A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Also, any attempts to throw out 2020 are ********. They did the best they could in the face of a pandemic, and the playoffs were totally legit. The Dodgers and Rays were the 2 best teams at the time. Last year's matchup of the Rangers and Diamondbacks was less legit than the 2020 matchup.

[Bellhorn04]

Gratuitous literary reference:

 

Reading some of Max's posts is like reading Kafka. The individual sentences seem to make perfect sense, but the narrative as a whole makes less and less sense as you go on.

[jad]

Gratuitous literary reference:

 

Reading some of Max's posts is like reading Kafka. The individual sentences seem to make perfect sense, but the narrative as a whole makes less and less sense as you go on.

 

Yeah that Kafkesque quality really bugs me.

[Nick]

I think we have individual coice to decide everythat happened in 2020.

 

For me 60 games didn't do it.

 

If one thinks 2020 was mire legit than 2023 then maybe we should cut back on number of regular season games.

Edited April 21, 2024 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we have individual coice to decide everythat happened in 2020.

 

For me 60 games didn't do it.

 

If one thinks 2020 was mire legit than 2023 then maybe we should cut back on number of regular season games.

 

In the 2020 postseason the Dodgers had to win the most playoffs games in history -- 13 out of 18 -- to capture the flag.

 

Even if two summer months were just for seeding, can't say LA didn't earn it in the fall.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we have individual coice to decide everythat happened in 2020.

 

For me 60 games didn't do it.

 

If one thinks 2020 was mire legit than 2023 then maybe we should cut back on number of regular season games.

 

1) 2020 was not the first season with a reduced number of regular season games - not by a long shot.

2) The World Series champion is decided by the playoffs, not by the regular season.

3) We all know we'd be singing a different tune if the Sox won it in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

If you want to throw out the champ for a pandemic year, we should probably throw out all the champs for the World War years too. Plenty of guys were not playing baseball those years for good reason too...

[moonslav59]

I love ya Max, but that is one incredibly absurd and indefensible statement.

 

Are the 2024 Red Sox better off having Devers at a cost of $30 million per, or Betts at a cost of $30 million per?

 

Were the 2023 Red Sox better off with Story/Yoshida/Kluber, or with Betts plus $20 million?

 

Do the math.

 

That's not the point he made. He didn't say the Sox would be worse. He said the supporting cast around Betts would not be like it was in 2018.

 

That's true for Devers, now, it was true for Boegy, JD, Nate & Sale from 2020 to their last day here, and it would have been for Betts, too.

[Bellhorn04]

That's not the point he made. He didn't say the Sox would be worse. He said the supporting cast around Betts would not be like it was in 2018.

 

That's true for Devers, now, it was true for Boegy, JD, Nate & Sale from 2020 to their last day here, and it would have been for Betts, too.

 

He also said "the best team for him to be on was and is the Dodgers."

 

Actually, I'm not even 100% sure what that's supposed to mean, so I may have misinterpreted.

[moonslav59]

He also said "the best team for him to be on was and is the Dodgers."

 

Actually, I'm not even 100% sure what that's supposed to mean, so I may have misinterpreted.

 

Because the Dodgers have had and still have a better supporting cast.

 

The comp was between Betts and Devers. There were a few years between the possible Betts extension and the when the Devers extension kicked in. In those years, our budgets were lower, and we would not have "filled in" around Betts, had we kept him and let Devers walk, after his control years were up, which is this year.

 

2020

2021

2022

2023

 

Now, imagine Betts on the '24 team without Devers. Yes, we'd be better, but still not a contender, and Betts would have had a better team around him in LA, every year, except maybe 2021.

[notin]

If you want to throw out the champ for a pandemic year, we should probably throw out all the champs for the World War years too. Plenty of guys were not playing baseball those years for good reason too...

 

Finally!!

 

I am so f***ing sick of posts about the 1945 Detroit Tigers!! Eddie Mayo sucked!!

[Bellhorn04]

Because the Dodgers have had and still have a better supporting cast.

 

The comp was between Betts and Devers. There were a few years between the possible Betts extension and the when the Devers extension kicked in. In those years, our budgets were lower, and we would not have "filled in" around Betts, had we kept him and let Devers walk, after his control years were up, which is this year.

 

2020

2021

2022

2023

 

Now, imagine Betts on the '24 team without Devers. Yes, we'd be better, but still not a contender, and Betts would have had a better team around him in LA, every year, except maybe 2021.

 

It still doesn't mean Betts would be "wasted" on the Sox. That's a ridiculous statement on its face. And if they had Betts, they would likely have done some things differently. Butterfly effect and all that.

[Randy Red Sox]

I disagree. The ALE was not great in 2019.

 

BAL had 108 losses and TOR had 95.

 

The Sox were tied with the Cubs for the best 3rd place team in MLB, but things got tougher in the ALE east after 2019/2020. One could argue from 2021 to today, yes.

 

of course you would disagree. Despite what you say the Sox are now getting the benefit of more "easy" games against such powerhouses as Pittsburgh

[moonslav59]

of course you would disagree. Despite what you say the Sox are now getting the benefit of more "easy" games against such powerhouses as Pittsburgh

 

Not compared to 2019.

 

Yes, compared to 3-4 years ago, for sure.

 

Was BAL & TOR as good in 2019 as 2024? Do you disagree?

[Randy Red Sox]

Not compared to 2019.

 

Yes, compared to 3-4 years ago, for sure.

 

Was BAL & TOR as good in 2019 as 2024? Do you disagree?

 

listen I am saying it is much easier TODAY and the last several years with a balanced schedule. Proof in the pudding is that the Sox have finished last in the division 3 of the last 4 years

[moonslav59]

The Sox are tied for 4th and last place at 12-10.

 

That record would lead the NL West and AL West. (I know some hate to hear certain facts.) Yes, we have to play better than most teams to compete in the division we are in. That is a fact, too.

 

15-6 CLE

14-7 NYY

13-7 BAL

13-8 KCR

12-9 TOR

12-10 BOS Tied for 6th best out of 15

12-10 TBR

11-10 DET

11-11 TEX

10-10 SEA

 

MLB

We are tied for 12th out of 30 teams in winning %, but tied for 11th with Cincy at 11-9 in GB leaders.

 

[moonslav59]

We know this team will it some rough patches, going forward. Some might be long, and we may not recover from it or them.

 

Our roster has too many holes and too many injuries to sustain good play, as it stands, right now. We need to get some players back, but we also need a lot of other things to go right- like our SP'ers not going through long periods of struggle. We need our offense to improve and be more consistent.

 

The homers are nice, but we need men on base, better baserunning, and to somehow improve our defense. Maybe Grissom can improve our 2B D. Maybe we pick up a SS who knows how to field. Maybe, our corner IF has a good year on D. (Devers has before.)

 

This is a long season. To me, there is more reason to be optimistic than there was in the winter, but hopes were so low, then, that might not mean all that much. I just think being 12-10 with so many key players out, gives hope that when many return, things can stay the same (88 win pace) or even improve.

 

[moonslav59]

If we could improve on these numbers, it would help:

 

10 HRs with men on base (344 PAs) and 8 of these 10 w just 1 man on

 

19 HRs with bases empty (493 PAs)

 

[moonslav59]

Before today's game, only 21 batters in all of MLB have had more PAs and a higher OPS vs LHPs than Refsnyder, since 2022:

 

The guy has to play vs LHPs. (LF or DH preferred.)

 

Some notable vs LHPs with 200+ PAs since 2022:

1.055 Wm Contreras

1.037 Goldschmidt

1.035 Betts

 

10. JD Martinez .962

21. Bogey .891

23. Refsnyder .885

 

101. Devers .778

189. Verdugo .660

 

Casas .815 in 146 PAs

Story .778 in 142

Yoshi .735 in 162

Dalbec .714 in 146

Duran .679 in 120 (.805 since 2023 in 78 PAs)

Wong .546 in 144

 

[moonslav59]

The Yanks just knocked the Rays into last place.

 

BAL & TOR are winning, so far, today.

 

Sox are in 4th. If TOR loses, we are in 3rd.

[moonslav59]

Updated OPS Leaders (no min PAs)

1.209 O'Neill (on IL)

1.169 Refsnyder (SSS)

.859 Wong (2 away from team lead in rbi)

.857 Casas (10 rbi leads the Sox)

.830 Abreu (2nd on team with 4 SBs)

.758 Duran (8 SBs)

.718 McGuire (10 rbi is T1st on Sox)

.700 Yoshida (10 rbi is T1st on Sox)

.650 Romy (tiny sample size)

.617 Story (was heating up before season-ending injury)

 

.553 DHam

.494 Rafaela (3 SBs)

.489 Valdez (9 rbi is one away from team lead)

.441 Reyes

.188 Dalbec

(These last 5 are very concerning. They have over 225 PAs, combined!)

 

[moonslav59]

To the posters who feel it's all about wins, and nothing else, we are on pace to win 88 games. (.545)

 

The rotation has been buttah. The pen has been plus.

 

Look how few bad or even meh GS'd we've had (starting from opening day until today:)

 

IP/ ER/ H+BB/ K

 

5/2/5/2 Bello W

6/1/3/10 Pivetta L (left tied 0-0)

6/0/4/7 Crawford L (left with lead)

5/1/3/8 Whitlock W

6/0/3/10 Houck W

5/4/6/6 Bello W

5/0/6/3 Pivetta W

4.2/1/5/5 Crawford W (first GS under 5 IP)

4.1/0/8/4 Whitlock L (second game under 5 IP) left with lead

6/0/6/7 Houck W

5.1/1/5/3 Bello L

5/0/6/6 Crawford L (left with the lead)

5/1/6/4 Whitlock L (left with the lead)

5.1/4/12/2 Houck L

4/2/6/4 Criswell W (3rd game under 5 IP)

5.1/2/8/8 Bello W

5.2/0/2/6 Crawford L (left tied 0-0)

4/2/4/1 Whitlock L (4th game under 5 IP)

9/0/3/9 Houck W (shutout)

2/0/1/2 Bernardino L (opener, left with lead)

6/0/3/7 Bello W

6/1/10/6 Crawford W

 

2 bad starts.

1 "meh" start by Criswell

 

In 5 of our 10 losses, our SP left with the lead.

In 2 of the other 5 losses, our SP left with the game tied 0-0.

 

Simply AMAZING!

Add one more decent opener start to the list:

3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H+BB, 1K Wink W

 

Updated

[Nick]

Abreu has raised his OPS to very respectable .830. Cora was right. He needed more at bats and unfortunately it came via Story being out for the season.

 

We can thank Houston for exchanging a rental in the form of Vazquez, who incidentally did not start for them. It was more of a depth addition for Houston.

 

The Twins gave Vaz a 3-year $30M contract. Vaz had .598 OPS last year in 102 games and he's now hitting .380 OPS. We dodged the bullet.

 

Hopefully we'll make a decisive move on trade deadline this year. I don't see us going anywhere.

 

We'll have some tradeable pieces.

[moonslav59]

Abreu has raised his OPS to very respectable .830. Cora was right. He needed more at bats and unfortunately it came via Story being out for the season.

 

We can thank Houston for exchanging a rental in the form of Vazquez, who incidentally did not start for them. It was more of a depth addition for Houston.

 

The Twins gave Vaz a 3-year $30M contract. Vaz had .598 OPS last year in 102 games and he's now hitting .380 OPS. We dodged the bullet.

 

Hopefully we'll make a decisive move on trade deadline this year. I don't see us going anywhere.

 

We'll have some tradeable pieces.

 

Bloom had his chances to make more moves like the Vaz one, which many hated at the time.

 

That was one of his biggest faults.

[dgalehouse]

Abreu has raised his OPS to very respectable .830. Cora was right. He needed more at bats and unfortunately it came via Story being out for the season.

 

We can thank Houston for exchanging a rental in the form of Vazquez, who incidentally did not start for them. It was more of a depth addition for Houston.

 

The Twins gave Vaz a 3-year $30M contract. Vaz had .598 OPS last year in 102 games and he's now hitting .380 OPS. We dodged the bullet.

 

Hopefully we'll make a decisive move on trade deadline this year. I don't see us going anywhere.

 

We'll have some tradeable pieces.

 

Streak buster.

[oldtimer]

Updated OPS Leaders (no min PAs)

1.209 O'Neill (on IL)

1.169 Refsnyder (SSS)

.859 Wong (2 away from team lead in rbi)

.857 Casas (10 rbi leads the Sox)

.830 Abreu (2nd on team with 4 SBs)

.758 Duran (8 SBs)

.718 McGuire (10 rbi is T1st on Sox)

.700 Yoshida (10 rbi is T1st on Sox)

.650 Romy (tiny sample size)

.617 Story (was heating up before season-ending injury)

 

.553 DHam

.494 Rafaela (3 SBs)

.489 Valdez (9 rbi is one away from team lead)

.441 Reyes

.188 Dalbec

(These last 5 are very concerning. They have over 225 PAs, combined!)

 

 

I know I harp on this, but if you have a guy who goes 1 for 30 AB (2 were walks)and strikes out 19 times would you keep him on the 40 man? The same guy is a marginal fielder. Why not bring up a vaunted rookie who is much morew valuable defensively and might just get a hit here and there? The Sox management inaction is frustrating. Dalbec is the player and it is not his first time around the May pole. What makes management feel things would change?

[Maxbialystock]

I know I harp on this, but if you have a guy who goes 1 for 30 AB (2 were walks)and strikes out 19 times would you keep him on the 40 man? The same guy is a marginal fielder. Why not bring up a vaunted rookie who is much morew valuable defensively and might just get a hit here and there? The Sox management inaction is frustrating. Dalbec is the player and it is not his first time around the May pole. What makes management feel things would change?

 

Sox are 7-3 in the 10 games in which Dalbec has played.

[notin]

I know I harp on this, but if you have a guy who goes 1 for 30 AB (2 were walks)and strikes out 19 times would you keep him on the 40 man? The same guy is a marginal fielder. Why not bring up a vaunted rookie who is much morew valuable defensively and might just get a hit here and there? The Sox management inaction is frustrating. Dalbec is the player and it is not his first time around the May pole. What makes management feel things would change?

 

Right now, the Sox do not have any position players on their 40 man roster that are not in MLB. They called up minor league journeyman catcher Tyler Heineman once Casas was on the IL, but not because he earned the promotion and not because they needed a catcher; he’s was promoted because there was no one else left…

[notin]

Bloom had his chances to make more moves like the Vaz one, which many hated at the time.

 

That was one of his biggest faults.

 

Greg Weissert has been a huge plus so far as well…

[moonslav59]

I know I harp on this, but if you have a guy who goes 1 for 30 AB (2 were walks)and strikes out 19 times would you keep him on the 40 man? The same guy is a marginal fielder. Why not bring up a vaunted rookie who is much morew valuable defensively and might just get a hit here and there? The Sox management inaction is frustrating. Dalbec is the player and it is not his first time around the May pole. What makes management feel things would change?

 

No argument from me. We don't really have a 1B/3B guy who is ML ready, but I'd still do it.