A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

IMHO, there is always a building component to a rotation.  It's difficult to get all 5 on board at the same time, but with just 4 guys consistently contributing, any team can do some damage.  Right now. we have maybe 2.5 SPs in the zone.  I'd like to get one more decent start from Early, and then get Suarez straightened out.  Bello I have worries about, but we can replace one struggling pitcher.

Indeed, and we still have Tolle, Crawford and Sandoval as possibilities for depth or maybe even pen help, later on in the season.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Schedules are not even at this point, which is a huge factor.  The Red Sox have played Cincy, San Diego, Houston and Milwaukee, all playoff teams from last year (except Houston, who narrowly missed).  The point here isnt that the Six have an excuse for being 4-8, but rather that it’s hard to compare them as a 4-8 team even against other 4-8 teams.  I mean, Toronto is 5-7 against the A’s, White Sox, Rockies and Dodgers.  Does that make them a better team than Boston, or a worse team?

Exactly. 👍

 

[Larry Cook]

On 3/30/2026 at 6:17 AM, moonslav59 said:

Weissert pitched pretty well, last season. He's off to a bad start, but he may end up being a needed plus in our pen, this season.

That was a horrible pitch, especially when 0-2 on a high K guy.

I think most of our wbc guys except abreau are struggling a bit 

[moonslav59]

Some happenings in MLB:

The Tigers were swept by MIN and are in last place.

Seattle has the worst record in MLB.

The Cubs are in last place, despite spending a ton, this winter.

All three teams were picked to win their divisions.

The Marlins are in first place, and PHI in 4th place.

Cincy is a half GB MIL. The Angels, O's and Twins are also in second place.

Isn't baseball a wonderful sport?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Isn't baseball a wonderful sport?

No!

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No!

It's the best.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Some happenings in MLB:

The Tigers were swept by MIN and are in last place.

Seattle has the worst record in MLB.

The Cubs are in last place, despite spending a ton, this winter.

All three teams were picked to win their divisions.

The Marlins are in first place, and PHI in 4th place.

Cincy is a half GB MIL. The Angels, O's and Twins are also in second place.

Isn't baseball a wonderful sport?

Major league baseball produces an almost comical level of randomness.  I swear I'm going to start a thread about that one of these days.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Major league baseball produces an almost comical level of randomness.  I swear I'm going to start a thread about that one of these days.

It's why they need 162 games to filter out some of that randomness.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It's why they need 162 games to filter out some of that randomness.

I agree. But injuries are the wild card 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I agree. But injuries are the wild card 

True, and all teams have them, but soe more than others.

We lost Houck for the season, buts since he was not really a plus in 2025, it's not really a big deal.

Crawford and Sandoval may be back in early May- perhaps as pen additions.

Romy might be the most missed.

Slaten could be a big loss.

Oviedo was kind of unknown to begin with.

Casas could never be counted on, anyway.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True, and all teams have them, but soe more than others.

We lost Houck for the season, buts since he was not really a plus in 2025, it's not really a big deal.

Crawford and Sandoval may be back in early May- perhaps as pen additions.

Romy might be the most missed.

Slaten could be a big loss.

Oviedo was kind of unknown to begin with.

Casas could never be counted on, anyway.

one guy i thought we might miss a little bit was Refsnyder, who is currently hitless in 15 trips to the plate this season for the Mariners. 🤪

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

one guy i thought we might miss a little bit was Refsnyder, who is currently hitless in 15 trips to the plate this season for the Mariners. 🤪

He did rob a HR the other day, while Rafaela is a -4 DRS. 

[moonslav59]

As much as I supported Ref, he was not needed, as we have 4 OF'ers and 4 DHs (some overlapping.)

[moonslav59]

Cora batting Durbin a look in the 2 slot...

Anthony gets a day off after a team day off, yesterday. 

Lets get the win!

[moonslav59]

Some interesting pitchers off to nice starts to 2026:

0.58 WHIP Sandy Alcantara (24.1 IP)

0.76 Jeffrey Springs (18.1)

0.81 Imanaga

0.86 M Gore

0.94 M Kelle

0.98 Sonny Gray

1.04 Crochet

___________

1.26 Joe Ryan

1.33 Gallen

1.38 Pivetta

1.43 Cease

1.47 F Valdez

_______________

1.84 Eovaldi & D Peterson

2.31 Lorenzen

[Maxbialystock]

On 4/9/2026 at 9:54 AM, JoeBrady said:

I'm curious how one determines when players are ready and when they are not.  My general rule is that, on any date on the calendar, 50% of the players are playing worse than they should, and 50% are playing better than they should (to varying degrees).

IRT Story, he was heinous last May, with a .432 OPS and a ridiculous 35/4 K/W.  He had two stretches of 62 PAs with a .292 OPS, followed close behind with a stretch of 55 PAs with a .357.  So how do we know whether or not he is in one of his slumps, or if he is not ready?

All good points.  

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

All good points.  

Yes, a very good point.

I take it farther, too. Like when a player has a bad year in a big city, people claim he wilts under the spotlight, when maybe it was just an off year for some other excuse, combination of excuses or no excuse at all.

When a rookie sucks: They "called him up too early," or "He wasn't ready," when maybe it was just a slump he was due for all along. Maybe an injury. Maybe personal issues.

The same concept can be applied to many scenarios.

[Old Red]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, a very good point.

I take it farther, too. Like when a player has a bad year in a big city, people claim he wilts under the spotlight, when maybe it was just an off year for some other excuse, combination of excuses or no excuse at all.

When a rookie sucks: They "called him up too early," or "He wasn't ready," when maybe it was just a slump he was due for all along. Maybe an injury. Maybe personal issues.

The same concept can be applied to many scenarios.

What, wha, wha. Yes all you say can be true, and especially in Boston. Right now little Anthony looks like he’s not ready to live up to all the hype you, and others have thrown his way, and not the same player who came up last year. Looks like he doesn’t even want to play taking three strikes down the middle of the plate to start a recent game, and not to mention his little League arm. His luster has worn off in a hurry. Hopefully he gets it back sooner than later.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just remember, it's always still early -- until the trade deadline comes, and the CBO didn't do enough to actually help a team that is all about winning championships go all in full throttle for the stretch run before going deep into October.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

What, wha, wha. Yes all you say can be true, and especially in Boston. Right now little Anthony looks like he’s not ready to live up to all the hype you, and others have thrown his way, and not the same player who came up last year. Looks like he doesn’t even want to play taking three strikes down the middle of the plate to start a recent game, and not to mention his little League arm. His luster has worn off in a hurry. Hopefully he gets it back sooner than later.

Luster has worn off early?  13 games into the season?  Wow.  Somewhere Kristian Campbell is thinking “damn they gave up on him fast.”

Not every player hits the ground running.  Jordan Walker, who started the winning rally last night, is finally hitting in his FOURTH MLB SEASON.  He also doesn’t turn 24 until next month.  But St. Louis stood by him through the growing pains, and it looks like it might start paying off…

[oldtimer]

I queried AI relative to Red Sox starts under Cora and this is what I got:

• Slow Starts under Cora: Entering the 2026 season, manager Alex Cora has reportedly overseen "horrible" or slow starts in 7 out of his first 8 seasons.

Is this due to JH's reluctance to spend or is it due to Cora's laid back approach to management. I'd like to see more fire out there. 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I queried AI relative to Red Sox starts under Cora and this is what I got:

• Slow Starts under Cora: Entering the 2026 season, manager Alex Cora has reportedly overseen "horrible" or slow starts in 7 out of his first 8 seasons.

Is this due to JH's reluctance to spend or is it due to Cora's laid back approach to management. I'd like to see more fire out there. 

The one exception has to be 2018, where the Sox started out 16-3…

[notin]

Tsing-Che Cheng has a 1.346 OPS in Worcester after posting a 1.238 OPS in the WBC.  Not sure what that translates to in MLB, but if it’s a number greater than .314, he’s an option over Durbin.

Cheng might also be the best defensive infielder in both Boston and Worcester, which one might think should help his case.

Demote Durbin and promote Cheng?

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Tsing-Che Cheng has a 1.346 OPS in Worcester after posting a 1.238 OPS in the WBC.  Not sure what that translates to in MLB, but if it’s a number greater than .314, he’s an option over Durbin.

Cheng might also be the best defensive infielder in both Boston and Worcester, which one might think should help his case.

Demote Durbin and promote Cheng?

do it. Durbin is boiled crap.

[RedneckRedSoxFan]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

do it. Durbin is boiled crap.

Vinny Capra is also swinging. Isn't he a 3B?

https://www.milb.com/worcester/stats/?playerPool=ALL

Yeah, he's a 3B. Looks like the hitters on Woo Sox so far this year are:

- SS Tsung-Che Cheng: AB - 30, H - 11, HR - 3, AVG - .367, OPS 1.346
- 1B  Mickey Gasper:      AB - 35, H - 14, HR - 3, AVG - .400, OPS 1.257
- SS Nick Sogard:           AB - 40, H - 11, HR - 3, AVG - .275, OPS 1.017
- 3B Vinny Capra:           AB - 31, H - 11, HR - 2, AVG - .290, OPS 1.089
- RF Kristian Campbell  AB - 45, H - 12, HR - 1, AVG - .267, OPS 0.775

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Tsing-Che Cheng has a 1.346 OPS in Worcester after posting a 1.238 OPS in the WBC.  Not sure what that translates to in MLB, but if it’s a number greater than .314, he’s an option over Durbin.

Cheng might also be the best defensive infielder in both Boston and Worcester, which one might think should help his case.

Demote Durbin and promote Cheng?

Be prepared for posters to scramble to hit Caps Lock before tying replies to such blasphemy after 12 whole games of It's Still Too Early To Panic (I bet if this was posted by a new forum member, guys like moonslav, MVP and notin would be hammering their keyboards right now).

Personally, I have no problem with any suggestions by fans who pay for tickets to Fenway or cable/internet fees for NESN and streaming services. Slow starts suck and when new acquisitions are part of the problem, it's even worse. 

We're not that dumb that we can't see immediately that changes have to be made. Because even though the Red Sox -- with the worst record in baseball -- are only 2 games out of a wild card spot, there are 14 other AL teams ahead of them vying for those 6 postseason berths. Cora agrees or he wouldn't have scrambled his batting order already.

Craig Breslow, who still hasn't completed his roster with all his offseason goals, can actually still make impact moves for Big League BATS if he can find another trade partner in panic mode. Who else has as many top pitching prospects to dangle?????

[notin]

3 minutes ago, RedneckRedSoxFan said:

Vinny Capra is also swinging. Isn't he a 3B?

https://www.milb.com/worcester/stats/?playerPool=ALL

Yeah, he's a 3B. Looks like the hitters on Woo Sox so far this year are:

- SS Tsung-Che Cheng: AB - 30, H - 11, HR - 3, AVG - .367, OPS 1.346
- 1B  Mickey Gasper:      AB - 35, H - 14, HR - 3, AVG - .400, OPS 1.257
- SS Nick Sogard:           AB - 40, H - 11, HR - 3, AVG - .275, OPS 1.017
- 3B Vinny Capra:           AB - 31, H - 11, HR - 2, AVG - .290, OPS 1.089
- RF Kristian Campbell  AB - 45, H - 12, HR - 1, AVG - .267, OPS 0.775

We need a Polar-to-Fenway conversion formula….

[Randy Red Sox]

On 4/7/2026 at 7:43 AM, mvp 78 said:

I'm not going to tea leaf reading on moon's posts anymore. He'll just have to be more clear in the future. 

They aren't "out of it," but they are sleep walking through the beginning of the season. We haven't been able to see any good baseball out of them yet, so it's hard to believe in them right now. All the criticisms from the offseason seem to hold true. Worse, some of the high profile acquisitions haven't panned out yet. 

that is probably because they stayed away from almost all the additions they were said to be in on.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm afraid mvp had it right about this 2026 team.  Breslow built a team to try to win every game 3-2.  We've already played 4 3-2 games, 1 W and 3 Ls.  

[Randy Red Sox]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Be prepared for posters to scramble to hit Caps Lock before tying replies to such blasphemy after 12 whole games of It's Still Too Early To Panic (I bet if this was posted by a new forum member, guys like moonslav, MVP and notin would be hammering their keyboards right now).

Personally, I have no problem with any suggestions by fans who pay for tickets to Fenway or cable/internet fees for NESN and streaming services. Slow starts suck and when new acquisitions are part of the problem, it's even worse. 

We're not that dumb that we can't see immediately that changes have to be made. Because even though the Red Sox -- with the worst record in baseball -- are only 2 games out of a wild card spot, there are 14 other AL teams ahead of them vying for those 6 postseason berths.

Craig Breslow, who still hasn't completed his roster with all his offseason goals, can actually still make impact moves for Big League BATS if he can find another trade partner in panic mode. Who else has as many top pitching prospects to dangle?????

why didn't we simply SPEND in the offseason to get that power bat? Why do we need to give up young top pitching talent to get it when we have had to wait so long to get some?