A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Unless Bello turns out the Red Sox have Nothing close to Smoltz, Glavine, or Maddox in the organization.

 

I already named that tune in one word (rhymes with long hills or walls built to protect against floods).

[Old Red]

No they do not, but they do have a few guys you can dream on. Might be nice for a change to see a few arms come up to follow Bello, because it seems that all the farm has provided in recent years with pitching has been nightmares.

 

To me I here all kinds of talk on here that the Red Sox have all kinds of arms in the organization like Kut Man, and Wink, Mata, Murphy, Walter but to me these guys are not much more than some arms to fill out the organization. Seabold was even touted on here too for a while. Mata can through 100, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a good productive pitcher. I think the picture for starters from within look pretty bleak, but then again what else is new.

[Bellhorn04]

To me I here all kinds of talk on here that the Red Sox have all kinds of arms in the organization like Kut Man, and Wink, Mata, Murphy, Walter but to me these guys are not much more than some arms to fill out the organization. Seabold was even touted on here too for a while. Mata can through 100, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a good productive pitcher. I think the picture for starters from within look pretty bleak, but then again what else is new.

 

The reason Keith Law ranked the Sox farm so low is the lack of pitching. So there's that.

[Nick]

Bello and Whitlock......it's a start.

[mvp 78]

And wouldn't you know it, in the 3 games Vaz has caught for the Twins they've allowed 1 run.

 

Is he pitching too?

[mvp 78]

The reason Keith Law ranked the Sox farm so low is the lack of pitching. So there's that.

 

Is it the pitching or the catchers, sir?

[moonslav59]

To me I here all kinds of talk on here that the Red Sox have all kinds of arms in the organization like Kut Man, and Wink, Mata, Murphy, Walter but to me these guys are not much more than some arms to fill out the organization. Seabold was even touted on here too for a while. Mata can through 100, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a good productive pitcher. I think the picture for starters from within look pretty bleak, but then again what else is new.

 

Yes, it's been bleak for a long, long time.

 

The Rule 5 pick of Whitlock might be the only SP'er bright spot since Lester and Buch, assuming Houck ends up in the pen.

 

It's hard to sustain winning without some homegrown pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it the pitching or the catchers, sir?

 

I don't have answers, only numbers.

[moonslav59]

Bello and Whitlock......it's a start.

 

I do think our young pitchers and pitching prospects are now better than they have been in a long time, but better than crappy need not be all that good.

 

Whitlock

Bello

Houck

Mata

Walter

Murphy

Wikelman

Drohan

Fernandez

 

(under 21)

Perales

E R-C

Paez

Guerrero

 

We need to get better and better, here, for sure, but to me, we have been heading in the right direction. Drafting a few pitchers in the first 2 rounds may help.

[moonslav59]

I don't have answers, only numbers.

 

It's mostly the pitcher, but the catcher can help or hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

It's mostly the pitcher, but the catcher can help or hurt.

 

When pitchers are flailing the way ours are, you can't help looking anywhere and everywhere for reasons.

[Hugh2]

To me I here all kinds of talk on here that the Red Sox have all kinds of arms in the organization like Kut Man, and Wink, Mata, Murphy, Walter but to me these guys are not much more than some arms to fill out the organization. Seabold was even touted on here too for a while. Mata can through 100, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a good productive pitcher. I think the picture for starters from within look pretty bleak, but then again what else is new.

 

Prospects will break your heart. Top prospects fail, and sometimes they become stars. I get the frustration, I wasn’t overly impressed with the depth of starting pitching in the system either last year after Bello. The rest of those guys strike me as swing men, BOTRS, and relievers.

 

Would love to see Perales take a step forward this year. The latest Soxprospects episode said If he wasn’t so far away from the majors he’s easily be the #1 pitching prospect in the system.

 

That’s nice, but the Sox need a win on the pitching prospect development front, and some serious changes need to be made in how they get and or develop pitching talent. Prospects won’t help us in 2023z

[moonslav59]

When pitchers are flailing the way ours are, you can't help looking anywhere and everywhere for reasons.

 

As well we should.

 

This as bad a 4 game stretch of starting pitching I've seen in a long time.

 

12.91 ERA

.371/.450/.843/1.293 Against

 

The Pen:

3.48 ERA

.273/.356/.377/.733 Against

 

Other than Kelly, Ort and Brasier, our pen has been very good. Maybe when Whitlock, Bello and or paxton join the rotation, Houck and Wink will squeeze out a couple of those bad apples.

 

OPSA

.417 Wink

.606 Martin

.650 Jansen

.708 Schreiber

.778 Bleier

[moonslav59]

Prospects will break your heart. Top prospects fail, and sometimes they become stars. I get the frustration, I wasn’t overly impressed with the depth of starting pitching in the system either last year after Bello. The rest of those guys strike me as swing men, BOTRS, and relievers.

 

Would love to see Perales take a step forward this year. The latest Soxprospects episode said If he wasn’t so far away from the majors he’s easily be the #1 pitching prospect in the system.

 

That’s nice, but the Sox need a win on the pitching prospect development front, and some serious changes need to be made in how they get and or develop pitching talent. Prospects won’t help us in 2023z

 

We also haven't made any trades for pitchers like Pedro, Schilling, Beckett or Sale since 2016.

 

Our philosophy seemed to be to acknowledge we lacked the ability to add and develop young pitcher, but we did much better with everyday players and could trade them for aces, like HRam for Beckett and Moncada for Sale.

 

There have been some fine young pitchers traded, recently. It doesn't seem like we are ever even mentioned as possible trade partners.

[mvp 78]

Unless Bello turns out the Red Sox have Nothing close to Smoltz, Glavine, or Maddox in the organization.

 

Do they even have a Steve Avery?

[mvp 78]

To me I here all kinds of talk on here that the Red Sox have all kinds of arms in the organization like Kut Man, and Wink, Mata, Murphy, Walter but to me these guys are not much more than some arms to fill out the organization. Seabold was even touted on here too for a while. Mata can through 100, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a good productive pitcher. I think the picture for starters from within look pretty bleak, but then again what else is new.

 

Yes, they have lots of arms. Aside from Bello, none of them are projected as middle of the rotation starters. Winckowski is a back of the rotation guy at best. Walter is a 4/5 maybe. Mata is most likely a bullpen arm. The best pitching prospects (the ones with the highest ceilings) are far away.

[Tedballgame]

Get ready for a lot of 7-6, 8-7, 9-8 games because, while the Sox have shown they will hit, the pitching staff, outside of one or two guys, SUCKS. Bloom should be fired mid season if this keeps up.

[mvp 78]

Get ready for a lot of 7-6, 8-7, 9-8 games because, while the Sox have shown they will hit, the pitching staff, outside of one or two guys, SUCKS. Bloom should be fired mid season if this keeps up.

 

If the rotation is 30th in the league on Memorial Day, he'll be fired at the BBQ.

[Tedballgame]

If the rotation is 30th in the league on Memorial Day, he'll be fired at the BBQ.

 

Usually, in April, with cold weather, the pitching is better than the hitting until it warms up. The Sox are proving that theory wrong.

[moonslav59]

If the rotation is 30th in the league on Memorial Day, he'll be fired at the BBQ.

 

It's going to take a lot of gems to get out of the bottom 5.

[notin]

If the rotation is 30th in the league on Memorial Day, he'll be fired at the BBQ.

 

You think he still gets invited if they’re 30th?

 

 

One thing to bear in mind is the Sox have 5 pitchers out right now, and it’s impacting the rotation and the pen. There may never be a day when the entire staff is healthy, but they still could step up if the returning arms do what they’ve shown they’re capable of…

[notin]

Yes, they have lots of arms. Aside from Bello, none of them are projected as middle of the rotation starters. Winckowski is a back of the rotation guy at best. Walter is a 4/5 maybe. Mata is most likely a bullpen arm. The best pitching prospects (the ones with the highest ceilings) are far away.

 

I think you do still have to count Whitlock. He and Bello could be big parts of this rotation for the next 4 years…

[mvp 78]

Offense:

9th in K%

18th in BB%

5th in HR

1st in R

20th in SB (only 1)

4th in wRC+

 

Pitching

8th in K/9

24th in BB/9

28th in ERA

19th in xFIP

 

Starting Pitching

2nd in K/9

27th in BB/9

30th in ERA

30th in xFIP

[mvp 78]

You think he still gets invited if they’re 30th?

 

 

One thing to bear in mind is the Sox have 5 pitchers out right now, and it’s impacting the rotation and the pen. There may never be a day when the entire staff is healthy, but they still could step up if the returning arms do what they’ve shown they’re capable of…

 

That doesn't fix what Brasier, Sale and Kluber did in the Orioles series. They would be on the roster if the other 5 pitchers were healthy.

[moonslav59]

You think he still gets invited if they’re 30th?

 

 

One thing to bear in mind is the Sox have 5 pitchers out right now, and it’s impacting the rotation and the pen. There may never be a day when the entire staff is healthy, but they still could step up if the returning arms do what they’ve shown they’re capable of…

 

We expected 2-4 to be out at any given moment.

[Maxbialystock]

To remind--

 

The Sox payroll (according to spotrac) is currently ranked 14th in MLB, which is unprecedented in the John Henry era.

He kept Devers, but let Bogey go to the Padres.

 

I think he is convinced he ain't buying no more "great pitchers" because his experience is that they don't last long--and Sale is just the latest example.

[mvp 78]

To remind--

 

The Sox payroll (according to spotrac) is currently ranked 14th in MLB, which is unprecedented in the John Henry era.

He kept Devers, but let Bogey go to the Padres.

 

I think he is convinced he ain't buying no more "great pitchers" because his experience is that they don't last long--and Sale is just the latest example.

 

Projected Total Tax Allocations: $214M (11th)

Tax Threshold: $233M (7 teams are projected to be over: Mets, Yanks, Jays, Phillies, Pads, Doyers, Braves)

 

It's interesting because the SoxProspect guys were saying they only had a few million to spend before they hit the cap and that's part of the reason they didn't want to add Alfaro. Not sure how accurate Spotrac's projections are.

[moonslav59]

To remind--

 

The Sox payroll (according to spotrac) is currently ranked 14th in MLB, which is unprecedented in the John Henry era.

He kept Devers, but let Bogey go to the Padres.

 

I think he is convinced he ain't buying no more "great pitchers" because his experience is that they don't last long--and Sale is just the latest example.

 

The Devers extension was huge, but it kicks in, next year.

 

I expected Bloom to spend $10-15M more, and had hoped the money would go further than the inflated salaries allowed, but Bloom had enough to make a difference.

 

He chose to spend most on the O and the pen. He neglected the rotation and defense.

 

$10M on Kluber to replace Nate, Wacha and Hill

 

$50M on Jansen & Martin

 

About $120M on Yoshida, Turner, Duvall and Kike (signed during the 2022 season)

 

(plus $140M spent on Story, last March and $313M on Devers going forward.)

 

We can see where the financial priorities are, recently have been and look to be going forward, as of this moment in time.

 

[moonslav59]

Projected Total Tax Allocations: $214M (11th)

Tax Threshold: $233M (7 teams are projected to be over: Mets, Yanks, Jays, Phillies, Pads, Doyers, Braves)

 

It's interesting because the SoxProspect guys were saying they only had a few million to spend before they hit the cap and that's part of the reason they didn't want to add Alfaro. Not sure how accurate Spotrac's projections are.

 

cots has us almost $18M under, but they have been off, recently.

[mvp 78]

He chose to spend most on the O and the pen. He neglected the rotation and defense.

 

The pen has been good (aside from DFA candidates Brasier and Ort) and the offense has been good.

 

Maybe he needs to focus on the rotation at some point? IDK, it just seems like a plan that isn't working well.