A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

The curious case of Reese McGuire's CERA with the Sox continues. I have it at 6.58 now - 179 earned runs in 245 innings. Yes, I know it's likely a statistical anomaly. But it's a disturbing one.

[Old Red]

The curious case of Reese McGuire's CERA with the Sox continues. I have it at 6.58 now - 179 earned runs in 245 innings. Yes, I know it's likely a statistical anomaly. But it's a disturbing one.

 

I think the CERA stat itself is pretty meaningless. Johnny Bench wouldn’t have made Kluber, or Sale any better the last two days.

[Nick]

Common sense overcomes analytics at times. (there's my wussy cover at the end).

[Hugh2]

I’m pretty unimpressed by CERA, I think it’s a good reason to penalize good catchers when the guy throwing to them is laying eggs. By all accounts McGuire is a good defensive catcher. The question mark with him will be his bat.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the CERA stat itself is pretty meaningless. Johnny Bench wouldn’t have made Kluber, or Sale any better the last two days.

 

I totally understand that position. Still, these numbers are freaky.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have given up 83 runs in their last 12 games including spring games. The fewest given up in any of those games is 4. That needs to turn around in a hurry.

[Old Red]

I totally understand that position. Still, these numbers are freaky.

 

I agree, but Pedro, and Roger haven’t been throwing to him, or anything close.

[Nick]

I wonder how many Sox fans we've lost having already jumped off the Green Monster the last few days?

Some poster here made a good point about our 'core' group not having been finalized and THAT may take couple of more years. I can wait.

 

Two pitchers in that group, Whitlock and Bello are almost ready to return. Tanner is slated for the pen I believe.

 

1B, 3B and LF are set. 3B is the leader. We can be patient at 1B because the production was so inept last year. We have to wait for LF only because of 5 years and $90M.

 

2B is covered for 5 more years but it starts in 2024 due to injury.

 

Meanwhile we hope that the stop gap singings of Duvall's and Turner's will keep us near the playoff chase.

 

I'm not concerned about the outings of Kluber and Sale. Hell, I'm just glad they didn't get hurt. That's where we are right now. I'm waiting for Whitlock, Bello and maybe Paxton's return to get a clearer picture of this team.

 

Lastly, does Bloom understand that many of us are thinking that expecting a different result from the same guy is very flawed when it comes to Brasier? I can only shake my head on that one.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m pretty unimpressed by CERA, I think it’s a good reason to penalize good catchers when the guy throwing to them is laying eggs. By all accounts McGuire is a good defensive catcher. The question mark with him will be his bat.

 

McGuire had no chance to throw out anyone on the 10 stolen bases, but if pitchers aren't going to keep runners close, I'd like to at least see him throw behind the runners once in awhile. You know Vazquez would've thrown to first every time Mateo or Mullins was on base.

 

Question about the new rules: if a catcher throws down to first, does that delay the reset of the clock for the next pitch?

[Old Red]

The Sox have given up 83 runs in their last 12 games including spring games. The fewest given up in any of those games is 4. That needs to turn around in a hurry.

 

I agree, and I don’t think Kluber, or Sale are going to be as bad as they were the last few days. Kluber didn’t have his usual control, and Sale did have some velo. I don’t think Sale will be the old Sale anymore, but he should be better than yesterday.

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder how many Sox fans we've lost having already jumped off the Green Monster the last few days?

Some poster here made a good point about our 'core' group not having been finalized and THAT may take couple of more years. I can wait.

 

Are we supposed to be happy with seasons like 2022 in the meantime?

[Old Red]

Are we supposed to be happy with seasons like 2022 in the meantime?

 

Not only no, but hell no! We’ve been through this many times before. I know some are willing to wait, but I think that’s few to the many on the other side. Bloom, and JH got booed back in January, and fans booed on opening day. This team to many are not getting any leeway, and aren’t willing to wait anymore, and anything less than a trip to the PS this year will be totally unacceptable. Like I’ve said before there is NO guarantee that all the prized suspects will turn out to be as good as what everyone is hoping for.

[mvp 78]

The curious case of Reese McGuire's CERA with the Sox continues. I have it at 6.58 now - 179 earned runs in 245 innings. Yes, I know it's likely a statistical anomaly. But it's a disturbing one.

 

Sale flat out sucked. The relievers were good.

[mvp 78]

I totally understand that position. Still, these numbers are freaky.

 

The sample size for McGuire is too small here.

[Old Red]

The sample size for McGuire is too small here.

 

The starting pitching has sucked, but just as troubling is the ease at which the O’s are stealing bases.

[Nick]

Are we supposed to be happy with seasons like 2022 in the meantime?

 

I do think 2023 will be better than 2022.

 

I've already spoken about our pen being much improved and should generate 6-8 more wins.

 

I'm just not as negative as many are here.

 

Who knows what will become of Casas? Do you? I think he'll be good for us but all we can do is wait. That's the state of our organization.

[moonslav59]

The curious case of Reese McGuire's CERA with the Sox continues. I have it at 6.58 now - 179 earned runs in 245 innings. Yes, I know it's likely a statistical anomaly. But it's a disturbing one.

 

It is a pretty small sample size, and when he joined the team, last August, not only should an adjustment period be given, the team and staff were in chaos. McGuire never caught Nate, Houck or Wacha and hardly caught any of Whitlock and Strahm. That's maybe 5 of our best 7 pitchers of 2022. (Hill & Schreiber being the other two, and RM did not catch more of them than his share.)

 

With all the change-overs from 2022 to 2023, it's like a brand new staff.

 

Here are the pitchers he caught the most in 2023 by PAs Against:

186 Pivetta

120 Hill

110 Crawford

67 Bello

67 Brasier

60 Schreiber

52 Barnes

46 Ort

45 Winck

41 Davis

35 Seabold

31 Danish

30 Sawamura

29 Bazardo

26 Familia

While the bottom 6 on this list do not have large sample sizes, their total PA is 192, which is more than with Pivetta.

 

Look how McGuire's PAA list compares to the full season list of PAs Against by Sox pitchers:

 

773 Pivetta

526 Hill (120 w RM)

515 Wacha (0 w Rease McGuire- a huge disparity)

460 Nate (0 w RM- a huge disparity)

334 Crawford

316 Winck

311 Whitlock (only 21 w RM- a huge disparity)

268 Bello (only 67 w RM)

263 Brasier

257 Schreiber (only 60 w RM)

254 Davis

247 Houck (0 w RM)

221 Sawamura

193 Strahm (only 19 w RM)

176 Barnes

134 Ort

111 Robles

 

As you can see by the pitchers highlighted in red, RM hardly caught 5 of our very best pitchers.

 

The biggest disparities in RM's favor (meaning more PAs w Reese than an even distribution would be) were Pivetta, Hill and Crawford- not really our best pitchers, except for Hill.

 

It was large an apples and oranges scenario, last year.

 

The two game sample size of 2023 does look frightening, as did the ST'ing numbers, but I think there is still an adjustment period underway. Sale and Kluber are new to RM.

 

OPSA in 2023:

1.168 w McGuire

1.460 Kluber (19 PAs)

1.526 Sale (19 PAs)

1.125 Ort (9)

1.270 Kelly (9)

.286 Wink (7)

1.214 Brasier (7)

.650 Jansen (5)

1.167 Schreiber (4)

.000 Martin (3)

 

with Wong (.844):

1.100 Martin (5)

.400 Wink (5)

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

The starting pitching has sucked, but just as troubling is the ease at which the O’s are stealing bases.

 

The Orioles figured out how to exploit the pitch clock.

 

Up until this year, baserunners have used keys from the pitcher to optimize their jump, most common being the left heel (RHP) or the chin (LHP). Using these they could determine when a pitcher was going home or not.

 

Now, just watch the pitch clock. It’s probably possible for most pitchers to simply see how long they hold the ball before starting their windup, but also if the clock just gets down to 2-3 seconds - just run. The pitcher doesn’t have time to throw over.

 

The pitch clock (and other rules) have also all but done away with holding runners. Leads get longer. Why not? Virtually no risk.

 

So easier timing + longer leads = easier steals.

 

The Orioles clearly saw this. Now Boston has seen it firsthand and needs to follow in their exploitation of these same rules…

[moonslav59]

I wonder how many Sox fans we've lost having already jumped off the Green Monster the last few days?

Some poster here made a good point about our 'core' group not having been finalized and THAT may take couple of more years. I can wait.

 

Two pitchers in that group, Whitlock and Bello are almost ready to return. Tanner is slated for the pen I believe.

 

1B, 3B and LF are set. 3B is the leader. We can be patient at 1B because the production was so inept last year. We have to wait for LF only because of 5 years and $90M.

 

2B is covered for 5 more years but it starts in 2024 due to injury.

 

Meanwhile we hope that the stop gap singings of Duvall's and Turner's will keep us near the playoff chase.

 

I'm not concerned about the outings of Kluber and Sale. Hell, I'm just glad they didn't get hurt. That's where we are right now. I'm waiting for Whitlock, Bello and maybe Paxton's return to get a clearer picture of this team.

 

Lastly, does Bloom understand that many of us are thinking that expecting a different result from the same guy is very flawed when it comes to Brasier? I can only shake my head on that one.

 

Good points.

 

When you look at what positions seem "covered" for 3 or more years, it's interesting to see what we have on the farm at the positions not covered.

 

Covered:

C: McGuire/Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida

UT: Chang

 

Uncovered/ to be covered by???:

SS: Mayer/Romero

CF: Rafaela

RF: Paulino/Anthony/Abreu/Duran

DH: Dalbec/ EValdez/Kavadas

UT: Yorke/Hamilton/Lugo/Bonaci/Jordan

 

Pitchers:

Covered

SP: Whitlock, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski (Sale w option)

RP: Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Mills, Ort

 

Uncovered

SP Mata

SP Walter

SP Murphy/Perales/Wikelman

RP Fernandez/ Converted SP'ers

 

[moonslav59]

The Orioles figured out how to exploit the pitch clock.

 

Up until this year, baserunners have used keys from the pitcher to optimize their jump, most common being the left heel (RHP) or the chin (LHP). Using these they could determine when a pitcher was going home or not.

 

Now, just watch the pitch clock. It’s probably possible for most pitchers to simply see how long they hold the ball before starting their windup, but also if the clock just gets down to 2-3 seconds - just run. The pitcher doesn’t have time to throw over.

 

The pitch clock (and other rules) have also all but done away with holding runners. Leads get longer. Why not? Virtually no risk.

 

So easier timing + longer leads = easier steals.

 

The Orioles clearly saw this. Now Boston has seen it firsthand and needs to follow in their exploitation of these same rules…

 

Shouldn't this have been something we knew and did from day one?

[Nick]

Good points.

 

When you look at what positions seem "covered" for 3 or more years, it's interesting to see what we have on the farm at the positions not covered.

 

Covered:

C: McGuire/Wong

1B: Casas

2B: Story

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida

UT: Chang

 

Uncovered/ to be covered by???:

SS: Mayer/Romero

CF: Rafaela

RF: Paulino/Anthony/Abreu/Duran

DH: Dalbec/ EValdez/Kavadas

UT: Yorke/Hamilton/Lugo/Bonaci/Jordan

 

Pitchers:

Covered

SP: Whitlock, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski (Sale w option)

RP: Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Mills, Ort

 

Uncovered

SP Mata

SP Walter

SP Murphy/Perales/Wikelman

RP Fernandez/ Converted SP'ers

 

 

Great post Moon.

 

I enjoyed watching the game today. Houck I thought looked good for most part. Unfortunate that he gave up two homers in the fifth inning.

 

Schreiber looks to be last year's version.

 

This team will score runs at home.

 

Last year? We lost first 5 series vs AL East, going 5-11.

 

Duvall and Turner will light up at home. Yoshida will figure it out.

[notin]

Shouldn't this have been something we knew and did from day one?

 

Probably, but really only Baltimore has been exploiting the hell out of it…

[moonslav59]

Great post Moon.

 

I enjoyed watching the game today. Houck I thought looked good for most part. Unfortunate that he gave up two homers in the fifth inning.

 

Schreiber looks to be last year's version.

 

This team will score runs at home.

 

Last year? We lost first 5 series vs AL East, going 5-11.

 

Duvall and Turner will light up at home. Yoshida will figure it out.

 

I like to see Yoshida at least walking a ton while he works on upping his BA.

 

Our early OBP Numbers:

 

.600 Duvall

.533 Turner

.467 Devers

.455 Kike

.400 Yoshida

.400 Dugo

.400 Ref

.333 Casas

 

Team: .395 (4th)

 

We are also 4th in SLG at .564 and OPS at .959 after just 3 games.

 

We are 27th in ERA at 7.67. OUCH!!! (28th in WHIP at 1.96)

 

[moonslav59]

Probably, but really only Baltimore has been exploiting the hell out of it…

 

Sure, but why not be out in front on something we all saw coming?

 

SB Leaders

10 BAL 3 gms

6 HOU 4g

5 NYY 3G

5 CWS 4g

5 CLE 4g

4 AZ, NYM, SEA 4g

 

We and 11 other teams have 1. Five have none.

[notin]

Sure, but why not be out in front on something we all saw coming?

 

SB Leaders

10 BAL 3 gms

6 HOU 4g

5 NYY 3G

5 CWS 4g

5 CLE 4g

4 AZ, NYM, SEA 4g

 

We and 11 other teams have 1. Five have none.

 

This feels like a question better handled by Alex Cora…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sure, but why not be out in front on something we all saw coming?

 

SB Leaders

10 BAL 3 gms

6 HOU 4g

5 NYY 3G

5 CWS 4g

5 CLE 4g

4 AZ, NYM, SEA 4g

 

We and 11 other teams have 1. Five have none.

 

Thanks for the crime report.

 

On the one hand, people will say the O's have some speedsters.

 

On the other foot, every club has a few -- except only one team got to run against Boston... so far.

[moonslav59]

This feels like a question better handled by Alex Cora…

 

Yup!

 

Where is the extra tough Boston media?

[moonslav59]

Upcoming schedule:

 

PIT

PIT

PIT

@DET

Off

@DET

@DET

@TBR for 4

LAA for 4

MN for 3

@MIL for 3

@BAL for 3

Day off after 19 straight days with games scheduled

 

A tougher stretch begins:

3 v CLE

4 v TOR

3 @ PHI

Day Off May 8th

2 @ ATL

Day Off May 11th

3 v STL

3 v SEA

Day Off May 18th

3 @ SDP

Day Off May 25th

 

 

[Hugh2]

There's a reason why they still put 2022 stats on the NESN feed right now.

[notin]

Yup!

 

Where is the extra tough Boston media?

 

Too busy learning to write pressure-laden articles in Japanese?