Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

But.. but… but… he’s entitled to his opinion.

 

Of course the Stat Head crowd isn’t treating this like an opinion. We’re providing data that leads to a conclusion…

 

For some reason, supporting evidence bothers some, and we are made out to be a posse seeking to silent any desenters.

 

[Hugh2]

Baseball school: Teacher: " Johnny, what is the most games Jordan Montgomery has won in a season? " Johnny: " Ten.". Teacher: " Very good. Has Felix Hernandez ever done that ? " Johnny: " Yes, King Felix exceeded that in ten different seasons. " Teacher: " Right. And what did we learn from that? " Johnny: " Don't try to compare Montgomery with Felix Hernandez ? " Teacher: " Correct. Good job, Johnny. " The point is that I did not say that Montgomery was not a good pitcher. He clearly is. I just pointed out that he has never won more than ten games in a season. And that is the reality. The plain truth.

 

 

Maybe this is why the Red Sox refuse to give him $150 million dollars.

[notin]

Just like your opinion that guarding the 1B, and 3B lines were the same as the shift even though there was facts to back it up that it wasn’t. Now that is providing data to prove it wasn’t, and also to a conclusion.

 

Do I get to repost the link again where I clearly DID NOT say that? And were you clearly agreed with what I did say?

 

f*** it. Here it is. Post 58.

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20314-MLB-to-ban-the-shift/page4?highlight=Rule+shift+guard

 

Not the first time I’ve showed you…

[notin]

Baseball school: Teacher: " Johnny, what is the most games Jordan Montgomery has won in a season? " Johnny: " Ten.". Teacher: " Very good. Has Felix Hernandez ever done that ? " Johnny: " Yes, King Felix exceeded that in ten different seasons. " Teacher: " Right. And what did we learn from that? " Johnny: " Don't try to compare Montgomery with Felix Hernandez ? " Teacher: " Correct. Good job, Johnny. " The point is that I did not say that Montgomery was not a good pitcher. He clearly is. I just pointed out that he has never won more than ten games in a season. And that is the reality. The plain truth.

 

Johnny: And what does that W-L record mean?

Teacher: Nothing.

Johnny: But he’s never won more than 10 games!! The object is to win!

Teacher: Win as a team yes. But it didn’t matter what pitcher gets the win.

Johnny: But his career high is ten!

Teacher: Look, we can go on all day with examples of good pitchers and bad W-L records.

Johnny: Oh you can always disprove some stat with examples. But that doesn’t disprove it!

Teacher: Huh? If you do disprove it with data, maybe that’s because it’s not very good.

Johnny: But the object is to win!! It has to be.

Teacher: You might have problems, Johnny…

[Randy Red Sox]

Johnny: And what does that W-L record mean?

Teacher: Nothing.

Johnny: But he’s never won more than 10 games!! The object is to win!

Teacher: Win as a team yes. But it didn’t matter what pitcher gets the win.

Johnny: But his career high is ten!

Teacher: Look, we can go on all day with examples of good pitchers and bad W-L records.

Johnny: Oh you can always disprove some stat with examples. But that doesn’t disprove it!

Teacher: Huh? If you do disprove it with data, maybe that’s because it’s not very good.

Johnny: But the object is to win!! It has to be.

Teacher: You might have problems, Johnny…

 

would we have been happy if the most games Pedro or Schilling won was 10?

[Bellhorn04]

would we have been happy if the most games Pedro or Schilling won was 10?

 

There was a time wins were more meaningful.

 

Times change. It's just the way she goes.

[moonslav59]

would we have been happy if the most games Pedro or Schilling won was 10?

 

Yes, as long as the team went 23-10 in their starts.

 

I'd be bummed about the pen or O for not allowing them to meet some crazy guideline for them to be credited with the win, but if the team wins, that's what counts more than which pitcher gets credit for the win.

[mvp 78]

Montgomery had 9 QS last year where he didn't get the win. Seems like s*** luck?

 

from TEX:

8/9 - 6 Innings - 2 r, loss

8/21 - 8 Innings - 0 R, no decision

9/18 - 7 Innings - 1 R, no decision

9/28 - 6 Innings - 1 R, no decision

 

He only earned a win in one game where he gave up more than 2 earned runs:

 

4/2 - 5 Innings - 3 ER, win

 

In 7 of his losses, he pitched better than the above game.

[mvp 78]

would we have been happy if the most games Pedro or Schilling won was 10?

 

The year before he was traded to the Sox, Schilling was an 8-9 pitcher. Must have been toast at that point in his career.

[notin]

There was a time wins were more meaningful.

 

Times change. It's just the way she goes.

 

Exactly.

 

Bullpens are more important now. And that practice does affect pitcher win totals…

[notin]

Montgomery had 9 QS last year where he didn't get the win. Seems like s*** luck?

 

from TEX:

8/9 - 6 Innings - 2 r, loss

8/21 - 8 Innings - 0 R, no decision

9/18 - 7 Innings - 1 R, no decision

9/28 - 6 Innings - 1 R, no decision

 

He only earned a win in one game where he gave up more than 2 earned runs:

 

4/2 - 5 Innings - 3 ER, win

 

In 7 of his losses, he pitched better than the above game.

 

But… but… but… the object of the game is to win!!

[moonslav59]

I guess the most important thing a SP'er must do is let up less runs than the opponent.

 

If he lets up 7 ER and gets the win, because his team scored 8+, he's a better pitcher than the guy who lets up 1 run in a team loss.

 

Got it.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not a pitcher, but have to give them more credit than any teammate of any team win.

 

A starting pitcher who gets through five innings with the lead induces opposing batters into making 15 outs. Maybe he has a great defense behind him that catches line drives and gappers and turns DPs every frame. But the fact is, if a starter keeps his club in the game by throwing 50 pitches on average, he touches the ball 50 times when play is in session, and the ball is "live."

 

As an outfielder, I might touch a live ball once an inning (sometimes nonce). In those five innings, I may bat twice. Even if I make one nice running catch, or on O score and/or drive in runs, the pitcher has done more to earn the W than I have...

[moonslav59]

More than the determination on who gets the win needs to be changed, but it's hard to do it while keeping the rules 100% objective.

 

I think the QS rule should be updated to something like tis:

 

Now: 6 IP and 3 or less earned runs allowed.

 

My idea:

 

4+ IP 0-1 ER allowed

5+ IP 0-2 ER allowed

6+ IP 0-3 ER allowed

8+ IP 0-4 ER allowed (This seems like a no brainer. If going 6 and allowing 3 is quality at a 4.50 ERA, why wouldn't 8 IP at a 4.50 ERA be as good or not better?)

 

On wins, if a pitcher does any of the above and the team wins, assuming he left with the team ahead or tied, he should get the win, even if the team was tied or fell behind after he left. If a RP'er pitches more IP than the SP'er and does better, he should get the win, no matter what. (I'm not sure how to quantify that.)

 

[Old Red]

You guys are amazing, or at least think you are pointing out all the obvious points, and all the ifs, ands, and buts that goes into a pitchers W-L record. I have never said a W-L record is any be all end all of how good a starting pitcher is, and on the other hand I haven’t said it’s meaningless either. W-L record is what I notice first, but then look at other things after that I have mentioned before. Nobody has said Monty isn’t a good pitcher, and I have said he would help the Red Sox, but that I didn’t think he was as good as his recent hype, and worth any big $100M+ contract. It was pointed out that only once in his career, which was last year he won 10 games. A good part of that career was spent with the Yankees, so it wasn’t like he has played his career with bad ball clubs. Now after 140 career starts do I think he should have more than 38 wins yes, but I don’t think he’s a bad pitcher, because he hasn’t, but I dont think he’s as good as some do either. Once again W-L records for a pitcher is not the be all end all, but I don’t think there meaningless either.

[notin]

I'm not a pitcher, but have to give them more credit than any teammate of any team win.

 

A starting pitcher who gets through five innings with the lead induces opposing batters into making 15 outs. Maybe he has a great defense behind him that catches line drives and gappers and turns DPs every frame. But the fact is, if a starter keeps his club in the game by throwing 50 pitches on average, he touches the ball 50 times when play is in session, and the ball is "live."

 

As an outfielder, I might touch a live ball once an inning (sometimes nonce). In those five innings, I may bat twice. Even if I make one nice running catch, or on O score and/or drive in runs, the pitcher has done more to earn the W than I have...

 

But the bottom line is - if a pitcher gives you innings and doesn’t give up a lot of runs, he’s done his job. In the last 3 years, Montgomery has pitched 524 innings with an ERA of 3.48, which translates to an ERA+ of 121. He’s pitching a lot and holding opposing runs down. What else is he suppose to do? At that point, if he isn’t getting credit for wins, the three most likely reasons are poor run support, poor defense and ineffective relief pitching. None of these factors involve Montgomery…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You guys are amazing, or at least think you are pointing out all the obvious points, and all the ifs, ands, and buts that goes into a pitchers W-L record. I have never said a W-L record is any be all end all of how good a starting pitcher is, and on the other hand I haven’t said it’s meaningless either. W-L record is what I notice first, but then look at other things after that I have mentioned before. Nobody has said Monty isn’t a good pitcher, and I have said he would help the Red Sox, but that I didn’t think he was as good as his recent hype, and worth any big $100M+ contract. It was pointed out that only once in his career, which was last year he won 10 games. A good part of that career was spent with the Yankees, so it wasn’t like he has played his career with bad ball clubs. Now after 140 career starts do I think he should have more than 38 wins yes, but I don’t think he’s a bad pitcher, because he hasn’t, but I dont think he’s as good as some do either. Once again W-L records for a pitcher is not the be all end all, but I don’t think there meaningless either.

 

Montgomery was amazing after he got traded by NY to St. Louis at the '22 deadline. In his first six starts he had an ERA of about a buck-and-a-half and a sub-1 WHIP. His teammates must have been really good in those games, too, because his W-L was 5-0.

 

And the Yankees, who had the greatest team in the history of the first half of that season, looked pretty dumb... especially when they got swept in four straight by Houston in the LCS.

[moonslav59]

Montgomery was amazing after he got traded by NY to St. Louis at the '22 deadline. In his first six starts he had an ERA of about a buck-and-a-half and a sub-1 WHIP. His teammates must have been really good in those games, too, because his W-L was 5-0.

 

And the Yankees, who had the greatest team in the history of the first half of that season, looked pretty dumb... especially when they got swept in four straight by Houston in the LCS.

 

Monty is a pretty good pitcher. He gives innings. He keeps opponents from scoring a lot. He takes the ball, every 5 days.

 

There might be 20-30 SP'ers better than him, but none are on the Sox.

 

The odds are much better for us to win, if he was on the mound, and if wins is what the game is all about, he's a damn good SP'ers for increasing the chances of winning.

 

If he were to join the Sox, sending Houck to the pen would turn our pen from about average to a clear top 10-14 pen, on paper. That would help all our SP'ers in getting the team more wins.

 

Just do it. The cost should not be too high, as it seems nobody is beating down the door to overpay him.

[Bellhorn04]

I think everyone would agree that pitching 6 innings and allowing 2 runs would be a good performance by a starter.

 

To get a win in that situation, you need:

 

a) Your hitters to score at least 3 runs in the 6 innings.

Your relievers not to blow the lead.

 

Obviously neither one is a slam dunk.

[notin]

I think everyone would agree that pitching 6 innings and allowing 2 runs would be a good performance by a starter.

 

To get a win in that situation, you need:

 

a) Your hitters to score at least 3 runs in the 6 innings.

Your relievers not to blow the lead.

 

Obviously neither one is a slam dunk.

 

Or your defense to not blow the lead. There is a lot that can go wrong...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think everyone would agree that pitching 6 innings and allowing 2 runs would be a good performance by a starter.

 

To get a win in that situation, you need:

 

a) Your hitters to score at least 3 runs in the 6 innings.

Your relievers not to blow the lead.

 

Obviously neither one is a slam dunk.

 

Or a home run. Or one-third of a game's worth of immaculate innings.

 

This ain't celtstalk.com... nor have I stalked a celt, lately. Not while we all wait for Montgomery.

 

"Monty is trying to steal show..." General George S. Patton once said.

[mvp 78]

Montgomery was amazing after he got traded by NY to St. Louis at the '22 deadline. In his first six starts he had an ERA of about a buck-and-a-half and a sub-1 WHIP. His teammates must have been really good in those games, too, because his W-L was 5-0.

 

And the Yankees, who had the greatest team in the history of the first half of that season, looked pretty dumb... especially when they got swept in four straight by Houston in the LCS.

 

Montgomery '22:

 

Yanks - 21 GS, 3.69 ERA, 114 IP, 9 QS, 3 W, 3 L

STL - 11 GS, 3.11 ERA, 63 IP, 5 QS, 6 W, 3 L

 

Seems like s*** luck again, especially on a 99 win Yankees team.

[Tedballgame]

Chris Sale yesterday: Two perfect innings, 4 strikeouts. Hope he stays healthy and has a big year for the Braves.

[moonslav59]

Or your defense to not blow the lead. There is a lot that can go wrong...

 

Yes, 6 IP and 2 ER but 4 unearned runs won't win many games.

[dgalehouse]

I think everyone would agree that pitching 6 innings and allowing 2 runs would be a good performance by a starter.

 

To get a win in that situation, you need:

 

a) Your hitters to score at least 3 runs in the 6 innings.

Your relievers not to blow the lead.

 

Obviously neither one is a slam dunk.

 

Not a slam dunk. But most top pitchers have done it again and again. I am simply stating the reality of what has happened. No amount of debate points , no matter how sarcastic, can change that. Again, I have no problem signing Montgomery. But no matter how you slice it, ten games won is his career best at this point. That is the truth.

[Bellhorn04]

Not a slam dunk. But most top pitchers have done it again and again. I am simply stating the reality of what has happened. No amount of debate points , no matter how sarcastic, can change that. Again, I have no problem signing Montgomery. But no matter how you slice it, ten games won is his career best at this point. That is the truth.

 

Sure, there are plenty of things that are true but don't matter.

[moonslav59]

Sure, there are plenty of things that are true but don't matter.

 

Our points are "truth" as well.

 

Nobody is saying the listed Monty win totals are wrong.

[dgalehouse]

Sure, there are plenty of things that are true but don't matter.

 

Well, I have to disagree . There is room for speculation, opinion, explanations and such. And these are often influenced by particular beliefs and biases. And people do love to debate. And sometimes it is not clear what is or is not the truth. But sometimes it is clear. The truth sometimes hurts and we don't like to hear it. But it does matter. In this case Montgomery, while a good pitcher, has not won a lot of games. That is a fact.

[notin]

Well, I have to disagree . There is room for speculation, opinion, explanations and such. And these are often influenced by particular beliefs and biases. And people do love to debate. And sometimes it is not clear what is or is not the truth. But sometimes it is clear. The truth sometimes hurts and we don't like to hear it. But it does matter. In this case Montgomery, while a good pitcher, has not won a lot of games. That is a fact.

 

But what is the significance of him never winning more than 10 games?

[notin]

I think everyone would agree that pitching 6 innings and allowing 2 runs would be a good performance by a starter.

 

To get a win in that situation, you need:

 

a) Your hitters to score at least 3 runs in the 6 innings.

Your relievers not to blow the lead.

 

Obviously neither one is a slam dunk.

 

In road games, you need your team to score those 3 runs in 7 innings. Small clarification…