A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

No. No one is trying to re-write his injury history or saying it didn't hurt us. You're just making that up, frankly.

 

Making what up?

 

I said nobody was gushing over him for 4-5 years. Is that untrue?

 

I wasn't even implying anyone was re-writing history or forgetting his injury history.

 

I get why people are gushing and giddy over his 2024 start. He has been amazing, and even better than his stretch in 2023.

 

Who expected this?

[moonslav59]

Last year, he has a pitching run value that was 52nd percentile. It's now 99th. He was fine last year, but not really Chris Freakin' Sale. We'd all be over the moon if we got vintage Sale one more time in Boston.

 

We weren't gushing the past few years because he was injured or struggling to come back. Most people realize there are still underlying concerns with Sale, you're just annoyed that not every pro-Sale post isn't littered with concerns about his health. We don't need to worry about his health anymore because he doesn't pitch for the Red Sox. If he's great, we can enjoy it from afar.

 

One bad contract doesn't sink a high budget team like what the Sox should be.

 

Agree. Totally.

[notin]

A lot of very smart posters thought Crawford was underrated coming into this year and that he had a chance to breakout. Houck will probably just get injured at some point.

 

And I did, too...

[harmony]

How does Vaughn Grissom post a negative 0.7 fWAR (and a negative 23 wRC+) in only 13 games?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vaughn-grissom/26031/stats?position=2B/SS

 

Grissom should be an asset in the long run but those stats are mind-boggling.

[notin]

I hope Chris Sale is healthy all season and wins the CY. He deserves it. He was great for the Sox and still checks in on his old teammates.

 

He's probably the best pitcher in the last quarter century to not have a CYA, so it is arguably overdue. Right now, the three biggest obstacles between him and the Cy Young award are his own durability, Imanaga, and Ranger Suarez...

[mvp 78]

How does Vaughn Grissom post a negative 0.7 fWAR (and a negative 23 wRC+) in only 13 games?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vaughn-grissom/26031/stats?position=2B/SS

 

Grissom should be an asset in the long run but those stats are mind-boggling.

 

Having a 305 OPS in 53 PA's will do it.

[mvp 78]

He's probably the best pitcher in the last quarter century to not have a CYA, so it is arguably overdue. Right now, the three biggest obstacles between him and the Cy Young award are his own durability, Imanaga, and Ranger Suarez...

 

It's May so there's lots of baseball left to play. That would be the biggest obstacle IMO.

[notin]

It's May so there's lots of baseball left to play. That would be the biggest obstacle IMO.

 

As of right now, he is tied with Wheeler and Imanaga for the NL lead in fWAR, with Suarez and Tyler Glasnow 0.1 behind. Houck leads MLB with 2.2 fWAR. Crawford is third in the AL...

[mvp 78]

As of right now, he is tied with Wheeler and Imanaga for the NL lead in fWAR, with Suarez and Tyler Glasnow 0.1 behind. Houck leads MLB with 2.2 fWAR. Crawford is third in the AL...

 

I wonder if Imanaga cools off after teams see him the second time. Wheeler is running a career low BABIP right now, but he's having an amazing post age 30 run.

[notin]

I wonder if Imanaga cools off after teams see him the second time. Wheeler is running a career low BABIP right now, but he's having an amazing post age 30 run.

 

The one I think is clearly not keeping it going is Suarez, who has allowed 4 ER in his last 48 IP. That pace is historic.

 

The one thing in Imanaga's favor is his ungodly control. He does not put himself in trouble with walks...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I wonder if Imanaga cools off after teams see him the second time. Wheeler is running a career low BABIP right now, but he's having an amazing post age 30 run.

 

Imanaga also wondered that in an interview a few weeks ago on MLB TV.

 

Maybe that means he's already working on a contingency plan. Sorta like the Sox didn't when they didn't offer him enough when he signed with the Cubs.

 

Boston always seems to be in on pitchers they think would make good starters in the majors -- Eflin, Lugo last year; Imanaga, Hicks this year...

 

It must frustrate the R & D guys to be overruled by the payroll dept.; one office is all about the cutting edge of the industry, the other is all about cutting corners.

[Dipre]

A Cap'n Obvious comeback unworthy of a man of your considerable baseball acumen.

 

I'll bite. I've always been weary of Sale's mechanics, and with the velocity he's shown this season and his overall durability, I just don't see it lasting. I've been keeping a very close eye on the elbow injury epidemic, and Sale seems like a prime candidate to re-screw up his flexor tendon/ucl/elbow. We'll see.

[mvp 78]

Imanaga also wondered that in an interview a few weeks ago on MLB TV.

 

Maybe that means he's already working on a contingency plan. Sorta like the Sox didn't when they didn't offer him enough when he signed with the Cubs.

 

Boston always seems to be in on pitchers they think would make good starters in the majors -- Eflin, Lugo last year; Imanaga, Hicks this year...

 

It must frustrate the R & D guys to be overruled by the payroll dept.; one office is all about the cutting edge of the industry, the other is all about cutting corners.

 

Not sure if it's the "payroll department" or just their own internal player valuation where they assign a dollar value to each player and don't go over it an inch.

[Bellhorn04]

Making what up?

 

I said nobody was gushing over him for 4-5 years. Is that untrue?

 

I wasn't even implying anyone was re-writing history or forgetting his injury history.

 

You said: now it's like he was never a question mark and a negative impact on 4-5 season teams in a row.

 

That's making stuff up.

[Bellhorn04]

Who expected this?

 

Maybe the team that traded for him?

[notin]

Maybe the team that traded for him?

 

I bet the Braves are pleasantly surprised. If they expected him to start out this good, they probably don't ask the Sox to include so much cash...

[Bellhorn04]

I bet the Braves are pleasantly surprised. If they expected him to start out this good, they probably don't ask the Sox to include so much cash...

 

Why wouldn't they try to fleece us as much as possible?

[Old Red]

Making what up?

 

I said nobody was gushing over him for 4-5 years. Is that untrue?

 

I wasn't even implying anyone was re-writing history or forgetting his injury history.

 

I get why people are gushing and giddy over his 2024 start. He has been amazing, and even better than his stretch in 2023.

 

Who expected this?

 

Who expected this? Really? The team that traded for him, and then extended him, and got the Red Sox to pay $17M of his contract this year. That’s who!

[Hugh2]

I bet the Braves are pleasantly surprised. If they expected him to start out this good, they probably don't ask the Sox to include so much cash...

 

aren't they also only something like 4-5 million below the top threshold? that's where the really stiff penalties really kick in. That probably had a large influence on their decision.

[notin]

aren't they also only something like 4-5 million below the top threshold? that's where the really stiff penalties really kick in. That probably had a large influence on their decision.

 

Also possible. I don't know if they possess the same "damn the luxury tax - full throttle" mentality you see in Los Angeles and New York. But I do think they were in a better position to take the risk on Sale's health due to their pitching-heavy minor league system. At worst, Sale buys some time for their prospects if he can't stay on the field...

[Hugh2]

Also possible. I don't know if they possess the same "damn the luxury tax - full throttle" mentality you see in Los Angeles and New York. But I do think they were in a better position to take the risk on Sale's health due to their pitching-heavy minor league system. At worst, Sale buys some time for their prospects if he can't stay on the field...

 

Pure conjecture here.

 

But if Atlanta and Boston had some crystal ball on Sales performance to date I’d bet it would increase the player return and the money exchanged would be the same.

 

As it should be.

[mvp 78]

Pure conjecture here.

 

But if Atlanta and Boston had some crystal ball on Sales performance to date I’d bet it would increase the player return and the money exchanged would be the same.

 

As it should be.

 

I'm not sure it changes anything because it's only 1.5 months into the season.

[moonslav59]

aren't they also only something like 4-5 million below the top threshold? that's where the really stiff penalties really kick in. That probably had a large influence on their decision.

 

cots says they were about $18M over, last year and projected at $28.4M over, this year (a $9.5M tax)

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not sure it changes anything because it's only 1.5 months into the season.

 

Agree we don't really know about Grissom, who has played in just 13 of the Sox 48 games this season.

 

But we know a ton about Sale. He's 35 and this is his 14th MLB season. For the 2012-2018 seasons, his WAR's were 5.8, 6.9, 6.6, 3.3, 4.9, 6.0, 6.9, which are pretty impressive. Then came 5 lousy seasons (2019-2023) with WAR's of 2.3, 0 (recovery from TJ surgery), 1.0, 0.0 (bicycle fall), and 1.7 with the Sox.

 

And right now his WAR is 2.1, his ERA 2.22, and he leads the Atlanta rotation in IP with 56.2 with 5 quality starts and a 7-1 W-L record. He's added a 4th pitch, a cutter, to his usually effective repertoire of slider, fastball, and changeup.

 

I think the tommy john surgery extends his effectiveness for at least 2 more years after this year--if not more.

 

So, yes, I think the Braves got a terrific deal in this trade, especially with the Sox paying Sale's salary this year.

 

Interestingly, the Sox gave up Yoan Moncada to get Sale, and Moncada never quite lived up to his hype. 2 good years, 2019 and 2021, with WAR's of 4.6 and 4.0.

[Hugh2]

cots says they were about $18M over, last year and projected at $28.4M over, this year (a $9.5M tax)

 

Yes but there are multiple thresholds. SPotrac has them at $255 million which is just $2 million under the next threshold.

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure it changes anything because it's only 1.5 months into the season.

 

No, but it changes things up until May 20th. That's still more information than they had then, of a known ACE status. That would change the value.

 

Of course, no one has a crystal ball, and if they did they'd see Grissom sucking......or turning into a stud in the second half???

[Dipre]

Agree we don't really know about Grissom, who has played in just 13 of the Sox 48 games this season.

 

But we know a ton about Sale. He's 35 and this is his 14th MLB season. For the 2012-2018 seasons, his WAR's were 5.8, 6.9, 6.6, 3.3, 4.9, 6.0, 6.9, which are pretty impressive. Then came 5 lousy seasons (2019-2023) with WAR's of 2.3, 0 (recovery from TJ surgery), 1.0, 0.0 (bicycle fall), and 1.7 with the Sox.

 

And right now his WAR is 2.1, his ERA 2.22, and he leads the Atlanta rotation in IP with 56.2 with 5 quality starts and a 7-1 W-L record. He's added a 4th pitch, a cutter, to his usually effective repertoire of slider, fastball, and changeup.

 

I think the tommy john surgery extends his effectiveness for at least 2 more years after this year--if not more.

 

So, yes, I think the Braves got a terrific deal in this trade, especially with the Sox paying Sale's salary this year.

 

Interestingly, the Sox gave up Yoan Moncada to get Sale, and Moncada never quite lived up to his hype. 2 good years, 2019 and 2021, with WAR's of 4.6 and 4.0.

 

Neither did Michael Kopech

[mvp 78]

Neither did Michael Kopech

 

Never was able to get his walks under control.

[moonslav59]

You said: now it's like he was never a question mark and a negative impact on 4-5 season teams in a row.

 

That's making stuff up.

 

True. You got me. That was not a fair statement and implied posters forgot his history.

 

I did say "it's like..." not that people are saying he was never hurt or a question mark. It's just not being talked about by those gushing over a quarter season sample size of 2024. His 4-5 year recent history was why he was traded, and I will say, he was a still question mark, after last year, despite finishing the season healthy for the first time in over 4 years.

 

[dgalehouse]

We will just have to see how the Sale trade plays out in the future. As of now, I think the general feeling around baseball is that the Sox were fleeced.