Chris Sale traded to Braves

[mvp 78]

Terrible, terrible argument, Hugh. I can't believe you made it.

 

We'd be a couple games better right now with Sale. We'd have 3 studs instead of 2.

 

We've had 6 bullpen games and lost 4 of them.

 

The fact our overall pitching has been excellent doesn't mean having a better pitcher wouldn't improve our record. It's just simple logic and math.

 

^^^

[Duran Is The Man]

the sox are 12th in runs scored, 2nd in er allowed and 2nd in era.

 

The truth is, up until now, we haven't needed sale, we've needed hitting. The sale trade hasn't hurt us.

 

Let's dig deeper. Chris sale is good, very good when he's healthy, aside from a couple duds he was lights out for us last year......for 20 games. The most he has pitched since 2019, he's up to 9 this year.

 

Chris sale was gone after this year, and the sox cashed him in for 6 years of a vaugh grissom, 22 at the time, who hit at every level with a lifetime .863 ops in the minors reaching the bigs at 21.

 

Now, you can't argue with the results, grissom sucks. Did he just completely turn into a bust the day he was traded to the sox? Or could it be that he's young, pressing, and after being injured and having no spring training his timing is completely off? Given the small sample size i'm perfectly happy throwing my hat in the ring on that later statement.

 

It's very fair to say that as of right now the trade doesn't look great, but there's every reason to still like it long term, and there's plenty of time for grissom to return more value than sale will in 2024. He was 5 years of team control left after this year.

 

With that said, it's time to send him down to the minors. He obviously needs more time to get his timing back, work on some adjustments, and do it in an enviroment where he's not hurting the big league club.

 

lololololololol

[a700hitter]

In the long run the trade will look good? Please. Grissom might still be playing after Sale is gone, but the trade will never look good.

[notin]

Terrible, terrible argument, Hugh. I can't believe you made it.

 

We'd be a couple games better right now with Sale. We'd have 3 studs instead of 2.

 

We've had 6 bullpen games and lost 4 of them.

 

The fact our overall pitching has been excellent doesn't mean having a better pitcher wouldn't improve our record. It's just simple logic and math.

 

There's really no excuse for having that many bullpen games. The Sox still need pitching depth...

[notin]

In the long run the trade will look good? Please. Grissom might still be playing after Sale is gone, but the trade will never look good.

 

It's not working out, but given what Sale has and has not done in the past 4 years, I totally understand why this deal was made.

 

But I can't rank this trade anywhere near the Betts trade, and not even with the Bagwell trade.

 

And I think if the Sox had any inclination Sale would actually be healthy, they either don't make this deal or trade Sale for a lot more and pay a lot less, if they pay anything at all...

[moonslav59]

There's really no excuse for having that many bullpen games. The Sox still need pitching depth...

 

They should have and could have signed more SP'er depth, even if to minor league deals. Criswell and Uwasawa were not enough.

 

That being said, we did lose Gio for the season, and Pivetta, Bello, and Whit for a few games. That is hard for most teams to cover.

 

No excuses: we dropped the ball on this.

[notin]

They should have and could have signed more SP'er depth, even if to minor league deals. Criswell and Uwasawa were not enough.

 

That being said, we did lose Gio for the season, and Pivetta, Bello, and Whit for a few games. That is hard for most teams to cover.

 

No excuses: we dropped the ball on this.

 

There were plenty of experienced arms who signed MiLB deals. The Sox signed none of them. Even if that starter comes through with a 5.00 ERA, it is still better than burning out the bullpen every 5 games. That will come back to haunt the sox later if they have to keep doing it...

[Bellhorn04]

And I think if the Sox had any inclination Sale would actually be healthy, they either don't make this deal or trade Sale for a lot more and pay a lot less, if they pay anything at all...

 

Any inclination he'd be healthy? He was healthy at the end of 2023 and he's obviously very healthy now. Obviously no one knows if he'll stay that way for the next 5 months.

[moonslav59]

We've had 6 bullpen games and lost 4 of them.

 

What's interesting is that in 5 of those 6 starts we had Wink and Bernardino pitch 13.2 IP, combined with just 2 ERs allowed. I realize3 the taxing of the pen is the point, and is a good point.

 

Here is a breakdown of the wins and losses by SP'er and their ERAs. If ever there was an argument to be made about a pitcher's W-L record, or the team's W-L record in his starts, not being all that meaningful, this would be an example:

 

5-1 Criswell 2.67

5-2 Bello 3.96

3-2 Pivetta 3.04

5-5 Houck 1.94

2-4 Pen starters

3-7 Crawford 2.17

1-3 Whitlock 1.94

[Bellhorn04]

What's interesting is that in 5 of those 6 starts we had Wink and Bernardino pitch 13.2 IP, combined with just 2 ERs allowed. I realize3 the taxing of the pen is the point, and is a good point.

 

Here is a breakdown of the wins and losses by SP'er and their ERAs. If ever there was an argument to be made about a pitcher's W-L record, or the team's W-L record in his starts, not being all that meaningful, this would be an example:

 

5-1 Criswell 2.67

5-2 Bello 3.96

3-2 Pivetta 3.04

5-5 Houck 1.94

2-4 Pen starters

3-7 Crawford 2.17

1-3 Whitlock 1.94

 

Yes, our run production has been erratic to say the least.

[Hugh2]

LOL man ya'll are funny.

 

I'd rather have hitting right now than pitching. How are we doing with RISP again? what is a bigger problem on this team?

 

Sure, Grissom doesn't look like a good pick up at the moment in hindsight but a RH hitting bat was one of our biggest needs in the offseason.

 

We've lost almost 1/4 of all the games we've played by 3 runs or less. Maybe with Chris Sale we'd lose 0-3 instead of 0-7 that one time.

[Hugh2]

Sometimes I think some posters just love to hate whatever move the front office makes. Don't get me wrong, there are some real head scratchers in there, many worth the questions but for right or wrong I'll never judge something in hindsight, nor prematurely.

[Bellhorn04]

LOL man ya'll are funny.

 

I'd rather have hitting right now than pitching. How are we doing with RISP again? what is a bigger problem on this team?

 

Sure, Grissom doesn't look like a good pick up at the moment in hindsight but a RH hitting bat was one of our biggest needs in the offseason.

 

We've lost almost 1/4 of all the games we've played by 3 runs or less. Maybe with Chris Sale we'd lose 0-3 instead of 0-7 that one time.

 

Yeah, who needs a pitcher with a 1.9 fWAR on May 20. That'd just be a luxury.

[Hugh2]

Terrible, terrible argument, Hugh. I can't believe you made it.

 

We'd be a couple games better right now with Sale. We'd have 3 studs instead of 2.

 

We've had 6 bullpen games and lost 4 of them.

 

The fact our overall pitching has been excellent doesn't mean having a better pitcher wouldn't improve our record. It's just simple logic and math.

 

No it's doesn't, but improving in the area you're most deficient in is going to go further in making you better, that's pretty simple logic and math too.

[Hugh2]

Yeah, who needs a pitcher with a 1.9 fWAR on May 20. That'd just be a luxury.

 

That's not the argument I said, I'm saying right now improved defense and offense would make this team better than having another ACE. The former doesn't mean the latter also isn't true or I wouldn't like it.

[Bellhorn04]

There was a very mixed initial response to this trade, from what I observed. A lot of people liked it because Grissom seemed like a really good get and of course many wrote Sale off. But some questioned what the hell we were doing moving Sale when everyone agreed the team's biggest need was starting pitching. At the time, no one but no one expected Houck and Crawford to be as good as they have been so far.

[Bellhorn04]

That's not the argument I said, I'm saying right now improved defense and offense would make this team better than having another ACE. The former doesn't mean the latter also isn't true or I wouldn't like it.

 

You said: "The Sale trade hasn't hurt us."

 

Sale has about a 2 WAR and Grissom is in negative territory.

 

Plain and simple, yes, it has hurt us.

[Old Red]

You said: "The Sale trade hasn't hurt us."

 

Sale has about a 2 WAR and Grissom is in negative territory.

 

Plain and simple, yes, it has hurt us.

 

At the moment, which is most important, and where we are the Red Sox have pretty much traded Sale for nothing, and are paying Atlanta $17M to boot. Gus Grissom most likely isn’t this bad, and will come around to some extent. How good that is time will tell.

[Hugh2]

You said: "The Sale trade hasn't hurt us."

 

Sale has about a 2 WAR and Grissom is in negative territory.

 

Plain and simple, yes, it has hurt us.

 

Just because Sales WAR is 2 doesn't mean he definitively would of added 2 wins. If he started any of those bullpen games they easily could have been the 4 days the Sox scored 0-1 runs. We just don't know. Right now, offense and defense is a much bigger problem.

 

Conversely to your point if you had two options.

 

Option one. Pitch better offense/defense remain the same.

Option two. Pitch the same offense/defense better.

 

Which would you choose?

[Old Red]

Just because Sales WAR is 2 doesn't mean he definitively would of added 2 wins. If he started any of those bullpen games they easily could have been the 4 days the Sox scored 0-1 runs. We just don't know. Right now, offense and defense is a much bigger problem.

 

Conversely to your point if you had two options.

 

Option one. Pitch better offense/defense remain the same.

Option two. Pitch the same offense/defense better.

 

Which would you choose?

Bottom line Sale over Grissom who hasn’t added any offense, or defense anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

Just because Sales WAR is 2 doesn't mean he definitively would of added 2 wins. If he started any of those bullpen games they easily could have been the 4 days the Sox scored 0-1 runs. We just don't know.

 

So you're going with a randomness argument.

 

That's like going through all Devers's home runs and picking which ones contributed to actual wins and saying they're the only ones that were productive at-bats.

[Hugh2]

Bottom line Sale over Grissom who hasn’t added any offense, or defense anyway.

 

No one is arguing over that. I'm just not judging the trade at the moment, If Grissom came into the season healthy, had a normal spring training and had a .850+ ops right now and was playing a good second base as many predicted he could no one would be complaining.

 

Results matter, and if Grissom doesn't ever put it together I'll call it a horrible trade, but I certainly won't know and given how this season is going I would have placed my bets on the prospect of improving my defense and offense too.

[Hugh2]

So you're going with a randomness argument.

 

That's like going through all Devers's home runs and picking which ones contributed to actual wins and saying they're the only ones that were productive at-bats.

 

Actually no, what you're saying is like saying that. To come in here and say Chris Sale would have started every game that the Sox scored 5 or more runs is the same thing. I'm literally not saying that, I'm saying we don't know.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing about Grissom is, he's a PROSPECT.

 

Sure he has great-looking minor league numbers. So does Dalbec.

 

Grissom's 80 MLB PA's in 2023 were nothing special. 280/313/347

 

In neither 2023 or 2024 has he hit any home runs, and he has taken very few walks.

 

We got ourselves another prospect and no more.

[Hugh2]

The thing about Grissom is, he's a PROSPECT.

 

Sure he has great-looking minor league numbers. So does Dalbec.

 

Grissom's 80 MLB PA's in 2023 were nothing special. 280/313/347

 

In neither 2023 or 2024 has he hit any home runs, and he has taken very few walks.

 

We got ourselves another prospect and no more.

 

All correct.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually no, what you're saying is like saying that. To come in here and say Chris Sale would have started every game that the Sox scored 5 or more runs is the same thing. I'm literally not saying that, I'm saying we don't know.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the whole purpose of stats like WAR is to eliminate all the luck and randomness stuff you're trying to apply here.

 

"All else being equal", Sale's 2 WAR performance would obviously have made us a better team to this point. Whether it would have added exactly 2 wins we don't know. Might have been 3, might have been 1, because of the randomness of the game.

[Old Red]

No one is arguing over that. I'm just not judging the trade at the moment, If Grissom came into the season healthy, had a normal spring training and had a .850+ ops right now and was playing a good second base as many predicted he could no one would be complaining.

 

Results matter, and if Grissom doesn't ever put it together I'll call it a horrible trade, but I certainly won't know and given how this season is going I would have placed my bets on the prospect of improving my defense and offense too.

I’m not giving a final grade to the trade, but like I keep saying the here, and now is what’s most important at the moment, and at the moment Sale is great, and Gus has pretty much sucked. I didn’t expect any great D from him at 2B either. If he was hitting better it wouldn’t look as bad, but he’s not. Still plenty of games left in the season for things to change though, and something probably will. Grissom is not this bad.

[Hugh2]

I’m not giving a final grade to the trade, but like I keep saying the here, and now is what’s most important at the moment, and at the moment Sale is great, and Gus has pretty much sucked. I didn’t expect any great D from him at 2B either. If he was hitting better it wouldn’t look as bad, but he’s not. Still plenty of games left in the season for things to change though, and something probably will. Grissom is not this bad.

 

Red you're a voice of reason in here.

[notin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the whole purpose of stats like WAR is to eliminate all the luck and randomness stuff you're trying to apply here.

 

"All else being equal", Sale's 2 WAR performance would obviously have made us a better team to this point. Whether it would have added exactly 2 wins we don't know. Might have been 3, might have been 1, because of the randomness of the game.

 

Obviously this team would be better today with Sale instead of Grissom. But at the time this trade was made, everyone anticipated the Sox were a given to be in last place in the AL East and out of the postseason picture probably fairly early, and Sale's involvement was a huge question mark given the past 4 seasons. Could they have waited and dealt him at the deadline? Sure. But then you're gambling that he doesn't get hurt again, a gamble they have lost 4 seasons in a row...

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously this team would be better today with Sale instead of Grissom. But at the time this trade was made, everyone anticipated the Sox were a given to be in last place in the AL East and out of the postseason picture probably fairly early, and Sale's involvement was a huge question mark given the past 4 seasons.

 

You're saying that at the end of December, with a ton of unsigned free agents still out there, we had already all given up on 2024?

 

What you're saying is it was a punt move. I think that's exactly what worried me about it at the time, and why I really hate it now.

Edited May 21, 2024 by Bellhorn04