A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

not near where it is right now.

 

Of course not, but the point was about where the start of the downfall began.

 

Here is crude way to look at the trend:

 

Winning % changes:

 

-.148 '18>'19

-.119 '19>'20

+.168 '20>'21

-.087 '21>'22

-.000 '22>'23

 

By far, the biggest drop was from '18 to '19, and we all realize the high of 2018 was astounding, and the 84 win 2019 season was second only to 2021 since 2018. Still, it was a clear heavy decline, and DD or no DD, the drop in 2020 was written in stone, once the budget was set so low.

 

DD might have found a way to keep Betts, but I doubt it. Word was, he almost traded him in the summer of 2019. Had he found a way to keep him, it could only have happened, if he traded 2-3 from Bogey, Nate JD and or Sale. In hindsight, that would have been better, but we'd still have sucked in 2020 with DD, too.

 

Could DD have cobbled together a team like 2021? I won't go there. Too many variables involved.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Like Bogey & Nate?

 

Bloom, he said.

[Bellhorn04]

DD might have found a way to keep Betts, but I doubt it. Word was, he almost traded him in the summer of 2019. Had he found a way to keep him, it could only have happened, if he traded 2-3 from Bogey, Nate JD and or Sale. In hindsight, that would have been better, but we'd still have sucked in 2020 with DD, too.

 

DD couldn't keep Betts if JH didn't want to offer Betts more than $300 mill.

 

DD only signed Sale and Bogaerts to the extensions after the talks with Betts broke down.

 

The stuff about trading guys isn't really relevant.

 

When the talks broke down that was it. Game over.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boy, do you have that wrong. Yes, certainly, there have been some costly stinkers by the movie industry, but it is somewhat self-correcting. Producers, directors, and even actors involved in costly stinkers don't get offered as many movies/paychecks as before. They even have a phrase for it, "box office poison."

 

The corrective in MLB is that owners can change and CBO's and managers and even coaches can be fired. But the biggest costs, the players, keep getting paid IAW their contracts, some of which are beyond the dreams of avarice.

 

I've been a Sox fan since 1949, but I've only actually been to Fenway Park twice. Terrible seats, both times--and expensive, of course. Never going back.

 

Once Red Sox baseball became available on cable and/or the internet--over 20 years ago--I signed up every year to watch all the Sox games. At a very reasonable price--even though those stupid blackout restrictions keep me from watching the Sox any time they play the Nationals, Orioles, or Braves. So, even in a down season, I can't complain too much.

 

The fans who go to the games, however, get screwed. The price of my online season ticket is what they pay for every single game they watch in person.

 

And of course the media encourage gargantuan player contracts because they are grist for the mill--a good story. They always say, "the owners are rich. They can afford it." But they are dead wrong! The owners almost always pass the increased player costs onto the fans.

 

You start calling my opinion wrong, then write a post basically agreeing with my take.

 

I was wrong when I wrote "If they didn't get their money's worth, they deserve to be disappointed." What I meant to say is "they deserve to feel disappointed."

 

But your reply notes subsequent accountability, which doesn't really pertain to my point about, "No one ever mocks movie viewers or music fans for complaining about a bad film or offkey concert by artists who were once great."

 

The whole idea that a few fans mock the rest of us for complaining about a currently bad sports product -- because we should be happy since they were once really good, even recently -- is unique in entertainment.

 

When famous lead singers die or quit, their bands rarely sell music or do concerts, until/if they can find suitable quality replacements. But nobody calls their fans entitled while they just listen to the vintage stuff, and wait until it's good again to open their wallets.

[Duran Is The Man]

Like Bogey & Nate?

 

no, Moon, all the trash he signed besides them.

[Randy Red Sox]

I do think you can make a good case for DD, but would remind you of one simple fact.

 

What he buys for his owners, the fans pay for--not the great mass of us who watch games online or cable or TV or whatever--but the fans who go to the games, where the ticket prices go up and up and up. Want a hot dog? $20 (if not now, soon).

 

Also, as I just pointed out, these current, worthless, no good, rotten, stinking Sox, with a reduced payroll (now ranked 11th in MLB), much of which is on the IL or otherwise unavailable, is 11-10. Seems mediocre, but guess what? If you project it out to 162 games, the Sox win 85, which is one more than the 2019 Sox won with the highest payroll in MLB.

 

have the prices for tickets, food, etc at the park gone down since Henry has dropped his spending?

 

Never said DD was perfect. Every GM has his mistakes but I sure as hell will take him over the 2 we have had since. And one other factor to remember is that in 2019 we were not playing a balanced schedule either.

[dgalehouse]

Bloom traded Mookie. Bloom signed Story and Yoshida , and paid them 40 million a year. That is the reality. Dombrowski was successful. Bloom was a failure. That is the plain truth. All of the imaginary scenarios, spin, excuses and alternate realities notwithstanding.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Never said DD was perfect. Every GM has his mistakes but I sure as hell will take him over the 2 we have had since. And one other factor to remember is that in 2019 we were not playing a balanced schedule either.

 

Not even DD can win them all, but a lot of fans forget that when the pitching broke down in '19, he decisively traded two low prospects for the best starting pitcher on the market in mid-July, two weeks before the deadline.

 

The guy was 9-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 2.5 WAR at the time, for a club that would lose over 100 games... then he joined Boston and was a total disaster: 2-5, 6.20, -0.3 -- and never pitched again. His name was Andrew Cashner.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom traded Mookie. Bloom signed Story and Yoshida , and paid them 40 million a year. That is the reality. Dombrowski was successful. Bloom was a failure. That is the plain truth. All of the imaginary scenarios, spin, excuses and alternate realities notwithstanding.

 

Well, it's not quite that simple either. A Chaim Bloom doesn't trade a Mookie Betts unless he's given a mandate to do so. And if it's all about the facts, it's a fact that Dombrowski had several years in which to sign Betts to an extension but didn't.

 

It seems pretty obvious neither one of them had much say in the situation. Henry just didn't want to pay what it took.

[dgalehouse]

Well, it's not quite that simple either. A Chaim Bloom doesn't trade a Mookie Betts unless he's given a mandate to do so. And if it's all about the facts, it's a fact that Dombrowski had several years in which to sign Betts to an extension but didn't.

 

It seems pretty obvious neither one of them had much say in the situation. Henry just didn't want to pay what it took.

 

But Henry apparently had no problem paying Story and Yoshida.

[Bellhorn04]

But Henry apparently had no problem paying Story and Yoshida.

 

Or Devers.

 

I'm sure Henry would have paid Mookie $300 million, but Mookie wanted more.

 

It's not that complicated, really.

[dgalehouse]

Or Devers.

 

I'm sure Henry would have paid Mookie $300 million, but Mookie wanted more.

 

It's not that complicated, really.

 

To me, it's not complicated at all. Would Mookie have signed for 40 million per ? Because that is what they are paying for Story and Yoshida. The fact is, if they had signed Mookie and rejected Story and Yoshida , they would be a much better team today, the fans would be happier and they probably would have some money left over .

[notin]

To me, it's not complicated at all. Would Mookie have signed for 40 million per ? Because that is what they are paying for Story and Yoshida. The fact is, if they had signed Mookie and rejected Story and Yoshida , they would be a much better team today, the fans would be happier and they probably would have some money left over .

 

Would Mookie have signed for 6 years? Because that’s all the Yoshida/Story money pays for.

 

Unfortunately it’s not as simple as you want it to be. If signing Mookie was as simple as you think, why didn’t Dombrowski get it done?

[notin]

Or Devers.

 

I'm sure Henry would have paid Mookie $300 million, but Mookie wanted more.

 

It's not that complicated, really.

 

Some reports had him wanting $400mill…

[notin]

Bloom traded Mookie. Bloom signed Story and Yoshida , and paid them 40 million a year. That is the reality. Dombrowski was successful. Bloom was a failure. That is the plain truth. All of the imaginary scenarios, spin, excuses and alternate realities notwithstanding.

 

Those are two separate stories, despite your sad attempts to combine them.

 

You sound desperate to turn the story into Bloom choosing Story and Yoshia over Mookie and making up math that fits. And above all, making sure Dombrowski is cleared from not signing Mookie.

 

But the reality is Story and Yoshida combine for $255mill, far short of the $360mill it took to sign Mookie. This includes Yoshida’s posting fee, but not luxury taxes signing Mookie would have incurred. Dombrowski had multiple years to extend him and failed to do so. From what has been said, Mookie didn’t seem remarkably eager to extend, so I don’t think this was Dombrowski’s fault. I’m sure he went as high as he was allowed. But it didn’t look like Mookie wanted it to happen at whatever that limit was…

Edited April 20, 2024 by notin

[dgalehouse]

Would Mookie have signed for 6 years? Because that’s all the Yoshida/Story money pays for.

 

Unfortunately it’s not as simple as you want it to be. If signing Mookie was as simple as you think, why didn’t Dombrowski get it done?

 

Mookie is signed through 2032. The Sox could have done that if they wanted. And when Story and Yoshida's contracts are up, they will be replaced with others. Meanwhile, they are being paid more than Mookie would have gotten ,with nowhere near the productivity. As for Dombrowski, he was fired before the 2019 season ended. Mookie was still under contact through the 2020 season . So, there was ample time to sign him , even in free agency. But you had to pay him what he was worth, as the Yankees did with Judge. And Judge , while a star, is not the ballplayer that Mookie is. The bottom line is they could not find the money for Betts , but were able to come up with it for Story and Yoshida. That is the truth. You don't like to accept it, but that is what happened.

[moonslav59]

I stand by my position on DD. JH knew exactly what he was getting when he brought DD in and that was to win a WS which he did. He was not brought in to penny pinch like his 2 replacements have been. Yes DD spends but he is a WINNER. The man has had contending teams everywhere he has been and brought in many of the young talent this team currently has.

 

Exactly.

 

That begs the question, "How would DD have handled massive budget cuts?" And, did the decline really begin when DD was let go or more about when the budget was cut, radically?

[jad]

Those are two separate stories, despite your sad attempts to combine them.

 

You sound desperate to turn the story into Bloom choosing Story and Yoshia over Mookie and making up math that fits. And above all, making sure Dombrowski is cleared from not signing Mookie.

 

But the reality is Story and Yoshida combine for $255mill, far short of the $360mill it took to sign Mookie. This includes Yoshida’s posting fee, but not luxury taxes signing Mookie would have incurred. Dombrowski had multiple years to extend him and failed to do so. From what has been said, Mookie didn’t seem remarkably eager to extend, so I don’t think this was Dombrowski’s fault. I’m sure he went as high as he was allowed. But it didn’t look like Mookie wanted it to happen at whatever that limit was…

 

Why not just admit that the simple case: Mookie wanted market value and found a team willing to pay him market value, which the RS were not willing to do? (The question of whether a player DESERVES market value or whether market value for a particular player is a good or bad deal, or who decides this, or whether 'players get paid too much'-- all these have nothing to do with the central issue).

[moonslav59]

Why not just admit that the simple case: Mookie wanted market value and found a team willing to pay him market value, which the RS were not willing to do? (The question of whether a player DESERVES market value or whether market value for a particular player is a good or bad deal, or who decides this, or whether 'players get paid too much'-- all these have nothing to do with the central issue).

 

Nobody is failing to admit this.

 

We are just backing up your timeline on who the money was spent on to the more appropriate time: Bogey, Sale and Nate, not Yoshi and Story.

 

We all agree that the spending on larger contracts after DD left has been pretty bad, if not horrific.

 

There is very little time left for Yoshi & Story to salvage some plus value to their time here, but it looks like the overall grade cannot be above a C or D, at this point- at best. The Richards ($10M), Kluber ($10M), Kike II ($10M), Barnes and Gio deals only add to the angst. Jansen and Martin look like the only decent $10M+ deals after DD left. Very sad, but really not part of the Betts decision or influence on spending. We could have signed Betts, instead of Sale and Bogey (or add Nate, if you wish.)

 

[a700hitter]

Bloom had the last chance to sign Mookie, but he chose instead to trade him for a bag of used balls.

[dgalehouse]

Those are two separate stories, despite your sad attempts to combine them.

 

You sound desperate to turn the story into Bloom choosing Story and Yoshia over Mookie and making up math that fits. And above all, making sure Dombrowski is cleared from not signing Mookie.

 

But the reality is Story and Yoshida combine for $255mill, far short of the $360mill it took to sign Mookie. This includes Yoshida’s posting fee, but not luxury taxes signing Mookie would have incurred. Dombrowski had multiple years to extend him and failed to do so. From what ha s been said, Mookie didn’t seem remarkably eager to extend, so I don’t think this was Dombrowski’s fault. I’m sure he went as high as he was allowed. But it didn’t look like Mookie wanted it to happen at whatever that limit was…

 

Cut the crap with your snarky little comments like " sad attempt " , " learn math" , " you do realize " , etc., etc. You can't deny the facts . I am sorry that the facts do not agree with your fantasies. Your alternate reality. It's too bad that things do not happen the way you would like to imagine . No need to get nasty about it. And I am not desperate about anything. I am just saying what actually happened. It's all verifiable in the signed contracts, scoreboard and history. You can't change that no matter how hard you try or how many times you post what your imagination dictates. When all is said and done, It was Bloom who traded Betts. It was Bloom who signed Story and Yoshida. It was Bloom who finished in last place three times out of four. Bloom was a disaster as head of baseball operations. I know it hurts, but it is the truth.

[dgalehouse]

Better off talking to the wall than trying to reason with the " Bloom Brothers."

[notin]

Mookie is signed through 2032. The Sox could have done that if they wanted. And when Story and Yoshida's contracts are up, they will be replaced with others. Meanwhile, they are being paid more than Mookie would have gotten ,with nowhere near the productivity. As for Dombrowski, he was fired before the 2019 season ended. Mookie was still under contact through the 2020 season . So, there was ample time to sign him , even in free agency. But you had to pay him what he was worth, as the Yankees did with Judge. And Judge , while a star, is not the ballplayer that Mookie is. The bottom line is they could not find the money for Betts , but were able to come up with it for Story and Yoshida. That is the truth. You don't like to accept it, but that is what happened.

 

Again. No.

 

Story and Yoshida combine for $255mill. Mookie signed for $360mill. That’s a big difference. Mookie didn’t sign for the AAV; he signed for the $360mill guaranteed…

 

The Sox could have signed him, but no agreement was reachable.

Edited April 20, 2024 by notin

[notin]

Better off talking to the wall than trying to reason with the " Bloom Brothers."

 

You don’t get out. This isn’t a Bloom thing; this is a basic math thing.

 

You’re arguing that $255mill over 11 seasons is equal to $360mill over 12 seasons.

 

But at least you took your own advice on cutting the snarky comments…

Edited April 20, 2024 by notin

[dgalehouse]

You don’t get out. This isn’t a Bloom thing; this is a basic math thing.

 

You’re arguing that $255mill over 11 seasons is equal to $360mill over 12 seasons…

 

No. You just don't want to understand. My point is simply that the money spent on Story and Yoshida could have and should have been better spent on Betts. I don't think that is arguable. But I am tired of this with you. I post something as obvious and innocuous as it would be nice to play teams like the A's and Pirates all the time, and you come back with some explanation why that isn't the case. I don't mind that. You can't help it. It's just your nature. But I'm tired of it. Have a nice day.

[notin]

Cut the crap with your snarky little comments like " sad attempt " , " learn math" , " you do realize " , etc., etc. You can't deny the facts . I am sorry that the facts do not agree with your fantasies. Your alternate reality. It's too bad that things do not happen the way you would like to imagine . No need to get nasty about it. And I am not desperate about anything. I am just saying what actually happened. It's all verifiable in the signed contracts, scoreboard and history. You can't change that no matter how hard you try or how many times you post what your imagination dictates. When all is said and done, It was Bloom who traded Betts. It was Bloom who signed Story and Yoshida. It was Bloom who finished in last place three times out of four. Bloom was a disaster as head of baseball operations. I know it hurts, but it is the truth.

 

I’m not defending Bloom; I’m pointing out the reality. Players sign for the total value, not the AAV.

 

When the Yankees tried to sign Judge to a 14 year deal, it wasn’t Judge who objected; it was MLB. Judge signed; he didn’t care. He was getting the same money.

 

Ohtani deferred the bulk of his money to lower his AAV because, hey, think he cares if he gets his $700mill a few years later. He’s still getting $700mill.

 

AAV matters to the team, especially as the approach tax limits. Players want the total commitment…

[Hugh2]

I can’t believe we are still debating this.

 

It’s pretty much established law now that Bloom wasn’t resigning Mookie. John Henry wouldn’t allow it. Just like he didn’t let DD up his offer to Mookie either.

 

It all comes down to Henry, continuing to s*** on Bloom years after the fact and after he’s gone is creepily weird. Like texting your ex girlfriend years later on Valentine’s Day creepy weird.

[Maxbialystock]

I hate to jump back into the Mookie discussion, but can't resist this.

 

If we ignore 2020--which absolutely, positively was a non-season--as we should do, the Dodgers haven't done nearly as much with Mookie as the Sox did. I hasten to add that Mookie's WAR's with the Sox were significantly higher than they have been with the Dodgers, who are paying twice as much for lower value. And that's exactly what would have happened if Mookie had stayed in Boston--twice as much for lower value. In addition, had Mookie stayed, the Sox would still have had no freaking pitching.

[Randy Red Sox]

Exactly.

 

That begs the question, "How would DD have handled massive budget cuts?" And, did the decline really begin when DD was let go or more about when the budget was cut, radically?

 

My guess is that John Henry informed DD of the upcoming payroll slashing and DD balked and as a result was gassed.

[Randy Red Sox]

Not even DD can win them all, but a lot of fans forget that when the pitching broke down in '19, he decisively traded two low prospects for the best starting pitcher on the market in mid-July, two weeks before the deadline.

 

The guy was 9-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 2.5 WAR at the time, for a club that would lose over 100 games... then he joined Boston and was a total disaster: 2-5, 6.20, -0.3 -- and never pitched again. His name was Andrew Cashner.

 

 

Like I said no GM is perfect but I can guarantee the Sox would be better off today if DD was still in charge than they currently are