A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

MLBTR's top 10 FA for next season:

Skubal

Peralta

Bichette

Chisholm

Trevor Rogers

M King

Varsho

Imai

Arozarena

Susuki

Others: Woodruff, Imanaga, Gausman, Bednar, G Torres, B Lowe, T Ward, Pivetta, Singer, Bubic, Bieber, Grisham, Mize...

[mvp 78]

Are we sure Bo is going to opt out? The MLBPA contract issues may depress salaries. Could be good to wait another year before opting out. 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are we sure Bo is going to opt out? The MLBPA contract issues may depress salaries. Could be good to wait another year before opting out. 

Does he have more than one opt out?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does he have more than one opt out?

After each season.

[moonslav59]

This Friday, we will see a once in a lifetime occurrence: an Early - May game in the middle of April!

Pitching match-up: Early vs May

[notin]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Are we sure Bo is going to opt out? The MLBPA contract issues may depress salaries. Could be good to wait another year before opting out. 

I said that about Bregman last year.   I suppose the CBA timing is the only factor…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boston may need to focus on All-Star batters who will be free agents in 2028 and trade for them next offseason before their contracts expire. 

Mid-market clubs that expect to lose such good ballplayers to free agency should be willing to make a deal for pitching prospects.

Wait -- which one are we again?

[moonslav59]

Even when we surprise and make a signing, it's no longer David Price level big.

Our luck with the second tier FAs is about as bad as it can be, and now Suarez is looking questionable.

Suarez

Yoshida

Story

(The last second tier good signing was JD.)

We've made some bold trades, and many have worked out well. The last one was Crochet.

If we ever hit paydirt on a FA signing, maybe we can go somewhere.

 

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Our luck with the second tier FAs is about as bad as it can be, and now Suarez is looking questionable.

 

The lack of patience in the modern world is something else. A guy with a good track record is now looking questionable after two starts and a disjointed Spring? Crazy. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

The lack of patience in the modern world is something else. A guy with a good track record is now looking questionable after two starts and a disjointed Spring? Crazy. 

I still think Suarez will turn it around, but he seems more questionable now, than 2 weeks ago.

[Hitch]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I still think Suarez will turn it around, but he seems more questionable now, than 2 weeks ago.

If we get to the position of questioning players ever few weeks, this game will turn us crazy. Let's see where he is after 6 or 7 starts. 

My only ever concern with pitchers like him is if the ABS system makes it harder for them to nibble on the lines. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

If we get to the position of questioning players ever few weeks, this game will turn us crazy. Let's see where he is after 6 or 7 starts. 

My only ever concern with pitchers like him is if the ABS system makes it harder for them to nibble on the lines. 

Agreed.

I was on a rant about how our second tier FA signings, like Story & Yoshida have been big letdowns. It's been over 8 years since we've struck gold on a major FA signing.

Suarez should not be added to the list, despite two bad starts.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I still think Suarez will turn it around, but he seems more questionable now, than 2 weeks ago.

He seems more questionable than before he had ever thrown a Regular Season pitch? Interesting. 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

I was on a rant about how our second tier FA signings, like Story & Yoshida have been big letdowns. It's been over 8 years since we've struck gold on a major FA signing.

Suarez should not be added to the list, despite two bad starts.

The question at the time, and still is was Ranger the right pitcher to go long on?

[mvp 78]

For some dumb reason, the Sox have increased his cutter useage to 27.8% (most thrown pitch).

Cutter last season: 

319 AVG

604 SLG

It probably is his worst pitch and they are making him throw it the most! 

He's been pitching poorly, but his expected stats are better than the results. He should come around. Just stop throwing the cutter so much.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

The question at the time, and still is was Ranger the right pitcher to go long on?

That's true for just about every FA pitcher.

To me, the contract number and years seemed about what should have been expected.

It was obviously a fall-back from Breggie, but I think the Breggie contract was more "suspect" than Suarez's.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/6/2026 at 1:29 AM, iortiz said:

These two alone have cost us at the very least 3 games. 

If those two cost us 3 games, then our adjusted record would be 7-5, or a projected 94.5 wins.  I'm okay with that.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He seems more questionable than before he had ever thrown a Regular Season pitch? Interesting. 

He has looked terrible in a very SSS, but yes. He is more questionable now, than he was before the season began. Some of us looked at his record over the last 2-3 years and had high expectations.

I have concerns about every player, even Crochet & Anthony, and those concerns can rise or fall slightly based on recent performance and production- or lack of it.

Lately, you have been Mr. Short Sample Size, so I find your point a bit puzzling.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports on an ex-Sox player...

The Pirates sent utility infielder Enmanuel Valdez outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, per the MLB.com transaction log. He evidently cleared waivers after being designated for assignment when the Bucs called up Konnor Griffin last week.

Also reported...

Red Sox manager Alex Cora informed reporters today that right-hander Johan Oviedo has been diagnosed with a flexor strain. He has avoided surgery but will be shut down from throwing for six weeks. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the details of the situation.

[JoeBrady]

On 4/8/2026 at 7:54 AM, Maxbialystock said:

He was unprepared from day one. 

I'm curious how one determines when players are ready and when they are not.  My general rule is that, on any date on the calendar, 50% of the players are playing worse than they should, and 50% are playing better than they should (to varying degrees).

IRT Story, he was heinous last May, with a .432 OPS and a ridiculous 35/4 K/W.  He had two stretches of 62 PAs with a .292 OPS, followed close behind with a stretch of 55 PAs with a .357.  So how do we know whether or not he is in one of his slumps, or if he is not ready?

[JoeBrady]

On 4/7/2026 at 1:16 PM, Old Red said:

And applauded by many on here.

Of course.  This is what every team in BB does.  You develop a farm, and then you play your prospects.  And we only have one rookie SP.  There is no alternative.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

For some dumb reason, the Sox have increased his cutter useage to 27.8% (most thrown pitch).

Cutter last season: 

319 AVG

604 SLG

It probably is his worst pitch and they are making him throw it the most! 

He's been pitching poorly, but his expected stats are better than the results. He should come around. Just stop throwing the cutter so much.

He should be pitching to induce grounders since hes such a good fielder.  Im not sure if the cutter is the right pitch to make primary when he has a heavy drop sinker.

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Are we sure Bo is going to opt out? The MLBPA contract issues may depress salaries. Could be good to wait another year before opting out. 

Bo has been awful.  I would suggest that it is too early in the season to assess Bo's stats, but the 'early' thing seems banned from this discussion.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Our luck with the second tier FAs is about as bad as it can be, and now Suarez is looking questionable.

How many months, weeks, days ago that the discussion was about Gray?

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm curious how one determines when players are ready and when they are not.  My general rule is that, on any date on the calendar, 50% of the players are playing worse than they should, and 50% are playing better than they should (to varying degrees).

IRT Story, he was heinous last May, with a .432 OPS and a ridiculous 35/4 K/W.  He had two stretches of 62 PAs with a .292 OPS, followed close behind with a stretch of 55 PAs with a .357.  So how do we know whether or not he is in one of his slumps, or if he is not ready?

If one person says that someone has a pattern of starting the year in a slump and someone else says that the same player doesnt usually appear to be ready to start the year, I would submit those 2 are agreeing, not arguing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It was obviously a fall-back from Breggie, but I think the Breggie contract was more "suspect" than Suarez's.

But as we've seen so far in this historically bad beginning, what price does a franchise put on chemistry?

Leaders may emerge but it says a lot about Breslow's roster construction when a 21-year old has to be the spokesman every night about why the team sucks.

Maybe the Sox will warm to Contreras' fire and rally around him. We know Story is well-liked, but he's more of a lead-by-example guy. And there is no other position player who's been around long enough or fluent enough to handle the press.

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But as we've seen so far in this historically bad beginning, what price does a franchise put on chemistry?

Leaders may emerge but it says a lot about Breslow's roster construction when a 21-year old has to be the spokesman every night about why the team sucks.

Maybe the Sox will warm to Contreras' fire and rally around him. We know Story is well-liked, but he's more of a lead-by-example guy. And there is no other position player who's been around long enough or fluent enough to handle the press.

This is my main concern with the team. I said around the time of Bregy's signing - I don't like the contract he is going to get, but at this point we have to swallow it. 

We could really do with his presence in the clubhouse right now, and in the next year or two.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Bo has been awful.  I would suggest that it is too early in the season to assess Bo's stats, but the 'early' thing seems banned from this discussion.

I look at variables.  For example , there was a year when career .260 hitting Christian Guzman suddenly became a .300 hitter.  And I was skeptical that it was anything more than a hot-streak in April and even into May.  Then I changed my mind and realized the elevated production was the new baseline.  

Why did I change my opinion from just a hot streak to new normal?  Well, you may think its because he did it long enough.  Its one thing to bat .300 for 2 weeks, and something else to do it for 6 weeks.  So you may think the reason I changed my mind was because the sample size expanded.  But in actuality, it was because I learned he had gotten lasex eye surgery in the offseason.

The reason why Id be nervous about Bo is because of the variable change.  New league, new park.  Hes not the only guy to struggle in that pitcher's park.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

The question at the time, and still is was Ranger the right pitcher to go long on?

He is #19 if fWAR over the previous 4 years.  I don't see anything to suggest he wouldn't be a #2 SP.  I'm open to hearing the 'buts', but I don't see any issues.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, Hitch said:

This is my main concern with the team. I said around the time of Bregy's signing - I don't like the contract he is going to get, but at this point we have to swallow it. 

We could really do with his presence in the clubhouse right now, and in the next year or two.

He was basically a player-coach, and not just the on-field stuff. Cora talked about Bregman like he was his bench coach.

AB also showed the young guys how to be professionals, and they really appreciated his gestures like buying rookies new suits.