Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

i think that if you are going to make a worthwhile evaluation of any athlete in any game you better access all the available information about that athlete that you can get your hands on.

 

Did he throw up this morning because of last night's tequila shots or bad crab legs? And check his temp, because a fever could mean the flu.

[cp176]

I actually don't think so.

 

I think merely listing the top five active pitchers in career wins and top ten in ERA is not a good metric without a solid minimum IP. But even if you look at top ten in K or fWAR, are even they the same names?

 

I knew that I shouldn't have done this. I like my way of looking at and evaluating athletic talent too much to change I guess.

[cp176]

Did he throw up this morning because of last night's tequila shots or bad crab legs? And check his temp, because a fever could mean the flu.

 

Might make a difference where you chose to take his temp I guess.

[notin]

I actually don't think so.

 

I think merely listing the top five active pitchers in career wins and top ten in ERA is not a good metric without a solid minimum IP. But even if you look at top ten in K or fWAR, are even they the same names?

 

I stand corrected on this.

 

The top 5 names among active pitchers are Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Wainwright. They are also the top 5 in fWAR and K, among active pitchers. Of course, they are also the top 5 among IP as well...

Edited February 29, 2024 by notin

[notin]

I knew that I shouldn't have done this. I like my way of looking at and evaluating athletic talent too much to change I guess.

 

Actually, you should have. It lends some credence to Wins, at least, over long periods of time and makes a statement about the longevity of pitchers. I would not say it leads to validating every W-L record every year, but it does more to validate it as a career accomplishment...

[moonslav59]

I actually don't think so.

 

I think merely listing the top five active pitchers in career wins and top ten in ERA is not a good metric without a solid minimum IP. But even if you look at top ten in K or fWAR, are even they the same names?

 

Lets just look at the 29 pitchers who have 2,000+ IP since 2003 (last 2 seasons.) That's a pretty legit sample size.

 

We see guys like Felix (5th best ERA at 3.42) with just a 169-136 record, while Porcello has the worst ERA at 4.40, but has a 150-125 record.

 

Kyle Lohse has an almost identical ERA as Porcello (4.34) and IP, but waas 116-117. Aaron Harang had a better ERA than both but went 118-133.

 

Hell Matt Cain had a very decent 3.68 ERA but went 104-118, while Jarrod Weaver was at 3.63 and went 150-98.

 

Show me wild inconsistencies in the ERA- leaders of the last 20 seasons (2000+ IP)

63 Kershaw

75 Scherzer

76 Verlander

81 Price

82 Hamels

83 Greinke

84 C Lee & Felix

85 Sabathia

86 Lester & Cueto

 

Who clearly doesn't belong?

 

Who below them belongs?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2004&season=2023&qual=2000&sortcol=13&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[cp176]

Actually, you should have. It lends some credence to Wins, at least, over long periods of time and makes a statement about the longevity of pitchers. I would not say it leads to validating every W-L record every year, but it does more to validate it as a career accomplishment...

 

I can't say that I'm not enjoying this conversation and i'm not looking for any type of validation when it comes to the way I might judge an athlete's talent. I think that it is obvious that you need to use as much info statistically for sure that you can get to judge or compare talent. I don't tend to focus on the outliers, although I know that they exist, to prove some point. Better players tend to have more positive statistics of all kinds then poorer players. I like better players.lol

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Lets just look at the 29 pitchers who have 2,000+ IP since 2003 (last 2 seasons.) That's a pretty legit sample size.

 

We see guys like Felix (5th best ERA at 3.42) with just a 169-136 record, while Porcello has the worst ERA at 4.40, but has a 150-125 record.

 

Kyle Lohse has an almost identical ERA as Porcello (4.34) and IP, but waas 116-117. Aaron Harang had a better ERA than both but went 118-133.

 

Hell Matt Cain had a very decent 3.68 ERA but went 104-118, while Jarrod Weaver was at 3.63 and went 150-98.

 

Show me wild inconsistencies in the ERA- leaders of the last 20 seasons (2000+ IP)

63 Kershaw

75 Scherzer

76 Verlander

81 Price

82 Hamels

83 Greinke

84 C Lee & Felix

85 Sabathia

86 Lester & Cueto

 

Who clearly doesn't belong?

 

Who below them belongs?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=1&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2004&season=2023&qual=2000&sortcol=13&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

 

Nolan Ryan. He was the first star pitcher in the 1970s noted for some bad records on bad teams. Despite leading the AL in stats like Ks, IP, CG, SHO, H9 (and no H9), Ryan lost 15 games a year for almost a decade. On the Angels, he was the Mike Trout of pitchers.

 

The Ryan season that should end this debate, however, was 1987 on a below-.500 Houston club. That's when he led the NL in ERA, Ks, FIP, H9, K9, ERA+, K/BB... but for some reason only finished 5th in Cy Young voting, with 0 1st place votes. Maybe it was his won-loss record: 8-16.

[cp176]

Nolan Ryan. He was the first star pitcher in the 1970s noted for some bad records on bad teams. Despite leading the AL in stats like Ks, IP, CG, SHO, H9 (and no H9), Ryan lost 15 games a year for almost a decade. On the Angels, he was the Mike Trout of pitchers.

 

The Ryan season that should end this debate, however, was 1987 on a below-.500 Houston club. That's when he led the NL in ERA, Ks, FIP, H9, K9, ERA+, K/BB... but for some reason only finished 5th in Cy Young voting, with 0 1st place votes. Maybe it was his won-loss record: 8-16.

 

Hey - you see - right there- clears everything up. Nolan Ryan has set this great debate to rest - A pitcher's win loss record is meaningless! lol

[moonslav59]

Hey - you see - right there- clears everything up. Nolan Ryan has set this great debate to rest - A pitcher's win loss record is meaningless! lol

 

LOL. I knew you'd come around!

 

BTW, can anyone name any SP'er with 2500+ IP and a great ERA, who was not very good?

 

How about a pitcher with 2500+ IP, and ERA over 4.50 who was a very good pitcher?

 

Look at the list of exceptions for each stat.

[dgalehouse]

People are using arguments involving one year stats or small samples like post season play. Okay. But I am saying that in seven years, ten wins is Montgomery's career best. And he only did that once. Every other year was single digits. You have to admit, that is a little unusual for someone who is so highly coveted. Has he been that unlucky ? And as for the different circumstances in awarding wins , none of those are unique to Montgomery. They are the same for every pitcher. In closing, I say that Montgomery is obviously a good pitcher and would probably improve the Sox' staff. But I think the fact that fans are putting so much of their hope into signing Montgomery is more a case of desperation than it is of anything else. Let us hope that , should the Sox sign him, he wins more than he has so far.

[cp176]

LOL. I knew you'd come around!

 

BTW, can anyone name any SP'er with 2500+ IP and a great ERA, who was not very good?

 

How about a pitcher with 2500+ IP, and ERA over 4.50 who was a very good pitcher?

 

Look at the list of exceptions for each stat.

 

Oh i got it - a trick question. when I say that a pitcher who had a total of 2500 innings and an era over 4.5 wasn't all that very good, you have an ACE up your sleeve. hmmm-

[cp176]

People are using arguments involving one year stats or small samples like post season play. Okay. But I am saying that in seven years, ten wins is Montgomery's career best. And he only did that once. Every other year was single digits. You have to admit, that is a little unusual for someone who is so highly coveted. Has he been that unlucky ? And as for the different circumstances in awarding wins , none of those are unique to Montgomery. They are the same for every pitcher. In closing, I say that Montgomery is obviously a good pitcher and would probably improve the Sox' staff. But I think the fact that fans are putting so much of their hope into signing Montgomery is more a case of desperation than it is of anything else. Let us hope that , should the Sox sign him, he wins more than he has so far.

 

If they choose to pay him a grotesque amount of money, it certainly would appear that they are desperate. Wait - they are desperate. they really haven't done anything that amounts to anything so far to address the most glaring need that they have.

[dgalehouse]

You know whose opinion matters on this?

 

The people who pay these guys.

 

And those people are making it obvious that W-L record means dogsquat.

 

That's the fact you guys can't get past.

 

Well, I don't think too many ten game winners are getting the big contracts.

[mvp 78]

Does Verlander have enough in the tank to get to 300 wins? He needs 43 more, so at least 3 more productive seasons.

 

Any other active pitchers have a reasonable shot? Gerrit Cole only has 145 at age 32. Doesn't seem like current pitchers stack up 20 win seasons like they used to.

[moonslav59]

But I am saying that in seven years, ten wins is Montgomery's career best. And he only did that once. Every other year was single digits. You have to admit, that is a little unusual for someone who is so highly coveted.

 

Is it all that unusual?

 

In the past 3 years (split seasons), I looked at the top SP pitchers by ERA (100+ IP in a season), and here is how many SP'er had 11 wins or less:

 

24 out of the top 60

[moonslav59]

Oh i got it - a trick question. when I say that a pitcher who had a total of 2500 innings and an era over 4.5 wasn't all that very good, you have an ACE up your sleeve. hmmm-

 

Is there anyone even close?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I don't think too many ten game winners are getting the big contracts.

 

8 game winner Gray - $75 mill

12 game winner Nola - $172 mill

10 game winner Monty - ???

[moonslav59]

Well, I don't think too many ten game winners are getting the big contracts.

 

Nola

 

90 wins in 9 seasons

6 wins in 20 GS

12 in27

17 in 33

12 in 34

5 in 12 (2020)

9 in 32

11 in 32

12 in 32

 

(last 3 years with 32 GS each year: 32 wins or 10.6 per year.) Big money.)

 

Sonny Gray has not had more than 11 wins since 2014.

5, 10, 11, 11, 5, 7, 8, 8 in last 7 years: Big money.

 

Rodon & deGrom just twice, each.

Edited February 29, 2024 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

8 game winner Gray - $75 mill

12 game winner Nola - $172 mill

10 game winner Monty - ???

 

Both have had double digit wins 5 times. Nola was resigned. Maybe Monty is just a late bloomer, and will do it again, but then again maybe he won’t.🙈🤭🤫

[dgalehouse]

If Denny and Red were true to their principles, they'd be calling out Dombrowski as the biggest jackass on the planet for paying Nola 172 million when he could have had Wacha for a fraction of that.

 

I think teams are a little leery of Wacha due to his health history. Nola is a career Phillie and a fan favorite. I think Philly management put some value in that. ( Maybe Sox management should take notice) Wheeler is probably better though. And the reason we think highly of Dombrowski is that he wins. It is that simple. Of course, some folks will look past that and say that winning doesn't matter all that much. Then we are back to square one.

[notin]

8 game winner Gray - $75 mill

12 game winner Nola - $172 mill

10 game winner Monty - ???

 

deGrom and Taijuan Walker last year…

[notin]

I think teams are a little leery of Wacha due to his health history. Nola is a career Phillie and a fan favorite. I think Philly management put some value in that. ( Maybe Sox management should take notice) Wheeler is probably better though. And the reason we think highly of Dombrowski is that he wins. It is that simple. Of course, some folks will look past that and say that winning doesn't matter all that much. Then we are back to square one.

 

 

Dombrowski clearly looks past pitcher W-L record. Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker (54-50, career high of 12 wins) are good examples of that…

[Bellhorn04]

deGrom and Taijuan Walker last year…

 

deGrom should be the clincher, really.

 

He got 5 years/$185 mill from Texas.

 

He hasn't won more than 11 games in any season since 2017.

 

In his back to back Cy Young seasons he won 21 games TOTAL.

[Old Red]

Dombrowski clearly looks past pitcher W-L record. Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker (54-50, career high of 12 wins) are good examples of that…

 

For all DD’s winning he no doubt has made some bad decisions before like resigning Sale, which was a MAJOR cluster of a FU, so to say DD did something, so it must be right I would say is a BAD example.🙈🤭

[Old Red]

deGrom should be the clincher, really.

 

He got 5 years/$185 mill from Texas.

 

He hasn't won more than 11 games in any season since 2017.

 

In his back to back Cy Young seasons he won 21 games TOTAL.

No one is disputing any of these facts you are throwing out there, and I will acknowledge that starting pitching isn’t what it used to be. Like I have said more than once that starting pitchers used to have as big a name as the sluggers. Sandy, and Gibby vs Willie, and Hank. Monty isn’t even close, or in the same breath as the basest pitchers in the game has ever seen, but you would think will all the airtime he’s gotten on here that he was.

[Old Red]

I think teams are a little leery of Wacha due to his health history. Nola is a career Phillie and a fan favorite. I think Philly management put some value in that. ( Maybe Sox management should take notice) Wheeler is probably better though. And the reason we think highly of Dombrowski is that he wins. It is that simple. Of course, some folks will look past that and say that winning doesn't matter all that much. Then we are back to square one.

100% agreement. 2 days of Monty part 2, and no one has solved a thing, or changed their mind, but of course just to say we agree to disagree would be strictly forbidden, or prohibited on here, because of course to the sum of the few on talksox there can only be one opinion.

[dgalehouse]

I think some of you are missing ( deliberately?) the point . It's not just that Monty only won ten games last year, it's the fact that that is the best he has ever done. That is about all that I have. I hate to keep repeating myself. I hate to keep repeating myself. I hate to keep repeating myself.

[Old Red]

I think some of you are missing ( deliberately?) the point . It's not just that Monty only won ten games last year, it's the fact that that is the best he has ever done. That is about all that I have. I hate to keep repeating myself. I hate to keep repeating myself. I hate to keep repeating myself.

 

Monty has just had so much bad luck, and run into bad circumstances not to mention playing on all those bad bad Yankee teams. It’s not all his fault.

[notin]

No one is disputing any of these facts you are throwing out there, and I will acknowledge that starting pitching isn’t what it used to be. Like I have said more than once that starting pitchers used to have as big a name as the sluggers. Sandy, and Gibby vs Willie, and Hank. Monty isn’t even close, or in the same breath as the basest pitchers in the game has ever seen, but you would think will all the airtime he’s gotten on here that he was.

 

No one is saying Montgomery is anything close to great. All anyone has said about him is that he is a better pitcher than his mediocre W-L record would indicate.

 

And he will probably capitalize to the tune of a 5 year $125mill contract. Or something in that neighborhood. Is it an overpay, even by MLB standards? Probably. Will he represent an upgrade for the Sox rotation? Definitely.

 

But if the Sox passed on him because the organization felt he was not likely to be worth his price tag, I wouldn’t be surprised. Or disappointed…