A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

So Kenley Jansen is the Sox sole team rep for the All Star Game. Big kick to the head for Alex Verdugo, who absolutely deserved to be there (over Austin Hays, for example).

 

Let’s see if Cora can channel his Inner Belichick and use this as a motivator for the second half…

[moonslav59]

i didn't say anyone was. i was just asking.

 

Yes. My bad.

[moonslav59]

The problem is Duran has been amazing this year. And it leaves very little room for Duvall…

 

Indeed.

 

If we platoon him, alternating with Duran and Casas, it’s the short end platoon.

 

If he doesn’t start hitting, he may be traded. The problem is, what is he worth, if he is still slumping by the end of July?

[moonslav59]

Looking ahead however, do you offer arbitration to a non-closing RP already making $6.5mill?

 

If he keeps this up, yes, even if just to trade.

[moonslav59]

It's been a crazy ride. When you think they're going good, they flatline. When you think they're dead, Dr. Frankenstein plugs them back in.

 

A nice long win streak would help cancel out some of these messed up losing stretches.

 

The other crazy thing is our record v TOR/NYY vs our record vs the NL Central.

[Duran Is The Man]

A nice long win streak would help cancel out some of these messed up losing stretches.

 

The other crazy thing is our record v TOR/NYY vs our record vs the NL Central.

 

yeah....too bad they changed up the schedule so that we don't play the jays and yankees more this year. LOL. it is nice to turn it around on them after last year.

[moonslav59]

yeah....too bad they changed up the schedule so that we don't play the jays and yankees more this year. LOL. it is nice to turn it around on them after last year.

 

Games left vs our fellow contenders:

 

GB

-7.5 BAL 7 (3 HOME/4 AWAY)

 

-3.5 HOU: 7 (3 HOME/4 AWAY)

 

-3.5 NYY 7 (4 HOME/3 AWAY)

 

-2.0 TOR 6 (3 HOME/3 AWAY)

 

-1.5 LAA (none)

 

+1.0 CLE (none)

 

+1.5 SEA 3 AWAY

 

Plenty of chances to pass these guys by just beating them, head-to-head.

[Dipre]

Blow it up as in trade who, though?

 

I would trade Duvall, Paxton, Jansem, Martin and Turner.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With another starting pitcher headed towards the IL -- or subsequent ineffectiveness -- it's more and more likely the Sox should be sellers. The only other choice is to trade top prospects for an elite arm with lights-out stuff... because we all know a pitch-to-contact guy won't make a difference with this defense.

 

And does anyone -- Bloom, fans or media -- honestly think it's worth it this month to deal the future for a better shot at that last coveted wild card?

[redsoxrules]

This team so far this year has been back and forth. Meaning bad streak followed by a good streak. They have literally done this all year. Unless this changes they are far from a playoff team. They need to be more consistent. With all these injuries it will be hard to do

[Bellhorn04]

I would trade Duvall, Paxton, Jansem, Martin and Turner.

 

I'll be very surprised if they deal Jansen or Martin. This team's public image is so bad right now. I can't see them making it worse by unloading good pitchers under contract for 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

With another starting pitcher headed towards the IL -- or subsequent ineffectiveness -- it's more and more likely the Sox should be sellers. The only other choice is to trade top prospects for an elite arm with lights-out stuff... because we all know a pitch-to-contact guy won't make a difference with this defense.

 

And does anyone -- Bloom, fans or media -- honestly think it's worth it this month to deal the future for a better shot at that last coveted wild card?

 

I smell Red's Third Fork coming up again...

[moonslav59]

With another starting pitcher headed towards the IL -- or subsequent ineffectiveness -- it's more and more likely the Sox should be sellers. The only other choice is to trade top prospects for an elite arm with lights-out stuff... because we all know a pitch-to-contact guy won't make a difference with this defense.

 

And does anyone -- Bloom, fans or media -- honestly think it's worth it this month to deal the future for a better shot at that last coveted wild card?

 

It does seem like we are headed towards where we were, last year nearing the trade deadline, but for some reason, I have more optimism, now than I did after last year's 1-9 stretch vs TBR, TOR & NYY in July.

 

Stay tuned.

[moonslav59]

I would trade Duvall, Paxton, Jansem, Martin and Turner.

 

I may feel this way in 3-4 weeks, but not now.

[Bellhorn04]

It does seem like we are headed towards where we were, last year nearing the trade deadline, but for some reason, I have more optimism, now than I did after last year's 1-9 stretch vs TBR, TOR & NYY in July.

 

Stay tuned.

 

This team has shown surprising resilience. I wasn't really expecting them to go into TO and sweep this weekend.

[moonslav59]

We are back over .500 at 43-42.

 

85 games/5 SP'ers = 17

 

In theory, this is how many starts our pitchers have missed:

 

6 Sale

9 Paxton

5 Whitlock

4 Houck

4 Bello

(8 Kluber by demotion)

(9 Pivetta by demotion)

? Crawford missed some time in May

 

Other teams have had serious injuries, too. Ours seems to be focused almost exclusively on SP'ers and SSs, but 28 missed starts in 85 games is one third!

 

We all expected missed time from Sale and Paxton. I remember thinking counting on them for 33 starts combined was probably wishful thinking, yet they have combined for 20 starts, so far. Without those two, our first half would have been horrific.

 

Going forward:

 

Bello has to reach 28-30 starts and remain solid.

Paxton needs to reach 25 GS and also remain solid.

I'm not expecting anything from Sale, and his "missing" 16 GS'd the rest of the way will be hard to replace.

We might be lucky to get the 32 starts slotted at #3 & 4 to be filled by Houck, Whitlock & Sale.

That leaves 16 starts for the #5 guy: Crawford/Murphy/Walter/Pivetta/Opener games?

 

Our bats coming alive could help a lot.

 

The pen needs to stay solid.

 

Maybe the D can improve, once Story and/or Chang return.

 

[notin]

… and Whitlock is having elbow issues…

[moonslav59]

This team has shown surprising resilience. I wasn't really expecting them to go into TO and sweep this weekend.

 

They keep doing the unexpected- good and bad.

 

When they look sucky, it seems most of us locked into the idea that this was who we are, forgetting we are still the team that won 8 in a row, at one time.

 

We have a lot of talent. It may seem disjointed and and unbalanced, but 3 of the 4 key aspects of the game have carried us for long stretches:

 

The O did for a long time.

The pen has for almost the whole season.

The rotation has done an amazing job after the first few weeks, especially in light of 28 GS'd missed by injuries.

 

Only the D has failed to "carry us," at all.

 

If we can ever get all 3 going at once, and keep them going, we can overcome the poor D.

 

If the return of Story or Chang can help improve the D, and the other 3 areas stay more consistently good, this team can go places.

 

Too many "ifs" for most Sox fans. I get why.

[notin]

I would trade Duvall, Paxton, Jansem, Martin and Turner.

 

But keep Kike?

[moonslav59]

… and Whitlock is having elbow issues…

 

To think our rotation has actually been a strength for longer than a weakness, while Houck and Whitlock have been so up and down, is amazing.

 

Couple that with the Kluber and Pivetta demotions, and one can see the value of having better SP'er depth than we've had in a pretty long time.

 

It's funny that I was counting on one from Mata, Walter and Murphy to be helpful depth to the rotation, this year.

[moonslav59]

But keep Kike?

 

I think trading him is probably a given.

 

Paying his whole salary might gain some takers, but we won't get much for him, unless he explodes over the next 4 weeks.

 

Kluber, too.

 

Anyone want Mondesi? LOL!

[moonslav59]

Our SP'er ERA is at 4.73 (pen 3.96)

WHIP is 1.276 (pen 1.310)

OPSA in .760 (pen .719)

 

OPS Against as SP'ers

.587 Paxton 2.70 ERA

.657 Bello 3.08

.695 Houck 5.05

.739 Sale 4.58

.810 Crawford 5.30

.841 Whitlock 5.23

.881 Kluber 6.26

.885 Pivetta 6.30

(I won't list openers.)

 

Our rotation ranks...

27th in HR/9 1.54

24th ERA 4.73 (22nd in ERA- at 106)

19th in fWAR 4.7

13th WHIP 1.28

7th xFIP 4.01 (8th xFIP- at 94)

6th SIERA 4.03

6th K-BB% 16.7%

 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

I think trading him is probably a given.

 

Paying his whole salary might gain some takers, but we won't get much for him, unless he explodes over the next 4 weeks.

 

Kluber, too.

 

Anyone want Mondesi? LOL!

 

 

Kluber and Mondesi should just be put to sleep…

[notin]

I think trading him is probably a given.

 

Paying his whole salary might gain some takers, but we won't get much for him, unless he explodes over the next 4 weeks.

 

Kluber, too.

 

Anyone want Mondesi? LOL!

 

Chris Flexen get claimed or dealt?

[moonslav59]

Chris Flexen get claimed or dealt?

 

Have not heard a peep.

[Nick]

We are back over .500 at 43-42.

 

85 games/5 SP'ers = 17

 

In theory, this is how many starts our pitchers have missed:

 

6 Sale

9 Paxton

5 Whitlock

4 Houck

4 Bello

(8 Kluber by demotion)

(9 Pivetta by demotion)

? Crawford missed some time in May

 

Other teams have had serious injuries, too. Ours seems to be focused almost exclusively on SP'ers and SSs, but 28 missed starts in 85 games is one third!

 

We all expected missed time from Sale and Paxton. I remember thinking counting on them for 33 starts combined was probably wishful thinking, yet they have combined for 20 starts, so far. Without those two, our first half would have been horrific.

 

Going forward:

 

Bello has to reach 28-30 starts and remain solid.

Paxton needs to reach 25 GS and also remain solid.

I'm not expecting anything from Sale, and his "missing" 16 GS'd the rest of the way will be hard to replace.

We might be lucky to get the 32 starts slotted at #3 & 4 to be filled by Houck, Whitlock & Sale.

That leaves 16 starts for the #5 guy: Crawford/Murphy/Walter/Pivetta/Opener games?

 

Our bats coming alive could help a lot.

 

The pen needs to stay solid.

 

Maybe the D can improve, once Story and/or Chang return.

 

 

Ever the optimist. At least you don't give up.

[Nick]

I think trading him is probably a given.

 

Paying his whole salary might gain some takers, but we won't get much for him, unless he explodes over the next 4 weeks.

 

Kluber, too.

 

Anyone want Mondesi? LOL!

 

At some point, subtracting Kike will be positive for the Sox.

 

Right now, I rather see anyone else than Kike....even Valdez who is playing AAA.

[Nick]

Casas

AB HR RBI AVG OBP OPS Month

 

73 3 06 .137 .284 .585 April

70 3 08 .257 .338 .767 May

84 3 11 .286 .375 .851 June

 

Gotta keep playing him.

[Nick]

Moon, there should be a separate thread for 2023 Trade Deadline, pleeeeeeease

[vegasbob]

Moon, there should be a separate thread for 2023 Trade Deadline, pleeeeeeease

 

Yes, you could call it Bloom's Last Stand or Bloom's Revenge . It would feature comments on why Devers was traded for Bogaert's return from SD.