The Red Sox Can't Hit Baseball's Most Fundamental Pitch

The Boston Red Sox have begun the year ice cold at the plate. A lot has been said about the Red Sox being last in the league in home runs with only 15, tied with the San Francisco Giants. It has felt like a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts after the noise generated by a lack of 20+ HR projected hitters in the lineup. Despite a WBC surge, the team has done little to silence doubt on the power front.

They came into this season with playoff expectations. Now, anyone can see what is going on offensively and understand that it is simply not up to par. This is more like Bryson DeChambeau in the 2026 Masters: they've completely missed the cut.

On April 24, the Red Sox had the thirteenth-lowest swing rate. That, combined with a bottom-ten whiff rate and chase rate, creates a bad recipe when seeking to create a run-scoring environment. With their moves in the offseason, it became clear that the Sox had become more focused on mastering the defensive side of the field, as opposed to winning through power. That strategy, when implemented correctly, can work effectively.

Exhibit A would be as recent as last season with the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite being in the bottom three in both barrel rate and average exit velocity, the Brewers still finished with 97 wins and the first seed in the National League.

How?

By minimizing strikeouts (20.3%, 25th), maximizing walks (9.1%, 6th), stealing bases (164, 2nd), along with pitching prowess (3.59 ERA, 2nd). The method, while unorthodox, is effective when executed, and the Brewers did just that. The Red Sox meanwhile, have the 11th-highest strikeout rate (23.3%), are 20th in walk rate (8.8%), are 24th in steals (13), and are 19th in ERA (4.37). 

But let's move from beyond the overarching view and into diagnosing what is going wrong and if it can be fixed.

The Red Sox Can't Hit the Fastball

You read that right. The Red Sox cannot hit the most foundational pitch in the sport of baseball. It's often taught that in order to have success at the plate, crushing the fastball is the first step. A four-seam fastball (FF) is far and away the most-used pitch in MLB, with a whopping 30.56 percent usage league-wide, nearly doubling the second-highest used pitch, the sinker, with a 16.78 percent usage (which, in truth, is just another fastball with more movement).

Looking at 2025 results, team OPS against four-seam fastballs line up very similarly to wRC+ as a team against any arsenal. 

As you can see on the table above, there is a strong correlation between offensive potency and a team's ability to drive a fastball, with each team in the top five of OPS vs. fastballs also being top 10 in wRC+ in general.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have the second-worst OPS against fastballs in the majors (.621) and are also 29th in MLB in wRC+ (78). But it goes far deeper than simply an OPS observation. Their plate approach regarding fastballs is abysmal. Of the 288 home runs hit off of fastballs this season, the Red Sox have contributed just one. They beat fastballs into the ground at the fourth-highest rate in the league (38.2%), have the second-lowest xwOBA against four seamers (.296), and strikeout at the ninth-highest rate (23.6%).

They struggle just as much before the ball is put in play. They hardly swing at the pitch (44.1% Swing%, 29th), and when they do they whiff 27.3 percent of the time, the 22rd-highest rate in MLB. 

Let's narrow it down even more to simply pitches that are in the zone and not put in play. 

Pictured above is every four-seam fastball taken for a strike in their 1-0 victory over the Tigers, which lasted 10 innings. There are four pitches that are effectively on the black, and one that was a strike by maybe a seam, if not the wrong call. The other seven are pitches to jump on, especially as fastballs. 

In the line of four down on the left side, three of the four were strikes taken in a 0-0 count. I won't pretend to understand the scouting or approaches that the Red Sox are preaching to the team, especially as a professional hitter. What I will say, though, is that an 0-0 fastball in that location is often the best pitch a hitter will see all at-bat or even the entire game. You'd like to see guys jump on a fastball in that location no matter the count. 

The greater sin of that cluster of four, is a 3-1 take from Caleb Durbin in the bottom of the sixth inning. For a guy going into the series with Orioles hitting an ice-cold .141 at the plate, these are pitches that need to be jumped on. At the minimum, there needs to be a swing. 

But it's not just Durbin, it's dang near every lineup regular that can't hit a fastball. Here's a look at the starting lineup in the series finale against the Yankees. The stat to the right is batting average against four-seam fastballs.

1. Jarren Duran .133

2. Ceddanne Rafaela .318

3. Masataka Yoshida .250

4. Willson Contreras .143

5. Wilyer Abreu .143

6. Trevor Story .214

7. Marcelo Mayer .400 (!!!)

8. Caleb Durbin .158

9. Carlos Narvaez .063

The numbers tell a grim story throughout the order. Just three players are hitting over .250 against four-seamers. Not a formula for scoring runs, where the Red Sox rank 25th in the league. 

Bottom line, the offense is lost and I'm not sure there is a magic solution to right the ship in an instant. Approach problems are deeply ingrained within the culture of a team and it will be a long and arduous process to correct. Even if they do, I seriously doubt it will be in time to make a playoff run.

The deeper I got into research for this article, the more disappointed I got in the product we've been forced to watch this season. The .500 Red Sox from 2022-2024 were far more exciting than this; I miss those times dearly. The combination of swinging and missing too much AND taking too many strikes is one heck of a hole to put yourself in. I fear we're nearing the point where it's too late to dig themselves out.