A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Reyes is just horrible defensively. They need to find a better UTIL. Valdez is probably a better DH, but hasn't shown anything this year. He'll be sent to AAA when Grissom is called up. I don't see much out of Hamilton. He shouldn't have been added to the 40 man roster by Bloom. I'd probably DFA after finding a replacement there too.

Valdez is such an awful fielder. He's worse than Reyes and DHam at 2B and can't play SS or 3B.

 

I think Reyes and DHam are about equally awful in all areas of the game.

[Bellhorn04]

Valdez is such an awful fielder. He's worse than Reyes and DHam at 2B and can't play SS or 3B.

 

I think Reyes and DHam are about equally awful in all areas of the game.

 

They're not major league players.

[Maxbialystock]

Sox are 10-10 with a run differential of +5 (9 of the 15 AL teams have negative run differentials) because of 1/2 the time, the pitchers.

 

The other half, 13 assorted hitters and positions players, stink. The Sox defense is ranked 30th in MLB and the offense/hitting is ranked 22d in OPS and 18th in runs scored.

 

The payroll, $180M, is ranked 11th.

 

$26M of that is spent on Sale, Turner, and others who have moved on to other teams. $62M is going to players on the IL (Story, Giolito, Pivetta, O'Neill, Whitlock, Hendricks, etc) .

$65M goes to Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--all of whom are clearly overpaid this season.

 

That leaves $27M to pay for the pitchers and lineup players who are actually contributing to wins and losses. However, Pivetta, Whitlock, and especially O'Neill have all definitely contributed and are expected back. So add their $17M in collective salaries back onto the $27M for $44M total.

 

Also add back $10M each for Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--about what each is actually worth this year--for a final total of $74M

 

Given that $74M salary valuation of the 2024 Sox, 10-10 is pretty darn good. Given the actual payroll of $180M, something's rotten in the state of Denmark.

[Bellhorn04]

We have 7 guys in minus fWAR territory:

 

Hamilton

Abreu

Yoshida

Dalbec

Rafaela

Valdez

Reyes

[Nick]

Sox are 10-10 with a run differential of +5 (9 of the 15 AL teams have negative run differentials) because of 1/2 the time, the pitchers.

 

The other half, 13 assorted hitters and positions players, stink. The Sox defense is ranked 30th in MLB and the offense/hitting is ranked 22d in OPS and 18th in runs scored.

 

The payroll, $180M, is ranked 11th.

 

$26M of that is spent on Sale, Turner, and others who have moved on to other teams. $62M is going to players on the IL (Story, Giolito, Pivetta, O'Neill, Whitlock, Hendricks, etc) .

$65M goes to Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--all of whom are clearly overpaid this season.

 

That leaves $27M to pay for the pitchers and lineup players who are actually contributing to wins and losses. However, Pivetta, Whitlock, and especially O'Neill have all definitely contributed and are expected back. So add their $17M in collective salaries back onto the $27M for $44M total.

 

Also add back $10M each for Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--about what each is actually worth this year--for a final total of $74M

 

Given that $74M salary valuation of the 2024 Sox, 10-10 is pretty darn good. Given the actual payroll of $180M, something's rotten in the state of Denmark.

 

Sox have done horrible job valuing talent. It's more that we have allocated $180M to wrong players than not spending. Had we spent wisely, we'd have more money available for top talent such as Betts.

[mvp 78]

I dunno, I'm starting to get a feeling it might happen sooner. Maybe for PR reasons as much as anything. The Netflix doc really needs something.

 

He's only a little younger than Volpe was starting last year. And Volpe has been a success.

 

Volpe is 20 months older, but the bigger deal is Mayer missing almost a lot of development last year due to his injury. Volpe played 110 games in AA and 22 in AAA. Mayer would need 80 more MiLB games prior to being called up to meet that. That's a call up in about 14 weeks. So maybe early August if he's on that track?

[mvp 78]

Sox have done horrible job valuing talent. It's more that we have allocated $180M to wrong players than not spending. Had we spent wisely, we'd have more money available for top talent such as Betts.

 

The Yoshida contract may be the killer since he can't actually field a position and nobody is going to want him in a trade.

[mvp 78]

We have 7 guys in minus fWAR territory:

 

Hamilton

Abreu

Yoshida

Dalbec

Rafaela

Valdez

Reyes

 

Abreu's 36% k rate is not good!

Rafaela's 206 OBP is something!

 

Everyone else on that list can go.

[Nick]

Our starting pitching has been really good.

 

Their 7-3 record is only topped by Royals' 8-3.

 

The group has pitched 104 innings, 4th highest in the AL.

 

The starters lead the AL in ERA at 1.82, even accounting for unearned runs, they've only given up 27 runs, 1st in AL.

 

Their .99 WHIP and .203 BA against also tops the AL for starters.

 

Pretty incredible really.

[vegasbob]

Adding Gutierrez added for "organizational depth" ? . Did Bloom's severance package include him making one more dumpster dive deal to fill out WooSox rotation. ? Gut is a substandard pitcher, but he has already had his TJS procedure, so there's that.

 

Surely Breslow cannot be so reluctant to make a move for a defensive utility infielder . I think he waiting on Grissom , who we all know is the key to turning around the defense. Vaughn shows, Dalbec goes, or is it Hamilton ?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox are 10-10 with a run differential of +5 (9 of the 15 AL teams have negative run differentials) because of 1/2 the time, the pitchers.

 

The other half, 13 assorted hitters and positions players, stink. The Sox defense is ranked 30th in MLB and the offense/hitting is ranked 22d in OPS and 18th in runs scored.

 

The payroll, $180M, is ranked 11th.

 

$26M of that is spent on Sale, Turner, and others who have moved on to other teams. $62M is going to players on the IL (Story, Giolito, Pivetta, O'Neill, Whitlock, Hendricks, etc) .

$65M goes to Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--all of whom are clearly overpaid this season.

 

That leaves $27M to pay for the pitchers and lineup players who are actually contributing to wins and losses. However, Pivetta, Whitlock, and especially O'Neill have all definitely contributed and are expected back. So add their $17M in collective salaries back onto the $27M for $44M total.

 

Also add back $10M each for Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--about what each is actually worth this year--for a final total of $74M

 

Given that $74M salary valuation of the 2024 Sox, 10-10 is pretty darn good. Given the actual payroll of $180M, something's rotten in the state of Denmark.

 

This is a great post. Thanks for breaking it down.

 

An actual playing payroll of $74M explains a lot.

[mvp 78]

Also add back $10M each for Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--about what each is actually worth this year--for a final total of $74M

 

Not sure where you're getting the 10M valuation for Devers. You think he'll only have a 104 wRC+ for the whole year?

[Bellhorn04]

Sox are 10-10 with a run differential of +5 (9 of the 15 AL teams have negative run differentials) because of 1/2 the time, the pitchers.

 

The other half, 13 assorted hitters and positions players, stink. The Sox defense is ranked 30th in MLB and the offense/hitting is ranked 22d in OPS and 18th in runs scored.

 

The payroll, $180M, is ranked 11th.

 

$26M of that is spent on Sale, Turner, and others who have moved on to other teams. $62M is going to players on the IL (Story, Giolito, Pivetta, O'Neill, Whitlock, Hendricks, etc) .

$65M goes to Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--all of whom are clearly overpaid this season.

 

That leaves $27M to pay for the pitchers and lineup players who are actually contributing to wins and losses. However, Pivetta, Whitlock, and especially O'Neill have all definitely contributed and are expected back. So add their $17M in collective salaries back onto the $27M for $44M total.

 

Also add back $10M each for Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--about what each is actually worth this year--for a final total of $74M

 

Given that $74M salary valuation of the 2024 Sox, 10-10 is pretty darn good. Given the actual payroll of $180M, something's rotten in the state of Denmark.

 

Good analysis until you got to Devers, Yoshida and Jansen.

 

Every team has guys who are underperforming their salaries so far, and a lot of it is just randomness.

[Bellhorn04]

And to be totally nasty about it, Yoshida might have no value whatsoever.

 

When the manager benches the DH for 2 games in April when the team is already decimated by injuries, it's a really bad sign.

[Randy Red Sox]

Sox are 10-10 with a run differential of +5 (9 of the 15 AL teams have negative run differentials) because of 1/2 the time, the pitchers.

 

The other half, 13 assorted hitters and positions players, stink. The Sox defense is ranked 30th in MLB and the offense/hitting is ranked 22d in OPS and 18th in runs scored.

 

The payroll, $180M, is ranked 11th.

 

$26M of that is spent on Sale, Turner, and others who have moved on to other teams. $62M is going to players on the IL (Story, Giolito, Pivetta, O'Neill, Whitlock, Hendricks, etc) .

$65M goes to Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--all of whom are clearly overpaid this season.

 

That leaves $27M to pay for the pitchers and lineup players who are actually contributing to wins and losses. However, Pivetta, Whitlock, and especially O'Neill have all definitely contributed and are expected back. So add their $17M in collective salaries back onto the $27M for $44M total.

 

Also add back $10M each for Devers, Yoshida, and Jansen--about what each is actually worth this year--for a final total of $74M

 

Given that $74M salary valuation of the 2024 Sox, 10-10 is pretty darn good. Given the actual payroll of $180M, something's rotten in the state of Denmark.

 

the pitching is about to stink soon too given 1} the injuries to Pivetta and Whitlock and 2} the fact they are mainly pitching over their heads

[Maxbialystock]

Not sure where you're getting the 10M valuation for Devers. You think he'll only have a 104 wRC+ for the whole year?

 

It's a nice round number. Here's some phony-baloney analysis to justify $10M for Devers. The Sox have played 20 games, which is 1/8 of a season. Devers' total WAR so far is +0.1. Multiply that by 8 and he will contribute +0.8 WAR compared to an average of +4.1 in his 4 best seasons. So he's earning about .8/4.1 = 1/5 of his salary. He's paid $30M this year and is earning $6M.

 

Of course, Devers could straighten up, fly right, and earn his pay this year. But right now he seems injury-prone with shoulder, knee, and goodness knows what else.

 

The reality of course is that that the Sox are now paying Devers for the good seasons he had before he signed that big contract. That's also true of Mookie and a zillion others.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's a nice round number. Here's some phony-baloney analysis to justify $10M for Devers. The Sox have played 20 games, which is 1/8 of a season. Devers' total WAR so far is +0.1. Multiply that by 8 and he will contribute +0.8 WAR compared to an average of +4.1 in his 4 best seasons. So he's earning about .8/4.1 = 1/5 of his salary. He's paid $30M this year and is earning $6M.

 

Of course, Devers could straighten up, fly right, and earn his pay this year. But right now he seems injury-prone with shoulder, knee, and goodness knows what else.

 

The reality of course is that that the Sox are now paying Devers for the good seasons he had before he signed that big contract. That's also true of Mookie and a zillion others.

 

I know you didn't mean Mookie is also overpaid, because he leads baseball in WAR yet again -- already with 2 bWAR, more than half the Sox players earned all last season.

 

But I'm glad I looked it up, because Crawford leads all pitchers with 1.5 bWAR...

 

What I think you meant, Max, is that most free agents are paid for past accomplishments -- especially those past their primes (cough, Giolito, yak). They're all paid for their potential to repeat past success, but obviously some are better bets than others: Silver Slugger/Gold Glover/speedy runner superstar athlete 300-game bowler who wears a hoodie to feed the homeless incognito... vs. Silver Slugger/kinda thick in the middle grounder-jogger who leads MLB in errors at his position every season.

[gojohn99]

Well Devers has been battling injuries so I expect his number to improve.

 

It's a nice round number. Here's some phony-baloney analysis to justify $10M for Devers. The Sox have played 20 games, which is 1/8 of a season. Devers' total WAR so far is +0.1. Multiply that by 8 and he will contribute +0.8 WAR compared to an average of +4.1 in his 4 best seasons. So he's earning about .8/4.1 = 1/5 of his salary. He's paid $30M this year and is earning $6M.

 

Of course, Devers could straighten up, fly right, and earn his pay this year. But right now he seems injury-prone with shoulder, knee, and goodness knows what else.

 

The reality of course is that that the Sox are now paying Devers for the good seasons he had before he signed that big contract. That's also true of Mookie and a zillion others.

[moonslav59]

the pitching is about to stink soon too given 1} the injuries to Pivetta and Whitlock and 2} the fact they are mainly pitching over their heads

 

All 5 of our starters have some really good stuff, and have had very long stretches (plural) of doing well. It's really not a question of "pitching over their heads." The question is about doing it for a full season. Pivetta and Whitlock have already gone down with injuries- maybe just for a bit, and maybe the others will, too, but these guys can pitch.

 

I'm not projecting the all keep doing this well, even if healthy, but they do have the talent.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox are hanging around .500. Not a big surprise. I will say that the April schedule has been pretty favorable. The Orioles being the only really good team on it. Now it's the Pirates. Not a hard team to beat. Then Cleveland again, Cubs and Giants. All in all , not a tough April schedule, at least when it was drawn up. Maybe they should have a better record. But considering the injuries, .500 at this point is not too bad. Note: I have been trying ease the angst and improve the morale on here lately. Alas, to no avail.

[notin]

It's a nice round number. Here's some phony-baloney analysis to justify $10M for Devers. The Sox have played 20 games, which is 1/8 of a season. Devers' total WAR so far is +0.1. Multiply that by 8 and he will contribute +0.8 WAR compared to an average of +4.1 in his 4 best seasons. So he's earning about .8/4.1 = 1/5 of his salary. He's paid $30M this year and is earning $6M.

 

Of course, Devers could straighten up, fly right, and earn his pay this year. But right now he seems injury-prone with shoulder, knee, and goodness knows what else.

 

The reality of course is that that the Sox are now paying Devers for the good seasons he had before he signed that big contract. That's also true of Mookie and a zillion others.

 

Devers is also 27 years old. Every 20 game stretch in his career is not going to provide equal WAR value. If Vegas set the over under on his WAR at 0.9, would you bet the under?

 

But more important, again he is 27. He very likely has not had his best seasons yet. I've repeatedly referred to free agency as paying players in their 30s for what they did in their 20s for another team. But that really isn't the case with Devers. He was extended at a young enough age and also with a good enough track record that he is vey, very likely going to come very close, if not flat out exceed what he has done in the past. The Sox do not have a long history with doing this kind of thing with their players and whikle Devers might have been the last choice for some to extend among him, Betts and Bogaerts, I'm glad the FO did it...

[vegasbob]

Well Devers has been battling injuries so I expect his number to improve.

 

No, Devers injuries will become chronic conditions that will cap his progress through his contract. He now has all the money guaranteed to him that he may ever need. Where is the motivation to stay in top condition ? He is not on an HoF track, and will finish his baseball life as a DH, probably in that role within 3 years. Then he will get really chubby.

[moonslav59]

No, Devers injuries will become chronic conditions that will cap his progress through his contract. He now has all the money guaranteed to him that he may ever need. Where is the motivation to stay in top condition ? He is not on an HoF track, and will finish his baseball life as a DH, probably in that role within 3 years. Then he will get really chubby.

 

That's a big leep or speculation. (I was going to say "Heep.")

[vegasbob]

That's a big leep or speculation. (I was going to say "Heep.")

 

Yes, speculation, but I'll save it for the 2027 season and see how wrong it is. Your use of non-standard spelling for leep and heep further discounts Dever's opportunities. Age 27 should be a tremendous asset to him , so hope it is

[Maxbialystock]

Well Devers has been battling injuries so I expect his number to improve.

 

As do I. But I did start out by saying the lineup so far stinks, and Devers is beyond question one of the stinkees.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers is also 27 years old. Every 20 game stretch in his career is not going to provide equal WAR value. If Vegas set the over under on his WAR at 0.9, would you bet the under?

 

But more important, again he is 27. He very likely has not had his best seasons yet. I've repeatedly referred to free agency as paying players in their 30s for what they did in their 20s for another team. But that really isn't the case with Devers. He was extended at a young enough age and also with a good enough track record that he is vey, very likely going to come very close, if not flat out exceed what he has done in the past. The Sox do not have a long history with doing this kind of thing with their players and whikle Devers might have been the last choice for some to extend among him, Betts and Bogaerts, I'm glad the FO did it...

 

Optimistic post of the day.

 

Another: MLB just can't and won't stop messing with the damn baseballs, so it's very likely they'll juice them up again like 2019 before Raffy's prime is up, and maybe by then the Sox line-up with surround him with other stars like Betts, Bogaerts and Martinez -- so he doesn't have to put himself on the IL every other month trying to hit 5-run homers...

 

... and we'll get to see that Devers again who uses the whole field to bat .300 with 90 extra-base hits.

[notin]

Optimistic post of the day.

 

Another: MLB just can't and won't stop messing with the damn baseballs, so it's very likely they'll juice them up again like 2019 before Raffy's prime is up, and maybe by then the Sox line-up with surround him with other stars like Betts, Bogaerts and Martinez -- so he doesn't have to put himself on the IL every other month trying to hit 5-run homers...

 

... and we'll get to see that Devers again who uses the whole field to bat .300 with 90 extra-base hits.

 

My only concern with Devers is his defense.

 

I don't know how long he has been playing 3b. Professionally he has been playing since 2014 and, with the exception of 6 innings in his career, has never played any other position. I don't know for sure, but I would be very surprised if he never played 3B before joining the Sox organization. Will he improve? Maybe. Will he ever excel? I have my doubts and think he will eventually need to move to 1B and then possibly DH. The notion that he just needs more practice is probably a bit silly, as he is undoubtedly practicing a lot already...

[Tedballgame]

Red Sox wasted $72,000,000 on Rusney Castillo and now $90,000,000 on Yoshida.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Red Sox wasted $72,000,000 on Rusney Castillo and now $90,000,000 on Yoshida.

 

 

The SOX haven't had much luck on long, expensive contracts. So far, Story hasn't been exactly a bargain.

[dgalehouse]

The fact that Sox management could not find the money to pay Mookie, but found it for Story and Yoshida , says something about their poor judgement.