A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

And the Jays jettisoned Collins.

 

So?

 

The Red Sox jettisoned Jeter Downs. Does that mean they gave up on Mookie?

[moonslav59]

Hes' really good defenseively, and since he's been in Boston he's been good with the bat too. I'm not sure where the McGuire hate from left field comes from after opening day. But to each their own.

 

I've heard he is supposed to be very good on D, but it is something very hard to quantify.

 

His MLB sample sizes are not all that large. He has never started more than 70 games as a catcher in a MLB setting.

 

One major area of concern, to me, is how he relates with the staff, and what his abilities are at bringing out the best from pitchers on the staff, especially those he catches the most.

 

Since Wong and Alfaro are also new to the staff, it may be hard to evaluate this area, until an adjustment period is reached and sample sizes are large enough to meaningfully evaluate.

[mvp 78]

Hes' really good defenseively, and since he's been in Boston he's been good with the bat too. I'm not sure where the McGuire hate from left field comes from after opening day. But to each their own.

 

His CERA from last year was bad. The pitchers pitched bad yesterday. Therefore, McGuire is a bad catcher!

 

Now, is CERA a stat that you can find on FanGraphs? If not, why?

[mvp 78]

I've heard he is supposed to be very good on D, but it is something very hard to quantify.

 

His MLB sample sizes are not all that large. He has never started more than 70 games as a catcher in a MLB setting.

 

One major area of concern, to me, is how he relates with the staff, and what his abilities are at bringing out the best from pitchers on the staff, especially those he catches the most.

 

Since Wong and Alfaro are also new to the staff, it may be hard to evaluate this area, until an adjustment period is reached and sample sizes are large enough to meaningfully evaluate.

 

Metrics say that McGuire is a decent catcher.

 

The organization believes that Wong can be a good catcher.

 

All reports have stated that Alfaro is a terrible catcher. The only thing that he is good at is pop time and arm strength, BUT it doesn't even correlate with a high caught stealing rate!

[Bellhorn04]

So?

 

The Red Sox jettisoned Jeter Downs. Does that mean they gave up on Mookie?

 

Not a serious argument.

[Bellhorn04]

His CERA from last year was bad. The pitchers pitched bad yesterday. Therefore, McGuire is a bad catcher!

 

Now, is CERA a stat that you can find on FanGraphs? If not, why?

 

I think what's worrisome to me is that Bloom just seems to try a lot of stuff to see if it works...or not.

 

McGuire has never been a #1 catcher and he bounced around like a ping-pong ball last year, but now he's our #1 catcher.

[moonslav59]

Metrics say that McGuire is a decent catcher.

 

The organization believes that Wong can be a good catcher.

 

All reports have stated that Alfaro is a terrible catcher. The only thing that he is good at is pop time and arm strength, BUT it doesn't even correlate with a high caught stealing rate!

 

Since all our catchers have virtually no experience with our staff, nobody should have an advantage when compared to each other.

 

One would expect McGuire to do better with the same pitchers Alfaro would catch, and since Wong's defensive and CERA-related skills are largely unknown, it's hard to no what to expect on that comp.

 

I'm not sure will have a firm idea on how good McGuire or Wong are in this area, even by season's end.

Edited March 31, 2023 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

so?

 

The red sox jettisoned jeter downs. Does that mean they gave up on mookie?

 

w o w!

[mvp 78]

I think what's worrisome to me is that Bloom just seems to try a lot of stuff to see if it works...or not.

 

McGuire has never been a #1 catcher and he bounced around like a ping-pong ball last year, but now he's our #1 catcher.

 

In 2023, what is a #1 catcher?

 

In 2022:

Only 5 catchers qualified for the batting title.

Only 14 had 400 PA's (this includes DH appearances and other positions).

[Hugh2]

In 2023, what is a #1 catcher?

 

In 2022:

Only 5 catchers qualified for the batting title.

Only 14 had 400 PA's (this includes DH appearances and other positions).

 

I’ll say it before and I’ll say it again. McGuire has only played through his age 27 season. Catchers aew notorious late bloomers. They focus on their defense so much more than other position players in the minors.

 

McGuire might just be a lousy offensive player with plus D behind the player, might work out to be a plus if they platoon him right with Wong. But he could also poised for a breakout year.

[notin]

Not a serious argument.

 

The point is the fate of the players they acquired doesn’t mean they didn’t value McGuire. In Toronto’s case, if you revisit the MLBTR article, they moved McGuire for exactly the reasons I said - he didn’t have an option, they didn’t want to carry 3 catchers, and Collins had an option. That Collins didn’t work out for them of immaterial.

 

I mean, 3 days ago, the A’s waived (and eventually traded) Cristina Pache, a key part of the Matt Olson trade. That Pache didn’t work out has no bearing on how they called Olson. It does mean they probably overvalued Pache at some point…

[mvp 78]

I’ll say it before and I’ll say it again. McGuire has only played through his age 27 season. Catchers aew notorious late bloomers. They focus on their defense so much more than other position players in the minors.

 

McGuire might just be a lousy offensive player with plus D behind the player, might work out to be a plus if they platoon him right with Wong. But he could also poised for a breakout year.

 

OR he could just be an adequate replacement catcher for a few years until the Sox actually figure out a plan for the future (Hickey, Brannon, etc.). Not every player has to be an All Star. Christian Vazquez is getting paid 12M this year and there's no way I'd pay him that.

[moonslav59]

In 2023, what is a #1 catcher?

 

In 2022:

Only 5 catchers qualified for the batting title.

Only 14 had 400 PA's (this includes DH appearances and other positions).

 

There are so few catchers, these days, who get over 400 PAs as a catcher only.

 

Last year, Vaz got...

 

390 as a catcher

21 at 1B

11 as a PH'er

4 as a DH

 

He is widely viewed as a FT catcher for several years.

[moonslav59]

I’ll say it before and I’ll say it again. McGuire has only played through his age 27 season. Catchers aew notorious late bloomers. They focus on their defense so much more than other position players in the minors.

 

McGuire might just be a lousy offensive player with plus D behind the player, might work out to be a plus if they platoon him right with Wong. But he could also poised for a breakout year.

 

Excellent points.

 

While Varitek did have his first season over .800 at age 27, it took him until ages 31-33 to do it 3 years in a row.

 

I don't believe, his defense was not all that highly regarded, at first, but maybe catching Wake early in his career hurt his numbers. He had 57 PBs from 1998-2000, including 2 seasons leading the league, there. He also allowed 58 WPs in those 3 years for a whopping 115 PB+WP. His CS% was never great (23%,) but to me the most telling improvement came in the CERA area.

 

I normally frown upon just using overall CERA by catching tandems, since most of the time, they tend to catch different SP'ers almost exclusively, but I will list the year by year CERA numbers to show VTek's improvement occured mostly in his early 30's:

 

1998: 4.10 Hatteberg/ 4.29 VTek (age 26)

1999: 3.13 Hatteberg/ 3.98 VTek (age 27)

 

2000: 3.96 VTek (age 28)/ 5.02 Hatteberg

2001: 3.00 VTek (age 29)/ 4.60 Hatteberg/ 4.75 Mirabelli (generally regarded as + on D)

2002: 3.74 VTek/ 3.83 Mirabelli- essentially tied

2003: 4.46 Mirabelli/ 4.49 VTek- essentially tied

2004: 4.18 VTek/4.26 Mirabelli- same

2005: Ooops! 3.73 Mirabelli/ 5.02 VTek (Mirabelli, basically caught only Wake)

2006: 4.54 Mirabelli/ 4.84 VTek/ 5.58 JLopez/ 5.26 J Bard

2007: 3.80 VTek (age 35)/ 4.09 Mirabelli/ 3.95 K Cash

2008: 3.66 VTek (age 36)/ 4.81 KCash

2009: 3.87 VTek (age 37)/ 5.22 VMart/ 5.36 Kottaras

2010: 4.05 VTek/ 4.28 VMart (VTek was no longer the starting catcher at age 38)

 

 

[notin]

OR he could just be an adequate replacement catcher for a few years until the Sox actually figure out a plan for the future (Hickey, Brannon, etc.). Not every player has to be an All Star. Christian Vazquez is getting paid 12M this year and there's no way I'd pay him that.

 

He’s not a long term solution. He’s a stopgap backstop that they hope can at least hold everything together…

[notin]

OR he could just be an adequate replacement catcher for a few years until the Sox actually figure out a plan for the future (Hickey, Brannon, etc.). Not every player has to be an All Star. Christian Vazquez is getting paid 12M this year and there's no way I'd pay him that.

 

Vazquez is better than McGuire. Of course he’s also older and costs over 6 times as much…

[Old Red]

He’s not a long term solution. He’s a stopgap backstop that they hope can at least hold everything together…

 

Outside of 3B, 1B, and LF who isn’t a stopgap on this team at the moment?

[Larry Cook]

Outside of 3B, 1B, and LF who isn’t a stopgap on this team at the moment?

 

Isn’t that Hang’em Chaim’s strategy, 1-2 year contracts while the farm system produces talent?

 

What I can not understand is how Hang’em Chaim can be so terrible at building a bullpen?????

[notin]

Outside of 3B, 1B, and LF who isn’t a stopgap on this team at the moment?

 

Story. Four more years…

[Old Red]

Story. Four more years…

 

He may have four more years left on his contract after this year, but I’m guessing they won’t be all in a Red Sox uniform.

[Hugh2]

I will toot my horn for being one of the only guys on the Duvall train.

[moonslav59]

I will toot my horn for being one of the only guys on the Duvall train.

 

Chooo- Chooo!

[Larry Cook]

I will toot my horn for being one of the only guys on the Duvall train.

 

It’s a long season and we are only 2 games in!!!

[moonslav59]

It’s a long season and we are only 2 games in!!!

 

Keep the horns tooting!

 

God knows we hear the kazoos blaring when we lose.

[notin]

He may have four more years left on his contract after this year, but I’m guessing they won’t be all in a Red Sox uniform.

 

So you think other teams want him?

[Hugh2]

It’s a long season and we are only 2 games in!!!

 

If he sucks I’ll own it. But my cup is half full

[moonslav59]

If he sucks I’ll own it. But my cup is half full

 

To me, the biggest danger with Duvall is injury- not suckiness.

[Larry Cook]

To me, the biggest danger with Duvall is injury- not suckiness.

 

That is true!!! And our medical staff is not what I would call even remotely competent

[Old Red]

I will toot my horn for being one of the only guys on the Duvall train.

 

Like I said in the game thread Duvall if healthy is going to miss some, and pile up the K’s, and he’s going to hit some, and pile up some HR’s. He had a good last part of ST, and it’s carried over into the start of the season. I think the biggest complaint about Duvall by some on here was Duvall in CF.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Like I said in the game thread Duvall if healthy is going to miss some, and pile up the K’s, and he’s going to hit some, and pile up some HR’s. He had a good last part of ST, and it’s carried over into the start of the season. I think the biggest complaint about Duvall by some on here was Duvall in CF.

 

Correct. That's nothing against Adam personally, but as usual the fault of the front office for contriving flexibility that doesn't always highlight a player's best ability. Duvall's is pull power, and being a streak hitter. His success at the end of ST wasn't supposed to matter to those who think preseason results meaningless... but ask any player if they'd rather suck the week before going North.

 

We'd all like to see consistent contact hitters up and down the line-up, but not that many exist in baseball. Not even Raffy, who can hit a line-drive whenever he wants, but feels he has to overswing at every pitch with the game on the line. Most look better with opposite-field approaches, like we know Turner, Verdugo, Yoshida, and Casas can deploy.

 

Meanwhile, enjoy the streaks of Duvall's final ABs in the first two games, the classic of all (walk-off HR) or nothing (walk-back-to-dugout K). And hope for a lot more streak-hitters to get hot, like Kike and Arroyo, while waiting for promising young arms to stabilize the rotation...