A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hate to jump back into the Mookie discussion, but can't resist this.

 

If we ignore 2020--which absolutely, positively was a non-season--as we should do, the Dodgers haven't done nearly as much with Mookie as the Sox did. I hasten to add that Mookie's WAR's with the Sox were significantly higher than they have been with the Dodgers, who are paying twice as much for lower value. And that's exactly what would have happened if Mookie had stayed in Boston--twice as much for lower value. In addition, had Mookie stayed, the Sox would still have had no freaking pitching.

 

If I rooted for LA, I'd say you can't have it both ways on 2020 -- when Mookie led the majors with 3.6 WAR in 55 games. Granted, it was approximately one-third of a 162-game season -- but if you assume Betts sustained such excellence over a full year (as he has virtually his entire career)... then 3.6 X 3 approaches his career-high MVP season in Boston in 2018.

 

If you look at where he has finished in MVP voting, Mookie already has three top-5s in the NL: two 2nds and a 5th. In Boston, he won one and finished 2nd (also 6th and 8th).

 

Through almost the first month of 2024, Betts has again been the top player in his league, and probably all of baseball; he leads MLB in Offensive WAR and is third in Defensive WAR... while playing a new and vital position... for a first-place team.

[notin]

If I rooted for LA, I'd say you can't have it both ways on 2020 -- when Mookie led the majors with 3.6 WAR in 55 games. Granted, it was approximately one-third of a 162-game season -- but if you assume Betts sustained such excellence over a full year (as he has virtually his entire career)... then 3.6 X 3 approaches his career-high MVP season in Boston in 2018.

 

If you look at where he has finished in MVP voting, Mookie already has three top-5s in the NL: two 2nds and a 5th. In Boston, he won one and finished 2nd (also 6th and 8th).

 

Through almost the first month of 2024, Betts has again been the top player in his league, and probably all of baseball; he leads MLB in Offensive WAR and is third in Defensive WAR... while playing a new and vital position... for a first-place team.

 

I’d love it if the Sox kept Betts, especially over oft-injured Story and TBD Yoshida. But it’s not like it was an an either/or. Once Betts wasn’t retained, I’m just happy they spent the money at all…

[Elktonnick]

Like I said no GM is perfect but I can guarantee the Sox would be better off today if DD was still in charge than they currently are

I generally agree. But JH would have never let DD remain this long. I think JH set his sights on expanding his empire into non baseball activities. As such he was not going commit any excess Dollars into the Red Sox. I think Henry thinks baseball salaries are too high and non productive. His goal may be unrealistic but he wants to compete in a more cost effective manner.

[moonslav59]

Bloom had the last chance to sign Mookie, but he chose instead to trade him for a bag of used balls.

 

Absolutely no evidence for this.

 

If it was possible, he'd have had to trade 2 or 3 from Sale, JD, Bogey or Nate to keep him.

[moonslav59]

Better off talking to the wall than trying to reason with the " Bloom Brothers."

 

Not "snarky" at all.

 

You can dish but can't take.

[moonslav59]

My guess is that John Henry informed DD of the upcoming payroll slashing and DD balked and as a result was gassed.

 

That's been my position from way back when.

 

The departure was likely a mutual, even if it was not stated to each other.

[moonslav59]

Like I said no GM is perfect but I can guarantee the Sox would be better off today if DD was still in charge than they currently are

 

When has he done very well without spending?

 

I'm not saying your wrong about being better or not, but "guarantee?"

[moonslav59]

I’d love it if the Sox kept Betts, especially over oft-injured Story and TBD Yoshida. But it’s not like it was an an either/or. Once Betts wasn’t retained, I’m just happy they spent the money at all…

 

Not a single poster was happy we lost Betts. Most seem to realize the budget cuts forced the choice, as it was reported DD almost traded Betts, so it seemed like it was in the works for a while.

 

When you look at the fact that Kimbrel and Kelly were not replaced after 2018, and the massive cuts to the budget before 2020, it's hard for me to understand how some think Bloom could have spent much more but chose not to do so.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

I generally agree. But JH would have never let DD remain this long. I think JH set his sights on expanding his empire into non baseball activities. As such he was not going commit any excess Dollars into the Red Sox. I think Henry thinks baseball salaries are too high and non productive. His goal may be unrealistic but he wants to compete in a more cost effective manner.

 

 

I agree with your thoughts but it ain’t gonna happen as evidenced by 3 last place finishes in the past 4 years

[Elktonnick]

That's been my posit

ion from way back when.

 

The departure was likely a mutual, even if it was not stated to each other.

 

I don't think DD's departure was mutual. Their is ample evidence that DD wanted to stay and was pissed at the way the FO handled his leaving.

 

We know from past experience the Henry has a s***** record of handling personnel departures.

[Randy Red Sox]

When has he done very well without spending?

 

I'm not saying your wrong about being better or not, but "guarantee?"

 

Teams who hire DD know what his mantra is. John Henry at one time did too. If you want to go cheap don’t hire DD but if you want to win….

 

I really hope DD writes a tell all book one day. I will be the first to buy it

Edited April 21, 2024 by Randy Red Sox

[moonslav59]

I don't think DD's departure was mutual. Their is ample evidence that DD wanted to stay and was pissed at the way the FO handled his leaving.

 

We know from past experience the Henry has a s***** record of handling personnel departures.

 

I think he did not want to return under the circumstances handed to Bloom. You do?

 

Yes, he wanted to stay and have a budget much higher than Bloom was given.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think he did not want to return under the circumstances handed to Bloom. You do?

 

Yes, he wanted to stay and have a budget much higher than Bloom was given.

 

 

No-one has replied to my point about the fact that MLB has balanced schedules today. I maintain that 84 wins in 2019 is equal to about 88-90 today

[Maxbialystock]

You start calling my opinion wrong, then write a post basically agreeing with my take.

 

I was wrong when I wrote "If they didn't get their money's worth, they deserve to be disappointed." What I meant to say is "they deserve to feel disappointed."

 

But your reply notes subsequent accountability, which doesn't really pertain to my point about, "No one ever mocks movie viewers or music fans for complaining about a bad film or offkey concert by artists who were once great."

 

The whole idea that a few fans mock the rest of us for complaining about a currently bad sports product -- because we should be happy since they were once really good, even recently -- is unique in entertainment.

 

When famous lead singers die or quit, their bands rarely sell music or do concerts, until/if they can find suitable quality replacements. But nobody calls their fans entitled while they just listen to the vintage stuff, and wait until it's good again to open their wallets.

 

I definitely misunderstood you. My point is that moviegoers and music lovers have choices and real baseball fans don't. When your team stinks, you're screwed.

[Elktonnick]

If you recall DD confronted Werner about his contract not being renewed. He wanted to return but Henry decided not to renew his contract. The reporting coming out at the time was that Henry did not like DDs lone wolf management style. He wanted a more collegial consensus form of management from the CBO.

Henry allegedly wanted to fire DD earlier in 2018 but couldn't because DD went and won the world series. Damn inconsiderate of him too.

What DD wanted regarding the budget was never the issue. That is merely conjecture based on hindsight. It was all about DDs subordinates not being happy with his management style.. The same subordinates who went leaking to the press all their peeves about Bloom.

 

The Red Sox front office is a snake pit.

[moonslav59]

To the posters who feel it's all about wins, and nothing else, we are on pace to win 88 games. (.545)

 

The rotation has been buttah. The pen has been plus.

 

Look how few bad or even meh GS'd we've had (starting from opening day until today:)

 

IP/ ER/ H+BB/ K

 

5/2/5/2 Bello W

6/1/3/10 Pivetta L (left tied 0-0)

6/0/4/7 Crawford L (left with lead)

5/1/3/8 Whitlock W

6/0/3/10 Houck W

5/4/6/6 Bello W

5/0/6/3 Pivetta W

4.2/1/5/5 Crawford W (first GS under 5 IP)

4.1/0/8/4 Whitlock L (second game under 5 IP) left with lead

6/0/6/7 Houck W

5.1/1/5/3 Bello L

5/0/6/6 Crawford L (left with the lead)

5/1/6/4 Whitlock L (left with the lead)

5.1/4/12/2 Houck L

4/2/6/4 Criswell W (3rd game under 5 IP)

5.1/2/8/8 Bello W

5.2/0/2/6 Crawford L (left tied 0-0)

4/2/4/1 Whitlock L (4th game under 5 IP)

9/0/3/9 Houck W (shutout)

2/0/1/2 Bernardino L (opener, left with lead)

6/0/3/7 Bello W

6/1/10/6 Crawford W

 

2 bad starts.

1 "meh" start by Criswell

 

In 5 of our 10 losses, our SP left with the lead.

In 2 of the other 5 losses, our SP left with the game tied 0-0.

 

Simply AMAZING!

 

Add one more decent opener start to the list:

3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H+BB, 1K Wink W

Edited April 21, 2024 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

If I rooted for LA, I'd say you can't have it both ways on 2020 -- when Mookie led the majors with 3.6 WAR in 55 games. Granted, it was approximately one-third of a 162-game season -- but if you assume Betts sustained such excellence over a full year (as he has virtually his entire career)... then 3.6 X 3 approaches his career-high MVP season in Boston in 2018.

 

If you look at where he has finished in MVP voting, Mookie already has three top-5s in the NL: two 2nds and a 5th. In Boston, he won one and finished 2nd (also 6th and 8th).

 

Through almost the first month of 2024, Betts has again been the top player in his league, and probably all of baseball; he leads MLB in Offensive WAR and is third in Defensive WAR... while playing a new and vital position... for a first-place team.

 

1. 2020 was a nonseason, period. All kinds of players missed games because of COVID, plus it was a short season, plus basically no fans. So to me what Mookie did in 2020 is irrelevant.

 

2. The WAR's are the best measure of each season, and Mookie's average WAR--for 5 full seasons-- with the Sox was definitely better than the average of 2021-2023 with the Dodgers.

 

3. By the way, I do think Mookie is headed for the HOF. He's that good. But it is a rare player who gets an incredible contract because he's already had a bunch of great seasons and then plays even better baseball with the new team.

 

4. Moreover, a position player, even with a WAR of 10, can only do so much. He's one batter out of 9 and one fielder out of 9. Mookie was fantastic in 2018 (MVP), but that lineup included Beni, JDM, Bogey, Devers, Moreland, et al. And in the outfield he was joined by JBJ and Beni. And on the pitching staff were the good Sale, the good Price, plus ERod,Porcello, Eovaldi, closer Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Wright, et al.

 

5. So my point is that, had the Sox kept Mookie at whatever cost, he would not have had remotely as good a supporting cast, especially pitching, as he had in 2018. Ironically (if you are a Sox fan), the best team for him to be on was and is the Dodgers. He would have been wasted on the Sox.

[moonslav59]

No-one has replied to my point about the fact that MLB has balanced schedules today. I maintain that 84 wins in 2019 is equal to about 88-90 today

 

I disagree. The ALE was not great in 2019.

 

BAL had 108 losses and TOR had 95.

 

The Sox were tied with the Cubs for the best 3rd place team in MLB, but things got tougher in the ALE east after 2019/2020. One could argue from 2021 to today, yes.

[Maxbialystock]

To the posters who feel it's all about wins, and nothing else, we are on pace to win 88 games. (.545)

 

The rotation has been buttah. The pen has been plus.

 

Look how few bad or even meh GS'd we've had (starting from opening day until today:)

 

IP/ ER/ H+BB/ K

 

5/2/5/2 Bello W

6/1/3/10 Pivetta L (left tied 0-0)

6/0/4/7 Crawford L (left with lead)

5/1/3/8 Whitlock W

6/0/3/10 Houck W

5/4/6/6 Bello W

5/0/6/3 Pivetta W

4.2/1/5/5 Crawford W (first GS under 5 IP)

4.1/0/8/4 Whitlock L (second game under 5 IP) left with lead

6/0/6/7 Houck W

5.1/1/5/3 Bello L

5/0/6/6 Crawford L (left with the lead)

5/1/6/4 Whitlock L (left with the lead)

5.1/4/12/2 Houck L

4/2/6/4 Criswell W (3rd game under 5 IP)

5.1/2/8/8 Bello W

5.2/0/2/6 Crawford L (left tied 0-0)

4/2/4/1 Whitlock L (4th game under 5 IP)

9/0/3/9 Houck W (shutout)

2/0/1/2 Bernardino L (opener, left with lead)

6/0/3/7 Bello W

6/1/10/6 Crawford W

 

2 bad starts.

1 "meh" start by Criswell

 

In 5 of our 10 losses, our SP left with the lead.

In 2 of the other 5 losses, our SP left with the game tied 0-0.

 

Simply AMAZING!

 

 

I said that already on the game thread, including the 88 wins. However, I also admitted we still have a lot of ALE games to play and so far the Sox are 0-3.

[mvp 78]

Sox are calling up Heineman due to the Casas injury.

[moonslav59]

I said that already on the game thread, including the 88 wins. However, I also admitted we still have a lot of ALE games to play and so far the Sox are 0-3.

 

Yes, we do.

 

We have a lot vs non ALE teams, as well.

 

We've had 2 bad starts by our rotation in 22 games, and no SP'er has let up more than 4 ER in any start.

 

We have gone 12-10 with a bunch of our best players injured, and some will be coming back, soon. (Casas going down just as he was heating up hurts. I hope he does not miss a lot of games.

 

I'm not predicting greatness. I still expect about a .500 season, but there is reason for hope.

[moonslav59]

Sox are calling up Heineman due to the Casas injury.

 

Wong to play 1B and Dalbec 3B?

[notin]

Wong to play 1B and Dalbec 3B?

 

Heineman is the only position player left on the 40 man roster. He’s not officially “called up”; he’s just traveling with the team until they know the story with Casas.

 

But if Casas did go on the IL, Dalbec plays 1b, Reyes at 3b and Valdez at 2b. Wong does have experience at 2b and 3b, if needed…

[moonslav59]

Heineman is the only position player left on the 40 man roster. He’s not officially “called up”; he’s just traveling with the team until they know the story with Casas.

 

But if Casas did go on the IL, Dalbec plays 1b, Reyes at 3b and Valdez at 2b. Wong does have experience at 2b and 3b, if needed…

 

Makes sense.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, we do.

 

We have a lot vs non ALE teams, as well.

 

We've had 2 bad starts by our rotation in 22 games, and no SP'er has let up more than 4 ER in any start.

 

We have gone 12-10 with a bunch of our best players injured, and some will be coming back, soon. (Casas going down just as he was heating up hurts. I hope he does not miss a lot of games.

 

I'm not predicting greatness. I still expect about a .500 season, but there is reason for hope.

 

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing.

[moonslav59]

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing.

 

This hope is based on some evidence of talent.

 

We all knew our starters had skill, but no history of full seasons of success. That is still the case, but the chances look better, now, than in March.

 

We have not seen the bats do all that much, except homer a lot. We are 12-10 with half our everyday players hurt, Jansen & Martin not looking great and Gio, Pivetta and Whitlock out.

 

There is reason for hope.

[moonslav59]

As much as our subs and depth has been highly criticized, and rightfully so, it's pretty incredible this team is 12-10 with...

 

3 of 5 SP'ers our (one all year): Gio, Pivetta and Whitlock

 

Our three best RP'ers struggling out of the gate: Jansen, Wink & Martin

 

5 of our starting 9 everyday players hurt: Story, Grissom (hasn't played an inning,) O'Neill, Devers and now Casas. These aren't just 5 of 9, they are our best 5 of 9, unless you count Duran as #4 or 5.

 

The next best 4 were believed to be:

LF .749 Duran

DH .700 Yoshida

C .922 Wong/.722 McGuire

3rd OF .483 Rafaela/.770 Abreu

(Not exactly carrying the team on their backs.)

 

One could easily argue we are 12-10 on smoke and mirrors.

One could argue the rotation can not sustain this pace, especially with Nick and Garrett out.

One could argue Gio and Story aren't walking through the door, this summer, Hendriks will likely be too little, too late, and others who are injured may not come back, fully to form.

I get the fact that the odds are still long, but despite all the injuries, the hope of returning players makes me feel better about 2024 than I did all winter long. (Which might not be saying much, since I was as down as anyone up until opening day.)

[Nick]

This year was all about discovery. To see who belongs in majors.

 

Maybe the jury is still out on Whitlock but we at least have 3 young guns going forward in Bello Kutter and Houck.

 

Position wise it appears Duran Abreu and Rafaela are keepers. For a time being we will have to carry Rafaela offensively.

 

So Wong Casas Rafaela Devers Duran and Abreu should play unless someone else better shows up.

 

I look forward to adding Grissom to the 'keepers' category.

 

We need more depth, quality depth that is.

Edited April 21, 2024 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5. So my point is that, had the Sox kept Mookie at whatever cost, he would not have had remotely as good a supporting cast, especially pitching, as he had in 2018. Ironically (if you are a Sox fan), the best team for him to be on was and is the Dodgers. He would have been wasted on the Sox.

 

Opinion noted. Mine is that as a baseball fan -- even if the Sox are dreadful, I have less dread watching them in person or on TV if they feature a sure Hall of Famer playing at the top of his game. A star's talents are never wasted on fans if he entertains.

 

Going forward with all the current injuries, if Breslow doesn't add quality replacements from outside the org -- and there is absolutely no indication he will -- then the Sox will have to start promoting position players from within. Triple A Worcester might not have the star potential comparable to Double A Portland, but bringing in infield gloves like Meidroth, Alvarez or Sogard could help. I'm not worried about their bats, because Boston's infielders can't hit much, either...

 

If Casas is lost for a spell, then Kavadas or Hickey need to come up and offer some thump to the roster.

[Bellhorn04]

So my point is that, had the Sox kept Mookie at whatever cost, he would not have had remotely as good a supporting cast, especially pitching, as he had in 2018. Ironically (if you are a Sox fan), the best team for him to be on was and is the Dodgers. He would have been wasted on the Sox.

 

I love ya Max, but that is one incredibly absurd and indefensible statement.

 

Are the 2024 Red Sox better off having Devers at a cost of $30 million per, or Betts at a cost of $30 million per?

 

Were the 2023 Red Sox better off with Story/Yoshida/Kluber, or with Betts plus $20 million?

 

Do the math.

Edited April 21, 2024 by Bellhorn04