Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

It's not just the wins, it's the W-L spread and % that Old Schoolers still love.

 

I mean, Mike Wacha's 25-6 record over the last 2 years is a fun number, but it doesn't mean he's the guy you want instead of Nola or Montgomery...

 

I LOVE it when a plan comes together.

[Bellhorn04]

I LOVE it when a plan comes together.

 

But you guys have no answer for things like the Nola-Wacha comparison. You just try to sweep it under the carpet or something.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the Sox will sign him too but as you point out a 10-11 SP is hardly an ace. It will help some but it is still likely they finish at best 4th in the AL East

 

Breslow keeps reminding us it's not all about 2024 -- but I keep reminding him that's a good reason to sign Montgomery.

 

Starting pitching isn't going to get cheaper next winter or the one after that.

 

If the Red Sox are truly determined to change their culture of pitching, they know they need to use ALL their resources, and not just rely on the magical mystical Bailey.

 

They could employ the greatest pitching coaches in history, force Leo Mazzone and Dave Duncan out of retirement, and use a Squeegie board to consult the ghost of Johnny Sain (and pray for clarity)... but they'll still need to PAY for good starting pitchers with funds and trade capital.

[notin]

It's not just the wins, it's the W-L spread and % that Old Schoolers still love.

 

I mean, Mike Wacha's 25-6 record over the last 2 years is a fun number, but it doesn't mean he's the guy you want instead of Nola or Montgomery...

 

Which W-L record is for a pitcher NOT in Cooperstown?

 

A. 288-237 (.544)

B. 269-209 (.563)

C. 254-186 (.577)

D. 273-225 (.548)

E. 249-205 (.548)

F. 254-213 (.544)

[Bellhorn04]

Which W-L record is for a pitcher NOT in Cooperstown?

 

A. 288-237 (.544)

B. 269-209 (.563)

C. 254-186 (.577)

D. 273-225 (.548)

E. 249-205 (.548)

F. 254-213 (.544)

 

Pettitte?

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox will sign him too but as you point out a 10-11 SP is hardly an ace. It will help some but it is still likely they finish at best 4th in the AL East

 

Depends what you call an ace.

 

To me, he's a top 30 SP'er in MLB, and so should be called a number 1 SP'er (1 per 30 teams.)

 

The word "ace" has many different interpretations. If we signed him, he'd ne our #1, or "ace" as some might call a team's best pitcher.

[moonslav59]

The Sox could end up looking very smart here. They could still end up looking incredibly stupid and cheap, too.

 

The Sox are not know for upping their offers, very often, but in this case, I hope they are prepared to do it, at least a little bit.

[Bellhorn04]

"Ace" is the most hopelessly abused term is sports.

[Old Red]

But you guys have no answer for things like the Nola-Wacha comparison. You just try to sweep it under the carpet or something.

 

Is Nola, and Monty a better pitcher than Wacha? Yes. Do you get better results from Monty, and Nola and pay a lot bigger price? Yes, and no.More innings from Nola, and Monty yes. What is getting swept under the carpet.?

[notin]

Pettitte?

 

You can just pick the letter. Pettitte is not among those 6 pitchers…

[Bellhorn04]

You can just pick the letter. Pettitte is not among those 6 pitchers…

 

C then!

[notin]

"Ace" is the most hopelessly abused term is sports.

 

I’ve been saying that for years. My parents told me when I was a little baby, my first sentence was “no one knows what an ace is.”

 

They agreed by blowing in my belly button, which was acceptable to me at that time in my life…

[notin]

C then!

 

C is Hall of Famer Jack Morris. Best record percentage wise in the list, but no easy path to Cooperstown when pen hit ballot…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Which W-L record is for a pitcher NOT in Cooperstown?

 

A. 288-237 (.544)

B. 269-209 (.563)

C. 254-186 (.577)

D. 273-225 (.548)

E. 249-205 (.548)

F. 254-213 (.544)

 

How many games were won by underwear mogul Tommy John?

[notin]

How many games were won by underwear mogul Tommy John?

 

288 wins 231 losses (.555)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

288 wins 231 losses (.555)

 

Just looked up Tommy John -- not in the Hall, unlike 9 of his 10 comps on bb-ref's list of Similar Pitchers.

 

That should be on his side, and the fact his name may be more common than Babe Ruth's in modern daily baseball-speak...

 

Plus, the 1 of 10 comps not in Cooperstown is Tony Mullane -- probably because he was from Ireland with an Italian name; too much punching himself in the head.

[notin]

Which W-L record is for a pitcher NOT in Cooperstown?

 

A. 288-237 (.544)

B. 269-209 (.563)

C. 254-186 (.577)

D. 273-225 (.548)

E. 249-205 (.548)

F. 254-213 (.544)

 

 

As there are not many guesses.

 

A. Hall of Famer Jim Kaat

B. Jamie Moyer

C. Hall of Famer Jack Morris

D. Hall of Famer Red Ruffing

E. Hall of Famer Vic Wilis

F. Hall of Famer Red Faber.

 

Moyer again, but pitchers like Pettitte, Tommy John, or Curt Schilling have a groundswell of support for being egregious omissions from Cooperstown. No one has ever even tried to make a case for Moyer in Cooperstown, despite his being 35th all time in wins…

[moonslav59]

Last 60 Years leaders:

 

Wins:

355-227 Maddox

354-184 Clemens

329-244 Carlton

324-292 Ryan

324-256 Sutton

318-274 P Neikro

311-205 Seaver

310-258 G Perry

303-166 R Johnson

 

Does the top 10 win leaders look better ordered than the top 10 fWAR lest?

 

fWAR

134 Clemens

117 Maddux

111 Johnson

107 Ryan

103 Blyleven

100 Perry

97 Carlton

92 Seaver

86 Sutton

84 Pedro

 

Longevity plays a role in the top win & fWAR leaders: ERA- does not

 

2000+ IP since 1964:

63 Kershaw

67 Pedro

70 Clemens

75 Johnson

76 Scherzer, Maddux, Gibson, Halladay, Verlander

78 Palmer, Brown, Oswalt

79 Seaver, Schilling

 

I think the ERA- list shows the best pitchers, but longevity has value, too.

 

[dgalehouse]

If John Henry put this team up for sale, which I doubt he does but you never know, it will make no difference what the pitching landscape looks like. His team would sell as quickly as property in Florida has been selling. Here today gone tomorrow.

 

I seriously doubt that the minor league pitching is much, if any, of a factor in the selling price of an MLB franchise , especially one as highly valued as the Red Sox.

[dgalehouse]

In baseball , one can always find examples to counter any argument. Pitching stats are no exception. But the whole object of the game is to win. Everyone knows that. Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher. His ERA shows that. However, the fact is that he won 10 games last year. And that is his career best. Just a couple of examples : Pedro exceeded that 11 times. Schilling exceeded that 10 times. Even Aaron Nola exceeded that five times. I could go on and on. Do you think the Red Sox would pay big money to a pitcher and be happy if he went 10-11 ? To me, saying that wins and losses are overrated makes no sense since the whole idea is to win. Should the Sox sign Montgomery to a lucrative free agent contract, I sincerely hope he wins more than ten games. And I would hope that Breslow feels that way as well.

[moonslav59]

In baseball , one can always find examples to counter any argument. Pitching stats are no exception. But the whole object of the game is to win. Everyone knows that. Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher. His ERA shows that. However, the fact is that he won 10 games last year. And that is his career best. Just a couple of examples : Pedro exceeded that 11 times. Schilling exceeded that 10 times. Even Aaron Nola exceeded that five times. I could go on and on. Do you think the Red Sox would pay big money to a pitcher and be happy if he went 10-11 ? To me, saying that wins and losses are overrated makes no sense since the whole idea is to win. Should the Sox sign Montgomery to a lucrative free agent contract, I sincerely hope he wins more than ten games. And I would hope that Breslow feels that way as well.

 

14 wins, if you count the 3 playoff wins.

 

The team won 17 of his starts in '21 and '22.

[Old Red]

In baseball , one can always find examples to counter any argument. Pitching stats are no exception. But the whole object of the game is to win. Everyone knows that. Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher. His ERA shows that. However, the fact is that he won 10 games last year. And that is his career best. Just a couple of examples : Pedro exceeded that 11 times. Schilling exceeded that 10 times. Even Aaron Nola exceeded that five times. I could go on and on. Do you think the Red Sox would pay big money to a pitcher and be happy if he went 10-11 ? To me, saying that wins and losses are overrated makes no sense since the whole idea is to win. Should the Sox sign Montgomery to a lucrative free agent contract, I sincerely hope he wins more than ten games. And I would hope that Breslow feels that way as well.

 

👍👍👍🤫

[notin]

In baseball , one can always find examples to counter any argument. Pitching stats are no exception. But the whole object of the game is to win. Everyone knows that. Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher. His ERA shows that. However, the fact is that he won 10 games last year. And that is his career best. Just a couple of examples : Pedro exceeded that 11 times. Schilling exceeded that 10 times. Even Aaron Nola exceeded that five times. I could go on and on. Do you think the Red Sox would pay big money to a pitcher and be happy if he went 10-11 ? To me, saying that wins and losses are overrated makes no sense since the whole idea is to win. Should the Sox sign Montgomery to a lucrative free agent contract, I sincerely hope he wins more than ten games. And I would hope that Breslow feels that way as well.

 

Let's look at John Lackey

 

2010: 14-11 4.40 ERA

2011: 12-12 6.41 ERA

2012: Injured

2013: 10-13 3.52 ERA

2014: 11-7 3.60 ERA (Boston only)

 

The year Lackey was so important to that World Series championship was also the year he won the fewest games for Boston...

Edited February 27, 2024 by notin

[Old Red]

14 wins, if you count the 3 playoff wins.

 

The team won 17 of his starts in '21 and '22.

 

No you don’t count reg season with postseason. is the team winning 17 out of 62 of his starts that good?

[moonslav59]

In 2021, ERod went 13-8. Not bad, but not something that the "win decisión" posse would rave about.

 

The team went 19-12 in his starts, and he was a big reason the team did well in '21. (Not replacing him in the next 2 years was a key to the drop off.)

 

Amazingly, the team went 26-8 in his starts in 2019, the year we dropped off a cliff. (He went 19-6 in decisions.)

 

They went 19-4 in his 2018 starts, while his W-L record was just 13-5.

 

I think those who prefer wins above all else, should use team wins in starts, but that's not "traditional," so it won't fly.

 

If it's all about winning, team wins in starts should trump W-L records based on weird criteria. ERod can pitch shut out ball ball, but come one out short of the criteria, and they can give the win to a guy who goes .1 IP.

[Bellhorn04]

In baseball , one can always find examples to counter any argument. Pitching stats are no exception. But the whole object of the game is to win. Everyone knows that. Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher. His ERA shows that. However, the fact is that he won 10 games last year. And that is his career best. Just a couple of examples : Pedro exceeded that 11 times. Schilling exceeded that 10 times. Even Aaron Nola exceeded that five times. I could go on and on. Do you think the Red Sox would pay big money to a pitcher and be happy if he went 10-11 ? To me, saying that wins and losses are overrated makes no sense since the whole idea is to win. Should the Sox sign Montgomery to a lucrative free agent contract, I sincerely hope he wins more than ten games. And I would hope that Breslow feels that way as well.

 

One more time - Aaron Nola was 32-31 in his last 3 seasons. That's an average record of 10.7-10.3.

 

Dombrowski gave him a contract for 7 years and 172 million.

 

And as far as I know, you think Dombrowski is a good CBO.

 

You really have no counterargument to this. Because there isn't one.

[notin]

No you don’t count reg season with postseason. is the team winning 17 out of 62 of his starts that good?

 

17 in each 2021 and 2022. Montgomery himself was credited with 15 wins in that timeframe. His teams went 34-28 in his starts...

[moonslav59]

17 in each 2021 and 2022. Montgomery himself was credited with 15 wins in that timeframe. His teams went 34-28 in his starts...

 

I thought it was about wins. Now, losses count as much?

 

I'm confused.

 

Wins or winning %?

 

Why don't playoff wins count for even more, rather than not all all?

 

[notin]

I thought it was about wins. Now, losses count as much?

 

I'm confused.

 

Wins or winning %?

 

Why don't playoff wins count for even more, rather than not all all?

 

 

The argument is about the importance of W-L record. Bellhorn calls it the spread. Or you can look at winning pct. Either way, it is a weak assessment of pitcher ability...

[moonslav59]

17 in each 2021 and 2022. Montgomery himself was credited with 15 wins in that timeframe. His teams went 34-28 in his starts...

 

Yes, 17-13 and 17-15= 34-28

 

That is a .548 win%.

 

.548 x 162 games = 89 wins out of 162.

 

Is it about winning, or not?