A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Duran Is The Man]

For the team's sake and Nick's, I certainly hope it is minor, but a diagnosis of pitching arm flexor strain is almost a certain indication of pending UCL problems.

 

Max says losing Pivetta is no big deal.

[Maxbialystock]

A lot more than MEH, and this most likely won’t be the last starter to go down.

 

Compared to last year's rotation, this year's rotation, with or without Pivetta, is vastly better. Heck, today Bello went 5.1 innings while giving up just 1 ER.

 

One more time. The Sox pitching is this team's strength--and why the Sox are 7-4.

 

And the lineup, both hitting and fielding, is killing us--just 2 stinking hits, but 3 more unearned runs. This is the 5th game out of 11 played in which the Sox lineup has scored 1 or 0 runs in the regulation 9 innings. In 11 games the defense has allowed 11 unearned runs.

[Old Red]

What about Cora’s Run Prevention Unit that he created this year? It doesn’t appear to be working out all that well at the moment.

[moonslav59]

Compared to last year's rotation, this year's rotation, with or without Pivetta, is vastly better. Heck, today Bello went 5.1 innings while giving up just 1 ER.

 

One more time. The Sox pitching is this team's strength--and why the Sox are 7-4.

 

And the lineup, both hitting and fielding, is killing us--just 2 stinking hits, but 3 more unearned runs. This is the 5th game out of 11 played in which the Sox lineup has scored 1 or 0 runs in the regulation 9 innings. In 11 games the defense has allowed 11 unearned runs.

 

You are assuming 11 games predict the future and checks all the boxes over the 2023 rotation that included all of this year's starters.

 

Bello, Crawford & Houck led the '23 rotation in starts. Pivetta & Whitlock were 6th and 7th in GS.

 

To me, it is fine saying our pitching has been our strength, this year, but that does mean it is, right now, or will be going forward, especially without our current #2 ERA starter (Pivetta at 0.82.)

[jgar658]

Is Iglesias available?

He cannot hit, but he is a vacuum cleaner in SS.

 

Trade Yoshida

 

Move Devers to DH. He will never be a good fielder.

 

Who is playing 3rd in triple A? Oh wait! Is that Dalbec?

[a700hitter]

Kirby is getting slapped around again— tonight in Toronto. 5 runs on 8 hits through 4 innings. He needs to face us more if he wants to go back to the All Star game.

[notin]

Is Iglesias available?

He cannot hit, but he is a vacuum cleaner in SS.

 

Trade Yoshida

 

Move Devers to DH. He will never be a good fielder.

 

Who is playing 3rd in triple A? Oh wait! Is that Dalbec?

 

Iglesias can’t hit? The man has a league-average 99 OPS+ over his last 3 seasons in MLB and currently has a .908 OPS for the Mets AAA team.

[notin]

What about Cora’s Run Prevention Unit that he created this year? It doesn’t appear to be working out all that well at the moment.

 

So… fire Cora?

[moonslav59]

Kirby is getting slapped around again— tonight in Toronto. 5 runs on 8 hits through 4 innings. He needs to face us more if he wants to go back to the All Star game.

 

I wish he was on the Sox.

[a700hitter]

I wish he was on the Sox.

Me too!

[mvp 78]

I wish he was on the Sox.

 

Would take him in a second.

[mvp 78]

I wish he was on the Sox.

 

AAA stats don't corelate to MLB very well. Iggy's defense has dropped off considerably per the metrics.

[Bellhorn04]

AAA stats don't corelate to MLB very well. Iggy's defense has dropped off considerably per the metrics.

 

It was decent in 2022 though, right? Seems odd he hasn't gotten an MLB job since then.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sucks seeing Burnes pitching for Baltimore, since he was the guy a lot of posters felt was a perfect target to pursue for the Red Sox' rotation, now and going forward.

 

And it also sucks that a division rival got an ace for only their #6 and #7 prospects -- not that the Sox were ever getting Corbin Burnes for Nick Yorke and Walkemin Gonzalez... just remember, the Orioles tanked for a few more years to secure all those top 10 draft picks.

 

Also re. the mighty third-place O's, interesting to note their offense is tied with Boston with a league-average .234 BA, with about the same Slug%, but below the Sox in OBP.

 

Here's the big difference: Baltimore has struckout an MLB-low 72 times, compared to 113 for Boston. And in 10 games so far, the Orioles have hit into ONE double play...

[moonslav59]

AAA stats don't corelate to MLB very well. Iggy's defense has dropped off considerably per the metrics.

 

That was Kirby.

 

I'm not for bringing in old vets who were great on D 2-3 years ago. The majors are loaded with no hit-good glove back-up SSs, at a low cost.

 

Mayer could probably hit as well as Simmons and Iggy, and is probably as good a defender, given their ages and lack of work at SS, recently.

[moonslav59]

Sucks seeing Burnes pitching for Baltimore, since he was the guy a lot of posters felt was a perfect target to pursue for the Red Sox' rotation, now and going forward.

 

And it also sucks that a division rival got an ace for only their #6 and #7 prospects -- not that the Sox were ever getting Corbin Burnes for Nick Yorke and Walkemin Gonzalez... just remember, the Orioles tanked for a few more years to secure all those top 10 draft picks.

 

Also re. the mighty third-place O's, interesting to note their offense is tied with Boston with a league-average .234 BA, with about the same Slug%, but below the Sox in OBP.

 

Here's the big difference: Baltimore has struckout an MLB-low 72 times, compared to 113 for Boston. And in 10 games so far, the Orioles have hit into ONE double play...

 

BAL had a better farm.

 

I would not have given up a top 5 and then a 6-9 prospect for 1 year of Burnes, especially since 2024 looks like a punt season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That was Kirby.

 

I'm not for bringing in old vets who were great on D 2-3 years ago. The majors are loaded with no hit-good glove back-up SSs, at a low cost.

 

Mayer could probably hit as well as Simmons and Iggy, and is probably as good a defender, given their ages and lack of work at SS, recently.

 

Marcelo Mayer? What are you suggesting -- ruin the rest of the life of a callow young man who plays a kid's game for money?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BAL had a better farm.

 

I would not have given up a top 5 and then a 6-9 prospect for 1 year of Burnes, especially since 2024 looks like a punt season.

 

I would, if I worked in the front office of the Red Sox during the first 15 years or so of John Henry's ownership... back then we could be sure if we traded for an ace, that the next immediate move would be to lock him up with a fair-market extension.

[notin]

Sucks seeing Burnes pitching for Baltimore, since he was the guy a lot of posters felt was a perfect target to pursue for the Red Sox' rotation, now and going forward.

 

And it also sucks that a division rival got an ace for only their #6 and #7 prospects -- not that the Sox were ever getting Corbin Burnes for Nick Yorke and Walkemin Gonzalez... just remember, the Orioles tanked for a few more years to secure all those top 10 draft picks.

 

Also re. the mighty third-place O's, interesting to note their offense is tied with Boston with a league-average .234 BA, with about the same Slug%, but below the Sox in OBP.

 

Here's the big difference: Baltimore has struckout an MLB-low 72 times, compared to 113 for Boston. And in 10 games so far, the Orioles have hit into ONE double play...

 

Do you really think all #6 and #7 prospects are equal? Or teams ask by prospect system ranking regardless of who it is?

 

Joey Ortiz entered the season as a top 100 prospect. DL Hall has been ranked multiple times on every list. A similar trade from the Sox would be more like Teel and Bleis. Except it’s possible the Brewers wanted a pitcher as well as an infielder to replace Willy Adames.

 

I don't think the Sox have those players to pay with for one year of Burnes…

[notin]

AAA stats don't corelate to MLB very well. Iggy's defense has dropped off considerably per the metrics.

 

But is he better than Hamilton?

[moonslav59]

I would, if I worked in the front office of the Red Sox during the first 15 years or so of John Henry's ownership... back then we could be sure if we traded for an ace, that the next immediate move would be to lock him up with a fair-market extension.

 

I was more than fine with that idea, but it's easier said than done.

[moonslav59]

But is he better than Hamilton?

 

I seriously doubt the projected fWAR for Iggy, Simmons and DHam?Reyes would be very far apart.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do you really think all #6 and #7 prospects are equal? Or teams ask by prospect system ranking regardless of who it is?

 

 

"not that the Sox were ever getting Corbin Burnes for Nick Yorke and Walkemin Gonzalez... just remember, the Orioles tanked for a few more years to secure all those top 10 draft picks"

[moonslav59]

"not that the Sox were ever getting Corbin Burnes for Nick Yorke and Walkemin Gonzalez... just remember, the Orioles tanked for a few more years to secure all those top 10 draft picks"

 

Our 5 and 6 guys are Rafaela and Cespedes. Would anyone have liked that trade?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Our 5 and 6 guys are Rafaela and Cespedes. Would anyone have liked that trade?

 

I think Milwaukee was demanding at least one pitching prospect in return for Burnes; most teams want pitching back when they have to deal impending free agent arms.

 

But alas, even Boston's top two pitchers in the system - Gonzalez and Perales - aren't rated with ceilings higher than mid-rotation or back-end bullpen.

 

Though most of us would take Burnes for that pair, and probably Cespedes, as well.

[moonslav59]

I think Milwaukee was demanding at least one pitching prospect in return for Burnes; most teams want pitching back when they have to deal impending free agent arms.

 

But alas, even Boston's top two pitchers in the system - Gonzalez and Perales - aren't rated with ceilings higher than mid-rotation or back-end bullpen.

 

Though most of us would take Burnes for that pair, and probably Cespedes, as well.

 

I would not give Cespeded, alone, for 1 year of Burnes. Burnes w extension, yes.

 

They might have demanded Crawford & Rafaela or Crawford and Yorke.

[notin]

"not that the Sox were ever getting Corbin Burnes for Nick Yorke and Walkemin Gonzalez... just remember, the Orioles tanked for a few more years to secure all those top 10 draft picks"

 

My bad. I misread and assumed there was some sarcasm in that statement...

[notin]

I think Milwaukee was demanding at least one pitching prospect in return for Burnes; most teams want pitching back when they have to deal impending free agent arms.

 

But alas, even Boston's top two pitchers in the system - Gonzalez and Perales - aren't rated with ceilings higher than mid-rotation or back-end bullpen.

 

Though most of us would take Burnes for that pair, and probably Cespedes, as well.

 

It all depends on what the Sox thought of the upcoming season. The prevailing feeling on this board (granted, not relevant to the Sox plans) was this was a tank season anyway. If the Sox figured this was a non-competitive year, which would align with their spending practices, the hope might be to take on Burnes and flip him for better prospects at the deadline. But that is not always so easy. The pitchers flipped at last year's deadline did not garner top flight prospects in most cases. It's possible the Sox might break even or garner worse prospects for Burnes, while simultaneously hurting their draft position due to the extra wins he would have gotten.

 

I would have loved to move on Burnes, but I am not sure what it would have taken. BTV gives equivalents as Teel and Bleis, but that doesn't mean Milwaukee wants them, especially given that they will need to replace Burnes and Adames by next season and they already have a glut of outfielders and a young catcher...

[moonslav59]

It all depends on what the Sox thought of the upcoming season. The prevailing feeling on this board (granted, not relevant to the Sox plans) was this was a tank season anyway. If the Sox figured this was a non-competitive year, which would align with their spending practices, the hope might be to take on Burnes and flip him for better prospects at the deadline. But that is not always so easy. The pitchers flipped at last year's deadline did not garner top flight prospects in most cases. It's possible the Sox might break even or garner worse prospects for Burnes, while simultaneously hurting their draft position due to the extra wins he would have gotten.

 

I would have loved to move on Burnes, but I am not sure what it would have taken. BTV gives equivalents as Teel and Bleis, but that doesn't mean Milwaukee wants them, especially given that they will need to replace Burnes and Adames by next season and they already have a glut of outfielders and a young catcher...

 

They might have wanted Mayer & Perales.

 

I doubt Rafaela, Wikelman and Romero/Perales (1) gets it done.

[notin]

They might have wanted Mayer & Perales.

 

I doubt Rafaela, Wikelman and Romero/Perales (1) gets it done.

 

For one year of Burnes, I do not deal Mayer.

 

Especially since Burnes has been public about his disappointment with the results on his arbitration hearings and apparently feels very underpaid and unappreciated. This might be a big part of the reason Baltimore has not yet extended him...