Chris Sale traded to Braves

[Bellhorn04]

The part of the trade that upsets me the most is about the idea we will not really be spending the money saved on the trade, unless we contort our thinking to convince ourselves we will.

 

???

 

We'll all be watching the payroll numbers, that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

7 on the MLB list (behind Strider, Harris, Waters, Muller, Elder and Shoemake). At the time of his callup in August of '22, he was probably their best prospect. He was named their MiLB Player of the Year in '22.

 

Prospects Live had him #2:

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/atlanta-braves-2022-top-30-prospects

 

PHYSICAL Tall and physical frame with room to add good weight. Has above-average athleticism and twitch, but is likely to lose some as he ages. This portends a move to third base or second base long term, but it’s not a body that will require a substantial amount of maintenance long term.

 

STRENGTHS Cool, calm, and collected at the plate. Radiates a maturity beyond his years, makes good swing decisions, has an above-average rate of contact, and gets on-base at a plus rate. Best contact is still center-oppo but will show the ability to turn on inside pitches and drive them to his pull-side. High amount of barreled line-drive contact. Shows plus raw power in game, should translate to above-average to plus power production long term.

 

WEAKNESSES Fringe-average defensive player, likely not a shortstop long term, limited speed and range. Likely ends up elsewhere in the infield long term. Still learning to drive the ball to his pull-side, makes best contact center-oppo. Likely a fringe-average runner at maturation.

 

SUMMARY One of the most exciting young players in the Atlanta system. Shows feel to hit, a discerning eye at the plate, and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He has versatility defensively and an above-average arm. Has true star upside with an everyday player floor. Not a freak twitch athlete but a player with good baseball skills and a fair amount of polish for a younger prospect with little pro experience entering 2021. Showed well across two levels of A-Ball. Likely to end up a bat first third baseman long term with the ability to get on base and impact the ball.

[mvp 78]

???

 

We'll all be watching the payroll numbers, that's for sure.

 

None of us know what their budget it. Many of us projected a big splurge last offseason. Nada. Then they were going go up to the 2nd line this offseason. Now it looks like payroll may be lower than '23? Until pitchers and catchers report, I'm not sure we have a good handle on what the budget is. Anything else is us just projecting our personal biases onto the budget and where it is currently at.

 

If ownership continues on the next few years with a Colorado Rockies budget, but LA Dodgers ticket prices, I think they will be doing a great long term disservice to the fanbase. Red Sox fans have long memories.

[moonslav59]

???

 

We'll all be watching the payroll numbers, that's for sure.

 

It's not just about ending up $10M below the tax line and saying that was the money saved by the Sale trade, and they did not spend it. Or, if we end up $5-6M under and saying we only spent half of the "savings."

 

Many feel, we have a secret budget for 2024. Did this trade mean we will spend $10M more, based on those savings, or will we adjust that budget $10M lower.

 

It's hard to know.

 

Personally, if we end up $5 or more million under the tax line, I'll view it as not spending that money.

 

Remember, we also "saved money" by trading Dugo and Urias, too. Whose money will we have spent. That's what I meant by contorting ourselves deciding, if we end up spending it, or not.

 

When we traded Beni, some felt like the money saved went to sign Renfroe. Others pointed out that we could say it was spent on Marwin.

[moonslav59]

None of us know what their budget it. Many of us projected a big splurge last offseason. Nada. Then they were going go up to the 2nd line this offseason. Now it looks like payroll may be lower than '23? Until pitchers and catchers report, I'm not sure we have a good handle on what the budget is. Anything else is us just projecting our personal biases onto the budget and where it is currently at.

 

If ownership continues on the next few years with a Colorado Rockies budget, but LA Dodgers ticket prices, I think they will be doing a great long term disservice to the fanbase. Red Sox fans have long memories.

 

I hoped we'd go up to the second line, this year, but I never expected it or even going to the first line. All bets are off on our budget and have been for years, including the year we went over, when it looked like we did not want to do that.

 

When Werner said "full throttle," it did get my hopes up on the budget area, but it's all been lies upon lies. I call it a sham.

[mvp 78]

Many feel, we have a secret budget for 2024.

 

Secret budget? How much did you guys drink this holiday season?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Grissom raked in Triple A (.330 BA, .921 OPS, in 468 PA), but we Worcester fans are always wary of minor mashers... ex: Dalbec hit 33 homers last year, so he must be MLB ready!

 

Then there are these splits for batters:

 

BB vs. Ks in AAA

Dalbec 72 vs. 212

Duran 66 vs. 150

Rafaela 12 vs 48

Abreu 59 vs. 74

Casas 54 vs. 76

Grissom 56 vs. 66

 

If the new guy has a better eye... or makes better contact... than Wilyer or Full-Count Casas -- VG could be Very Good.

[mvp 78]

Grissom raked in Triple A (.330 BA, .921 OPS, in 468 PA), but we Worcester fans are always wary of minor mashers... ex: Dalbec hit 33 homers last year, so he must be MLB ready!

 

Then there are these splits for batters:

 

BB vs. Ks in AAA

Dalbec 72 vs. 212

Duran 66 vs. 150

Rafaela 12 vs 48

Abreu 59 vs. 74

Casas 54 vs. 76

Grissom 56 vs. 66

 

If the new guy has a better eye... or makes better contact... than Wilyer or Full-Count Casas -- VG could be Very Good.

 

Dalbec is 5.5 years older than Grissom. Grissom may not work out, but he needs to be given a longer rope than he was given in ATL. Good thing in BOS only Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez play the same position as him.

 

The knock on Grissom's bat was that he hasn't shown in game power yet. His contact skills are good, but chases out of the zone a little too much.

[moonslav59]

Secret budget? How much did you guys drink this holiday season?

 

Oh, you know the budget limit?

 

Do tell....

 

(I don't drink.)

[jad]

"We" did not save any money; nor do "we" have a secret budget. Ownership saved money; we have a worse product because of it.

[Old Red]

Sale came to Boston, because he wanted to win. Now Sale went to Atlanta, because he wanted to win.How the mighty has fallen.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is 5.5 years older than Grissom. Grissom may not work out, but he needs to be given a longer rope than he was given in ATL. Good thing in BOS only Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez play the same position as him.

 

The knock on Grissom's bat was that he hasn't shown in game power yet. His contact skills are good, but chases out of the zone a little too much.

 

Yes. he's almost 23 and maybe can improve his power. A nice OBP is pretty damn good, too.

 

The 236 PA sample size in the majors, spread out over 2 seasons, is not enough to get a good read on this kid, but he did have a .339 OBP.

His SLG is .407, but he did average about 14 HRs and 30 2B+3B per 650 PAs. That's not great, but not horrible, either. He had a .501 SLG in AAA (.477 career in 4 years of the minors.)

 

OBP often does not transfer over from the minors to the majors all that well, but his .419 OBP in AAA and .407 overall is really nice.

[notin]

Grissom raked in Triple A (.330 BA, .921 OPS, in 468 PA), but we Worcester fans are always wary of minor mashers... ex: Dalbec hit 33 homers last year, so he must be MLB ready!

 

Then there are these splits for batters:

 

BB vs. Ks in AAA

Dalbec 72 vs. 212

Duran 66 vs. 150

Rafaela 12 vs 48

Abreu 59 vs. 74

Casas 54 vs. 76

Grissom 56 vs. 66

 

If the new guy has a better eye... or makes better contact... than Wilyer or Full-Count Casas -- VG could be Very Good.

 

You seriously don’t see the difference between a 22yo in AAA and a 28yo in AAA?

[cp176]

Kind of looks like I'm on the island again. I understand the trade and I get why people are upset actually over Sale's injury prone last few years but I appreciated watching him at his best I guess and won't criticize him in any way. He is one of the most intense and one of the best pitchers when healthy that I ever saw. We were a very lucky franchise to have him. Oh well, I'm old and loyal to a fault. I never gave up on him and I hope he bounces back well this year. To be honest, he was one of the only reasons that I even watched them at all last year - ever hopeful.

[Old Red]

"We" did not save any money; nor do "we" have a secret budget. Ownership saved money; we have a worse product because of it.

 

Some food for thought. Would the Red Sox have signed the Big G if they didn’t know they had some money savings coming from the Sale deal that was most likely in the works? They are still going to pay Sale $17M, so if added to the Big G’s $19M I can’t see as that as being a savings, so to say the Red Sox have an extra $10M to spend from Sale I don’t know if JH sees it that way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You seriously don’t see the difference between a 22yo in AAA and a 28yo in AAA?

 

Six years. But what's your point?

 

I just read Grissom chases out of the zone, but the numbers show that he made better contact at the final level on the way up than other Red Sox prospects. I'm not saying his hand-eye is as good as Devers, and he'll be hitting liners off pitches that bounce, but -- for optimistic fans trying to look beyond the bad D reports -- does that BB/K ratio look at all positive to you?

[moonslav59]

Kind of looks like I'm on the island again. I understand the trade and I get why people are upset actually over Sale's injury prone last few years but I appreciated watching him at his best I guess and won't criticize him in any way. He is one of the most intense and one of the best pitchers when healthy that I ever saw. We were a very lucky franchise to have him. Oh well, I'm old and loyal to a fault. I never gave up on him and I hope he bounces back well this year. To be honest, he was one of the only reasons that I even watched them at all last year - ever hopeful.

 

I really enjoyed watching Sale pitch, too. It was sad knowing these injuries were frustrating to him as much as us.

 

He was one of the top 3 Sox pitchers I have ever seen (Pedro & Clemens.) I liked the extension we gave him. Not many did or will admit it, now.

 

I felt better about him being ready to pitch in 2024 than I did before '23, '22, '21 and '20.

 

I like this Grissom guy, though, and if Sale does not pitch much, next season, I'll feel better about this trade, but I will miss Sale.

 

[moonslav59]

Six years. But what's your point?

 

I just read Grissom chases out of the zone, but the numbers show that he made better contact at the final level on the way up than other Red Sox prospects. I'm not saying his hand-eye is as good as Devers, and he'll be hitting liners off pitches that bounce, but -- for optimistic fans trying to look beyond the bad D reports -- does that BB/K ratio look at all positive to you?

 

The bad D reports are for SS. I think he will be an average defender at 2B, at worst, and could easily be a plus by season's end.

 

Our D was horrible, last year, at 2B. I can't see him being worse than the carousel we watched, last season.

 

We were 29th at 2B in Outs Above Average at -13. Bal was 30th at -14.

 

-4 EValdez

-3 Urias

-2 Reyes

-2 Kike

-2 Arroyo

-1 Turner

 

Way different sample sizes on this list. Their success rates tell a better story on who was the worst:

-7% Turner (gone)

-4% Kike (gone)

-4% Reyes

-3% Urias (gone)

-3% Valdez

-1% Arroyo (gone)

 

Grissom has been at -4% from 2022-2023, combined, but the sample size is small.

 

In 368 innings at SS, his DRS is -3. (It's -7 at SS in 168 innings.)

 

UZR/150

-7.6 at 2B (-0.9 Range, -0.7 Error Rate, -0.5 DP Rate)

-52.5 at SS

 

Maybe I'm being a homer thinking he can be a plus on D at 2B.

[Old Red]

I really enjoyed watching Sale pitch, too. It was sad knowing these injuries were frustrating to him as much as us.

 

He was one of the top 3 Sox pitchers I have ever seen (Pedro & Clemens.) I liked the extension we gave him. Not many did or will admit it, now.

 

I felt better about him being ready to pitch in 2024 than I did before '23, '22, '21 and '20.

 

I like this Grissom guy, though, and if Sale does not pitch much, next season, I'll feel better about this trade, but I will miss Sale.

 

I said it was a big mistake to give Sale the extension the day it happened. Not, because he wasn’t good enough, but it was more likely than not to have TJ, which he did, and it went all down hill from there. One of the worst Red Sox contracts. It’s to bad, because when Sale was healthy he was a very good pitcher, but from TJ on he was healthy very often.

[Old Red]

The bad D reports are for SS. I think he will be an average defender at 2B, at worst, and could easily be a plus by season's end.

 

Our D was horrible, last year, at 2B. I can't see him being worse than the carousel we watched, last season.

 

We were 29th at 2B in Outs Above Average at -13. Bal was 30th at -14.

 

-4 EValdez

-3 Urias

-2 Reyes

-2 Kike

-2 Arroyo

-1 Turner

 

Way different sample sizes on this list. Their success rates tell a better story on who was the worst:

-7% Turner (gone)

-4% Kike (gone)

-4% Reyes

-3% Urias (gone)

-3% Valdez

-1% Arroyo (gone)

 

Grissom has been at -4% from 2022-2023, combined, but the sample size is small.

 

In 368 innings at SS, his DRS is -3. (It's -7 at SS in 168 innings.)

 

UZR/150

-7.6 at 2B (-0.9 Range, -0.7 Error Rate, -0.5 DP Rate)

-52.5 at SS

 

Maybe I'm being a homer thinking he can be a plus on D at 2B.

 

I read somewhere that out of 2B with 350 innings played he was 68th out of 74 in some kind of a D stat. I don’t get into that kind of stuff, but I take it that doesn’t mean he was that good.

[moonslav59]

Grissom has only 64 games in MLB under his belt, and those are spread out over 2 seasons. His 236 PAs are 106 more than needed to graduate from official rookie status.

 

I wonder where he'd be placed on the Sox prospects rankings, if he did not graduate- maybe...

 

1. Anthony

2. Mayer

3. Teel

4. Rafaela

5. Bleis

6. Grissom (maybe as high as 4 or 5)

7. Yorke

8. Perales

9. Abreu

10. Wikelman or Cespedes

[cp176]

I really enjoyed watching Sale pitch, too. It was sad knowing these injuries were frustrating to him as much as us.

 

He was one of the top 3 Sox pitchers I have ever seen (Pedro & Clemens.) I liked the extension we gave him. Not many did or will admit it, now.

 

I felt better about him being ready to pitch in 2024 than I did before '23, '22, '21 and '20.

 

I like this Grissom guy, though, and if Sale does not pitch much, next season, I'll feel better about this trade, but I will miss Sale.

 

 

I agree. Top 3 in my book as well. I also liked the extension. Quite a few pitchers have come back from TJ surgery and have produced at an outstanding level. He certainly is as tough and gritty as the best of them. Clearly worth the risk. Hindsight beats us up on this one. We appear to have posters here who just knew ahead of time that he was going to never be what he once was. Good for them. It was worth the risk. Also, I wasn't prepared for JH to all of sudden be so budgetarily(if that is a word) conscious that an extension to Sale would ever be an issue to this franchise. Oh well - it's a done deal and I hope the trade works out for both parties.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not just about ending up $10M below the tax line and saying that was the money saved by the Sale trade, and they did not spend it. Or, if we end up $5-6M under and saying we only spent half of the "savings."

 

Many feel, we have a secret budget for 2024. Did this trade mean we will spend $10M more, based on those savings, or will we adjust that budget $10M lower.

 

It's hard to know.

 

Personally, if we end up $5 or more million under the tax line, I'll view it as not spending that money.

 

Remember, we also "saved money" by trading Dugo and Urias, too. Whose money will we have spent. That's what I meant by contorting ourselves deciding, if we end up spending it, or not.

 

When we traded Beni, some felt like the money saved went to sign Renfroe. Others pointed out that we could say it was spent on Marwin.

 

Personally I think those particular contortions are a bit silly. Money saved goes into the pool. Money spent comes out of the pool.

[mvp 78]

Grissom has only 64 games in MLB under his belt, and those are spread out over 2 seasons. His 236 PAs are 106 more than needed to graduate from official rookie status.

 

I wonder where he'd be placed on the Sox prospects rankings, if he did not graduate- maybe...

 

1. Anthony

2. Mayer

3. Teel

4. Rafaela

5. Bleis

6. Grissom (maybe as high as 4 or 5)

7. Yorke

8. Perales

9. Abreu

10. Wikelman or Cespedes

 

Probably 3rd or 4th.

[Hugh2]

Grissom has only 64 games in MLB under his belt, and those are spread out over 2 seasons. His 236 PAs are 106 more than needed to graduate from official rookie status.

 

I wonder where he'd be placed on the Sox prospects rankings, if he did not graduate- maybe...

 

1. Anthony

2. Mayer

3. Teel

4. Rafaela

5. Bleis

6. Grissom (maybe as high as 4 or 5)

7. Yorke

8. Perales

9. Abreu

10. Wikelman or Cespedes

 

You might be right, but I think his ceiling might be higher (ceiling in terms of ranking) Teel was ranked end of year by pipeline at #88 when Grissom was promoted to the majors in the summer of 22 he was ranked 77 by baseball america.

 

Two different ranking bodies but the closeness in status eludes that at their peak two scouts could give you two different answers on who is better. That might make his ceiling #3. He's blatantly a better prospect than Yorke, so I think that 3-6 window is appropriate. He's definteily not on the same tier as Anthony/Mayer.

[moonslav59]

I said it was a big mistake to give Sale the extension the day it happened. Not, because he wasn’t good enough, but it was more likely than not to have TJ, which he did, and it went all down hill from there. One of the worst Red Sox contracts. It’s to bad, because when Sale was healthy he was a very good pitcher, but from TJ on he was not healthy very often.

 

Yes, and he did not have TJS until after the extension. I saw it like this. They extended him to $145M/5, which if healthy would be a steal. I think they felt a TJS was likely and that he'd be worth $145M/4, even if he missed a full season. While $38M x 4 was a lot of money for a great SP'er back in 2019, it was not absurd, and certainly is not, now. (Ages 30-34)

 

I can understand those who disliked the extension. He was already showing signs that TJS was near, and sometimes, it takes 18 months to get back to form, that could be 1.5 to 2 seasons missed depending on the timing of the TJS.

 

[moonslav59]

Personally I think those particular contortions are a bit silly. Money saved goes into the pool. Money spent comes out of the pool.

 

If the deal was made to save JH $10M, and the money is not spent, it makes the trade worse. I don't think that is a silly position to take.

 

I understand that if the budget is set at a set number between $10-20M below the tax line, dumping $10M of Sale's contract means we have $10M more to spend than otherwise, but in the overall view, spending up to the tax line means we spent Sale's money "saved," and if it spent well, it's a plus to the trade.

[moonslav59]

You might be right, but I think his ceiling might be higher (ceiling in terms of ranking) Teel was ranked end of year by pipeline at #88 when Grissom was promoted to the majors in the summer of 22 he was ranked 77 by baseball america.

 

Two different ranking bodies but the closeness in status eludes that at their peak two scouts could give you two different answers on who is better. That might make his ceiling #3. He's blatantly a better prospect than Yorke, so I think that 3-6 window is appropriate. He's definteily not on the same tier as Anthony/Mayer.

 

Well said. I think this kid will improve.

[Hugh2]

If the deal was made to save JH $10M, and the money is not spent, it makes the trade worse. I don't think that is a silly position to take.

 

I understand that if the budget is set at a set number between $10-20M below the tax line, dumping $10M of Sale's contract means we have $10M more to spend than otherwise, but in the overall view, spending up to the tax line means we spent Sale's money "saved," and if it spent well, it's a plus to the trade.

 

When Grissom graduated he was a top 100 prospect in baseball. He will be 23 all of next year and comes with 6 years of team control.

 

It is blatantly obvious that this trade was all about getting Grissom in the door.

 

Any team, with the financial position to do so would have done the same, including the likes of LA and NY. This was never a salary dump. If it was they would have found a team who would have taken a larger porition of his salary and taken back a much lesser return.

 

I also don't agree that this is any way handcuffs the Sox (saving only 10 million instead of more). I'm not defending the front office as a whole, but no matter what people want to say they've been pretty consistant with total money spent and what they've said. Sure, they've signed some bad contracts, ignored home grown talent, refused to be serious on the big boys. But they've consistantly spent up to the tax line, and when they've felt they had a chance to win gone above it.

 

Sales money with or without this trade was off the books at the end of this year. If there was a financial decision to be made that would put them over the cap this year, and they thought they had a legit shot at winning, they would just do it, and they can reset next year.

[mvp 78]

When Grissom graduated he was a top 100 prospect in baseball. He will be 23 all of next year and comes with 6 years of team control.

 

It is blatantly obvious that this trade was all about getting Grissom in the door.

 

Any team, with the financial position to do so would have done the same, including the likes of LA and NY. This was never a salary dump. If it was they would have found a team who would have taken a larger porition of his salary and taken back a much lesser return.

 

I also don't agree that this is any way handcuffs the Sox (saving only 10 million instead of more). I'm not defending the front office as a whole, but no matter what people want to say they've been pretty consistant with total money spent and what they've said. Sure, they've signed some bad contracts, ignored home grown talent, refused to be serious on the big boys. But they've consistantly spent up to the tax line, and when they've felt they had a chance to win gone above it.

 

Sales money with or without this trade was off the books at the end of this year. If there was a financial decision to be made that would put them over the cap this year, and they thought they had a legit shot at winning, they would just do it, and they can reset next year.

 

He's definitely ahead of Yorke. Bleis isn't a top 100 prospect after his lost season due to injury. He had a longer stretch of MiLB offensive production than Rafaela, but doesn't have the 80 defense. Teel was a 1st round talent who hasn't slowed down since joining the Sox. If he's ahead of Teel, it's only because of sample size. I'd put him 4th just barely ahead of Rafaela. I think his bat will play at the MLB level and that he'll be ok at 2B. Rafaela will play a GG CF, but I have loads of questions about his hit tool.