Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[notin]

Matt Strahm could have been a nice budget signing as a starter. Ironically signed by none other than the Desperate One.

 

1. Dombrowski actually didn’t sign him to start. Strahm moved into that role due to the injury to Ranger Suarez and a very weak cast of pitchers on the Phillies Reserve List

2. If folks here freak out about Dalbec playing one game at shortstop, how well would Strahm go over if he was signed to be a SP?

[mvp 78]

No, Strahm said he was going to transition to being a starter before the offseason.

 

I liked him as a reliever. His starter numbers weren't great. I didn't think it'd work out. I'm not sure if it will work out for him long term as he has a bad barrel rate and exit velo.

[Hugh2]

No, Strahm said he was going to transition to being a starter before the offseason.

 

But who expected him to be this good? thats my point.

[mvp 78]

But who expected him to be this good? thats my point.

 

229 BABIP alert

[Hugh2]

229 BABIP alert

 

So might point is strengthened that the options were bad.

[Bellhorn04]

229 BABIP alert

 

But a 2.93 FIP!

 

When a FIP collides with a BABIP, who wins?

[vegasbob]

But a 2.93 FIP!

 

When a FIP collides with a BABIP, who wins?

 

Batting Average Balls in Play are a contributing factor to Fielding Independent Pitching . FIP doesn't influence BABIP because BABIP is simply a factual statement. Of course Batting Average has its own considerable statistical problems

[Nick]

Kluber's FIP reamined amazingly consistent, all year.

3.54 after game one.

down to 3.29 by game 17.

as high as 3.75 game 6.

 

Game 12 to the end:

4.57 ERA but 3.55 FIP. His .742 OPSA was not helped by his .324 BAbip

 

Small sample size, but his last 3 starts:

3.38 ERA

3.30 FIP despite a .359 BAbip

 

Thanks as always Moon.

[sk7326]

Eovaldi has 1 fWAR already thanks to a 2.20 FIP. Just adding Nate would take the Sox pitching from 25th to 17th.

 

I was all for bringing Nate back - there were a ton of asterisks (health, etc) but he had a lot more ceiling than most of the other dumpster diving signees.

[sk7326]

Kluber's FIP reamined amazingly consistent, all year.

3.54 after game one.

down to 3.29 by game 17.

as high as 3.75 game 6.

 

Game 12 to the end:

4.57 ERA but 3.55 FIP. His .742 OPSA was not helped by his .324 BAbip

 

Small sample size, but his last 3 starts:

3.38 ERA

3.30 FIP despite a .359 BAbip

 

I am fairly optimistic he will settle into "fine". Like at least Pivetta "fine".

[sk7326]

The Sale trade worked. (It was the extension that is killing us.)

 

The Nate trade worked. He was a big part of the playoff victories. (The extension was meh.)

 

The Price signing was a gross overpay and 2-3 years too long. We all knew it, but how else do you get an ace, when you can't produce one from within the system?

 

(Yes, the easy answer is to improve your system, but that solution has been elusive.)

 

The Beckett trade worked.

 

The Schilling trade worked.

 

The Pedro trade more than worked.

 

The Lackey signing was so-so, but we needed a solid #2 for that ring year.

 

I'm not even that mad at the Price signing. A guy with a good track record and durability lost the latter after he signed - you take your chances, see what happens. And even THAT involved an indispensible contribution to a title winner.

 

Jon Lester signed with the Cubs as a 30 year old (like Price with Boston) and remained an innings eating metronome. Luck stinks sometimes.

[moonslav59]

I'm not even that mad at the Price signing. A guy with a good track record and durability lost the latter after he signed - you take your chances, see what happens. And even THAT involved an indispensible contribution to a title winner.

 

Jon Lester signed with the Cubs as a 30 year old (like Price with Boston) and remained an innings eating metronome. Luck stinks sometimes.

 

I thought the Price signing was needed, despite the 2-3 extra years. He had a record nearly unmatched by any big pitcher signing in that decade.

[Hugh2]

Remember guys like Price are always to complain about not signing (remember he was a cy young contender before he came here) but then complain about when the signing is presumably an overpay.

 

High end baseball salary has been about a 9-10% inflation rate.

 

What would we think of the DeGrome contract that would be 275/5 in 2028?

[d-money]

Our starting rotation sucks and it sucks that we can’t produce pitchers in the minors. Maybe in the offseason they can concentrate on that.

[moonslav59]

I'm not giving up hope on this year's rotation's ability to turn things around, but my hopes are fading.

 

Was the way Bello looked at the end of 2022 a mirage?

 

Can Whitlock find his groove as a starter?

 

Can Houck continue looking fine as a starter?

 

Pivetta is about the only "known commodity" we have in the rotation, but he's just a very good #5.

 

The rest is on some vets and prospects: Sale, Kluber and Paxton as the vets and Mata, Walter and Murphy (Drohan?) as the prospects.

 

By next winter, Kluber and Paxton's control is up. Sale and Pivetta will be on their last years, so we should have the outlook of treating the rotation as a high need area in terms of allocating resources to upgrading it.

 

I sure hope so. I had hopes we'd have spent more on it, this past winter, but it is what it is.

[notin]

Batting Average Balls in Play are a contributing factor to Fielding Independent Pitching . FIP doesn't influence BABIP because BABIP is simply a factual statement. Of course Batting Average has its own considerable statistical problems

 

BABIP doesn’t factor into FIP at all, as it’s just a function of Ks, BBS and HRs, none of which are part of BABIP. The theory is these are the only 3 outcomes a pitcher can control, or that at the very least, are not influenced by defense.

 

That a pitcher can control home runs feels debatable to me. I mean, wind can be a bigger factor in home runs than the pitcher…

[notin]

I'm not even that mad at the Price signing. A guy with a good track record and durability lost the latter after he signed - you take your chances, see what happens. And even THAT involved an indispensible contribution to a title winner.

 

Jon Lester signed with the Cubs as a 30 year old (like Price with Boston) and remained an innings eating metronome. Luck stinks sometimes.

 

The thing about the Price deal was the timing of the injury. If he didn’t get hurt in the second or third year of that contract, he likely opts out. (An injury in the first year might have given him enough time to recover and look valuable again.)

 

He started off the second year injured, and his third year wasn’t bad, but it certainly wasn’t good enough to walk away from $124mill over the next four years…

[moonslav59]

BABIP doesn’t factor into FIP at all, as it’s just a function of Ks, BBS and HRs, none of which are part of BABIP. The theory is these are the only 3 outcomes a pitcher can control, or that at the very least, are not influenced by defense.

 

That a pitcher can control home runs feels debatable to me. I mean, wind can be a bigger factor in home runs than the pitcher…

 

The park dimensions is another HR factor as well as parks better suited for LHBs or RHBs and what hand the pitcher throws from.

 

K's and BBs can be affected by who the ump is, but that likely evens out, unless you are a rookie or respected vet with ump cred.

[Bellhorn04]

BABIP doesn’t factor into FIP at all, as it’s just a function of Ks, BBS and HRs, none of which are part of BABIP. The theory is these are the only 3 outcomes a pitcher can control, or that at the very least, are not influenced by defense.

 

That a pitcher can control home runs feels debatable to me. I mean, wind can be a bigger factor in home runs than the pitcher…

 

God, now we're gonna need Wind-Adjusted FIP...

[Old Red]

Finally a good start by Kluber. Now let’s see if he can do something that Sale , and Whit couldn’t do, which is to pitch two good games in a row. If he can great, but if not back to the drawing board.

[notin]

God, now we're gonna need Wind-Adjusted FIP...

 

WAFIP exists. It’s just not as widely accepted as WAFL…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Finally a good start by Kluber. Now let’s see if he can do something that Sale , and Whit couldn’t do, which is to pitch two good games in a row. If he can great, but if not back to the drawing board.

 

Thus explains the fate of we fluctuating fans of the schizophrenic Sox straddling the scales of .500...

[Bellhorn04]

Kluber having a good game with McGuire catching is definitely a good sign.

[Bellhorn04]

WAFIP exists. It’s just not as widely accepted as WAFL…

 

Ah yes, Wins Above Felipe Lopez. The things I remember...

[moonslav59]

Finally a good start by Kluber. Now let’s see if he can do something that Sale , and Whit couldn’t do, which is to pitch two good games in a row. If he can great, but if not back to the drawing board.

 

As bad as his 6.75 ERA looks, he's actually had 2 good starts, and a third one was looking pretty good until the 5th inning- the one where Bleier allowed 2 inherited runners to score.

 

vs PIT

5 IP, 3H, 1ER 1BB, 2K

 

vs TBR

4.2 IP, 4H, 1BB, 7K (2 IR scored)

 

vs BAL

6 IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB, 3K

 

He's basically been okay to good, every other start:

 

Bad-good-ok-bad-good

[moonslav59]

Kluber having a good game with McGuire catching is definitely a good sign.

 

You're killing me!

 

[notin]

Ah yes, Wins Above Felipe Lopez. The things I remember...

 

You probably didn’t know, but that year, WAFL was the biggest topic at StatiCon, the world’s largest conference dedicated to static. And eliminating its cling from your laundry. And Felipe Lopez’ laundry…

[Hugh2]

Kluber having a good game with McGuire catching is definitely a good sign.

 

So, he should have pitched a perfect game with WONG.

[Bellhorn04]

So, he should have pitched a perfect game with WONG.

 

Now now, I'm trying to dial it back here, and get behind Reese a little...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Now now, I'm trying to dial it back here, and get behind Reese a little...

 

How's this: my son went a Sox game in Pittsburgh, and got there early to watch BP. He said McGuire put on a longball show, blasting them into the river, and only Devers hit more out.