A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

The offense is doing what it should vs. bad pitching, but will balance out overall. Duvall probably won't finish the season batting .483, but neither will Kike at .115.

 

The big problem is that defense usually doesn't have slumps or hot streaks; it is what it is. The next four straight series vs. first place teams have the potential to expose the players, the manager and especially the CBO who assembled this roster. Those 16 games also offer the Red Sox a chance to show they can hang with the big boys.

 

Tampa has crushed everyone but played no one: three last-place teams (at least 96 losses each last year). The Angels look improved. The Brewers have lights-out pitching. The Twins have pitching and defense... their odd offseason strategy has paid off so far; acquiring Gold Glover Michael Taylor to roam centerfield so they could DH -- and preserve -- the gifted but fragile body of Byron Buxton.

 

Taylor, a legitimate centerfielder, cost Minnesota $4.5 million...

 

It will be a big test when we play better teams, and we should be 5-3 vs who we just played, but every year there are examples where we do well vs some good teams and poorly vs some bad teams:

 

2022

4-2 v HOU, 2-1 v STL, 6-1 v SEA, 5-2 v CLE

1-2 v Cubs, 3-4 v KCR

 

2021

3-1 v ATL, 10-9 v NYY & TOR

3-4 v TEX & 3-3 v OAK

 

I know our offense won't be this good, all year, but it looks solid, to me, even without Story.

 

Our D might improve, if we can get Kike to CF and Story & or Mondesi back to the middle IF.

 

Our pitching is the wild card in so many ways. We have a lot of pitchers who could be very good or even great, but they could also not do very well or get hurt, again.

 

[moonslav59]

We got a scary high number of guys on our 26 man roster that should be classified as Star trek security personnel (red shirts)

 

And then we got brazier. He is definitely a member of the Star Trek security personnel team (red shirts). But brazier’s name tag says “Lazarus”!!!!!

 

I think you are on to sometqhing: Brasiers new nickname should be Brasarus.

 

[Nick]

I apologize but I just don't care for Brazier's stupid facial expression. He always looks bewildered.

 

Same with Matt Barnes. He never looked confident.

[Nick]

No matter what happens today, I hope I don't see Kutter as a starter this year.

[Nick]

Of course I could never take Clay Buckholz (?) Seriously. He was a dead ringer for Fireman Bill in Living Colors.

[moonslav59]

How about the start by the Rays?

 

They are up 8-0, today, and are looking to go 9-0.

 

They sure knew how to take advantage of a favorable early schedule:

 

4-0 DET

12-2 DET

5-1 DET

 

6-2 WAS

10-6 WAS

7-2 WAS

 

9-5 OAK

11-0 OAK

up 8-0, now on OAK

 

No win was by less than 4 runs!

[moonslav59]

A review of some of our most notable contracts:

 

2023 counts as a year...

 

Devers: 11 years remaining with 10 year deal kicking in starting in 2024.

Sale: 2 years remaining with 2025 option at $20M.

Story: 5 years remaining with $25M option for year 7 (2028 w $5M buyout)

Yoshida: 5 years remaining

Whitlock: 4 years with 2 option years ($8.25M w $1M buyout for '27 & $10.5M w $500K buyout for '28)

Jansen: 2 years (no option)

Martin: 2 years (no option)

Kluber: 1 year plus $11M club option

Turner: 1 year with player option and ($6.7M club buyout on $14.3M option)

Bleier: 1 year plus $3.75M club option ($250K buyout)

Joely Rodriguez: 1 year plus $4.25M option ($500k BUYOUT)

Duvall, Kike, Paxton, Mondesi: last year

 

1 arb left after 2023: Dugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Refsnyder

2 arbs left: McGuire & Chang

3 arbs left: Schreiber & Dalbec

Pre-arb in 2014: Houck, Bello, Casas, Winck, Crawford, Wong, Mills, Kelly & all others.

 

[moonslav59]

The AL Standings with a few Sunday games still pending:

 

9-0 TBR

6-2 MIN

6-3 NYY WC1

5-3 LAA

 

5-4 BOS T WC2

5-4 CLE T WC2

5-4 TOR T WC2

 

4-4 TEX

 

4-5 BAL

4-5 SEA

 

4-6 CWS

 

3-6 HOU & KCR

2-7 DET & OAK

[moonslav59]

División Records:

(Several Sunday games still pending)

29-16 ALE

23-17 NLC

21-23 NLW

20-25 ALC

20-25 NLE

18-25 ALW

 

[notin]

I think you are on to sometqhing: Brasiers new nickname should be Brasarus.

 

 

The AL Standings with a few Sunday games still pending:

 

9-0 TBR

6-2 MIN

6-3 NYY WC1

5-3 LAA

 

5-4 BOS T WC2

5-4 CLE T WC2

5-4 TOR T WC2

 

4-4 TEX

 

4-5 BAL

4-5 SEA

 

4-6 CWS

 

3-6 HOU & KCR

2-7 DET & OAK

 

Tampa’s Magic Number is 147!!

[moonslav59]

Tampa’s Magic Number is 147!!

 

...and will be the same, after their next series.

[moonslav59]

Sox Leaders after 9 games (1/18th of the season)

OPS

1.571 Tapia (.571 OBP) 7 PAs

1.544 Duvall (.514) 37

1.084 Devers (.366) 41

.875 Verdugo (.375) 40

.819 McGuire (.357) 14

.745 Yoshida (.378) 37

.714 Casas (.233) 30

.688 Refsnyder (.438) 16

.599 Turner (.357) 42

.586 Kike (.265) 34

.447 Arroyo (.233) 31

.440 Wong (.190) 21

.000 Chang (.000) 6

 

Pitching (listed by most IP)

4.50 Houck 10

8.00 Crawford 9

6.48 Kluber 8.1

11.25 Sale 8.0

1.29 Winckowski 7

1.35 Kelly 6.2

6.00 Ort 6

9.00 Brasier 5

0.00 Martin 5

1.80 Pivetta 5

1.80 Schreiber 5

6.00 Bleier 3

0.00 Jansen 3

 

WHIP

0.71 Winck

1.10 Houck

1.20 Pivetta

1.20 Ort

1.35 Kelly

[Larry Cook]

División Records:

(Several Sunday games still pending)

29-16 ALE

23-17 NLC

21-23 NLW

20-25 ALC

20-25 NLE

18-25 ALW

 

 

The most important statistic for us to watch going forward is our record versus the American League east teams

[moonslav59]

The most important statistic for us to watch going forward is our record versus the American League east teams

 

There are many ways to the promise land, but beating our own division makes it a lot easier (and fun.)

[notin]

No matter what happens today, I hope I don't see Kutter as a starter this year.

 

He’s a depth starter…

[moonslav59]

Pen Game by Game Results:

Game IP/ER

1. 5.2/5 (Brasier 2/Ort 2)

2. 6.0/1 (Kelly 1)

3. 4.0/2 (Bleier 2)

4. 5.0/0

5. 4.0/1 (Wink 1)

6. 4.0/3 (Ort 2/Screiber 1)

7. 4.0/0

8. 4.0/2 (Brasier 2)

9. 4.0/0

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

They'd say when Taylor beamed down as a member of a Star Trek landing party, he'd always wear a red shirt... translation: expendable.

 

Yep. Good field, no hit means "not in Boston." The Sox are fine with a good hitter who can also field, but hitting uber alles.

[Bellhorn04]

Yep. Good field, no hit means "not in Boston." The Sox are fine with a good hitter who can also field, but hitting uber alles.

 

Unless you're talking about the widely acclaimed trade for JBJ last year.

[Nick]

Mass Live promised update on Adam Duvall's injury status at 4:19 pm yesterday. Bloom said "we'll have one (update) tomorrow". It's 12:26 pm. How hard is it to update? He was taken to hospital I assume yesterday evening.

 

Apparently it's the same wrist he had surgery on last year.

 

We can't seem to catch a break these days.

[Nick]

I'm happy that Casas got to play yesterday even though we were facing a lefty.

 

It really doesn't make sense to play Turner over Casas when Turner is struggling himself. Turner is getting on base despite only having 2 RBI's from third spot in the lineup.

 

Move Casas down in the lineup if that's what we have to do.

 

We have to make a commitment to him.

 

He should be #9 on our offensive priority. He seems to play good enough defense.

 

Other 8 position players should be priority over Casas. He's in our long term plan. If NOT, trade him.

Edited April 10, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

Unless you're talking about the widely acclaimed trade for JBJ last year.

 

Bradley flirted with hitting on occasion in his career in Boston. But even when he wasn’t hitting, the list of Sox glove-first centerfielders hardly begins and ends with him…

[Bellhorn04]

I'm happy that Casas got to play yesterday even though we were facing a lefty.

 

It really doesn't make sense to play Turner over Casas when Turner is struggling himself. Turner is getting on base despite only having 2 RBI's from third spot in the lineup.

 

Move Casas down in the lineup if that's what we have to do.

 

We have to make a commitment to him.

 

He should be #9 on our offensive priority. He seems to play good enough defense.

 

Other 8 position players should be priority over Casas. He's in our long term plan. If NOT, trade him.

 

Personally I think Cora is very good at figuring out when to play guys and when to sit them. Casas is definitely a big part of the 2023 team.

[Hugh2]

Bradley flirted with hitting on occasion in his career in Boston. But even when he wasn’t hitting, the list of Sox glove-first centerfielders hardly begins and ends with him…

 

One might be forgiven for thinking JBJ had a much more productive career in front of him after his 2016 campaign.

[Bellhorn04]

One might be forgiven for thinking JBJ had a much more productive career in front of him after his 2016 campaign.

 

Just another reminder that baseball is hard.

[Old Red]

Just another reminder that baseball is hard.

 

Is there any other sport if you fail 7 out of 10 times your considered to be doing good?

[moonslav59]

Bradley flirted with hitting on occasion in his career in Boston. But even when he wasn’t hitting, the list of Sox glove-first centerfielders hardly begins and ends with him…

 

The problem with JBJ was that we always waited and waited for the "hot streak" he so often provided over his career. The guy had some of the most spectacular white hot streaks I can remember. Sometimes the length in between was unbearable, but the hope that it was coming, soon, I think kept him playing, perhaps more than he should have.

 

Some cherry-picked time samples of JBJ's career:

 

2013:

.395 first 43 PAs

.755 last 64 (not really "white hot."

 

2014:

.978 first 23 (not really a large sample size)

.506 last 400 (a hint of long term futility, early in his career)

 

2015:

.384 first 59

.962 last 196, including a white hot stretch of 1.361 over 102 PAs

 

2016:

.679 first 81

.858 last 554, including 2 white hot streaks of 1.479 in 54 PAs and 1.153 in 149 (overlapping)

 

2017:

.519 first 77

.995 middle 199

.589 last 265

 

2018:

.503 first 142/.563 first 251

.793 last 393/ .851 last 284

 

2019:

.421 first 125

.846 last 422, including 1.057 in a 157 stretch

 

2020:

.593 first 82

.951 last 135 (1.008 last 71)

 

2021 MIL:

.594 first 109

.463 last 286

 

2022:

.730 first 35

.558 last 255 w BOS

 

He has to be one of MLB's most streaky hitters, and almost always starting off cold.

[jad]

Is there any other sport if you fail 7 out of 10 times your considered to be doing good?

 

golf

[moonslav59]

Is there any other sport if you fail 7 out of 10 times your considered to be doing good?

 

Hockey and Soccer, if you count shots on goal vs goals.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is there any other sport if you fail 7 out of 10 times your considered to be doing good?

 

How about any other profession, period?

 

And I'm not buying golf, hockey or soccer -- where the athlete generally stops the ball or puck and aims it in the direction he wants. What kind of a batting average would a guy have if they allowed him to toss the ball up and hit it, like a coach smacking fungoes or grounder practice?

 

I'm told that it's hard to hit a golf ball, even though it just sits there, and nobody on the other team is trying to stop it, and everyone has to be totally silent. Meanwhile, I'm just trying to survive in the batter's box, hoping not to get beaned from a pitcher firing 90 mph at my head, while his teammates and fans get to scream at me, "“Hey batterbatterbatter! Swing batter! He-can't-hit, he-can't-hit, he-can't-hit, SUH-WING batter!”

[Old Red]

How about any other profession, period?

 

And I'm not buying golf, hockey or soccer -- where the athlete generally stops the ball or puck and aims it in the direction he wants. What kind of a batting average would a guy have if they allowed him to toss the ball up and hit it, like a coach smacking fungoes or grounder practice?

 

I'm told that it's hard to hit a golf ball, even though it just sits there, and nobody on the other team is trying to stop it, and everyone has to be totally silent. Meanwhile, I'm just trying to survive in the batter's box, hoping not to get beaned from a pitcher firing 90 mph at my head, while his teammates and fans get to scream at me, "“Hey batterbatterbatter! Swing batter! He-can't-hit, he-can't-hit, he-can't-hit, SUH-WING batter!”

 

Agree, and a 300 hitter in baseball is thought in a way more positive way than a soccer, hockey, or a golfer with the examples given.