A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Unlucky? You get two more NN for that one.

 

It was explained. Not my fault you don’t know how BABIP works…

[Bellhorn04]

I was one of the few that was, too- back in 2019.

 

I'm talking about the last 2-3 years: did a single poster ever suggest we extend Sale further?

 

Most were counting the days until his contract expired, while hoping against hope, he;d regain his former glory days.

 

I was always hoping for the best with Sale, including going into this year, before we traded him. I thought maybe we finally had a chance to reap some benefit from the extension and that we could exercise the option for 2025.

 

But the Braves were there to pounce on our small market ways.

[moonslav59]

Nobody laughed at signing Lugo. Most people just look at his history and don't know if he'll hold up over the long haul with a starter's workload. Plus, 1.79 ERA and 3.56 xFIP. Expect some regression. He's 34 and signed a 3 year deal with no track record of starting.

 

"Laughed" was a euphemism.

 

I don't recall a single poster liking the idea. A few like Imanaga.

 

I'm not saying I will be proven correct. They both have a long way to go on their contracts, but there is more gushing over Sale's mini-sample size of 2024 than Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and Monty combined.

[moonslav59]

Mata has given up 3 runs in 4 innings in the FCL and Salem.

 

Callup Valdez and Kavadas both LHB platoon DHs?

 

I can't see us adding Mata to the 26, despite being out of options. When his rehab runs out, I think we trade him or try to sneak him through waivers.

[notin]

Mata has given up 3 runs in 4 innings in the FCL and Salem.

 

Callup Valdez and Kavadas both LHB platoon DHs?

 

Mata is a DFA/re-sign candidate. He’s barely pitched in the last 3 years, has no MLB experience, and no options left. He’s not s guy I see getting claimed…

[Old Red]

I was one of the few that was, too- back in 2019.

 

I'm talking about the last 2-3 years: did a single poster ever suggest we extend Sale further?

 

Most were counting the days until his contract expired, while hoping against hope, he;d regain his former glory days. Some were saying he should be our next closer. I don't recall anywhere near this much Sale love in several years.

 

Even when he put together a nice stretch of starts, last year, nobody I remember was saying they expected this for 2024.

Why do you keep going on about no one was advocating to extend Sale again when Bell brought up yesterday that the club had an option for 2025, so there was no need for an extension. The problem is Gus has pretty much sucked so far, and Sale has been healthy, and pitching great. It’s not really all that complicated to understand.

[Bellhorn04]

"Laughed" was a euphemism.

 

I don't recall a single poster liking the idea. A few like Imanaga.

 

I'm not saying I will be proven correct. They both have a long way to go on their contracts, but there is more gushing over Sale's mini-sample size of 2024 than Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and Monty combined.

 

Most of us were all in on signing 2 free agent starters, IIRC. The names were different because there were a lot available. I liked Gray and Montgomery. I wouldn't have minded Lugo. I was all for Imanaga. I wasn't being super picky.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying I will be proven correct. They both have a long way to go on their contracts, but there is more gushing over Sale's mini-sample size of 2024 than Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and Monty combined.

 

We should probably stop gushing over Houck and Crawford's "mini-sample sizes" too, I guess.

[Old Red]

Most of us were all in on signing 2 free agent starters, IIRC. The names were different because there were a lot available. I liked Gray and Montgomery. I wouldn't have minded Lugo. I was all for Imanaga. I wasn't being super picky.

 

And Brez jumped on Gio when no one else was calling him.

[Old Red]

We should probably stop gushing over Houck and Crawford's "mini-sample sizes" too, I guess.

 

Sale has also more than a proven record when healthy.

[mvp 78]

Even if he doesn't, he is likely to be about the same as Smith. If he's worse, then just go out an get the next Smith on the cheap.

 

And then you have Kavadas AND another Smith clogging up the 40 man? If Kavadas is added to the 40 man, he's the backup going forward no matter how bad he plays (a la Dalbec).

[mvp 78]

I was always hoping for the best with Sale, including going into this year, before we traded him. I thought maybe we finally had a chance to reap some benefit from the extension and that we could exercise the option for 2025.

 

But the Braves were there to pounce on our small market ways.

 

Midmarket.

[moonslav59]

I was always hoping for the best with Sale, including going into this year, before we traded him. I thought maybe we finally had a chance to reap some benefit from the extension and that we could exercise the option for 2025.

 

But the Braves were there to pounce on our small market ways.

 

I think we all had hopes for Sale, just like we did for the 5 previous seasons- one by one.

 

He had a real nice long stretch of starting in 2023, which showed he had not "lost it," and just needed to stay healthy.

 

Last 15 starts of 2023:

3.16 ERA/ 3.41 FIP (not vintage Sale, but good enough, for sure)

(Note: this 15 start run included missing a 5 week stretch)

He was at 3.92/3.96 in his 9 starts after returning from his injury in '23.

 

He has 9 straight starts, this year. That makes 18 straight, over 2 seasons. The last time he did that was....?

 

2019, when he had a 4.40 ERA (3.39 FIP)

 

I'm a huge Sale fan, and I hope he has a great finish to his career, except when facing us, but I was tired of hoping against hope.

2020

2021

2022

2023

 

He went 5 seasons dashing our hopes. I got fed up with it.

 

Of course, I wish we had this Sale, for this year, but this deal is so far from being completed. I'm pretty sure we would not have extended him. It looks like we might have taken the $20M option, if he completes this season, like this.

 

[mvp 78]

"Laughed" was a euphemism.

 

I don't recall a single poster liking the idea. A few like Imanaga.

 

I'm not saying I will be proven correct. They both have a long way to go on their contracts, but there is more gushing over Sale's mini-sample size of 2024 than Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and Monty combined.

 

I wonder why people are gushing over Chris Sale, a guy who has 7 AS appearances and closed out a WS for the hometown team?

[Old Red]

"Laughed" was a euphemism.

 

I don't recall a single poster liking the idea. A few like Imanaga.

 

I'm not saying I will be proven correct. They both have a long way to go on their contracts, but there is more gushing over Sale's mini-sample size of 2024 than Lugo, Imanaga, Gray and Monty combined.

 

Sale was here. The others wasn’t.🤭🙈

[mvp 78]

Most of us were all in on signing 2 free agent starters, IIRC. The names were different because there were a lot available. I liked Gray and Montgomery. I wouldn't have minded Lugo. I was all for Imanaga. I wasn't being super picky.

 

Imanaga was cheap enough to be a midrotation guy too. His contract didn't break the bank.

[moonslav59]

Most of us were all in on signing 2 free agent starters, IIRC. The names were different because there were a lot available. I liked Gray and Montgomery. I wouldn't have minded Lugo. I was all for Imanaga. I wasn't being super picky.

 

True. Most would have been happy with any 2 starters, but I didn't hear anyone specifically saying they wanted Lugo, and there was a long list of SP'ers suggested.

 

[moonslav59]

I wonder why people are gushing over Chris Sale, a guy who has 7 AS appearances and closed out a WS for the hometown team?

 

There was no gushing for 3-4 years, and now this.

[mvp 78]

We should probably stop gushing over Houck and Crawford's "mini-sample sizes" too, I guess.

 

A lot of very smart posters thought Crawford was underrated coming into this year and that he had a chance to breakout. Houck will probably just get injured at some point.

[mvp 78]

There was no gushing for 3-4 years, and now this.

 

Hard to gush over someone that's injured.

[Bellhorn04]

There was no gushing for 3-4 years, and now this.

 

Yeah, most sports fans are pretty predictable. They like performance and they hate injuries.

 

The Sox did not have very compelling reasons to make this trade, is the real point, IMHO. They had so little to lose by keeping Sale.

[Old Red]

There was no gushing for 3-4 years, and now this.

 

He’s healthy at the moment, and producing. Why is that so hard for you to comprehend? Wow! C’mon man have a little bit of a clue.

[Old Red]

Yeah, most sports fans are pretty predictable. They like performance and they hate injuries.

 

The Sox did not have to make this trade, is the real point, IMHO. They had so little to lose by keeping Sale.

I could have understood more if Atlanta had to pay the whole contract.

[mvp 78]

It's Chris Freakin' Sale!

[Bellhorn04]

It's Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

Last 6 games:

 

39 innings

50 K's

3 BB's

 

[mvp 78]

Last 6 games:

 

39 innings

50 K's

3 BB's

 

 

Imagine if he was still here pitching like this, every 5th day would be "well, why weren't you guys splooging on Chris Sale Day the last few years?!?!?!?!?"

[mvp 78]

I hope Chris Sale is healthy all season and wins the CY. He deserves it. He was great for the Sox and still checks in on his old teammates.

[moonslav59]

Hard to gush over someone that's injured.

 

Exactly, but how many were gushing over last years pretty decent season?

 

The guy is doing great, now, and he might keep it up. I hope he does.

 

I get the argument for keeping him. Our weakness was thought to be the rotation, and it was for over 4 years, before last winter. It made less sense, when we only signed one SP'er with what amounted to just a portion of the "money saved" in the trade.

 

As great as our rotation has done, this year, we still could have used Sale. (Bell's point about pen starts shows that.)

 

I understand, this is not just hindsight complaining, as many, if not most, disliked the trade when it happened. (I did too, at first, but then I grew to think it was a decent deal, especially if we had spent up to the line, like I had hoped we would do.)

 

Grissom's injury and then worse than piss-poor start has magnified the disparity between these two player current 2024 value. I get that.

 

My point is that all this gushing over Sale was not around for 3-5 years, and now it's like he was never a question mark and a negative impact on 4-5 season teams in a row.

 

[Bellhorn04]

My point is that all this gushing over Sale was not around for 3-5 years, and now it's like he was never a question mark and a negative impact on 4-5 season teams in a row.

 

No. No one is trying to re-write his injury history or saying it didn't hurt us. You're just making that up, frankly.

[mvp 78]

Exactly, but how many were gushing over last years pretty decent season?

 

The guy is doing great, now, and he might keep it up. I hope he does.

 

I get the argument for keeping him. Our weakness was thought to be the rotation, and it was for over 4 years, before last winter. It made less sense, when we only signed one SP'er with what amounted to just a portion of the "money saved" in the trade.

 

As great as our rotation has done, this year, we still could have used Sale. (Bell's point about pen starts shows that.)

 

I understand, this is not just hindsight complaining, as many, if not most, disliked the trade when it happened. (I did too, at first, but then I grew to think it was a decent deal, especially if we had spent up to the line, like I had hoped we would do.)

 

Grissom's injury and then worse than piss-poor start has magnified the disparity between these two player current 2024 value. I get that.

 

My point is that all this gushing over Sale was not around for 3-5 years, and now it's like he was never a question mark and a negative impact on 4-5 season teams in a row.

 

 

Last year, he has a pitching run value that was 52nd percentile. It's now 99th. He was fine last year, but not really Chris Freakin' Sale. We'd all be over the moon if we got vintage Sale one more time in Boston.

 

We weren't gushing the past few years because he was injured or struggling to come back. Most people realize there are still underlying concerns with Sale, you're just annoyed that not every pro-Sale post isn't littered with concerns about his health. We don't need to worry about his health anymore because he doesn't pitch for the Red Sox. If he's great, we can enjoy it from afar.

 

One bad contract doesn't sink a high budget team like what the Sox should be.