A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

When the exit velocity of your HR is 106 MPH, but it's still called WIND BLOWN... SMDH...

 

Jet streamed!2-11 with 6K’s. What if those were Duvall’s stats? Would we go with he’s been on base every game. It’s only been 4 games, so there is plenty of time for Casas to get rolling.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Old Red

[mvp 78]

Jet streamed!2-11 with 6K’s. What if those were Duvall’s stats? Would we go with he’s been on base every game. It’s only been 4 games, so there is plenty of time for Casas to get rolling.

 

Yes, it's only been 4 games.

 

1. I'm only worried about Arroyo, because he's never been good enough to be a starter.

2. The starting rotation has looked bad and needs to show improvement the next time through or there is a HUGE problem.

[moonslav59]

A 102 OPS+ from 2020-2022 is not bad for a 2Bman. Arroyo's is a career +9 DRS 2Bman in 923 innings with a +5.7 UZR/150.

 

Injuries have been Arroyo's downfall.

 

He seems "good enough:" just not healthy enough.

[mvp 78]

A 102 OPS+ from 2020-2022 is not bad for a 2Bman. Arroyo's is a career +9 DRS 2Bman in 923 innings with a +5.7 UZR/150.

 

Injuries have been Arroyo's downfall.

 

He seems "good enough:" just not healthy enough.

 

Stinks like a poopy diaper.

[Bellhorn04]

This team has a lot of problems.

 

Yours, Johnny Obvious.

[moonslav59]

It's only 5 games, and I get the feeling, if we had just flipped one loss to a win and were 3-2, the mood would be much different.

 

That being said, starting off with the O's and Pirates was a gift we squandered.

 

I think our rotation will settle down, but we can't be digging a hole, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

It was 5 Gloves who pointed out that this team goes against the adage that you're supposed to be strong up the middle. Until Story gets back, our middle is McGuire/Wong, Arroyo, Kike and Duvall. It'll be *interesting* to see what our defensive numbers look like as the sample grows.

[mvp 78]

It was 5 Gloves who pointed out that this team goes against the adage that you're supposed to be strong up the middle. Until Story gets back, our middle is McGuire/Wong, Arroyo, Kike and Duvall. It'll be *interesting* to see what our defensive numbers look like as the sample grows.

 

Also the adage of "pitching wins championships" since Bloom is allergic to building a rotation.

[moonslav59]

It was 5 Gloves who pointed out that this team goes against the adage that you're supposed to be strong up the middle. Until Story gets back, our middle is McGuire/Wong, Arroyo, Kike and Duvall. It'll be *interesting* to see what our defensive numbers look like as the sample grows.

 

Tiny sample sizes:

 

SS: Kike -2 DRS (-7.0 UZR/150) I guess that Willie Mays catch didn't help enough.

career: +7 (+9.1)

 

2B: Arroyo -1 DRS (+0.1 UZR/150) career +9 (+5.8)

 

CF: Duvall -1 DRS (-37.5) career +3 (+2.8)

 

C: McGuire -1 DRS/ career +5

[Bellhorn04]

Also the adage of "pitching wins championships" since Bloom is allergic to building a rotation.

 

It feels like the man has a 10 Year Plan that he has yet to really unfold. It feels like this year basically means nothing.

[moonslav59]

Also the adage of "pitching wins championships" since Bloom is allergic to building a rotation.

 

Hard to win with poor starting pitching AND defense up the middle.

 

The pen can only go so far.

 

It's hard to imagine the rotation not improving. The bar they have now set is about as low as can go.

 

We need a major uptick, and maybe Whitlock, Bello and or Paxton can provide a spark.

[moonslav59]

It feels like the man has a 10 Year Plan that he has yet to really unfold. It feels like this year basically means nothing.

 

I was thinking it was a 5 year plan, but as with Ben, I don't think Henry's patience lasts that long. (And he got a ring!)

[mvp 78]

It feels like the man has a 10 Year Plan that he has yet to really unfold. It feels like this year basically means nothing.

 

It shouldn't take 10 years. 6 at most. They had enough talent to deal that they could have restocked the farm system early on.

[mvp 78]

I was thinking it was a 5 year plan, but as with Ben, I don't think Henry's patience lasts that long. (And he got a ring!)

 

I don't know if anyone can really say for sure what Henry is thinking.

[moonslav59]

It shouldn't take 10 years. 6 at most. They had enough talent to deal that they could have restocked the farm system early on.

 

They tried to restock the farm, quickly, but almost every trade for prospects has yielded nothing or next to nothing. Some returns are still pending, but nothing jumps out at you as something special. (Hamilton, EValdez, Abreu, Wink...)

 

The real swing and miss was not making more deals, last deadline. We've beaten that horse to death, but in hindsight, we missed a golden opportunity to get real value for the future.

 

Doing well in 2021 lowered our draft picks and bonus pool money, but it does seem like the farm should be looking better, by now. It's also a bit telling to see how many of our current top prospects are not Bloom additions:

 

(Bello just graduated and was a DD guy.)

 

2. Casas

4. Rafaela

5. Mata

8. Perales

9. Walter

10. Paulino

13. Lugo

14. Wikelman

 

I realize many teams' top prospects were acquired 4 or more years ago, so maybe this is not such a big deal.

 

[moonslav59]

7 teams off to better starts than us, in the AL. 7 with the same or worse records out of the gate, including...

 

2-3 HOU

1-3 TOR

1-4 SEA

 

All 3 expected to better us in '23.

 

We are 1/2 game behind BAL and the last WC berth.

 

The sky is falling!

[Bellhorn04]

7 teams off to better starts than us, in the AL. 7 with the same or worse records out of the gate, including...

 

2-3 HOU

1-3 TOR

1-4 SEA

 

All 3 expected to better us in '23.

 

We are 1/2 game behind BAL and the last WC berth.

 

The sky is falling!

 

That's the spirit.

[moonslav59]

That's the spirit.

 

I'm not feeling good about the start to '23, but we've only gone through the rotation once and may have 3 other SP'ers give it a try before the end of April or early May (Whitlock, Bello & Paxton.)

 

The pen has done fine, and once we add those SP'ers to the staff, the worst pen arms will be demoted or see less action.

 

The O looks fine.

 

When and if Story and Mondesi return, the D should improve, too.

[mvp 78]

I'm not feeling good about the start to '23, but we've only gone through the rotation once and may have 3 other SP'ers give it a try before the end of April or early May (Whitlock, Bello & Paxton.)

 

The pen has done fine, and once we add those SP'ers to the staff, the worst pen arms will be demoted or see less action.

 

The O looks fine.

 

When and if Story and Mondesi return, the D should improve, too.

 

Relievers are tied for 6th in fWAR. One of 5 teams to not give up a HR. 5th in FIP.

[moonslav59]

Relievers are tied for 6th in fWAR. One of 5 teams to not give up a HR. 5th in FIP.

 

If the rotation is added to with Whitlock and Bello or Paxton, there's a chance the pen can get even better by minimizing the innings Ort, Kelly and Brasier are given- or at least medium to high leverage innings.

[a700hitter]

If the rotation is added to with Whitlock and Bello or Paxton, there's a chance the pen can get even better by minimizing the innings Ort, Kelly and Brasier are given- or at least medium to high leverage innings.

Paxton! LOL!

[notin]

If the rotation is added to with Whitlock and Bello or Paxton, there's a chance the pen can get even better by minimizing the innings Ort, Kelly and Brasier are given- or at least medium to high leverage innings.

 

Paxton is going to minimize bullpen innings?

[Hugh2]

If the rotation is added to with Whitlock and Bello or Paxton, there's a chance the pen can get even better by minimizing the innings Ort, Kelly and Brasier are given- or at least medium to high leverage innings.

 

Ort actually wasn't that bad his last two times out. He still has much to prove.

[notin]

Ort actually wasn't that bad his last two times out. He still has much to prove.

 

I’m not buying Ort just yet, but I think I’ve stopped selling on him. Or at least I’ve stopped leaving him outside and hoping some wandering vagrant steals him…

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not feeling good about the start to '23, but we've only gone through the rotation once and may have 3 other SP'ers give it a try before the end of April or early May (Whitlock, Bello & Paxton.)

 

The pen has done fine, and once we add those SP'ers to the staff, the worst pen arms will be demoted or see less action.

 

The O looks fine.

 

When and if Story and Mondesi return, the D should improve, too.

 

Honestly? I see nothing "fine." The hitting tailed off badly vs. the Pirates after the first inning of the first game--which was followed by 3 runs in 26 innings. The pitching remains suspect. And the defense is not suspect; it's just plain lousy.

 

I commend you for polling that the Sox would have a winning record this season, and I definitely hope you're right and I'm as wrong as wrong can be.

[moonslav59]

Honestly? I see nothing "fine." The hitting tailed off badly vs. the Pirates after the first inning of the first game--which was followed by 3 runs in 26 innings. The pitching remains suspect. And the defense is not suspect; it's just plain lousy.

 

I commend you for polling that the Sox would have a winning record this season, and I definitely hope you're right and I'm as wrong as wrong can be.

 

I don't get swayed by a 2 game O drought.

[Old Red]

Honestly? I see nothing "fine." The hitting tailed off badly vs. the Pirates after the first inning of the first game--which was followed by 3 runs in 26 innings. The pitching remains suspect. And the defense is not suspect; it's just plain lousy.

 

I commend you for polling that the Sox would have a winning record this season, and I definitely hope you're right and I'm as wrong as wrong can be.

The hitting definitely did tail off for some, and never got started for others. Yoshida, Casas, Arroyo, and Kike, so take your pick.

[Nick]

Realistically the goal for me is for the team to hang around .500 as Bello and Whitlock returns. Anything Paxton can give us above and beyond Pivetta would be a plus.

 

Kluber pitched better today. We need a big year from Sale. Stay healthy and give us chance to win more games than not.

[moonslav59]

Realistically the goal for me is for the team to hang around .500 as Bello and Whitlock returns. Anything Paxton can give us above and beyond Pivetta would be a plus.

 

Kluber pitched better today. We need a big year from Sale. Stay healthy and give us chance to win more games than not.

 

I just mentioned Paxton as a possible option to push one of our pen guys off the 13 or to less innings needed, but certainly Whitlock and Bello look to be better options. Moving Houck and or Crawford into long man RP roles could free us from ever needing Ort, Brasier and Kelly in any meaningful innings.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Realistically the goal for me is for the team to hang around .500 as Bello and Whitlock returns. Anything Paxton can give us above and beyond Pivetta would be a plus.

 

Kluber pitched better today. We need a big year from Sale. Stay healthy and give us chance to win more games than not.

 

Paxton should join the team in a couple weeks, when he will give us more than Pivetta. The plan is for Paxton to chart pitches when Pivetta starts... capped at four innings in the beginning, then the coaching staff will stretch out his fingers slowly, eventually allowing him to chart three times through the order -- even after the bullpen relieves Nick. Cora knows where he's at, and will take care of him. Bushy already has a supply of reading glasses available.