A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

His bat alone is not worth his contract. He's a poor OBP guy with bad defense. Hes not even close to Ortiz level.

 

I'm sorry but when you're a s***** defender you need to hit more than he has making 300 million.

 

Those type of contracts are typically given to players in MVP talks. Something Devers has never been close to sniffing

 

Well, Devers has received MVP votes in each of the last 4 seasons.

 

But the initial contract Bloom offered him, reportedly similar to the contract extension Matt Olson got from the Braves (8 yrs $168mill), seemed to make more sense.

 

Of course as Devers valued himself much higher, the only options were pay him more or lose him (via trade or expiring contract). If the Sox did either one, they’re probably an even worse team…

Edited April 11, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Well, Devers has received MVP votes in each of the last 4 seasons.

 

But the initial contract Bloom offered him was reportedly similar to the contract extension Matt Olson got from the Braves (8 yrs $168mill) seemed to make more sense.

 

Of course as Devers valued himself much higher, the only options were pay him more or lose him (via trade or expiring contract). If the Sox did either one, they’re probably an even worse team…

 

We can be pretty sure, they would not have spent his $313M elsewhere.

[notin]

We can be pretty sure, they would not have spent his $313M elsewhere.

 

Maybe on a new European office building for FSG? Possible Thames River view?

[moonslav59]

Going in starting pitching was our concern.

 

To date the group has acquitted themselves well.

 

We are not making the playoffs. For me we need to see our three budding stars later this year.

 

At some point we will move away from Yoshida at DH.

 

I doubt we see them, this year. September call-ups are limited, now.

 

It is looking more and more like Yoshida was a complete failure, but he will be given a long leash in a punt season and at that pay.

 

Maybe someday, we see...

 

C: Teel & Wong

1B: Devers/Casas

DH: Casas/Devers

2B: Grissom

SS: Story

3B: Mayer

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

 

We still need pitching, but with all these pre-arb and arb contracts, even a stingy JH should allow us to build a winner.

 

For 5 years, the question has been "How Soon Is Now?"

 

When you say it's gonna happen now

When exactly do you mean?

See I've already waited too long

And all my hope is gone

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Devers has received MVP votes in each of the last 4 seasons.

 

But the initial contract Bloom offered him, reportedly similar to the contract extension Matt Olson got from the Braves (8 yrs $168mill), seemed to make more sense.

 

Of course as Devers valued himself much higher, the only options were pay him more or lose him (via trade or expiring contract). If the Sox did either one, they’re probably an even worse team…

 

redsoxrules's main point has been that they gave the truckload of cash to the wrong guy.

[Bellhorn04]

We can be pretty sure, they would not have spent his $313M elsewhere.

 

Can't be sure of much with this team, since 2019.

[notin]

redsoxrules's main point has been that they gave the truckload of cash to the wrong guy.

 

They definitely should have given it to Betts. But once that situation fell apart, should they have traded Devers as well?

[Bellhorn04]

They definitely should have given it to Betts. But once that situation fell apart, should they have traded Devers as well?

 

Hard to say. I like Devers and he's a productive hitter. But his defense has not come around, and that's a big problem. Looks like it's gonna be a big overpay over the life of the contract.

 

Losing Betts was a catastrophic error and hard to recover from.

[notin]

Hard to say. I like Devers and he's a productive hitter. But his defense has not come around, and that's a big problem. Looks like it's gonna be a big overpay over the life of the contract.

 

Losing Betts was a catastrophic error and hard to recover from.

 

Probably also worth noting, comparing Devers to Ortiz (which RSR did) is unfair and impatient. From ages 24-26, Devers’ OPS+ was 133. At the same ages, Ortiz’ was 109

[Bellhorn04]

Probably also worth noting, comparing Devers to Ortiz (which RSR did) is unfair and impatient. From ages 24-26, Devers’ OPS+ was 133. At the same ages, Ortiz’ was 109

 

It is, however, fair to look at Devers as a DH, unfortunately.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt we see them, this year. September call-ups are limited, now.

 

It is looking more and more like Yoshida was a complete failure, but he will be given a long leash in a punt season and at that pay.

 

Maybe someday, we see...

 

C: Teel & Wong

1B: Devers/Casas

DH: Casas/Devers

2B: Grissom

SS: Story

3B: Mayer

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony

 

We still need pitching, but with all these pre-arb and arb contracts, even a stingy JH should allow us to build a winner.

 

For 5 years, the question has been "How Soon Is Now?"

 

When you say it's gonna happen now

When exactly do you mean?

See I've already waited too long

And all my hope is gone

 

Just wondering if posters on Orioles forums ever stress about whether a prospect is ready, when the Birds promote new star players at a young age... and not just #1 overall draft picks who make the majors when they're 20 like Jackson Holliday.

 

Gunnar Henderson was a second-rounder who made it at age 21.

 

Colton Cowser, the guy who beat the Red Sox the past two days, was the next pick drafted after Marcelo Mayer. Cowser played college ball and is older, but only hit .115 and struck out 33% of the time when he was promoted last year -- somehow, he survived that trauma, and it doesn't appear Baltimore ruined his career by calling him up.

[Bellhorn04]

Rafaela getting PHed for by Hamilton was not a great thing to see either.

[Bellhorn04]

Just wondering if posters on Orioles forums ever stress about whether a prospect is ready, when the Birds promote new star players at a young age... and not just #1 overall draft picks who make the majors when they're 20 like Jackson Holliday.

 

Gunnar Henderson was a second-rounder who made it at age 21.

 

Colton Cowser, the guy who beat the Red Sox the past two days, was the next pick drafted after Marcelo Mayer. Cowser played college ball and is older, but only hit .115 and struck out 33% of the time when he was promoted last year -- somehow, he survived that trauma, and it doesn't appear Baltimore ruined his career by calling him up.

 

Don't disagree, but the O's haven't done much over the last few decades to earn a role as a model franchise.

 

New ownership could change all that though.

[Bellhorn04]

Pablo Reyes hitting 5th, 3rd and 6th in the order in his last 3 starts is another dreadfully ominous sign of the quality of our roster.

[notin]

Just wondering if posters on Orioles forums ever stress about whether a prospect is ready, when the Birds promote new star players at a young age... and not just #1 overall draft picks who make the majors when they're 20 like Jackson Holliday.

 

Gunnar Henderson was a second-rounder who made it at age 21.

 

Colton Cowser, the guy who beat the Red Sox the past two days, was the next pick drafted after Marcelo Mayer. Cowser played college ball and is older, but only hit .115 and struck out 33% of the time when he was promoted last year -- somehow, he survived that trauma, and it doesn't appear Baltimore ruined his career by calling him up.

 

Marcelo Mayer has played 4 games since last July. Think he should be called up?

[notin]

Pablo Reyes hitting 5th, 3rd and 6th in the order in his last 3 starts is another dreadfully ominous sign of the quality of our roster.

 

Seems like that’s more of a Cora thing, unless you’re saying the Sox don’t have better options than Reyes…

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like that’s more of a Cora thing, unless you’re saying the Sox don’t have better options than Reyes…

 

I'm not saying it's a Cora thing. It highlights a pronounced paucity of RH hitting. We have Tyler O'Neil as long as he stays healthy, and someday, God willing, we'll have Vaughn Grissom.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't disagree, but the O's haven't done much over the last few decades to earn a role as a model franchise.

 

New ownership could change all that though.

 

Old ownership in Boston still wants to sell tickets. And if the Red Sox are as bad as most predicted -- and we all saw the past two days -- it has to be 50-50 whether the front office is compelled to bring up its version of the Orioles' future superstars.

 

It's not just Breslow, publicly counting on the Big Three (now in Portland), but Bloom's "You know what's coming..." and virtually anyone involved in roster construction.

 

Bad teams going nowhere often call up top prospects to generate hope for the fanbase and to give young players early big league experience in relatively stress-free competition. Not only can the youngsters acclimate to environments that get intense if/when the team returns to contention -- but their talents can help boost a club into contention.

 

What does the front office have to lose -- except service time, which they've now shown they're intent to buy out with extensions for the future core. You don't have to go to Yale to know that most fans aren't going to stay tuned to watch platoons of Hamilton/Romy and Pablo/Valdez... not, once the weather gets nice.

[Bellhorn04]

Old ownership in Boston still wants to sell tickets. And if the Red Sox are as bad as most predicted -- and we all saw the past two days -- it has to be 50-50 whether the front office is compelled to bring up its version of the Orioles' future superstars.

 

It's not just Breslow, publicly counting on the Big Three (now in Portland), but Bloom's "You know what's coming..." and virtually anyone involved in roster construction.

 

Bad teams going nowhere often call up top prospects to generate hope for the fanbase and to give young players early big league experience in relatively stress-free competition. Not only can the youngsters acclimate to environments that get intense if/when the team returns to contention -- but their talents can help boost a club into contention.

 

What does the front office have to lose -- except service time, which they've now shown they're intent to buy out with extensions for the future core. You don't have to go to Yale to know that most fans aren't going to stay tuned to watch platoons of Hamilton/Romy and Pablo/Valdez... not, once the weather gets nice.

 

The 2024 team has a lot of kids playing as it is.

 

I don't think they'll be shy about moving ATM through the ranks, though.

[notin]

I'm not saying it's a Cora thing. It highlights a pronounced paucity of RH hitting. We have Tyler O'Neil as long as he stays healthy, and someday, God willing, we'll have Vaughn Grissom.

 

But it is a Cora thing.

 

He batted Reyes second against Reid Detmers in an April game. Reyes’ career numbers are only marginally better vs LHP and at this point in the season, that advantage is likely for 2 plate appearances, 3 max.

 

If Cora is going to over-emphasize a platoon for a 30 point OPS advantage in 2-3 PA, he really should be questioned…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Marcelo Mayer has played 4 games since last July. Think he should be called up?

 

I think they're going to call them all up, and not just for a shot of expresso in September. There are going to be a lot of job openings in Boston by the trade deadline.

 

We know they're not going to spend -- Brez already said they're going "internal" -- and if the season gets as ugly as if could, remotes will focus on dog shows before they'll watch the Dead Sox this summer. I also don't think Cora will make it to August.

[Bellhorn04]

But it is a Cora thing.

 

He batted Reyes second against Reid Detmers in an April game. Reyes’ career numbers are only marginally better vs LHP and at this point in the season, that advantage is likely for 2 plate appearances, 3 max.

 

If Cora is going to over-emphasize a platoon for a 30 point OPS advantage in 2-3 PA, he really should be questioned…

 

OK, it's a weak roster thing AND a Cora thing. We can both enjoy our half of the blame pie.

 

What do you think of our RH hitting in general? It looks pretty dreadful to me. Rafaela was a hope but that hope is not looking good so far.

Edited April 11, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Just wondering if posters on Orioles forums ever stress about whether a prospect is ready, when the Birds promote new star players at a young age... and not just #1 overall draft picks who make the majors when they're 20 like Jackson Holliday.

 

Gunnar Henderson was a second-rounder who made it at age 21.

 

Colton Cowser, the guy who beat the Red Sox the past two days, was the next pick drafted after Marcelo Mayer. Cowser played college ball and is older, but only hit .115 and struck out 33% of the time when he was promoted last year -- somehow, he survived that trauma, and it doesn't appear Baltimore ruined his career by calling him up.

 

I think this is one area for fans to think they have a better idea of when a prospect is "ready" or not. Then, there is the whole years of service during prime vs pre-prime aspect to the choice.

 

I've always just trusted they team knows better than I do, on this. I'm sure they get things wrong, at times.

 

On Teel, Anthony and Mayer, I don't think any are ML ready, now. I don't see any need to rush them and start their "clocks." Sure, I'd love to watch them, right now, and maybe they'd hit the ground running, if we called them up, soon, but I'd rather have them an extra year at ages 28-30 than at 21 to 24, and no, we can't just expect we can pay them through prime. We should know better, by now.

[moonslav59]

The 2024 team has a lot of kids playing as it is.

 

Exactly!

 

Recent grads:

2023: Casas, Grissom, Bernardino, Valdez, Murphy, Kelly

2022: Bello, Duran, Crawford, Wink, Wong

2021: Houck & Whitlock

 

Rafaela, Slaten, Abreu, DHam and others will graduate this year, most likely.

 

Plus, Devers is younger than Houck, Crawford, Whitlock and Wong!

 

We have a pretty solid base of young and controlled players on the 26, already. Lord knows, we still have holes- some very big, but add a few more from the big 3 and beyond, and that core should get even better.

[Old Red]

It is, however, fair to look at Devers as a DH, unfortunately.

 

Like I keep saying they are playing the cards they have dealt themselves. NOshida at the moment at DH, and Raffy at 3B, and I don’t see Cora moving Raffy anytime soon. At the moment both aren’t hitting much of anything either, so it makes things even worse. Both got off to slow starts last year, and both will hit sooner than later especially Raffy.

[Bellhorn04]

Yoshida looks awful in the early going. Pounding one ground ball after another to the right side.

 

I don't think he got the memo about launch angle being a thing...

[redsoxrules]

Probably also worth noting, comparing Devers to Ortiz (which RSR did) is unfair and impatient. From ages 24-26, Devers’ OPS+ was 133. At the same ages, Ortiz’ was 109

 

Devers has been around for a while now. What you have been seeing is what you're going to get. Ortiz hadn't really played much before he joined Boston.

 

Devers is not all of sudden going to become more than he has been. He will give you his 30HR per year with bad defense. And not so great OBP for a power hitter.

 

If he could take the approach he did in yesterday's game with 2 walks and apply this every game he would become like Ortiz but the problem is he is too swing happy for this.

[moonslav59]

I think they're going to call them all up, and not just for a shot of expresso in September. There are going to be a lot of job openings in Boston by the trade deadline.

 

We know they're not going to spend -- Brez already said they're going "internal" -- and if the season gets as ugly as if could, remotes will focus on dog shows before they'll watch the Dead Sox this summer. I also don't think Cora will make it to August.

 

I'm thinking maybe one gets a Sept call-up- 2 at most.

 

Instead, we'll see guys like Abreu and Rafaela playing FT (assume O'Neill traded.) We'll see McGuire traded and maybe Teel called up, but my guess is someone else gets a look-see- maybe even Hickey, who could DH some, if we squeeze Yoshida out. (Heineman?)

 

I think Romy, Valdez and DHam might get longer looks, assuming they haven't already shown they suck by the deadline. Maybe Meidroth and or Sogard gets a look.

 

No need to talk about great prospect pitchers knocking loudly on the door.

[Old Red]

Rafaela getting PHed for by Hamilton was not a great thing to see either.

 

Abreau hitting for anyone at the moment isn’t good either. Casas is starting to hit a little, but outside of Duran, and the Big O, and both C there hasn’t been a lot hitting.

[moonslav59]

Devers has been around for a while now. What you have been seeing is what you're going to get. Ortiz hadn't really played much before he joined Boston.

 

Devers is not all of sudden going to become more than he has been. He will give you his 30HR per year with bad defense. And not so great OBP for a power hitter.

 

If he could take the approach he did in yesterday's game with 2 walks and apply this every game he would become like Ortiz but the problem is he is too swing happy for this.

 

Devers certainly can still have a bust out year that blows 2019 or 2021 away. He's only 27.

 

I don't expect his defense to improve.