A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

cots has us almost $18M under, but they have been off, recently.

 

I would like to trust one source, but I don't know what it would be right now.

 

Oh well.

[moonslav59]

The pen has been good (aside from DFA candidates Brasier and Ort) and the offense has been good.

 

Maybe he needs to focus on the rotation at some point? IDK, it just seems like a plan that isn't working well.

 

It certainly looks like he may have been able to spend a little less on the O and direct it towards pitching and or defense, but it is early yet.

 

I'd add Kelly to ther list of early pen busts.

 

If our rotation can just stay healthy and strong enough to keep Wink as a long man and bring Houck back, our pen can become a real strength, and maybe we can yank some starters a bit earlier:

 

Jansen

Martin

Screiber

Bleier

Rodriguez

 

Houck

Winckowski

Maybe Crawford or Mata

[moonslav59]

I would like to trust one source, but I don't know what it would be right now.

 

Oh well.

 

I can't see how anyone can say we are $2-3M within the limit.

[moonslav59]

Nick Deeds provides an update on Story:

 

Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, today that Trevor Story is doing well in his rehab, and providing an update about his progress. Story has begun regularly fielding groundballs in the infield dating back to camp this spring, and will begin throwing in two weeks. He’ll advance to hitting next month, sixteen weeks after his elbow surgery. That’s great news for Boston fans, as it means Story is still on track to make his season debut sometime around the middle of the season.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock will start one more game in AAA, Thursday and then be ready for MLB, if all goes well. That means an April 11 or 12th return.

[Maxbialystock]

I think you do still have to count Whitlock. He and Bello could be big parts of this rotation for the next 4 years…

 

Agree completely. I also think Klubar and especially Chris Sale have simply been unprofessional.

[mvp 78]

I can't see how anyone can say we are $2-3M within the limit.

 

No idea.

[mvp 78]

Nick Deeds provides an update on Story:

 

Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, today that Trevor Story is doing well in his rehab, and providing an update about his progress. Story has begun regularly fielding groundballs in the infield dating back to camp this spring, and will begin throwing in two weeks. He’ll advance to hitting next month, sixteen weeks after his elbow surgery. That’s great news for Boston fans, as it means Story is still on track to make his season debut sometime around the middle of the season.

 

To play 2b, right?

[mvp 78]

Whitlock will start one more game in AAA, Thursday and then be ready for MLB, if all goes well. That means an April 11 or 12th return.

 

He'll get CERA bombed by McGuire!

[moonslav59]

He'll get CERA bombed by McGuire!

 

I'm sure some are ready to pounce.

[moonslav59]

To play 2b, right?

 

My guess is 2B, but one poster seems sure it will be SS.

[moonslav59]

No idea.

 

It's easy to get an idea.

 

The numbers are readily available. Some of the option buy outs and bonuses get tricky, I can see how anyone can say we are within $2-3M of the tax line, if the bonuses count and the Turner option is counted differently.

25.6 Sale (cots and spotrac agree)

23.3 Story (agree)

18.0 Yoshida (agree)

17.5 Devers (rock solid number)

16.0 Jansen (rock)

10.0 Kike (rock)

10.0 Kluber (agree)

10.9 Turner (agree)

7.5 Martin (Spotrac has $6.8M)

7.0 Duvall (rock)

6.3 Dugo (rock)

5.4 Pivetta (rock)

4.7 Whitlock (rock)

4.0 Paxton (agree)

3.0 Bleier (agree)

3.0 Mondesi (agree)

2.0 Arroyo (rock)

2.0 Brasier (rock)

2.0 JRod (rock)

1.2 McGuire (rock)

1.2 Ref (rock)

+5.6 Barnes payment (Spotrac has $4.89M & Hosmer $1.8M)

+1.7 0-3 bonus pool (agree)

+2.3 Forty Man (Spotrac agrees)

+16.5 Player Benefits (agree)

 

Total $215.1 cots/$213.7 spotrac

 

There is $2M for Alfaro on a minor league deal.

Bonuses listed on cots:

$500K Kluber for 20 GS, $750 for 25 and nother for 30 GS.

$200K Turner for each PA milestone: 480, 500, 520, 540, 560 and a $6.7M buyout on an $8.3M 2023 contract, which looks like $15M guaranteed, so this could add $3-4M, if counted differently.

$500K Duval for each PA milestone: 350, 400, 450, 500 and $1M for 550.

$200M Paxton for starting 20, 22, 24 or 26 games.

 

Maybe some add up all the bonuses and count them, but that looks like just $6-7M tops. Add$2M for Alfaro and $4M more for Turner and we still look to be within $2-3M.

 

The bonuses and Turner contract might be the biggest factor.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Agree completely. I also think Klubar and especially Chris Sale have simply been unprofessional.

 

Based on one bad start?

[mvp 78]

My guess is 2B, but one poster seems sure it will be SS.

 

We'll see. They were planning on SS to start the year. Depends on what the rest of the roster looks like in June/July.

[moonslav59]

We'll see. They were planning on SS to start the year. Depends on what the rest of the roster looks like in June/July.

 

If Arroyo is healthy and doing well, moving Kike to CF makes sense, but that would bench someone from Turner (Yoshida to DH), Casas (Turner to 1B), Duvall, Dugo or Yoshida. This does not seem like a good idea, so maybe Kike moves to 2B, or we just keep Kike at SS and play Story at 2B, and Arroyo becomes the utility guy.

 

I doubt Mondesi has a say in anything.

[mvp 78]

If Arroyo is healthy and doing well, moving Kike to CF makes sense, but that would bench someone from Turner (Yoshida to DH), Casas (Turner to 1B), Duvall, Dugo or Yoshida. This does not seem like a good idea, so maybe Kike moves to 2B, or we just keep Kike at SS and play Story at 2B, and Arroyo becomes the utility guy.

 

I doubt Mondesi has a say in anything.

 

Arroyo has also been dreadful.

 

-23 wRC+

 

I noticed at least one ball that Story/Pedroia would have fielded cleanly for an out, but Arroyo let scoot into RF.

[Old Red]

We'll see. They were planning on SS to start the year. Depends on what the rest of the roster looks like in June/July.

 

Finally someone has admitted to what I had speculated right along that the plan was for Story to open the season as the SS before he got hurt when everyone else was wondering who the Red Sox were going to get to play SS. I haven’t even heard anyone ask after the injury until now where Story would play if, and when he comes back now. I have no idea arm wise what he will be able to do, or not do if that happens, so I have no idea where he would end up. A lot could happen between now, and then, and probably will, so I have no idea who would move where. Kike depending on what he does with the bat may be odd man out himself, but things would probably work themselves out.

[Old Red]

Arroyo has also been dreadful.

 

-23 wRC+

 

I noticed at least one ball that Story/Pedroia would have fielded cleanly for an out, but Arroyo let scoot into RF.

Arroyo has been dreadful, and Casas has looked overmatched at the plate at times too. Kike has hit a couple of HR, but hasn’t done much else. It’s only been 4 games, and everything could change tonight, or a week from now. Maybe even the starting pitching will get better.

[mvp 78]

Finally someone has admitted to what I had speculated right along that the plan was for Story to open the season as the SS before he got hurt when everyone else was wondering who the Red Sox were going to get to play SS. I haven’t even heard anyone ask after the injury until now where Story would play if, and when he comes back now. I have no idea arm wise what he will be able to do, or not do if that happens, so I have no idea where he would end up. A lot could happen between now, and then, and probably will, so I have no idea who would move where. Kike depending on what he does with the bat may be odd man out himself, but things would probably work themselves out.

 

Huh? The Sox said that Story was going to be the SS. He revealed the injury after ramping up his practice like a week after the Sox stated he'd be the SS.

[mvp 78]

Arroyo has been dreadful, and Casas has looked overmatched at the plate at times too. Kike has hit a couple of HR, but hasn’t done much else. It’s only been 4 games, and everything could change tonight, or a week from now. Maybe even the starting pitching will get better.

 

Casas has reached base every game this year.

[Old Red]

Huh? The Sox said that Story was going to be the SS. He revealed the injury after ramping up his practice like a week after the Sox stated he'd be the SS.

 

Then why was everyone on here speculating that Story be at 2B, and who would the Red Sox get to play SS? There was many post to that.

[moonslav59]

Arroyo has been dreadful, and Casas has looked overmatched at the plate at times too. Kike has hit a couple of HR, but hasn’t done much else. It’s only been 4 games, and everything could change tonight, or a week from now. Maybe even the starting pitching will get better.

 

Let's hope some players turn things around, mostly our starting pitchers.

 

In defense of Kike, he does also have a .375 OBP, thanks to 2 BBs in 4 games, so he is doing a little more than homering. His D has looked pretty good at SS, too, although he somehow already has a -3 DRS.

 

Casas walked a lot, last fall and in the minors. He's walked a couple times, this year, and IMO, he needs to walk a lot and hit 25+ bombs to be a help, this season.

 

It's interesting to see our early RBI Leaders:

9 Duvall

5 Casas

4 Dugo

3 Kike

2 Arroyo

 

Runs

7 Duvall

5 Turner, Devers, Yoshida

4 Dugo

3 Kike

 

OBP

.650 Duvall

.450 Devers, Turner, Dugo

.400 Yoshida

.375 Kike

 

 

[Old Red]

Casas has reached base every game this year.

 

That’s the standard Cases is getting judged on? He has 6K’s in 11 AB, and has 1 wind blown fly ball past the Pesky Pole.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s the standard Cases is getting judged on? He has 6K’s in 11 AB, and has 1 wind blown fly ball past the Pesky Pole.

 

He's on pace for 200 ribbies.

[Old Red]

He's on pace for 200 ribbies.

 

I’d settle for 80-100.

[moonslav59]

Then why was everyone on here speculating that Story be at 2B, and who would the Red Sox get to play SS? There was many post to that.

 

Many did feel he should be at 2B, and we should have signed or traded for a SS. (Andrus was mentioned, a lot, but he's playing 2B, this year.)

 

I'm not sure many were saying he will play 2B, but maybe some felt he would.

[mvp 78]

Then why was everyone on here speculating that Story be at 2B, and who would the Red Sox get to play SS? There was many post to that.

 

Because the Sox said for a long time that they wanted Xander. Then Xander went to the Padres. Then then the Sox said Story would be the SS. Then then then Story got hurt.

 

Posters were speculating at the time period of the first sentence.

[Old Red]

Because the Sox said for a long time that they wanted Xander. Then Xander went to the Padres. Then then the Sox said Story would be the SS. Then then then Story got hurt.

 

Posters were speculating at the time period of the first sentence.

I think that what others speculated that Bogey’s fate in Boston was sealed when Story was signed, and the Red Sox saying they wanted Xander was just lip service.

[mvp 78]

When the exit velocity of your HR is 106 MPH, but it's still called WIND BLOWN... SMDH...

[Old Red]

He's on pace for 200 ribbies.

 

By that standard pace would be 300K’s.