or end up with 10-12 min wage slots on the 26, and little farm help to fill those holes.

[Duran Is The Man]

Yes, agreed, and that made sense then and in hindsight, but it looked like Betts was not going to sign for what he ended up taking with LAD. Would it have taken $400M/13? If so, we'd need to do away with more than just Sale, or end up with 10-12 min wage slots on the 26, and little farm help to fill those holes.

 

speaking of "little farm help". here we are 5 years removed from the Evil Farm Destroyer Dave Dombrowski and there is literally zero pitching on the Farm Horizon.

[mvp 78]

If they kept Betts they had to get through a rough couple of years payroll and tax wise, that was all. It wasn't a horrible situation. Not when you're as rich as the Sox.

 

Dodgers are able to do it, why not the Sox?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, agreed, and that made sense then and in hindsight, but it looked like Betts was not going to sign for what he ended up taking with LAD.

 

Hard to say that when they didn't offer it to him.

 

The highest number we've heard was 300 mill, and of course Betts said that didn't happen either.

 

I think you were probably right when you suggested they talked about 300 mill but didn't make an official offer for that much.

[mvp 78]

Yes, agreed, and that made sense then and in hindsight, but it looked like Betts was not going to sign for what he ended up taking with LAD. Would it have taken $400M/13? If so, we'd need to do away with more than just Sale, or end up with 10-12 min wage slots on the 26, and little farm help to fill those holes.

 

They offer 300, he counters for 400. He ends up signing for 360. But it looks like he would have never signed for that with the Sox! How? Sox never countered! Saying he wasn't going to sign here is just running interference for Henry IMO.

[mvp 78]

speaking of "little farm help". here we are 5 years removed from the Evil Farm Destroyer Dave Dombrowski and there is literally zero pitching on the Farm Horizon.

 

Bloom didn't draft or develop pitching very well. Bloom did a good job building up a stock pile of guys, but not many notable pitchers.

 

Breslow acquired 3 of the top 5 pitching prospects (per SoxProspects).

[Bellhorn04]

I just think John Henry is a guy who likes to be a hardass about some things. They'd already done it with Lester.

[mvp 78]

I just think John Henry is a guy who likes to be a hardass about some things. They'd already done it with Lester.

 

A walking PR disaster, that guy.

[moonslav59]

speaking of "little farm help". here we are 5 years removed from the Evil Farm Destroyer Dave Dombrowski and there is literally zero pitching on the Farm Horizon.

 

That's on Bloom.

 

We might get some surprises like Crawford was from...

 

Sandlin

Fitts

Guerrero

Wikelman & Perales

Mongero & Dobbins

 

Maybe a sleeper.

 

We can't keep counting on finding guys like Wink, Whitlock, Schreiber, Slaten and Bernardino.

[moonslav59]

They offer 300, he counters for 400. He ends up signing for 360. But it looks like he would have never signed for that with the Sox! How? Sox never countered! Saying he wasn't going to sign here is just running interference for Henry IMO.

 

I actually said "it looks like..." not the he "never would."

 

You are right. We didn't even bother to counter with $310 or $320. A $325M/11 offer seemed like a no brainer.

 

I'm not excusing JH or DD or Bloom for not even trying. If it was all JH who drew the line in the sand at $300M, it's 100% on him.

[mvp 78]

That's on Bloom.

 

We might get some surprises like Crawford was from...

 

Sandlin

Fitts

Guerrero

Wikelman & Perales

Mongero & Dobbins

 

Maybe a sleeper.

 

We can't keep counting on finding guys like Wink, Whitlock, Schreiber, Slaten and Bernardino.

 

Dobbins and Fitts have pitched well so far. Perales and Wikelman have turned their seasons around after starting off rough.

[mvp 78]

I actually said "it looks like..." not the he "never would."

 

You are right. We didn't even bother to counter with $310 or $320. A $325M/11 offer seemed like a no brainer.

 

I'm not excusing JH or DD or Bloom for not even trying. If it was all JH who drew the line in the sand at $300M, it's 100% on him.

 

I just don't believe it even looks like he wouldn't have signed here. A lot of people say that, but that's their personal bias IMO. Sox cut off the negotiation. What was Mookie supposed to do?

[Bellhorn04]

I just don't believe it even looks like he wouldn't have signed here. A lot of people say that, but that's their personal bias IMO. Sox cut off the negotiation. What was Mookie supposed to do?

 

The intriguing part was that Betts said "talk to Chaim about it", implying that there were some final talks before he was traded. Slack-ass Boston media failed to follow up on that.

[notin]

The intriguing part was that Betts said "talk to Chaim about it", implying that there were some final talks before he was traded. Slack-ass Boston media failed to follow up on that.

 

Maybe that talk didn't occur?

 

Certainly the media doesn't know about every conversation between players and management, but that also doesn't mean everything that gets mentioned is true as well.

 

I don't think many, if any, players talk to the CBO/GM about contracts. That's what agents are for, and I'd be surprised if players knew about every conversation their agents had...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe that talk didn't occur?

 

Certainly the media doesn't know about every conversation between players and management, but that also doesn't mean everything that gets mentioned is true as well.

 

I don't think many, if any, players talk to the CBO/GM about contracts. That's what agents are for, and I'd be surprised if players knew about every conversation their agents had...

 

What does that have to do with the media not following up with Bloom? That's kind of their job. Maybe Bloom wouldn't respond, but that's beside the point.

[mvp 78]

The intriguing part was that Betts said "talk to Chaim about it", implying that there were some final talks before he was traded. Slack-ass Boston media failed to follow up on that.

 

That's what I said! CHB couldn't be bothered to actually pick up the phone for once?

[mvp 78]

Maybe that talk didn't occur?

 

Certainly the media doesn't know about every conversation between players and management, but that also doesn't mean everything that gets mentioned is true as well.

 

I don't think many, if any, players talk to the CBO/GM about contracts. That's what agents are for, and I'd be surprised if players knew about every conversation their agents had...

 

Obfuscate obfuscate obfuscate!

[moonslav59]

I just don't believe it even looks like he wouldn't have signed here. A lot of people say that, but that's their personal bias IMO. Sox cut off the negotiation. What was Mookie supposed to do?

 

It's hard to know anything for sure, and I don't disagree with your opinion. He did say he wanted to test free agency, so there is some support to those who feel like he wouldn't have signed, unless blown away. The fact that he signed with LAD during COVID casts a shadow on that opinion, but maybe the circumstances of COVID played a had in his changing his mind.

 

Once the Sox did not counter, it was a cluster of a done deal: he was going to be traded.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to know anything for sure, and I don't disagree with your opinion. He did say he wanted to test free agency, so there is some support to those who feel like he wouldn't have signed, unless blown away.

 

I'd like to see the quote on what he actually said. He did talk about the 8 year/$200 million offer that he turned down, saying he came very close to signing it, and that it was his mother who told him to stay clear-headed and not over-react to what a big chunk of money it was and all that.

[notin]

What does that have to do with the media not following up with Bloom? That's kind of their job. Maybe Bloom wouldn't respond, but that's beside the point.

 

Maybe he wouldn't.

 

That would make sense if he was told not to spend the money. Turning in your boss as the culprit might help your reputation, but it makes for poor job security.

 

But really, we don't know what happened, or what conversations took place then. What we do know is Dombrowski tried to extend him, but could not get it done. Given that DD was not one to let a budget stand in his way (and still isn't), that strongly suggests Mookie's price to stay was higher than DD was allowed to spend. At that point, Bloom is moot...

[notin]

I'd like to see the quote on what he actually said. He did talk about the 8 year/$200 million offer that he turned down, saying he came very close to signing it, and that it was his mother who told him to stay clear-headed and not over-react to what a big chunk of money it was and all that.

 

No one seems to doubt the $200mill offer. The $300mill offer seems to be in question...

[notin]

I just don't believe it even looks like he wouldn't have signed here. A lot of people say that, but that's their personal bias IMO. Sox cut off the negotiation. What was Mookie supposed to do?

 

There were some stories at the time that Mookie was adamant about testing free agency. Certainly possible, but also possible they were misreported or simply negotiation tactics from his agent...

[notin]

Obfuscate obfuscate obfuscate!

 

Also known as keeping an open mind.

 

Bloom seems like an odd choice, since it seemed like it was over before he got into the picture since Bloom was brought in to get the Sox under the cap. If the Sox wanted to spend, they could have just kept Dombrowski...

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see the quote on what he actually said. He did talk about the 8 year/$200 million offer that he turned down, saying he came very close to signing it, and that it was his mother who told him to stay clear-headed and not over-react to what a big chunk of money it was and all that.

 

You have to think, had they countered that offer with $220/8 or $240/9, he might still be here.

[notin]

That's what I said! CHB couldn't be bothered to actually pick up the phone for once?

 

CHB isn't a beat guy who talks to people. Who wants to tell him anything?

[jad]

What we do know, and all we need to know, is that they got rid of the best player they had since Babe Ruth, and no one tries to justify that earlier mistake by pointing to financial exigencies or 'the farm' or anything else, and no one will finally give a cr*p about the excuses for this one either.