Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

I can only think that they feel we were saying they were wrong with their numbers and not the idea that looking at a pitcher's win total as the first or most important thing to look at is flawed, in our opinions.

 

This happens, often, here.

 

And you finally admitted you do it more than anyone.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you guys like to just hear yourselves talk? You must, because you just keep rambling on' and on. It all boils down to some of you just can’t accept there are other opinions out there that doesn’t match yours. Just like you who said Sean McAdams didn’t know what he was talking about, because he didn’t agree with you on where Monty ranks in a rotation like it matters one way, or the other. I get every point everyone has made on Monty, but the big sticking point is on how much a W-L matters. I’ve never said it’s the be all end all, but you guys says it’s meaningless, and that is where we disagree. Monty must have been very unlucky all through his career to have never been more than a 10 game winner even playing on some good Yankees teams. I’m not saying your opinions are wrong, but when you guys goes with the meaningless route you guys aren’t doing the same. If Monty was a 20 game winner I’m sure that would get mentioned, and I would do it myself. It’s always amazing on here there just can’t be a agree to disagree on an opinion, and that’s a fact.

 

You know whose opinion matters on this?

 

The people who pay these guys.

 

And those people are making it obvious that W-L record means dogsquat.

 

That's the fact you guys can't get past.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You know whose opinion matters on this?

 

The people who pay these guys.

 

And those people are making it obvious that W-L record means dogsquat.

 

That's the fact you guys can't get past.

 

Remember when David Price's career postseason record in 11 games started for four different teams was 0-9... until he finally won the last game of the 2018 ALCS?

 

Maybe the best-paid hurler in history at the time didn't always pitch like dogsquat in October, but the record sure looked like it.

 

A lot of people -- fans, media, David, and I'll bet some teammates -- couldn't get over that fact... until he finally beat Houston and the Dodgers.

[moonslav59]

You know whose opinion matters on this?

 

The people who pay these guys.

 

And those people are making it obvious that W-L record means dogsquat.

 

That's the fact you guys can't get past.

 

They equate disagreeing with "not accepting others opinions."

 

We totally understand the points being made. We accept their opinions as being opinions. We offer our opinions, which disagree, and somehow, we are being unreasonable.

 

We know that nobody thinks wins is the be all-end all. We disagree that is should be the first thing looked at, just as others disagree fWAR, ERA_ or OPSA should be the first thing. I'm fine with anyone who disagrees with my first looks at numbers. I'm just offering my opinions and defendining them with as much evidence as I can provide. Somehow, this bothers people to no end.

[Bellhorn04]

Remember when David Price's career postseason record in 11 games started for four different teams was 0-9... until he finally won the last game of the 2018 ALCS?

 

Maybe the best-paid hurler in history at the time didn't always pitch like dogsquat in October, but the record sure looked like it.

 

A lot of people -- fans, media, David, and I'll bet some teammates -- couldn't get over that fact... until he finally beat Houston and the Dodgers.

 

It's funny, you've got Price, Verlander and Kershaw, they all struggled badly in the postseason until they finally had their moment in the sun.

 

They were all fortunate, really, to get as many chances as they did.

[notin]

Do you guys like to just hear yourselves talk? You must, because you just keep rambling on' and on. It all boils down to some of you just can’t accept there are other opinions out there that doesn’t match yours. Just like you who said Sean McAdams didn’t know what he was talking about, because he didn’t agree with you on where Monty ranks in a rotation like it matters one way, or the other. I get every point everyone has made on Monty, but the big sticking point is on how much a W-L matters. I’ve never said it’s the be all end all, but you guys says it’s meaningless, and that is where we disagree. Monty must have been very unlucky all through his career to have never been more than a 10 game winner even playing on some good Yankees teams. I’m not saying your opinions are wrong, but when you guys goes with the meaningless route you guys aren’t doing the same. If Monty was a 20 game winner I’m sure that would get mentioned, and I would do it myself. It’s always amazing on here there just can’t be a agree to disagree on an opinion, and that’s a fact.

 

Is this really a matter of opinion?

 

Statheads have said “W-L doesn’t matter” and provided lots of examples and data.

 

Old Schoolers have said “W-L does matter” and then blatantly refused to support that position. You can claim all you want about their right to their opinion, but that doesn’t make the statistic more relevant. It just means they like it more.

 

Of course dgalehouse did in one post overtly say that W-L matters. He has said it is statistically relevant. All anyone wants is some reason why.

 

And while you REPEATEDLY call out people who question his viewpoint, you’ve never once called him out for overriding anyone else’s…

[Old Red]

You know whose opinion matters on this?

 

The people who pay these guys.

 

And those people are making it obvious that W-L record means dogsquat.

 

That's the fact you guys can't get past.

 

Wrong! I get that 100%. I’m talking about what my opinion is, and what your opinion is. Just like what matters to us Old Schoolers, and what matters to you are two different things, and I get, and accept that. You on the other hand don’t, and that doesn’t change a thing. I’m sure Monty will get his money like Gray did, but that won’t change my point of view, or your point of view, and that’s the fact you can’t get over, or accept. Sean McAdams has forgotten more than you will probably ever know, but you will still think you know it all dogsquat, and all.

[Bellhorn04]

If Denny and Red were true to their principles, they'd be calling out Dombrowski as the biggest jackass on the planet for paying Nola 172 million when he could have had Wacha for a fraction of that.

[Bellhorn04]

Wrong! I get that 100%. I’m talking about what my opinion is, and what your opinion is. Just like what matters to us Old Schoolers, and what matters to you are two different things, and I get, and accept that. You on the other hand don’t, and that doesn’t change a thing. I’m sure Monty will get his money like Gray did, but that won’t change my point of view, or your point of view, and that’s the fact you can’t get over, or accept. Sean McAdams has forgotten more than you will probably ever know, but you will still think you know it all dogsquat, and all.

 

You can't handle the truth!

[notin]

It's funny, you've got Price, Verlander and Kershaw, they all struggled badly in the postseason until they finally had their moment in the sun.

 

They were all fortunate, really, to get as many chances as they did.

 

Greg Maddox was another with post season struggles. Heck the 2014 Tigers trotted out Scherzer-Price-Verlander in three consecutive games against the Orioles in the ALDS and lost all three.

 

Everyone always labeled these guys as chokers, but I always noticed they do worse in the postseason when they have higher IP during the regular season.

[notin]

Wrong! I get that 100%. I’m talking about what my opinion is, and what your opinion is. Just like what matters to us Old Schoolers, and what matters to you are two different things, and I get, and accept that. You on the other hand don’t, and that doesn’t change a thing. I’m sure Monty will get his money like Gray did, but that won’t change my point of view, or your point of view, and that’s the fact you can’t get over, or accept. Sean McAdams has forgotten more than you will probably ever know, but you will still think you know it all dogsquat, and all.

 

 

You clearly don’t get it. You’re posting from a position of “I have my opinion and anyone who disagrees is being stubborn.”

[Old Red]

Is this really a matter of opinion?

 

Statheads have said “W-L doesn’t matter” and provided lots of examples and data.

 

Old Schoolers have said “W-L does matter” and then blatantly refused to support that position. You can claim all you want about their right to their opinion, but that doesn’t make the statistic more relevant. It just means they like it more.

 

Of course dgalehouse did in one post overtly say that W-L matters. He has said it is statistically relevant. All anyone wants is some reason why.

 

And while you REPEATEDLY call out people who question his viewpoint, you’ve never once called him out for overriding anyone else’s…

I have repeatedly said I get every possible thing that goes into a pitchers W-L record, so all your examples in the world doesn’t change anything, because I already knew it. I have never said W-L record matters 100%, and I don’t think it does, but all I’ve ever said is it matters to some degree.

[moonslav59]

Every stat or metric is flawed, and I think we all know this.

 

We feel the win stat is more flawed than others, for various reasons. It's fine to disagree.

 

I feel the arbitrary rules set up on how to determine who gets the win is a major ding against using wins as a major factor in determining which SP'ers are better than others. (I hope nobody looks at W's and L's for RP'er evaluations.)

 

The rules are a joke, IMO. There are other factors that make this stat not as important as others, but clearly team wins matters the most. It's just that it's a team stat. So many combined reasons can go into every win and loss. At least with something like BA, there are minimal contexts needed, such as scorer determinations on errors v hits and park factors + variations in strength of pitchers faced, which is very hard to factor.

[Old Red]

You clearly don’t get it. You’re posting from a position of “I have my opinion and anyone who disagrees is being stubborn.”

 

You are doing the same thing, and have kept this going for 2 days now. The big difference is I’m not saying your opinion is wrong where you on the other hand are telling me I’m wrong. My opinion is what it is, and I don’t give a s*** rather you like it, or not. What matters to me is all I care about, and not what matters to you, or anyone else. You on the other hand can’t say that, and think you have to critique everything, and everyone. I’ve said before that to me BTV is a useless little toy, but I don’t comment on it every time it is referenced. Like I’ve said many times if I mention certain things all kinds of bells, and whistles goes off, and it’s not just talked about, but downed every time. It hasn’t, and won’t ever change a thing.

[notin]

I have repeatedly said I get every possible thing that goes into a pitchers W-L record, so all your examples in the world doesn’t change anything, because I already knew it. I have never said W-L record matters 100%, and I don’t think it does, but all I’ve ever said is it matters to some degree.

 

Nobody has ever said that your opinion is W-L record is the only thing that matters. That defense you keep repeatedly using is a Strawman Argument.

 

The contrary opinion to yours is much simpler - that it really doesn’t matter. Numerous examples supporting this position have been cited. Numerous explanations why have been provided. And no counter argument has ever come back beyond blanket statements and accusations of stubbornness.

 

And everyone gets BTV is a useless little toy. Of course, the critics of the site always fail to mention the incredibly obvious reason why - that it’s used by fans and not the executives who make trades. Does it provide realistic trades? Its history indicates that it does. But that means very little as it can be countered by questionable executives working for MLB teams. It’s one true purpose is shedding some light on all the insane trade proposals fans made before that sight that often boiled down to “let’s trade our garbage for All Stars” and occasionally questioning why the GM just would not do so…

Edited February 29, 2024 by notin

[Old Red]

You can't handle the truth!

 

That’s, because I’m a talksox hater, basher, and DISDAINER.

[notin]

You are doing the same thing, and have kept this going for 2 days now. The big difference is I’m not saying your opinion is wrong where you on the other hand are telling me I’m wrong. My opinion is what it is, and I don’t give a s*** rather you like it, or not. What matters to me is all I care about, and not what matters to you, or anyone else. You on the other hand can’t say that, and think you have to critique everything, and everyone. I’ve said before that to me BTV is a useless little toy, but I don’t comment on it every time it is referenced. Like I’ve said many times if I mention certain things all kinds of bells, and whistles goes off, and it’s not just talked about, but downed every time. It hasn’t, and won’t ever change a thing.

 

No, I’m not doing the same thing.

 

I’m providing evidence and examples. And quit pretending old schoolers aren’t countering. The repeated counter argument just never changed. It was always “but he’s never won more than 10 games.” Go back through the thread and see how many times that was used as sole support. Really it looked more like the Old School point was never to support their side as much as it was to make sure they got the last word…

[Old Red]

Nobody has ever said that your opinion is W-L record is the only thing that matters. That defense you keep repeatedly using is a Strawman Argument.

 

The contrary opinion to yours is much simpler - that it really doesn’t matter. Numerous examples supporting this position have been cited. Numerous explanations why have been provided. And no counter argument has ever come back beyond blanket statements and accusations of stubbornness…

It’s a matter of an opinion on what is an example that supports anything, or explanations either. I’m also not disagreeing anything, so there wouldn’t be a counter argument. You on the other hand are making all the arguments that doesn’t change a thing. A 20 game winner, or a 10 game winner all means something. It depends on how deep you want to dig into it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm still trying to figure out if in Montgomery no-decisions, he gave up 3.89 runs on average in the 5 innings he averaged in those starts...

 

... or is notin's 7 in 9 IP -- or moon's 2.1 in 5 IP?

[notin]

Every stat or metric is flawed, and I think we all know this.

 

We feel the win stat is more flawed than others, for various reasons. It's fine to disagree.

 

I feel the arbitrary rules set up on how to determine who gets the win is a major ding against using wins as a major factor in determining which SP'ers are better than others. (I hope nobody looks at W's and L's for RP'er evaluations.)

 

The rules are a joke, IMO. There are other factors that make this stat not as important as others, but clearly team wins matters the most. It's just that it's a team stat. So many combined reasons can go into every win and loss. At least with something like BA, there are minimal contexts needed, such as scorer determinations on errors v hits and park factors + variations in strength of pitchers faced, which is very hard to factor.

 

There was a time when that’s all they had. And the inability to really tell how good a RP was using nothing but W-L led to the creation of ERA…

[moonslav59]

I'm still trying to figure out if in Montgomery no-decisions, he gave up 3.89 runs on average in the 5 innings he averaged in those starts...

 

... or is notin's 7 in 9 IP -- or moon's 2.1 in 5 IP?

 

If a pitcher lets up 2 ER in 5 IP, every start of the year, his ERA would be 3.60. The QS stat is 3 ER in 6 IP or a 4.50 ERA.

 

Which looks better to you?

[Old Red]

No, I’m not doing the same thing.

 

I’m providing evidence and examples. And quit pretending old schoolers aren’t countering. The repeated counter argument just never changed. It was always “but he’s never won more than 10 games.” Go back through the thread and see how many times that was used as sole support. Really it looked more like the Old School point was never to support their side as much as it was to make sure they got the last word…

Like I keep saying the poor guy is just unlucky, and in the wrong place at the wrong time except for the end of last year to win more than 10 games. Maybe one of these years before his career is over he may get lucky to win more games.

[moonslav59]

There was a time when that’s all they had. And the inability to really tell how good a RP was using nothing but W-L led to the creation of ERA…

 

...and saves and blown saves.

[notin]

I'm still trying to figure out if in Montgomery no-decisions, he gave up 3.89 runs on average in the 5 innings he averaged in those starts...

 

... or is notin's 7 in 9 IP -- or moon's 2.1 in 5 IP?

 

 

The 3.89 ERA is over 9 innings, which he probably never pitched in a No Decision. (Maybe once or twice?)

 

That means Montgomery averaged 2.1 ER in those 5.1 IP.

 

Had he actually averaged giving up 3.89 ER per those 5.1 IP, his ERA would be 7.00…

[notin]

...and saves and blown saves.

 

That stuff didn’t come along for another half century or so…

[moonslav59]

There was a time when that’s all they had. And the inability to really tell how good a RP was using nothing but W-L led to the creation of ERA…

 

Take the other typical traditionalist stat, BA. Of course it has significant meaning and offers support for determining a player's value. It has a few flaws like who is scoring errors vs hits, how do differing park dimensions hurt or help one batter over another and then deeper things like how good or bad were the pitchers and fielders each batter faced over a season or career. Sure, BA leaves our walks, so many prefer OBP, but that does not change the meaning of BA.

 

The thing is, these are relatively minor, when compared to what rules dictate who gets a win or loss. Some example point to absurd awarding of wins and losses. A scorer who rules a clear hit an error does not affect a player's BA all that much, oer a season or career, and almost all batters have the same thing happen to them at maybe the same rate.

 

Now that pitchers are yanked earlier and earlier, it's harder for SP'er to get the win, due to an arbitrary rule set decades ago. Also, a pitcher can leave the game with a shut out or with a2-1 lead in the 6th, 7th or laters, and the next guy allows the tying run, and that guy gets the win, if the team's offense brings the team back to the lead by the end of the game. It is a highly flawed system of determining who gets the win. All this happens, even before you get to other factors like run support, defensive support and the same old park factors/strength of opponent issues are introduced to the equation.

 

It's an absurd example, but some pitcher could pitch 33 CG 1 run starts and be 0-33. No batter can hit 33 out of a 100 and have a BA of .200 or .400.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 3.89 ERA is over 9 innings, which he probably never pitched in a No Decision. (Maybe once or twice?)

 

That means Montgomery averaged 2.1 ER in those 5.1 IP.

 

Had he actually averaged giving up 3.89 ER per those 5.1 IP, his ERA would be 7.00…

 

I was going to say Smoltz in the 1-0 Game Seven of the '91 World Series... but he only pitched into the 8th. Jack Morris threw a 10-inning shutout for the win -- but let's not dive back into his Hall of Fame resume...

 

... then again, there was the classic where Marichal bested Spahn and each pitched 15-inning shutouts before Mays home run gave them both decisions.

[moonslav59]

That stuff didn’t come along for another half century or so…

 

Indeed, and it took a long time for fans to accept ERA as a very important indicator of talent and production.

 

Guys like Felix Hernandez are grateful to the awakening by many.

[cp176]

It's arguments like this that actually make looking any stat in combination with others as being significant. I like pitchers who win a lot of games and have low earned run averages to go along with lots of innings pitched with any type of fastball that is 94mph +. Does that make me just another old schooler who doesn't get it?

[Bellhorn04]

It's arguments like this that actually make looking any stat in combination with others as being significant. I like pitchers who win a lot of games and have low earned run averages to go along with lots of innings pitched with any type of fastball that is 94mph +. Does that make me just another old schooler who doesn't get it?

 

Just chuck out the wins and it all makes perfect sense!