Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Eventually I don't think he will have a choice. Another last place finish this year is likely and its not like we have a plethora of SPs that are worth anything in the minors. I hope that the fans vote this year with their feet and force Henry's hand. We deserve better.

 

Your point works the opposite of your theory.

 

The weak value in the minors devalues the team. Anyone buying the team would need to invest in pitching if the goal was to be competitive. Otherwise Henry is trying to sell a house with the sales pitch “it should be fine once you get a new foundation.”

 

A Henry sale is a Fan Fantasy. And people are trying to make everything look like that’s the obvious plan. Force those pieces to fit!!

[FredLynn]

Your point works the opposite of your theory.

 

The weak value in the minors devalues the team. Anyone buying the team would need to invest in pitching if the goal was to be competitive. Otherwise Henry is trying to sell a house with the sales pitch “it should be fine once you get a new foundation.”

 

A Henry sale is a Fan Fantasy. And people are trying to make everything look like that’s the obvious plan. Force those pieces to fit!!

 

I disagree. If I am looking to buy a baseball team I don't want one with a sky high budget. I want in inexpensive one with a great fan base- a team that I believe I can mold into a winner with an appropriate investment in money and management talent.

[mvp 78]

Eventually I don't think he will have a choice. Another last place finish this year is likely and its not like we have a plethora of SPs that are worth anything in the minors. I hope that the fans vote this year with their feet and force Henry's hand. We deserve better.

 

Even if local fans stop showing up, a lot of visiting fans will come due to the balanced schedule. He has a a few more years to coast before the rubber will really meet the road.

[mvp 78]

Your point works the opposite of your theory.

 

The weak value in the minors devalues the team. Anyone buying the team would need to invest in pitching if the goal was to be competitive. Otherwise Henry is trying to sell a house with the sales pitch “it should be fine once you get a new foundation.”

 

A Henry sale is a Fan Fantasy. And people are trying to make everything look like that’s the obvious plan. Force those pieces to fit!!

 

I'm not sure the sale of a team is really contingent on the current prospect pipeline either. I think the historical value of the Red Sox and Fenway Park is far more important than anything going on in 2024.

[Duran Is The Man]

I doubt they are selling the team. They are using FSG as a complete sports portfolio and the Sox are one of the best investments in it, including Fenway park. If they sold now, they'd most likely be looking for another MLB team to buy at some point. Unless they were anticipating a drop in valuations, it doesn't make sense.

 

They are reducing the payroll because Henry believes the Sox SHOULD be better when they spend less money. He still pines for the days when he was courting Billy Beane and undervalued assets. Now, all teams are going for the same guys using virtually the same metrics. The Sox recently have set their valuations on guys, refuse to budge (ex: Bogey, Betts) and the market shows how far off they are. For Henry, it's more about a pissing contest than anything else. It's about him just being proven right because he's so much smarter than everyone else.

 

and it's working out just the opposite of that. he appears greedy and dumber than everyone else.

[dgalehouse]

It looks like the Sox' entire season hinges on signing 31 year old lefthander, Jordan Montgomery , a good pitcher who has been in MLB for 7 years now. " Monty" is coming off his best season, where he won 10 games. ( He lost 11) That is his career high in wins. Of course, I do now realize that wins are overrated, although I would expect that a team paying big bucks would be hoping that the guy did win a lot of games. I look for the Sox to take the plunge and sign " Monty" within a week.

[moonslav59]

$90mill over 4?

 

That’s an insulting offer! Just ask Bogaerts!

 

$98M/4 with buyout for year 5.

 

That may be the highest offer on the table, right not.

 

Personally, I'd go $100M/4 or $120M/5.

[moonslav59]

I doubt they are selling the team. They are using FSG as a complete sports portfolio and the Sox are one of the best investments in it, including Fenway park. If they sold now, they'd most likely be looking for another MLB team to buy at some point. Unless they were anticipating a drop in valuations, it doesn't make sense.

 

They are reducing the payroll because Henry believes the Sox SHOULD be better when they spend less money. He still pines for the days when he was courting Billy Beane and undervalued assets. Now, all teams are going for the same guys using virtually the same metrics. The Sox recently have set their valuations on guys, refuse to budge (ex: Bogey, Betts) and the market shows how far off they are. For Henry, it's more about a pissing contest than anything else. It's about him just being proven right because he's so much smarter than everyone else.

 

I do think there is some bravado with some owners to try and win without being the mega spenders.

[moonslav59]

It looks like the Sox' entire season hinges on signing 31 year old lefthander, Jordan Montgomery , a good pitcher who has been in MLB for 7 years now. " Monty" is coming off his best season, where he won 10 games. ( He lost 11) That is his career high in wins. Of course, I do now realize that wins are overrated, although I would expect that a team paying big bucks would be hoping that the guy did win a lot of games. I look for the Sox to take the plunge and sign " Monty" within a week.

 

Monty has been really good for 3 straight seasons:

 

'21 30 GS 3.83 ERA

'22 32 GS 3.48 ERA

'23 32 GS 3.20 ERA

 

2021-2023:

6th in GS (94) just 3 GS from #1.

17th in IP (524) just 3 IP from 15th

17th in fWAR at 10.2 - just 1.0 away from 10th.

20th in ERA- at 84 among SP'ers with 400+ IP- just 5 from top 15. (12th among SP'ers with 500+ IP/ 11th in just straight ERA at 3.48)

3.79 xFIP

1.18 WHIP

 

The guy has been a top 30 SP'er over a 3 year period.

 

He's not HOF, but he's not chump change, either.

[sk7326]

Monty has been really good for 3 straight seasons:

 

'21 30 GS 3.83 ERA

'22 32 GS 3.48 ERA

'23 32 GS 3.20 ERA

 

2021-2023:

6th in GS (94) just 3 GS from #1.

17th in IP (524) just 3 IP from 15th

17th in fWAR at 10.2 - just 1.0 away from 10th.

20th in ERA- at 84 among SP'ers with 400+ IP- just 5 from top 15. (12th among SP'ers with 500+ IP/ 11th in just straight ERA at 3.48)

3.79 xFIP

1.18 WHIP

 

The guy has been a top 30 SP'er over a 3 year period.

 

He's not HOF, but he's not chump change, either.

 

Montgomery is not a superstar ... but you add him and suddenly the rotation looks like it could be above average. It is a big floor raiser.

[cp176]

I'm not sure the sale of a team is really contingent on the current prospect pipeline either. I think the historical value of the Red Sox and Fenway Park is far more important than anything going on in 2024.

If John Henry put this team up for sale, which I doubt he does but you never know, it will make no difference what the pitching landscape looks like. His team would sell as quickly as property in Florida has been selling. Here today gone tomorrow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Montgomery is not a superstar ... but you add him and suddenly the rotation looks like it could be above average. It is a big floor raiser.

 

It changes everything -- more depth and rest in the bullpen, less stress on the coaching staff, more smiles in the clubhouse, less whining, more winning...

 

The thing is, if fans realize this, than so does the front office. So why hasn't it happened?

[moonslav59]

Montgomery is not a superstar ... but you add him and suddenly the rotation looks like it could be above average. It is a big floor raiser.

 

Agreed, and it also makes the ceiling a little higher and attainable.

 

AVG Rotation

Plus Pen

Near AVG Defense (16th-22nd?)

Plus Offense

[moonslav59]

It changes everything -- more depth and rest in the bullpen, less stress on the coaching staff, more smiles in the clubhouse, less whining, more winning...

 

The thing is, if fans realize this, than so does the front office. So why hasn't it happened?

 

It does also get me thinking, if many of us feel like adding Monty makes us playoff contenders, then are we really as bad without him, as we seem to think?

 

Adding 4-5 wins should not turn us from awful to playoff bound.

[notin]

It changes everything -- more depth and rest in the bullpen, less stress on the coaching staff, more smiles in the clubhouse, less whining, more winning...

 

The thing is, if fans realize this, than so does the front office. So why hasn't it happened?

 

What is Montgomery/Boras asking for?

[Hugh2]

What is Montgomery/Boras asking for?

 

At this point you think he would have taken the biggest deal out there.....two weeks ago. Maybe Boras thinks a team who sustains an injury blinks in spring training, kind of weird to be taking that approach with two guys simultaneously.

 

Boras is really good at what he does, but this feels like a rarity and he's completely f***ed things up for Snell and Montgomery. Sox might actually be doing something really smart here by waiting to pounce on him (if one could actually believe they would sign anyone at this point).

[Bellhorn04]

What is Montgomery/Boras asking for?

 

No one has a clue.

 

I'm just not sure what's stopping the Red Sox from making an offer, like the Yanks reportedly did with Snell.

[Bellhorn04]

At this point you think he would have taken the biggest deal out there.....two weeks ago. Maybe Boras thinks a team who sustains an injury blinks in spring training, kind of weird to be taking that approach with two guys simultaneously.

 

Boras is really good at what he does, but this feels like a rarity and he's completely f***ed things up for Snell and Montgomery. Sox might actually be doing something really smart here by waiting to pounce on him (if one could actually believe they would sign anyone at this point).

 

The Sox could end up looking very smart here. They could still end up looking incredibly stupid and cheap, too.

[notin]

No one has a clue.

 

I'm just not sure what's stopping the Red Sox from making an offer, like the Yanks reportedly did with Snell.

 

I never pretend to know what goes on behind the scenes. The Sox might have made one, in which case it was clearly insufficient. Or maybe they never made an offer because the preliminary numbers they’re throwing around keep getting dismissed. And speaking that, when is it an official offer?

[Bellhorn04]

I never pretend to know what goes on behind the scenes. The Sox might have made one, in which case it was clearly insufficient. Or maybe they never made an offer because the preliminary numbers they’re throwing around keep getting dismissed. And speaking that, when is it an official offer?

 

An official offer is an official signed-off legal document much like an offer to buy a house, right? It's binding, and if the other side signs too, it's a deal, pending the inspection etc.

Edited February 27, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[Randy Red Sox]

It looks like the Sox' entire season hinges on signing 31 year old lefthander, Jordan Montgomery , a good pitcher who has been in MLB for 7 years now. " Monty" is coming off his best season, where he won 10 games. ( He lost 11) That is his career high in wins. Of course, I do now realize that wins are overrated, although I would expect that a team paying big bucks would be hoping that the guy did win a lot of games. I look for the Sox to take the plunge and sign " Monty" within a week.

 

I think the Sox will sign him too but as you point out a 10-11 SP is hardly an ace. It will help some but it is still likely they finish at best 4th in the AL East

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox will sign him too but as you point out a 10-11 SP is hardly an ace. It will help some but it is still likely they finish at best 4th in the AL East

 

OK, you and Denny are the co-chairs of the "W-L record still really matters" committee here.

 

Aaron Nola is 32-31 over the last 3 seasons. DD must have been clean out of his mind paying him 172 million!

[Bellhorn04]

If an Old Schooler still likes to cite ERA, I get that. But I don't get still thinking W-L record is a big deal. If W-L record really matters to you, you must think it's absolutely insane how much more money Nola got than Wacha did.

[notin]

The Sox could end up looking very smart here. They could still end up looking incredibly stupid and cheap, too.

 

This one almost feels like straight PR at this point. Montgomery isn’t a franchise-altering pitcher; he’s a good pitcher who has the good fortune to reach free agency in a season where he was a Top Three option at his position.

 

If they pass, hopefully it’s because they don’t think Montgomery is the guy and not because they have some blanket policy about paying nine figure deals to free agent starting pitchers…

[Bellhorn04]

This one almost feels like straight PR at this point. Montgomery isn’t a franchise-altering pitcher; he’s a good pitcher who has the good fortune to reach free agency in a season where he was a Top Three option at his position.

 

If they pass, hopefully it’s because they don’t think Montgomery is the guy and not because they have some blanket policy about paying nine figure deals to free agent starting pitchers…

 

I really and truly believe you can do things that are good for both baseball and PR. For example, the Sox extending Mookie Betts would have been wicked good PR...

[notin]

If an Old Schooler still likes to cite ERA, I get that. But I don't get still thinking W-L record is a big deal. If W-L record really matters to you, you must think it's absolutely insane how much more money Nola got than Wacha did.

 

If you think wins are a good pitching stat, know that Jamie Moyer has more of them than some 40 Hall of Fame starting pitchers. He has 50 more than Pedro…

[notin]

I really and truly believe you can do things that are good for both baseball and PR. For example, the Sox extending Mookie Betts would have been wicked good PR...

 

Extending Betts should have been done early. Free agency is largely about PR. Betts should have never reached free agency. (And he never did.)

 

Montgomery does move the needle as an improvement. I could also see passing on him because there are numerous other pitchers who can move it more. Or are candidates to move it more…

[Bellhorn04]

If you think wins are a good pitching stat, know that Jamie Moyer has more of them than some 40 Hall of Fame starting pitchers. He has 50 more than Pedro…

 

It's not just the wins, it's the W-L spread and % that Old Schoolers still love.

 

I mean, Mike Wacha's 25-6 record over the last 2 years is a fun number, but it doesn't mean he's the guy you want instead of Nola or Montgomery...

[Bellhorn04]

Extending Betts should have been done early. Free agency is largely about PR. Betts should have never reached free agency. (And he never did.)

 

Montgomery does move the needle as an improvement. I could also see passing on him because there are numerous other pitchers who can move it more. Or are candidates to move it more…

 

Those numerous others don't seem to be readily available to the 2024 team.

[Old Red]

If an Old Schooler still likes to cite ERA, I get that. But I don't get still thinking W-L record is a big deal. If W-L record really matters to you, you must think it's absolutely insane how much more money Nola got than Wacha did.

 

I’m an Old Schooler, and yes W-L record is the first thing I look at, and then ERA. Then I go down to hits, walks, and K’s per innings pitched. That’s all I need, and it’s good enough for ME. It stills amusing to me when bells, and whistles goes off on here when Old School stats are mentioned.🙈🤭