Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt he takes less money for Boston. Why would he take less money over, say, seven years if her residency is much shorter? (I have no idea how long it is.)

 

But does she have an opt in? Or can the Red Sox issue her a blue-and-yellow card so she can stay city connected when she's a non-resident? Look for these questions and moron 5G talksox posts... while we anxiously await the next signing of another Triple A back-up catcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dermatology is 4 and most do a fellowship that can add a year or two.

[notin]

Dermatology is 4 and most do a fellowship that can add a year or two.

 

I still don’t think she will really be a factor, but she will be in town…

[Bellhorn04]

I thought she was on her way to Vanderbilt soon, but I'm a little shaky on my WAG fact sheets.

[notin]

No! 1 yr/$30M after he opts out after that first year.

 

Given his hard hit rate, barrel rate and exit velocity last year, along with his recent history at the plate, and I’d say there is a definitely a very good chance this is a 3 year deal…

[notin]

I thought she was on her way to Vanderbilt soon, but I'm a little shaky on my WAG fact sheets.

 

I’m starting to get into the camp that Clevinger might be the smarter pickup regardless. Of course, talent levels between the two can be debated. But durability between the two is a lot more clear cut…

[Bellhorn04]

I’m starting to get into the camp that Clevinger might be the smarter pickup regardless. Of course, talent levels between the two can be debated. But durability between the two is a lot more clear cut…

 

The PR factor is certainly very clear cut...

[notin]

The PR factor is certainly very clear cut...

 

Free agency is more about PR than it is about baseball. The only thing in Clevinger’s favor from a PR standpoint is that his scandal wasn’t as widely publicized as a few others…

[Bellhorn04]

Free agency is more about PR than it is about baseball. The only thing in Clevinger’s favor from a PR standpoint is that his scandal wasn’t as widely publicized as a few others…

 

It would be publicized plenty by the Boston media.

[notin]

It would be publicized plenty by the Boston media.

 

Depends how much there is to the story. Right now, it’s a lot of “he said, she said.”

 

Of course there is some irony. Clevinger’s alleged use actions in his scandals are actually worse than Bauer’s appear to be in his. Yet which player is likely to garner more negative press if signed?

[Bellhorn04]

Depends how much there is to the story. Right now, it’s a lot of “he said, she said.”

 

Of course there is some irony. Clevinger’s alleged use actions in his scandals are actually worse than Bauer’s appear to be in his. Yet which player is likely to garner more negative press if signed?

 

Bauer has multiple incidents on his resume, on and off the field - none of them illegal, but in sum he just seems like a guy who's way more trouble than he's worth. And his skills may not be there any more either.

 

But the Red Sox can't sign any of these guys.

[notin]

Bauer has multiple incidents on his resume, on and off the field - none of them illegal, but in sum he just seems like a guy who's way more trouble than he's worth. And his skills may not be there any more either.

 

But the Red Sox can't sign any of these guys.

 

Clevinger has multiple incidents, too. His girlfriend/mother of his children has accused him of not only throwing a cup of tobacco spit on his baby, but also of attempting yo strangle her and throwing an iPad at her when she was pregnant.

 

Bauer so far might only be guilty of being a victim in a blackmail plot and of being an immature ******* (which he has the right as an American to be)…

[Hugh2]

Prior to 2023, Bellinger had a .648 OPS (76 OPS+) over the previous three seasons. I wouldn’t guarantee his opting out just yet…

 

I don’t think his .648 over those three seasons is going to stop someone from giving him more than $50 if he has a decent year next year.

[Old Red]

Prior to 2023, Bellinger had a .648 OPS (76 OPS+) over the previous three seasons. I wouldn’t guarantee his opting out just yet…

 

Bellinger wasn’t resigned by the Cubs for what he did prior to 2023, and the previous 3 years, but what he pretty much did in 2023. The ONLY question is can he put 2 good seasons together in a row.

[notin]

I don’t think his .648 over those three seasons is going to stop someone from giving him more than $50 if he has a decent year next year.

 

But they do mean that the qualifier “if he has a good year next year” is far from a certainty. Especially since several metrics indicate he might have been a little lucky this year…

[notin]

Bellinger wasn’t resigned by the Cubs for what he did prior to 2023, and the previous 3 years, but what he pretty much did in 2023. The ONLY question is can he put 2 good seasons together in a row.

 

Exactly. And right now the answer to that question is far from a definitive “yes”…

[Hugh2]

But they do mean that the qualifier “if he has a good year next year” is far from a certainty. Especially since several metrics indicate he might have been a little lucky this year…

 

Oh without a doubt he was a little lucky, but he was also definitively better than he was the previous years. He will still be 29 next year, he just has to have a decent year to have someone throw more than $50 million at him.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR predicted Bellinger would get $264 million. I'm guessing the delta of $184 million is a record.

 

So, all the hype about Ohtani and Yamo's mega deals driving up the price for those to follow was just that: hype.

[notin]

Oh without a doubt he was a little lucky, but he was also definitively better than he was the previous years. He will still be 29 next year, he just has to have a decent year to have someone throw more than $50 million at him.

 

Yes, he has to have a good year. His age works for him, until you remember he didn’t reach free agency the first time through normal channels; he was NON-TENDERED by the Dodgers, and for good reason. And if he has another year of sub-.700 OPS, that will make it three times in a 4 year stretch. At that point, 2023 looks like an outlier. In that case, he doesn’t opt out. Especially when you notice his good season in 2023 was built on being bottom 25% in exit velocity and barrel percentage, and bottom 10% in hard hit percentage. Bellinger was behind Connor Wong in all these categories. He’s far from mashing, and most seasons it does cost him. 2023 was the one season it didn’t.

 

There is a reason he’s not even coming close to getting what he wants and settled for another pillow contract…

Edited February 25, 2024 by notin

[notin]

So, all the hype about Ohtani and Yamo's mega deals driving up the price for those to follow was just that: hype.

 

Not really fair.

 

Ohtani is one of the best all-around players on the planet. Yamamoto is an unknown by MLB standards.

 

But Bellinger just isn’t very good…

[sk7326]

So, all the hype about Ohtani and Yamo's mega deals driving up the price for those to follow was just that: hype.

 

Yes. Both of the players were unique prospects.

 

Shohei speaks for himself. Yamamoto is a 25 year old FA with #1 starter upside - those just don't get to market on the regular.

[Hugh2]

Yes, he has to have a good year. His age works for him, until you remember he didn’t reach free agency the first time through normal channels; he was NON-TENDERED by the Dodgers, and for good reason. And if he has another year of sub-.700 OPS, that will make it three times in a 4 year stretch. At that point, 2023 looks like an outlier. In that case, he doesn’t opt out. Especially when you notice his good season in 2023 was built on being bottom 25% in exit velocity and barrel percentage, and bottom 10% in hard hit percentage. Bellinger was behind Connor Wong in all these categories. He’s far from mashing, and most seasons it does cost him. 2023 was the one season it didn’t.

 

There is a reason he’s not even coming close to getting what he wants and settled for another pillow contract…

 

I agree he’s not getting nowhere near the money Boras wanted him too and an another MVP season his highly unlikely. He just needs to be good enough to have someone offer him more than $50. I’ll put the odds at 50/50

[moonslav59]

Not really fair.

 

Ohtani is one of the best all-around players on the planet. Yamamoto is an unknown by MLB standards.

 

But Bellinger just isn’t very good…

 

I'm just saying a couple posters projected a sharp increase in signing costs for the remaining FAs, after these two, and it did not really happen.

 

Most got close to projections, some got less, and some, like Bellinger, got way less.

[moonslav59]

I agree he’s not getting nowhere near the money Boras wanted him too and an another MVP season his highly unlikely. He just needs to be good enough to have someone offer him more than $50. I’ll put the odds at 50/50

 

2 good years in a row should help him get a better offer, but this guy's history is still scary.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bellinger was behind Connor Wong in all these categories. He’s far from mashing, and most seasons it does cost him. 2023 was the one season it didn’t.

 

There is a reason he’s not even coming close to getting what he wants and settled for another pillow contract…

 

While not quite the star that Snell is -- two Cys, and a starting pitcher -- Bellinger (still only 28, with a 8 WAR MVP year) is kinda the everyday version of inconsistency among Boras' binders.

 

But as far as free agent pitching, and the Red Sox waiting until they're good again before they spend again (it kills me to type that, but that. is. the assumed plan... at least here) -- does anyone really think that a year from now, the cost of starting pitching will GO DOWN?!?

[moonslav59]

While not quite the star that Snell is -- two Cys, and a starting pitcher -- Bellinger (still only 28, with a 8 WAR MVP year) is kinda the everyday version of inconsistency among Boras' binders.

 

But as far as free agent pitching, and the Red Sox waiting until they're good again before they spend again (it kills me to type that, but that. is. the assumed plan... at least here) -- does anyone really think that a year from now, the cost of starting pitching will GO DOWN?!?

 

It might get better.

 

I think Monty's age is what is making ]him look like not being part of the 2025 or 2026 "opening of the window."

 

The age was one reason I was high on Yamo.

 

Lauer 28 & 10 mos (not a significant upgrade)

Monty 31 & 2 mos (best choice, to me.)

Snell 31 & 3 mos (too injury prone, to me)

Bauer 33 & 1 mo. (Major PR issues)

Clevinger 33 & 2 mos (might take a short deal & PR issue)

 

I think we wait until 2025 or 2026 to spend big on a SP'er, but it may never happen.

[notin]

It might get better.

 

I think Monty's age is what is making ]him look like not being part of the 2025 or 2026 "opening of the window."

 

The age was one reason I was high on Yamo.

 

Lauer 28 & 10 mos (not a significant upgrade)

Monty 31 & 2 mos (best choice, to me.)

Snell 31 & 3 mos (too injury prone, to me)

Bauer 33 & 1 mo. (Major PR issues)

Clevinger 33 & 2 mos (might take a short deal & PR issue)

 

I think we wait until 2025 or 2026 to spend big on a SP'er, but it may never happen.

 

 

But Bauer does provide an example of the Price of pitching going down; he has said he will play for one year for his the league minimum.

[jad]

So, all the hype about Ohtani and Yamo's mega deals driving up the price for those to follow was just that: hype.

 

Totally agree. Wonder who was behind the hype? (Agents wanting more? Or owners wringing their hands about how unfairly they are treated and how impoverished they are? -- I suspect the latter.) (then again, maybe it was just bored fans making sh*t up!)

[Bellhorn04]

Free agency is more about PR than it is about baseball.

 

Just for fun sometime we should have a look at what the Red Sox rosters this century would have looked like if you removed all the free agents...

[notin]

Just for fun sometime we should have a look at what the Red Sox rosters this century would have looked like if you removed all the free agents...

 

And instead just extended all the younger players?