A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

For one year of Burnes, I do not deal Mayer.

 

Especially since Burnes has been public about his disappointment with the results on his arbitration hearings and apparently feels very underpaid and unappreciated. This might be a big part of the reason Baltimore has not yet extended him...

 

I don't either. Even with an extension, I'm not sure.

 

I would not trade Cespedes or Bleis, alone, either.

[notin]

I don't either. Even with an extension, I'm not sure.

 

I would not trade Cespedes or Bleis, alone, either.

 

I'm not sure 18yo Cespedes has that much appeal to a team that would need a SS in 2025, if not sooner. And I'm not sure Bleis has that much appeal to a team that has 4 MLB outfielders 25 and under (Mitchell, Wiemer, Chourio and Frelick) and two more of their top 10 prospects are outfielders in A ball...

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure 18yo Cespedes has that much appeal to a team that would need a SS in 2025, if not sooner. And I'm not sure Bleis has that much appeal to a team that has 4 MLB outfielders 25 and under (Mitchell, Wiemer, Chourio and Frelick) and two more of their top 10 prospects are outfielders in A ball...

 

Agreed, but he has great appeal, to me.

[moonslav59]

MLB Leaders in wRC+ (299 players with 20+ PAs, or about 10 per team)

1. O'Neill 276

2. Betts 244

3. Steer 229

4. Trout 222

 

11. Turner 198

 

21. McGuire 182

 

114. Duran 122

 

142 Devers 107

 

171. Casas 93

200. Yoshida 75

213 Rafaela 68

219 Story 66 (out for year)

293 EValdez -22 (7th worst in MLB)

 

Wong is at 92 in 16 PAs.

Reyes is at 18 in 17 PAs.

Abreu +2 in 18 PAs.

 

[moonslav59]

fWAR Pitching

2.7 BOS

2.2 PIT & KCR

2.1 PHI

2.0 CLE

 

Pitchers (10+ IP)

0.8 Bieber (out for season)

0.7 Wheeler & Glasnow

0.6 Houck, Burnes, Gallen & Crochet

0.5 Crawford & 10 others, including Montas

0.4 Pivetta & 14 others, including Wacha

0.3 has 25 pitchers, including Stroman, Severino, Sale and Seth Lugo

 

5+ IP

T4 Houck (0.6)

T9 Crawford (0.5)

T19 Pivetta & Whitlock (0.4)

T38 Slaten & Martin(0.3)

T112 Bello & Wink (0.1)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Talking heads hammering Bloom again today for poor spending -- injury-prone Story (elbow as damaged goods) and one-tool Yoshida.

 

I'll never defend Bloom because of what he represents in Sox history, and also for $10 million-dollar rotation duds like Kluber and Richards. But when the past six years are assessed in totality, and the wastes of money include Sale (TJ waiting to happen) and Giolito (bad pitcher for two years, now with an excuse) -- isn't it time to look past the three CBOs, and hold other longtime front office employees a little more accountable?

 

Many were there the whole time. Due diligence on acquisitions must be shared by several of the many assistant VPs. Word was the Sox had coveted Yoshida for years. As for Story, Red Sox scouts must have been monitoring his throwing arm, while more than one doctor had to be inspecting his medicals... And was lowballing Bogaerts in Spring Training '22 really all Bloom, who said after the season that signing Xander was his priority and was described by reporters of being in shock when he lost Bogie (and maybe not just because SD gave him $100 million more)?

 

With all that incompetency, it is understandable that ownership has finally just cut off the current CBO from filling obvious holes. But they're not off the hook, either, and it's probably their own damn fault from the start, for refusing to pay Mookie what he is worth, and then inevitably paying one-dimensional Raffy instead...

[vegasbob]

Talking heads hammering Bloom again today for poor spending -- injury-prone Story (elbow as damaged goods) and one-tool Yoshida.

 

I'll never defend Bloom because of what he represents in Sox history, and also for $10 million-dollar rotation duds like Kluber and Richards. But when the past six years are assessed in totality, and the wastes of money include Sale (TJ waiting to happen) and Giolito (bad pitcher for two years, now with an excuse) -- isn't it time to look past the three CBOs, and hold other longtime front office employees a little more accountable?

 

Many were there the whole time. Due diligence on acquisitions must be shared by several of the many assistant VPs. Word was the Sox had coveted Yoshida for years. As for Story, Red Sox scouts must have been monitoring his throwing arm, while more than one doctor had to be inspecting his medicals... And was lowballing Bogaerts in Spring Training '22 really all Bloom, who said after the season that signing Xander was his priority and was described by reporters of being in shock when he lost Bogie (and maybe not just because SD gave him $100 million more)?

 

With all that incompetency, it is understandable that ownership has finally just cut off the current CBO from filling obvious holes. But they're not off the hook, either, and it's probably their own damn fault from the start, for refusing to pay Mookie what he is worth, and then inevitably paying one-dimensional Raffy instead...

 

Excellent points on all counts. The CBO, like the field manager, is the lightning rod for criticism, but there is a whole group in place behind him that should get evaluated. Including MLB level players who can't catch, hit or baserun with at least average production. The medical staff has ben suspect for several years .

 

Bogaerts was an great contributor for several seasons and if he would have signed for another 3 years, Boston could have paid him a premium. But certainly not a 6-10 year deal or the ridiculous contract wasted by SD Padres. Xander can come back for the 20 year anniversaries of the 2013/2018 teams championships and get plenty of deserved applause.

[mvp 78]

But is he better than Hamilton?

 

2021 -22 DRS

2022 -4 DRS

 

Now that he's even older, there IS a chance he's worse than Hamilton at playing SS.

[Old Red]

2021 -22 DRS

2022 -4 DRS

 

Now that he's even older, there IS a chance he's worse than Hamilton at playing SS.

 

Can he make the routine plays? That’s what should matter most. Imagine if Raffy could just make the routine plays.

[Bellhorn04]

2021 -22 DRS

2022 -4 DRS

 

Now that he's even older, there IS a chance he's worse than Hamilton at playing SS.

 

FanGraphs has him at 4.2 RAR on defense for 2022 in 118 games. About average I would guess.

 

Defensive ratings are confusing as hell. They are worthy of old school guys laughing at them.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs has him at 4.2 RAR on defense for 2022 in 118 games. About average I would guess.

 

Defensive ratings are confusing as hell. They are worthy of old school guys laughing at them.

 

They are great. You can pick and chose which metric works to fit your argument!

[mvp 78]

Can he make the routine plays? That’s what should matter most. Imagine if Raffy could just make the routine plays.

 

Remembering the 2013 ALCS, no!

[jad]

Excellent points on all counts. The CBO, like the field manager, is the lightning rod for criticism, but there is a whole group in place behind him that should get evaluated. Including MLB level players who can't catch, hit or baserun with at least average production. The medical staff has ben suspect for several years .

 

Bogaerts was an great contributor for several seasons and if he would have signed for another 3 years, Boston could have paid him a premium. But certainly not a 6-10 year deal or the ridiculous contract wasted by SD Padres. Xander can come back for the 20 year anniversaries of the 2013/2018 teams championships and get plenty of deserved applause.

 

So how's that deal with his replacement working out?

[Maxbialystock]

Can he make the routine plays? That’s what should matter most. Imagine if Raffy could just make the routine plays.

 

 

His lifetime OPS is .852, which is why he's the highest paid player on the team.

 

Right now the Sox team OPS is .695 and ranked 16th in MLB. We need Raffy's bat a lot more than his glove, and right now he has just 3 rbi's (7th on the Sox), 15 total bases (3d), and an OPS of .726 (4th).

 

To date Raffy has 1 error, as do 7 other Sox lineup players. Rafaela has 2 errors. So that's 9 with 1 or more errors.

 

That leaves just 3 regular lineup players with no errors: O'Neill, Wong, and McGuire.

 

I'm ignoring Dalbec because he's back in Worcester and Gonzalez because he's played just 1 game.

[moonslav59]

His lifetime OPS is .852, which is why he's the highest paid player on the team.

 

Right now the Sox team OPS is .695 and ranked 16th in MLB. We need Raffy's bat a lot more than his glove, and right now he has just 3 rbi's (7th on the Sox), 15 total bases (3d), and an OPS of .726 (4th).

 

To date Raffy has 1 error, as do 7 other Sox lineup players. Rafaela has 2 errors. So that's 9 with 1 or more errors.

 

That leaves just 3 regular lineup players with no errors: O'Neill, Wong, and McGuire.

 

I'm ignoring Dalbec because he's back in Worcester and Gonzalez because he's played just 1 game.

 

I can’t wait for Devers to be able to bat with 2 hands and arms!

 

He has not been very good, so far, but he has still been better, one-handed than half the team using 2 hands!

[Old Red]

His lifetime OPS is .852, which is why he's the highest paid player on the team.

 

Right now the Sox team OPS is .695 and ranked 16th in MLB. We need Raffy's bat a lot more than his glove, and right now he has just 3 rbi's (7th on the Sox), 15 total bases (3d), and an OPS of .726 (4th).

 

To date Raffy has 1 error, as do 7 other Sox lineup players. Rafaela has 2 errors. So that's 9 with 1 or more errors.

 

That leaves just 3 regular lineup players with no errors: O'Neill, Wong, and McGuire.

 

I'm ignoring Dalbec because he's back in Worcester and Gonzalez because he's played just 1 game.

Everyone knows why Raffy is getting $300M, and the fact that he has been charged with ONLY 1 error certainly does not mean he has made all the plays at 3B that he should have. I think you’ll admit he’s no Frank Malzone with the glove.

[mvp 78]

His lifetime OPS is .852, which is why he's the highest paid player on the team.

 

Right now the Sox team OPS is .695 and ranked 16th in MLB. We need Raffy's bat a lot more than his glove, and right now he has just 3 rbi's (7th on the Sox), 15 total bases (3d), and an OPS of .726 (4th).

 

To date Raffy has 1 error, as do 7 other Sox lineup players. Rafaela has 2 errors. So that's 9 with 1 or more errors.

 

That leaves just 3 regular lineup players with no errors: O'Neill, Wong, and McGuire.

 

I'm ignoring Dalbec because he's back in Worcester and Gonzalez because he's played just 1 game.

 

Ortiz was a 932 lifetime OPS. I don't think he was ever the highest earner on his team and was frequently a year to year guy.

 

To move Devers to DH a year into his new deal makes no sense IMO. If you pair him with a decent SS (like Story) he's passable. If you pair him with a below average SS (like Reyes/Hamilton) it's a trainwreck.

[mvp 78]

I can’t wait for Devers to be able to bat with 2 hands and arms!

 

He has not been very good, so far, but he has still been better, one-handed than half the team using 2 hands!

 

If he's that injured, he should be sitting out.

[mvp 78]

Everyone knows why Raffy is getting $300M, and the fact that he has been charged with ONLY 1 error certainly does not mean he has made all the plays at 3B that he should have. I think you’ll admit he’s no Frank Malzone with the glove.

 

He surely is no Frank MalzonE. MalzonE averaged 23 errors per year his first 5 full years. Devers averaged 20 errors per year his first 5 full years.

[Old Red]

He surely is no Frank MalzonE. MalzonE averaged 23 errors per year his first 5 full years. Devers averaged 20 errors per year his first 5 full years.

 

Malzone was the 3B that I can remember when I first started watching the Red Sox. I don’t remember that much about him, and was just throwing an old name out there to Max who’s been watching the Sox longer than I have.

[mvp 78]

Malzone was the 3B that I can remember when I first started watching the Red Sox. I don’t remember that much about him, and was just throwing an old name out there to Max who’s been watching the Sox longer than I have.

 

I would have just said "Devers is no Mike Lowell." Lowell was probably the best 3b the Sox have had in the modern era, ignoring Adrian Beltre.

[redsoxrules]

I can’t wait for Devers to be able to bat with 2 hands and arms!

 

He has not been very good, so far, but he has still been better, one-handed than half the team using 2 hands!

 

Stop with this nonsense. Everytime he's not producing its because of the injury excuse

[redsoxrules]

His lifetime OPS is .852, which is why he's the highest paid player on the team.

 

Right now the Sox team OPS is .695 and ranked 16th in MLB. We need Raffy's bat a lot more than his glove, and right now he has just 3 rbi's (7th on the Sox), 15 total bases (3d), and an OPS of .726 (4th).

 

To date Raffy has 1 error, as do 7 other Sox lineup players. Rafaela has 2 errors. So that's 9 with 1 or more errors.

 

That leaves just 3 regular lineup players with no errors: O'Neill, Wong, and McGuire.

 

I'm ignoring Dalbec because he's back in Worcester and Gonzalez because he's played just 1 game.

 

His bat alone is not worth his contract. He's a poor OBP guy with bad defense. Hes not even close to Ortiz level.

 

I'm sorry but when you're a s***** defender you need to hit more than he has making 300 million.

 

Those type of contracts are typically given to players in MVP talks. Something Devers has never been close to sniffing

[Elktonnick]

Frank Malzone won the gold glove when they awarded only one per position. He was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the the late 50s.

[Old Red]

I would have just said "Devers is no Mike Lowell." Lowell was probably the best 3b the Sox have had in the modern era, ignoring Adrian Beltre.

 

Oh, I have said that before, and even brought up Boggs name too who didn’t start out as a good 3B, but got better. I was just bringing up an old Sox name like Malzone like I did the other day asking Max if Piersall was the best CF he had ever seen with the Red Sox.

[Old Red]

Frank Malzone won the gold glove when they awarded only one per position. He was the best defensive 3rd baseman in the the late 50s.

 

As a fact Malzone was the last player to win a Gold Glove before Brooks went on a 16 year run.

[Elktonnick]

As a fact Malzone was the last player to win a Gold Glove before Brooks went on a 16 year run.

The Malzone example is evidence the the number of errors is not the sole crierion for whether a player is a good defensive player. I believe the year Malzone won the gold glove he led the league in errors but more importantly in putouts and assists.

[moonslav59]

Stop with this nonsense. Everytime he's not producing its because of the injury excuse

 

Really? I never heard that excise used, before.

[moonslav59]

His bat alone is not worth his contract. He's a poor OBP guy with bad defense. Hes not even close to Ortiz level.

 

I'm sorry but when you're a s***** defender you need to hit more than he has making 300 million.

 

Those type of contracts are typically given to players in MVP talks. Something Devers has never been close to sniffing

 

I doubt a single poster or Sox fans would say they preferred extending Devers to Betts.

 

It's a shame it turned out this way. One could drop the "e" on shame and make an even better point.

[Nick]

Going in starting pitching was our concern.

 

To date the group has acquitted themselves well.

 

We are not making the playoffs. For me we need to see our three budding stars later this year.

 

At some point we will move away from Yoshida at DH.

Edited April 11, 2024 by Nick