A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

But the playoff format has expanded multiple times and very likely some of those 2-8 teams that missed under older formats might have qualified under newer ones…

I didn't write Speier's article!!!!!!! Don't yell at me!!!!!!

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story is not the right guy. He's been out of the lineup for most of his tenure. Coulombe? A $1M reliever??? Sandoval hasn't pitched 1 inning! 

Con Man skipped the media a few nights except for last night when he had his own fish to fry. Seems like Anthony has turned out to be one of the spokesmen lately good, or bad.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I didn't write Speier's article!!!!!!! Don't yell at me!!!!!!

The Red Sox have got to take baby steps like win the next game, and then win a few more, and then get to 500 before they start talking playoffs, which seems a long way off at the present time. Playoffs? Did someone say playoffs?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I didn't write Speier's article!!!!!!! Don't yell at me!!!!!!

Yelling…

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Ah 3.5 your favorite number today. 3.5 in itself is not that big a number especially with  150 games left, but having to climb over every other team in the league makes it a harder situation to do.🤔

I'm not predicting, projecting or even suggesting we will make the playoffs. 

I merely pointed out we are 3.5 games behind with 152 to go. Somehow, your twisted brain reads that and infers 3.5 is my favorite number.

I won't wait for a "yes" or a "no." Those two words might be too big for you to contemplate their meanings.

My answer is "no." We are not out of it, but I do agree that we need to see some changes for us to come back. Of course, it's harder to pass 9 teams than 1 or 2, but they all have 152 games to go, too.

Some other teams projected to make the playoffs by many:

4-7 SEA

4-6 DET

4-6 TOR

How's this for a prediction?

The Sox will pass the 6-5 Angels, this year. Agreed?

(Cue "crickets" or some diversionary tangent reply.)

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not predicting, projecting or even suggesting we will make the playoffs. 

I merely pointed out we are 3.5 games behind with 152 to go. Somehow, your twisted brain reads that and infers 3.5 is my favorite number.

I won't wait for a "yes" or a "no." Those two words might be too big for you to contemplate their meanings.

My answer is "no." We are not out of it, but I do agree that we need to see some changes for us to come back. Of course, it's harder to pass 9 teams than 1 or 2, but they all have 152 games to go, too.

Some other teams projected to make the playoffs by many:

4-7 SEA

4-6 DET

4-6 TOR

How's this for a prediction?

The Sox will pass the 6-5 Angels, this year. Agreed?

(Cue "crickets" or some diversionary tangent reply.)

Always trying to polish something that polish doesn’t stick to.🤮👋

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Always trying to polish something that polish doesn’t stick to.🤮👋

Making sense is difficult for you, I see.

[moonslav59]

Early splits: (6+ PAs)

v R

1.300 Wong

1.213 Abreu

.753 Contreras

.694 Anthony

.682 Yoshida

.606 Duran

.551 Rafaela

.500 Monasterio

.494 Mayer

.485 Narvaez

.440 Story

.422 Durbin

v L

1.300 Yoshida

1.214 Contreras

1.111 Abreu

.889 Anthony

.522 Duran

.000 Story & Durbin

It's way too soon to make definitive judgments, but some of these guys have been trending one way or the other for a while.

 

[illinoisredsox]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/04/06/sports/red-sox-poor-season-start/

Why link a paywalled article?  Gift it if you can (some papers allow x per month) or at least summarize it.

[illinoisredsox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Making sense is difficult for you, I see.

 

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Always trying to polish something that polish doesn’t stick to.🤮👋

New season. 

Same old Red Sox,

Same Moon and Old Red.

[illinoisredsox]

4 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

What I want to know is how many teams in major league history have started the regular season 2-8 and made it into the playoffs? I can't think of any but maybe there are a couple of outliers?

There's been at least 1, and ironically it was a Boston team.

The 1914 Braves started the season 2-9, 3-16 and 4-18.  They finished the year 94-59, 10 1/2 games ahead of the Giants and swept the Philadelphia Athletics in the World Series.

I'm not expecting history to repeat itself.

[moonslav59]

Abreu is still 5th in MLB OPS.

Some winter suggestions are off to nice starts, too.

1.183 O'Hearn

1.109 Donovan

.954 Josh Bell

.905 B Lowe

,861 Schwarber

.855 Neto

Others- not so nice...

.632 Bregman

,623 Polanco

.603 Bohm

.603 KMarte

.591 ESuarez

.550 Alonso

.507 Arenado

.466 Bichette

.454 Stott

.277 Naylor

.236 Ozuna

 

[oldtimer]

It is time for a hard ass manager.  Billy Martin, where are you when we need some sparks? If a player doesn't perform, he sits and watches another player give it a try. If he yo-yos enough times, he either makes a  move forward or looks for new employment.  No excuses. Cora is too soft and placid. 

[Hitch]

What a weird start to the season.  We could easily have won the Cinci and Padres series. And despite this horrific opening, are only two behind the Oriels and one behind the Jays. 

We're nowhere near as bad as this start suggests and if it had happened in mid season it would have hurt, but not as much as it does now. We also have had a hard start to the season schedule wise, but that's no excuse, we've been poor. 

I'm with Notin in that I have never called for a manager to be sacked, but Cora is on seriously dicey ground. Why do we always look so underprepared coming into a season? Yes we had a lot of players at the WBC, but this ins't new and has to be down to the coaching staff. It's ridiculous that our fundamentals are so utterly abject. At this point I don't know what Cora and his staff brings to the team. 

We really need to win tonight, and hopefully it fires something and we go into Cardinals and Twins and get back on the horse. Because it is tough again after that. 

[Maxbialystock]

20 hours ago, notin said:

So we’re improved over last year.  The glass is half full!  And filling rapidly.

We won’t discuss what it’s filling up with…

I'm smiling. 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

Why link a paywalled article?  Gift it if you can (some papers allow x per month) or at least summarize it.

I summarized it in the prior post.

Per Speier, 187 teams have gone 2-8 to start the season in the WS era. Only 12 have gone to the playoffs. 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

What a weird start to the season.  We could easily have won the Cinci and Padres series. And despite this horrific opening, are only two behind the Oriels and one behind the Jays. 

We're nowhere near as bad as this start suggests and if it had happened in mid season it would have hurt, but not as much as it does now. We also have had a hard start to the season schedule wise, but that's no excuse, we've been poor. 

I'm with Notin in that I have never called for a manager to be sacked, but Cora is on seriously dicey ground. Why do we always look so underprepared coming into a season? Yes we had a lot of players at the WBC, but this ins't new and has to be down to the coaching staff. It's ridiculous that our fundamentals are so utterly abject. At this point I don't know what Cora and his staff brings to the team. 

We really need to win tonight, and hopefully it fires something and we go into Cardinals and Twins and get back on the horse. Because it is tough again after that. 

I don;'t think Story was in the WBC. At 33 he should know how to use ST to prepare.  He was unprepared from day one.  That double last night was huge, however.  

Anthony is also a shocker but that could be WBC.  

Gotta like Contreras and Abreu.  

Story and Anthony are both in the ignominious top 25 in K's. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I don;'t think Story was in the WBC. At 33 he should know how to use ST to prepare.  He was unprepared from day one.  That double last night was huge, however.  

Anthony is also a shocker but that could be WBC.  

Gotta like Contreras and Abreu.  

Story and Anthony are both in the ignominious top 25 in K's. 

K%

Story 35.3 (26.9 last year)

Roman 34.0 (27.7 last year)

Marcelo 33.3 (30.3 last year)

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

K%

Story 35.3 (26.9 last year)

Roman 34.0 (27.7 last year)

Marcelo 33.3 (30.3 last year)

Some scary numbers.

But hey, just 11 Ks, last night! LOL

[moonslav59]

3 Games Behind

151 games to go

[illinoisredsox]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

I don;'t think Story was in the WBC. At 33 he should know how to use ST to prepare.  He was unprepared from day one.  That double last night was huge, however.  

Anthony is also a shocker but that could be WBC.  

Gotta like Contreras and Abreu.  

Story and Anthony are both in the ignominious top 25 in K's. 

Looking at Story’s splits on Baseball Reference, he has always been a slow starter.  His BA, OPS+ are much worse in April than any other month over his 11 year career.  Some guys are just slow starters and he appears to be one of them.  Not much you can do about it.  I’m more concerned that defensively he’s slipping.  His throws to first appear weaker than last year.  Maybe flip flop him and Mayer, having TS play second?

I think Anthony is in the adjustment phase.  He played what, 70 or so games last year?  Time enough for the league to get a book on him and now he has to figure out how to turn the page.  He will.  

[Maxbialystock]

11 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

Looking at Story’s splits on Baseball Reference, he has always been a slow starter.  His BA, OPS+ are much worse in April than any other month over his 11 year career.  Some guys are just slow starters and he appears to be one of them.  Not much you can do about it.  I’m more concerned that defensively he’s slipping.  His throws to first appear weaker than last year.  Maybe flip flop him and Mayer, having TS play second?

I think Anthony is in the adjustment phase.  He played what, 70 or so games last year?  Time enough for the league to get a book on him and now he has to figure out how to turn the page.  He will.  

All good comments.  Agree Mayer should play SS and Story 2b, also that Anthony will likely "turn the page."  Meanwhile, however, it's painful.   

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

K%

Story 35.3 (26.9 last year)

Roman 34.0 (27.7 last year)

Marcelo 33.3 (30.3 last year)

So what?  I'm an over-reactor and love being one.  

[moonslav59]

It's great to see Max back. He's right on Story's slow starts:

BA/OPS by month

.236/.747 April/March

.244/.782 May

.282/.817 June

.265/.855 July (The SLG% kicks in)

.284/.855 August (his peak month & highest OBP by far)

.272/.839 Sept/Oct

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

So what?  I'm an over-reactor and love being one.  

I wasn't tearing down your post at all. Just showing how poorly they've performed so far. Also, there's legitimate concern about Mayer. 

[mvp 78]

Patrick Sandoval is starting for WOO today. 

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wasn't tearing down your post at all. Just showing how poorly they've performed so far. Also, there's legitimate concern about Mayer. 

Mayer is still pretty suspect with the bat.

[drewski6]

OPS and K% are different.  Most OPS will be lower in April /May/September/October vs June, July, August due to weather/wind/humidity.  Ball flies significantly more when its hot and dry.  

Some guys start hot, and thats often because fresh/healthy but when that happens its despite the fact that the weather conditions are better for batters in the summer months.

So these OPS trends are nothing more than things Id expect to see, and I feel the K% is a better metric here to determine the degree of any slumps beyond what can be attributed to weather/uncontrollable variables.

[mvp 78]

Story's career k% by month:

 

[moonslav59]

Pirates extend Konnor Griffin to 9 years at $140M. (+$10M incentives.)