A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

New league, new park.  Hes not the only guy to struggle in that pitcher's park.

All legitimate reasons a guy might struggle.  And to summarize, it's too early to start writing off players.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But as we've seen so far in this historically bad beginning, what price does a franchise put on chemistry?

Leaders may emerge but it says a lot about Breslow's roster construction when a 21-year old has to be the spokesman every night about why the team sucks.

Maybe the Sox will warm to Contreras' fire and rally around him. We know Story is well-liked, but he's more of a lead-by-example guy. And there is no other position player who's been around long enough or fluent enough to handle the press.

I don't disagree.

I wanted Breggie back, and I think he did more to help other players on the 2025 team than he was even given credit for, and he was given a lot of credit.

I still think a 30 year old Suarez is less of a risk than a 32 year old Bregman, who has been on a 3-4 year steady decline on offense, except for half of 2025.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

He is #19 if fWAR over the previous 4 years.  I don't see anything to suggest he wouldn't be a #2 SP.  I'm open to hearing the 'buts', but I don't see any issues.

And Gray is 7th in fWAR over the same time, but of course his age raises many concerns about going forward.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And Gray is 7th in fWAR over the same time, but of course his age raises many concerns about going forward.

Gray is realistically only going to be here for one season. He'll slow down at some point, just need him to get through '26.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree.

I wanted Breggie back, and I think he did more to help other players on the 2025 team than he was even given credit for, and he was given a lot of credit.

I still think a 30 year old Suarez is less of a risk than a 32 year old Bregman, who has been on a 3-4 year steady decline on offense, except for half of 2025.

Not arguing with your last line, but the point that can never be quantified is what Breslow pivoted away from...

... except maybe in the final standings or Boston's future postseason record.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have 5 batters doing okay or better and 8 not doing so well:

(some really small sample sizes here)

1.128 Wong (13 PA)

1.110 Abreu (49)

.875 Masa (24)

.859 Willson (53)

.790 Rafaela (34)

_______________

.656 Roman (52)

.598 Mayer (33)

_______________

.550 Duran (39) 

.508 Monasterio (13)

.490 Narvaez (28)

.391 Story (55 leads team)

.391 Durbin

.258 IKF (12)

_______________

Team splits:

.657 v R and .697 v L

.642 Away and .692 Home

.640 RISP and .644 Men on Base

.601 Late & Close and .567 High Leverage

.546 1st slot

.414 2nd slot

.834 3rd

.583 4th

1.121 5th

.323 6th

.739 7th

.710 8th

.783 9th

Our 7-8-9 battera are doing better than our 1-2-4-6 batters.

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Gray is realistically only going to be here for one season. He'll slow down at some point, just need him to get through '26.

Yup, and he seems like a better choice than Buehler was, last year.

Same cost, except for the players traded away for Gray.

[moonslav59]

Sox are in a 3 way tie for the second worst record in the AL, but two team we are tied with or ahead of are also "contenders" for a playoff slot:

4-8 BOS, DET (and CWS)

4-9 SEA

We are 1.5 GM the 6th best team in the AL.

2 GB from BAL and MIN slotted 4th and 5th.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and he seems like a better choice than Buehler was, last year.

Same cost, except for the players traded away for Gray.

Fitts, Clarke and Galle

If the Sox are really competing the year, the deal makes sense. Fitts is a back of the rotation guy at best and didn't take to the org's dev program. Clarke was injured most of last season, but popped in prospect lists. He's even more injured now so maybe they got the most value any team could ever get out of him. Galle? Who cares? 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox are in a 3 way tie for the second worst record in the AL, but two team we are tied with or ahead of are also "contenders" for a playoff slot:

4-8 BOS, DET (and CWS)

4-9 SEA

We are 1.5 GM the 6th best team in the AL.

2 GB from BAL and MIN slotted 4th and 5th.

Most people were very excited about SEA's offseason too... 🤔

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fitts, Clarke and Galle

If the Sox are really competing the year, the deal makes sense. Fitts is a back of the rotation guy at best and didn't take to the org's dev program. Clarke was injured most of last season, but popped in prospect lists. He's even more injured now so maybe they got the most value any team could ever get out of him. Galle? Who cares? 

Well said.

The one thing I wonder about is that with the Suarez signing, I wonder, if we could have traded Fitts, Clarke, Galle plus some guys from the Oviedo and Durbin trade and gotten a better infielder.

[Hitch]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox are in a 3 way tie for the second worst record in the AL, but two team we are tied with or ahead of are also "contenders" for a playoff slot:

4-8 BOS, DET (and CWS)

4-9 SEA

We are 1.5 GM the 6th best team in the AL.

2 GB from BAL and MIN slotted 4th and 5th.

That the Tigers and Mariners have that record shows there's no point getting over excited this early into a season.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That the Tigers and Mariners have that record shows there's no point getting over excited this early into a season.

Yes, and even if we were 5-6 GB the last playoff slot with 9 teams ahead of us, it's way too early to panic.

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well said.

The one thing I wonder about is that with the Suarez signing, I wonder, if we could have traded Fitts, Clarke, Galle plus some guys from the Oviedo and Durbin trade and gotten a better infielder.

Probably! 

[notin]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well said.

The one thing I wonder about is that with the Suarez signing, I wonder, if we could have traded Fitts, Clarke, Galle plus some guys from the Oviedo and Durbin trade and gotten a better infielder.

As much as I was unexcited by Durbin’s acquisition, let’s at least give him some time to let us know who all those better infielders are.

Don’t forget about a week before they traded for Durbin, they signed IKF, and there was an uproar over that acquisition as many thought he was brought in to start…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

That the Tigers and Mariners have that record shows there's no point getting over excited this early into a season.

Right now only 3 teams in the AL are over .500, and only two teams in the NL are under .500.

Obviously it’s not going to finish that way…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

As much as I was in excited by Durbin’s acquisition, let’s at least give him some time to let us know who all those better infielders are.

Don’t forget about a week before they traded for Durbin, they signed IKF, and there was an uproar over that acquisition as many thought he was brought in to start…

I liked the Durbin trade and still think it will be a plus upon final grading.

I'd have been fine with Durbin, no IKF and a better infielder added, too.

Maybe we'd have ended up platooning Durbin and mayer until an injury happened, of Story's time came up.

[moonslav59]

Day Off today

FRI- at STL (Early)

SAT- at STL (Suarez)

SUN- at STL (Bello)

MON- at MIN (Crochet)

TUE- at MIN (Gray)

WED- at MIN (Early)

THU- OFF

FRI>SUN- DET (Suarez-Bello-Crochet)

[notin]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I liked the Durbin trade and still think it will be a plus upon final grading.

I'd have been fine with Durbin, no IKF and a better infielder added, too.

Maybe we'd have ended up platooning Durbin and mayer until an injury happened, of Story's time came up.

There’s an article on the front page and numerous posts disparaging to Sox bench.  But after watching the bulk of the Sox bench start postseason games, I’m glad to have MLB starting caliber players on it, and these 1 for 8 starts don’t discourage me.  IKF in particular seems unpopular, but he’s spent nearly his entire career as a starter, and done so on some pretty good teams, notably the 99-win 2022 Yankees team.  I’d much rather have IKF and Yoshida ready to start games over Sogard and Eaton…

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Right now only 3 teams in the AL are over .500, and only two teams in the NL are under .500.

Obviously it’s not going to finish that way…

Yup. Things will settle and we have a hard start including the next month. If we continue to right the ship we'll be in good shape.

[Hitch]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s an article on the front page and numerous posts disparaging to Sox bench.  But after watching the bulk of the Sox bench start postseason games, I’m glad to have MLB starting caliber players on it, and these 1 for 8 starts don’t discourage me.  IKF in particular seems unpopular, but he’s spent nearly his entire career as a starter, and done so on some pretty good teams, notably the 99-win 2022 Yankees team.  I’d much rather have IKF and Yoshida ready to start games over Sogard and Eaton…

Same. Quite happy with IFK as a back up. In an ideal world Durbin would be our super utility guy, but I'm also confident he'll be very decent for us as a starter.

 

 

[Hitch]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Day Off today

FRI- at STL (Early)

SAT- at STL (Suarez)

SUN- at STL (Bello)

MON- at MIN (Crochet)

TUE- at MIN (Gray)

WED- at MIN (Early)

THU- OFF

FRI>SUN- DET (Suarez-Bello-Crochet)

I might be misremembering but last year it felt like we didn't take advantage of poor teams early on. It would be great if we don't repeat that this year.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

There’s an article on the front page and numerous posts disparaging to Sox bench.  But after watching the bulk of the Sox bench start postseason games, I’m glad to have MLB starting caliber players on it, and these 1 for 8 starts don’t discourage me.  IKF in particular seems unpopular, but he’s spent nearly his entire career as a starter, and done so on some pretty good teams, notably the 99-win 2022 Yankees team.  I’d much rather have IKF and Yoshida ready to start games over Sogard and Eaton…

I like our bench, and much of our bench, especially SP'ers carried us, last season.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

And Gray is 7th in fWAR over the same time, but of course his age raises many concerns about going forward.

IMHO, age should be considered in context with length of your contract,  If you have only one year, and you're healthy, then the risk premium is much lower.  But wearing down could be a consideration.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMHO, age should be considered in context with length of your contract,  If you have only one year, and you're healthy, then the risk premium is much lower.  But wearing down could be a consideration.

Agreed, and so far Gray has aged well. He's actually been better post prime.

ERA/FIP

3.51/3.17 Age 32-36

3.78/3.77 Age 27-31

3.42/3,61 Age 23-26

(3.76 minors)

[Behindenemylines]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have 5 batters doing okay or better and 8 not doing so well:

(some really small sample sizes here)

1.128 Wong (13 PA)

1.110 Abreu (49)

.875 Masa (24)

.859 Willson (53)

.790 Rafaela (34)

_______________

.656 Roman (52)

.598 Mayer (33)

_______________

.550 Duran (39) 

.508 Monasterio (13)

.490 Narvaez (28)

.391 Story (55 leads team)

.391 Durbin

.258 IKF (12)

_______________

Team splits:

.657 v R and .697 v L

.642 Away and .692 Home

.640 RISP and .644 Men on Base

.601 Late & Close and .567 High Leverage

.546 1st slot

.414 2nd slot

.834 3rd

.583 4th

1.121 5th

.323 6th

.739 7th

.710 8th

.783 9th

Our 7-8-9 battera are doing better than our 1-2-4-6 batters.

 

The poor start has more to do with poor starting pitching and defense then the Sox offence. Grant it, they still lack power, but they need more out of starting pitchers and catch the ball. The team was built on strong pitching and defense. 

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, notin said:

As much as I was in excited by Durbin’s acquisition, let’s at least give him some time to let us know who all those better infielders are.

Don’t forget about a week before they traded for Durbin, they signed IKF, and there was an uproar over that acquisition as many thought he was brought in to start…

FWIW, Durbin's OPS over the past games is .708.  Projecting those three games to 600 ABs, he have 75 runs scored and 150 RBIs.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

Yup. Things will settle and we have a hard start including the next month. If we continue to right the ship we'll be in good shape.

Schedules are not even at this point, which is a huge factor.  The Red Sox have played Cincy, San Diego, Houston and Milwaukee, all playoff teams from last year (except Houston, who narrowly missed).  The point here isnt that the Six have an excuse for being 4-8, but rather that it’s hard to compare them as a 4-8 team even against other 4-8 teams.  I mean, Toronto is 5-7 against the A’s, White Sox, Rockies and Dodgers.  Does that make them a better team than Boston, or a worse team?

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I like our bench, and much of our bench, especially SP'ers carried us, last season.

I mean, getting Romy back only helps..

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

The poor start has more to do with poor starting pitching and defense then the Sox offence. Grant it, they still lack power, but they need more out of starting pitchers and catch the ball. The team was built on strong pitching and defense. 

IMHO, there is always a building component to a rotation.  It's difficult to get all 5 on board at the same time, but with just 4 guys consistently contributing, any team can do some damage.  Right now. we have maybe 2.5 SPs in the zone.  I'd like to get one more decent start from Early, and then get Suarez straightened out.  Bello I have worries about, but we can replace one struggling pitcher.