A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Are we mathematically eliminated yet ?

 

I heard Kluber pitched well and Sale won a game.

[moonslav59]

Are we mathematically eliminated yet ?

 

Some seem to feel it is all but certain.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, yeah, we get it, you two are above all that.

 

But honestly, we all have our fandom and our ways of expressing it. This place is cathartic for me. In the old days before the internet, I had to keep my suffering to myself unless there was another Sox fan around.

[moonslav59]

How many big splash FA SP'er signings have worked out over recent years?

 

2023:

37 x 5 deGrom

27 x 6 Rodon

43 x 2 Verlander

15 x 5 Senga

18 x 4 Walker

17 x 4 Taillon

21 x 3 Bassitt

13 x 3 Eflin

17 x 2 Nate

(10 x 1 Kluber)

 

2022:

43 x 3 Scherzer

23 x 5 R Ray

22 x 5 Gausman

15 x 5 ERod

24 x 3 Stroman

14 x 4 Jon Gray

25 x 2 Verlander

22 x 2 Rodon

11 x 4 Matz

12 x 3 Kikuchi

6 x 4 N Martinez

13 x 2 Alex Wood

21 x 1 Syndergaard

10 x 2 Cobb

17 x 1 Kershaw

13 x 1 Greinke

8 x 1 Kluber & T Anderson

(5 x 2 Paxton, 7 x 1 Wacha and 5 x 1 RHill)

 

2021:

34 x 3 Bauer

8 x 3 Odorizzi

8 x 3 T Walker

19 x 1 Gausman

19 x 1 Stroman

9 x 2 M Minor

15 x 1 Morton

11 x 1 Kluber

11 x 1 Smyly

10 x 1 Richards

(5 x 1 Perez)

 

2020:

36 x 9 Gerrit Cole

35 x 7 S Strasburg

24 x 5 Z Wheeler

17 x 5 M Bumgarner

20 x 4 H-J Ryu

18 x 3 Keuchel

9 x 3 K Gibson

12 x 2 T Roark

10 x 2 M Pineda

18 x 1 Cole Hamels

 

2019:

23 x 6 Corbin

17 x 4 Nate

14 x 4 Kikuchi

17 x 2 Happ

15 x 2 Morton

10 x 2 An Sanchez

18 x 1 J-H Ryu

8 x 2 Richards

13 x 1 Keuchel

11 x 1 Harvey

 

2018:

21 x 6 Darvish

25 x 3 Arrieta

14 x 4 Cobb

13 x 3 M Minor

8 x 2 J Vargas & A Cashner

 

2017:

16 x 3 RHill

9 x 3 I Nova

11 x 2 Volquez

 

2016:

31 x 7 Price

34 x 6 Greinke

22 x 6 Cueto

22 x 5 Zimmerman

18 x 5 Samardzija

16 x 5 Chen & Leake

15 x 5 I Kennedy

16 x 4 Kazmir

 

2015:

30 x 7 Scherzer

26 x 6 Lester

19 x 4 Shields

14 x 4 Santana

12 x 4 McCarthy

13 x 3 Liriano

 

[moonslav59]

Yeah, yeah, we get it, you two are above all that.

 

But honestly, we all have our fandom and our ways of expressing it. This place is cathartic for me. In the old days before the internet, I had to keep my suffering to myself unless there was another Sox fan around.

 

Hardly.

 

I was maybe the first to jump ship, last summer.

 

I hear you on commiserating with fellow Sox fans. I came to these sites, when I moved to Mexico and had nobody to talk Sox with.

 

[Nick]

My comment was directed more towards my favorite Yankee poster on this board. I just wished he joined in on the discussion other than 1) when the Sox is playing bad or 2) when a Sox player gets hurt. Then he disappears for weeks at a time when the Yankees lose couple of games. His posts are solid for most part.

 

I will reserve judgement on the quality of our starting pitching until the return of Whitlock and Bello. Paxton contribution would be an added bonus.

 

Our top 4 workhorses last year were Pivetta 33GS/179IP, Hill 26GS/124IP, Wacha 23GS/127IP (11-2 w/l) and Eovaldi 20GS, 109 IP. 8 other pitchers started 60 games.

 

Pivetta is back after starting 33 games last year. BUT, BUT there's some talk that he may go to the bullpen. Why in the hell is that? Isn't it logical to assume someone or a group in the Sox organization believe we have 5 BETTER starting pitchers? How does that equate to our starting pitching being WORSE?

 

Now much of what Bloom and Cora believe doesn't bore out. Maybe they're overvaluing this years starting group.

 

But the group of Pivetta, Sale, Kluber, Houck, Bello, Whitlock and Paxton looks to put up better numbers than last year's group. Add improved bullpen and I just don't see how we SUCK.

 

AND, the two who won't start will push out the #7 and #8 ranked relievers in the pen.

 

Let's wait at least until May 1st to wave the white flag.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

My comment was directed more towards my favorite Yankee poster on this board. I just wished he joined in on the discussion other than 1) when the Sox is playing bad or 2) when a Sox player gets hurt. Then he disappears for weeks at a time when the Yankees lose couple of games. His posts are solid for most part.

 

I will reserve judgement on the quality of our starting pitching until the return of Whitlock and Bello. Paxton contribution would be an added bonus.

 

Our top 4 workhorses last year were Pivetta 33GS/179IP, Hill 26GS/124IP, Wacha 23GS/127IP (11-2 w/l) and Eovaldi 20GS, 109 IP. 8 other pitchers started 60 games.

 

Pivetta is back after starting 33 games last year. BUT, BUT there's some talk that he may go to the bullpen. Why in the hell is that? Isn't it logical to assume someone or a group in the Sox organization believe we have 5 BETTER starting pitchers? How does that equate to our starting pitching being WORSE?

 

Now much of what Bloom and Cora believe doesn't bore out. Maybe they're overvaluing this years starting group.

 

But the group of Pivetta, Sale, Kluber, Houck, Bello, Whitlock and Paxton looks to put up better numbers than last year's group. Add improved bullpen and I just don't see how we SUCK.

 

AND, the two who won't start will push out the #7 and #8 ranked relievers in the pen.

 

Let's wait at least until May 1st to wave the white flag.

 

I'd only change May 1st to Memorial Day.

[Nick]

Whitlock threw 81 pitches, 56 for strikes. 6 innings of 1 hit ball (HR), 8 K's.

 

We should see him next week vs Tampa.

I'll be watching. Must see TV.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Whitlock threw 81 pitches, 56 for strikes. 6 innings of 1 hit ball (HR), 8 K's.

 

We should see him next week vs Tampa.

I'll be watching. Must see TV.

 

The health is the important part. He should be mowing down AA hitters.

[mvp 78]

I'd only change May 1st to Memorial Day.

 

Yup. May 1 is too early to waive the white flag IMO. Memorial Day gives you a much better idea of where you are at.

[Old Red]

The health is the important part. He should be mowing down AA hitters.

 

It will be a good first test for him in Tampa next week.

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

“When I have small thoughts, big results happen. When I have big results in my mind, nothing happens. I like leading off. It’s been a lot of fun and overall I’m just trying to run hard, run faster, steal more bases.”

 

He had 1 stolen base last season. He can probably double that!

[harmony]

@jcmccaffrey

“When I have small thoughts, big results happen. When I have big results in my mind, nothing happens. I like leading off. It’s been a lot of fun and overall I’m just trying to run hard, run faster, steal more bases.”

 

He had 1 stolen base last season. He can probably double that!

But Alex Verdugo attempted four steals last season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But Alex Verdugo attempted four steals last season.

 

He only forgot how many outs there were 17 times. Or was that 75? It was something with a seven in it...

[moonslav59]

Yup. May 1 is too early to waive the white flag IMO. Memorial Day gives you a much better idea of where you are at.

 

Sometimes, you get a feel for how a team's make-up is going to carry or drop for the rest of the season by mid May, and certainly some teams can turn things around, for the good or bad, late in a season, but by the end of May, it seems like you just kinda "know."

 

Last year, we had hopes some players would be returning from injuries and that Casas might be ready to replace Dalbec, but then he got hurt. We went 14-14 in May after that 9-13 April, and then June gave us false hopes (20-6), before July (8-19) and August (12-16) ended any sliver of hope.

[oldtimer]

Sometimes, you get a feel for how a team's make-up is going to carry or drop for the rest of the season by mid May, and certainly some teams can turn things around, for the good or bad, late in a season, but by the end of May, it seems like you just kinda "know."

 

Last year, we had hopes some players would be returning from injuries and that Casas might be ready to replace Dalbec, but then he got hurt. We went 14-14 in May after that 9-13 April, and then June gave us false hopes (20-6), before July (8-19) and August (12-16) ended any sliver of hope.

 

The first 12 games in May will be a real test of whether we can compete against the better teams. I don't expect even 500 ball this year. The only way we get there is if our starting pitching improves.

[moonslav59]

14 AL Teams are within 2.5 games of each other.

 

Only the Rays (7-0) stand alone, although 3 teams are within 2.5 of them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sometimes, you get a feel for how a team's make-up is going to carry or drop for the rest of the season by mid May, and certainly some teams can turn things around, for the good or bad, late in a season, but by the end of May, it seems like you just kinda "know."

 

Last year, we had hopes some players would be returning from injuries and that Casas might be ready to replace Dalbec, but then he got hurt. We went 14-14 in May after that 9-13 April, and then June gave us false hopes (20-6), before July (8-19) and August (12-16) ended any sliver of hope.

 

At the end of last June we "knew" what a bear the July schedule would be. And that the Sox would need reinforcements in the month before the deadline (they got none).

 

This season's early schedule is also ominous: after Detroit, Boston plays 16 straight vs. FIRST PLACE teams: Tampa, LA, Minny, Milwaukee. The Red Sox defense is LAST in the American League in defensive runs saved at -10. At least we have reinforcements coming in Whitlock and Bello... hope they can pitch to no contact.

[moonslav59]

At the end of last June we "knew" what a bear the July schedule would be. And that the Sox would need reinforcements in the month before the deadline (they got none).

 

This season's early schedule is also ominous: after Detroit, Boston plays 16 straight vs. FIRST PLACE teams: Tampa, LA, Minny, Milwaukee. The Red Sox defense is LAST in the American League in defensive runs saved at -10. At least we have reinforcements coming in Whitlock and Bello... hope they can pitch to no contact.

 

We did have hopes some players would be returning back in 2022, as well, but perhaps with more uncertainty about time table and effectiveness of those about to return.

 

Kike went out June 7th and didn't return until mid August. I'm not sure he was suspected to be out so long. He had been a big key to the second half and playoff success of 2021.

 

Story's injury in Mid July was a killer. He had hit .786 in his previous 2 months.

 

The worst part, of course, was the massive overlap of SP'er injuries that forced us to go too deep on the rotation depth chart:

Whitlock: June 7 to July 15

Nate: June 8 to July 15

Wacha: June 28 to August 14

R Hill: July 1 to August 3

Houck: August 2 to end of season

Sale: made 2 starts in mid July then missed the rest of the season

Paxton: never made it.

 

It would have been close to impossible to foresee such a timing scheme of injury like that. We ended up starting 12 different pitchers with Paxton never getting a start. For argument's sake, this might have been our rotation depth chart with all healthy:

1. Sale 2 GS

2. Nate 20

3. Paxton 0

4. Wacha 23

5. Hill 26

6. Pivetta 33

7. Whitlock 9

8. Houck 4

9. Winckowski 14

10. Crawford 12

11. Bello 11

(Davis 3)

 

We were forced to yank Houck and Whitlock from successful pen roles and then use Wink, Crawford, Seabold and Bello for 42 starts, That's nearly the same as Nate + Wach (43). It's almost double Sale, Paxton, Nate (22)- our best 3 SP'ers.

 

Not many teams can overcome that.

 

The Houck injury came after the trade deadline, but the rest were before it and some left hopes of prompt returns to action. It never happened.

 

Devers playing hurt in August only added to the confluence misfortune.

 

[Maxbialystock]

The first 12 games in May will be a real test of whether we can compete against the better teams. I don't expect even 500 ball this year. The only way we get there is if our starting pitching improves.

 

Very sensible.

 

I'm with moonslav in thinking the pitching will in fact improve. Klubar and Sale both stunk in their first starts and then came right back with decent starts the second time around. I think they will be OK, but we'll just have to see. I see no hope for Crawford, but know both Whitcomb and Bello are on their way back and have pitched well against non-MLB lineups. I also have doubts about Houck and Pivetta, but both have had decent starts.

 

Undercutting the pitching so far has been an absolutely dreadful defense who/which (Devers and McGuire) caused two of the four losses to date. Hernandez already has 3 errors at SS. On top of that, not much range in the outfield, nor especially good arms.

 

Baserunning is also so-so.

 

But, if the pitching--including an improved bullpen--and hitting are OK, the Sox could finish above .500.

[Maxbialystock]

We did have hopes some players would be returning back in 2022, as well, but perhaps with more uncertainty about time table and effectiveness of those about to return.

 

Kike went out June 7th and didn't return until mid August. I'm not sure he was suspected to be out so long. He had been a big key to the second half and playoff success of 2021.

 

Story's injury in Mid July was a killer. He had hit .786 in his previous 2 months.

 

The worst part, of course, was the massive overlap of SP'er injuries that forced us to go too deep on the rotation depth chart:

Whitlock: June 7 to July 15

Nate: June 8 to July 15

Wacha: June 28 to August 14

R Hill: July 1 to August 3

Houck: August 2 to end of season

Sale: made 2 starts in mid July then missed the rest of the season

Paxton: never made it.

 

It would have been close to impossible to foresee such a timing scheme of injury like that. We ended up starting 12 different pitchers with Paxton never getting a start. For argument's sake, this might have been our rotation depth chart with all healthy:

1. Sale 2 GS

2. Nate 20

3. Paxton 0

4. Wacha 23

5. Hill 26

6. Pivetta 33

7. Whitlock 9

8. Houck 4

9. Winckowski 14

10. Crawford 12

11. Bello 11

(Davis 3)

 

We were forced to yank Houck and Whitlock from successful pen roles and then use Wink, Crawford, Seabold and Bello for 42 starts, That's nearly the same as Nate + Wach (43). It's almost double Sale, Paxton, Nate (22)- our best 3 SP'ers.

 

Not many teams can overcome that.

 

The Houck injury came after the trade deadline, but the rest were before it and some left hopes of prompt returns to action. It never happened.

 

Devers playing hurt in August only added to the confluence misfortune.

 

 

I love it. Incomparable moonslav analysis.

[moonslav59]

Very sensible.

 

I'm with moonslav in thinking the pitching will in fact improve. Klubar and Sale both stunk in their first starts and then came right back with decent starts the second time around. I think they will be OK, but we'll just have to see. I see no hope for Crawford, but know both Whitcomb and Bello are on their way back and have pitched well against non-MLB lineups. I also have doubts about Houck and Pivetta, but both have had decent starts.

 

Undercutting the pitching so far has been an absolutely dreadful defense who/which (Devers and McGuire) caused two of the four losses to date. Hernandez already has 3 errors at SS. On top of that, not much range in the outfield, nor especially good arms.

 

Baserunning is also so-so.

 

But, if the pitching--including an improved bullpen--and hitting are OK, the Sox could finish above .500.

 

I'm not certain about our pitching being okay. They almost have to get better- only because they have been so very bad, up to now.

 

To me, we have a pretty solid 6 SP'ers and sketchy but still more promising depth than recent years. They still need to do it on the mound, but I do remain optimistic, as long as injuries don't equal last year's totals.

 

If we can keep 4-5 of these top 6 healthy, at almost all times, we'd have a real chance:

Sale

Whitlock

Kluber

Bello

Paxton

Pivetta

 

If no, we'll need 1-2 from this group to shine:

Crawford

Mata

Walter, Murphy, Drohan

move Wink back to SP?

 

[moonslav59]

CBS MLB Sox Injury Report and ETAs:

 

at least until...

 

APRIL

11 Whitlock

16 Bello

24 Paxton

 

MAY

1 J Rodriguez

1 Mills

30 Mondesi

 

June

 

July

14 Story

[moonslav59]

4-4 after 8 games.

 

Now what I had hoped for, but there is plenty of season left to play.

 

The O looks fine, so far.

 

The D looks real bad.

 

The pitching seems to be improving.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4-4 after 8 games.

 

Now what I had hoped for, but there is plenty of season left to play.

 

The O looks fine, so far.

 

The D looks real bad.

 

The pitching seems to be improving.

 

 

The offense is doing what it should vs. bad pitching, but will balance out overall. Duvall probably won't finish the season batting .483, but neither will Kike at .115.

 

The big problem is that defense usually doesn't have slumps or hot streaks; it is what it is. The next four straight series vs. first place teams have the potential to expose the players, the manager and especially the CBO who assembled this roster. Those 16 games also offer the Red Sox a chance to show they can hang with the big boys.

 

Tampa has crushed everyone but played no one: three last-place teams (at least 96 losses each last year). The Angels look improved. The Brewers have lights-out pitching. The Twins have pitching and defense... their odd offseason strategy has paid off so far; acquiring Gold Glover Michael Taylor to roam centerfield so they could DH -- and preserve -- the gifted but fragile body of Byron Buxton.

 

Taylor, a legitimate centerfielder, cost Minnesota $4.5 million...

[Old Red]

The offense is doing what it should vs. bad pitching, but will balance out overall. Duvall probably won't finish the season batting .483, but neither will Kike at .115.

 

The big problem is that defense usually doesn't have slumps or hot streaks; it is what it is. The next four straight series vs. first place teams have the potential to expose the players, the manager and especially the CBO who assembled this roster. Those 16 games also offer the Red Sox a chance to show they can hang with the big boys.

 

Tampa has crushed everyone but played no one: three last-place teams (at least 96 losses each last year). The Angels look improved. The Brewers have lights-out pitching. The Twins have pitching and defense... their odd offseason strategy has paid off so far; acquiring Gold Glover Michael Taylor to roam centerfield so they could DH -- and preserve -- the gifted but fragile body of Byron Buxton.

 

Taylor, a legitimate centerfielder, cost Minnesota $4.5 million...

Let’s bring on TB, and see how they stack up, against a better team, and better pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

Taylor, a legitimate centerfielder, cost Minnesota $4.5 million...

 

Taylor also presently has a .527 OPS with 0 runs and 0 RBI. You can imagine what Sox fans would have to say about that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Taylor also presently has a .527 OPS with 0 runs and 0 RBI. You can imagine what Sox fans would have to say about that.

 

They'd say when Taylor beamed down as a member of a Star Trek landing party, he'd always wear a red shirt... translation: expendable.

[notin]

Taylor also presently has a .527 OPS with 0 runs and 0 RBI. You can imagine what Sox fans would have to say about that.

 

He should be starting over Duvall!!!

[Larry Cook]

They'd say when Taylor beamed down as a member of a Star Trek landing party, he'd always wear a red shirt... translation: expendable.

 

We got a scary high number of guys on our 26 man roster that should be classified as Star trek security personnel (red shirts)

 

And then we got brazier. He is definitely a member of the Star Trek security personnel team (red shirts). But brazier’s name tag says “Lazarus”!!!!!