A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

i know. you're the glass is half full guy, i'm the half empty.

 

Not really.

 

Last year, I was one of the first to give up and advocate for a fire sale, including Bogey.

 

My optimism, this year, is not unfounded.

[moonslav59]

Updated Standings

 

+4.0 BAL

+1.0 HOU

 

+0.0 NYY (tied for 3rd WC slot)

+0.0 TOR (tied for 3rd WC slot)

 

-3.0 BOS

-3.5 LAA

-4.0 SEA

-4.5 CLE

 

Last series before AS Break:

OAK @ BOS

TOR @ DET

CHC @ NYY

SEA @ HOU

BAL @ MIN

LAA @ LAD

ATL @ TBR

 

[notin]

Pretty good. All but Reyes.

 

I do think at least one MI has to go to get Chang back on the 40 man. And it isn’t going to be Kike or Arroyo.

 

Who goes to activate Story will be a bigger move. Although at some point maybe they just move Kluber to the 60 day IL…

[Nick]

Again, no slight on JD. I loved him in a Sox uniform.

 

OPS before tonight:

.848 JD

.815 Turner

 

OPS since June 7th:

.670 JD

.927 Turner

 

Plus Turner playing 1B allows say Refs playing outfield giving Sox

another right handed bat.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

With Story locked up, is Yorke expendable ?

 

Or move Story to LF?

 

We r told Story could play any position.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With Story locked up, is Yorke expendable ?

 

Or move Story to LF?

 

We r told Story could play any position.

 

Any minor leaguer should be expendable if part of the right deal for a rebuilding team.

 

Nick Yorke's top asset has always been bat skill, whereas Story's rep is more athletic on defense and baserunning. Both started in pro ball as teens, but Story has always been prone to more strikeouts.

 

Yorke's progress promises more contact as a possible impact bat. Neither is so good at second base that they can't move to other positions, though.

[notin]

Any minor leaguer should be expendable if part of the right deal for a rebuilding team.

 

Nick Yorke's top asset has always been bat skill, whereas Story's rep is more athletic on defense and baserunning. Both started in pro ball as teens, but Story has always been prone to more strikeouts.

 

Yorke's progress promises more contact as a possible impact bat. Neither is so good at second base that they can't move to other positions, thought.

 

… except Story…

[Hugh2]

… except Story…

 

 

 

Story, when healthy, is an astronomically better defender than Yorke. Yorke's value is almost entirely tied to his bat.

[Nick]

… except Story…

 

I don't think there is any comparison between the two in terms of athleticism.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I do think at least one MI has to go to get Chang back on the 40 man. And it isn’t going to be Kike or Arroyo.

 

Who goes to activate Story will be a bigger move. Although at some point maybe they just move Kluber to the 60 day IL…

 

We could also just say good bye to Mondesi.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

… except Story…

 

With his speed and hands, don't you think Story could play centerfield? He doesn't have to be Robin Yount, but with modern medicine bionically enhancing his elbow, can he at least hit the cutoff as good as say, Damon or Ellsbury -- who the Sox won rings with in CF?

[moonslav59]

Post All Star Break roster moves - a prediction.

 

Activate Houck. Demote Murphy

Activate Schreiber. DFA Tayler Scott

Activate Reyes. Demote Hamilton

Activate Chang. DFA Reyes (with the hope he clears waivers).

Activate Paxton. Demote Jacques.

 

With all out SS issues, I'd try to find a way to keep Reyes. Story may not even play MI, when he eventually returns. Arroyo is an injury waiting to happen. Kike is a mess, but not bad at 2B or CF. We could trade Duvall and make Kike the back-up CF'er or possible Duran platoon.

 

Here is an idea I doubt they even discuss:

 

Keep Reyes until the trade deadline and go with 12 pitchers until August 1st. Our staff should be rested and we can strategically call up Houck, Whitlock,

and Schreiber to replace Murphy and the like right after they pitch a game.

 

We will have...

4 days off for the AS break

play 6 straight days

day off 7/20

play 3

day off 7/24

play 2

day off 7/27

play 6 straight through the deadline

day off 8/3 (2 days after the deadline)

 

August 4th: go back to 13 man staff and decide what to do with Reyes, Arroyo and others. (We may have traded someone like Duvall or Kike to make room for everyone.)

[notin]

With all out SS issues, I'd try to find a way to keep Reyes. Story may not even play MI, when he eventually returns. Arroyo is an injury waiting to happen. Kike is a mess, but not bad at 2B or CF. We could trade Duvall and make Kike the back-up CF'er or possible Duran platoon.

 

Here is an idea I doubt they even discuss:

 

Keep Reyes until the trade deadline and go with 12 pitchers until August 1st. Our staff should be rested and we can strategically call up Houck, Whitlock,

and Schreiber to replace Murphy and the like right after they pitch a game.

 

We will have...

4 days off for the AS break

play 6 straight days

day off 7/20

play 3

day off 7/24

play 2

day off 7/27

play 6 straight through the deadline

day off 8/3 (2 days after the deadline)

 

August 4th: go back to 13 man staff and decide what to do with Reyes, Arroyo and others. (We may have traded someone like Duvall or Kike to make room for everyone.)

 

It’s not about pitcher count. It’s about 40 man roster spots.

 

Story and Chang will each require one.

 

Reyes might clear waivers and accept assignment to Worcester. That’s probably the plan. Other than that, someone needs to get DFAd or bumped to the 60 day IL (Kluber?)

[moonslav59]

It’s not about pitcher count. It’s about 40 man roster spots.

 

Story and Chang will each require one.

 

Reyes might clear waivers and accept assignment to Worcester. That’s probably the plan. Other than that, someone needs to get DFAd or bumped to the 60 day IL (Kluber?)

 

It’s about 40 and 26. We can easily DFA someone other than Reyes, and then since he’s out of options, it becomes a 26 man issue.

 

Like I said, I doubt they even discuss going to 12 pitchers until we are set at SS, and I’m not going to be upset if or when they DFA Reyes, but the SS position has been. Merry go round, and holding Reyes for 2-3 more weeks makes some sense.

 

I see a logjam with so many LF/CF/1B/DHs on the 26, that I think we may trade Duvall. I’d say Kike, but he might not be traceable even if we pay his salary, and he can still play decent 2B, too. Our MI depth looks better with Reyes over Duvall.

 

The problem is that Duvall is still capable of hitting very well and carrying the O for stretches.

[moonslav59]

The JD vs Turner watch:

 

.837 JD

.818 Turner

 

 

Since May 12th

.835 JD

.858 Turner

 

Since June 8th

.640 JD

.971 Turner

 

SOX DH Position

.834 2023

.763 2022

.906 2021

.623 2020

.776 2019

.862 2018

[Nick]

Basically we are buying some time to get some of our players to return.

 

I seriously doubt Bloom is thinking about a blockbuster trade. That will create whole new set of problems.

 

You know that he is adverse to trading young prospects.

 

I truly believe Bloom thinks we will be in better place year from now. Let the younger players to gain another year of experience.

 

I see FA signings come this winter.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

First we must sweep the A's.

[Bellhorn04]

The JD vs Turner watch:

 

.837 JD

.818 Turner

 

 

Since May 12th

.835 JD

.858 Turner

 

Since June 8th

.640 JD

.971 Turner

 

SOX DH Position

.834 2023

.763 2022

.906 2021

.623 2020

.776 2019

.862 2018

 

Turner and Yoshida have both shut me up. They've been great.

[Maxbialystock]

First we must sweep the A's.

 

Meh. I know the A's are bottom feeders at 25-64 (.281), but they are 5-5 in their last 10 games as are the Sox. Plus we are going with two bullpen games/starters with Paxton starting the middle game.

 

However, the A's are also dead last in MLB in runs scored and in team ERA. They can't hit or pitch. But they do have 5 fewer errors than the Sox.

[Dipre]

Turner and Yoshida have both shut me up. They've been great.

 

Oh. You don't say, fine sir.

[Randy Red Sox]

Yeah we hardly even knew ya

We could also just say good bye to Mondesi.

[moonslav59]

Sherriff DFA'd to make room for Chang.

Ort placed on 15 day IL to make room for Paxton coming off the PAT list.

 

Next up...

Houck (demote Taylor)

Whitlock (demote Jacques)

Reyes (demote Murphy or Walter and go with 12 pitchers for 1-3 weeks)

McGuire (DFA Alfaro)

(Joely, Bleier, Kluber, CHamilton- who cares?)

 

Story (DFA Reyes)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yanks lost to the Cubs and Taillon (8IP 1H 0ER)

 

TOR won big

 

SEA up big on HOU

 

BAL up 1-0 on MIN in 7th

 

If HOU loses, they will be tied with TOR for WC2 and WC3

-1.0 NYY

-3.0 BOS

[moonslav59]

Surprising Sox OPS Leaders more than halfway through the season...

 

.861 Duran

.859 Yoshida

.821 Turner

.818 Duvall

.818 Devers

.804 Verdugo

 

.755 Refsnyder

.718 Casas

.705 Wong

 

.684 EValdez

.665 McGuire

.657 Arroyo

.614 Kike

 

.513 Chang

.472 DHam

 

ERA Leaders (8+ IP)

1.63 Martin

1.98 Murphy

2.12 Scheiber

 

2.51 Bernardino

2.70 Paxton

3.04 Bello

3.12 Walter

3.14 Winckowski

3.34 Jansen

 

4.11 Crawford

4.58 Sale

4.83 Pivetta

5.05 Houck

5.06 Jacques

5.23 Whitlock

 

6.11 Garza

6.26 Ort

 

7.04 Kluber

 

 

[Beaneater]

First post in many months, as I have found the Sox entertaining for the first time in a while.

 

My thinking is something like Millar's in 2004 before ALCS Game 4: don't let the Red Sox squeak into the playoffs. Because I don't think anyone really wants to face Paxton, Bello, and a hypothetically healthy Sale in the postseason. So I'm optimistic and really hoping they don't trade off any important pieces.

[Maxbialystock]

Surprising Sox OPS Leaders more than halfway through the season...

 

.861 Duran

.859 Yoshida

.821 Turner

.818 Duvall

.818 Devers

.804 Verdugo

 

.755 Refsnyder

.718 Casas

.705 Wong

 

.684 EValdez

.665 McGuire

.657 Arroyo

.614 Kike

 

.513 Chang

.472 DHam

 

ERA Leaders (8+ IP)

1.63 Martin

1.98 Murphy

2.12 Scheiber

 

2.51 Bernardino

2.70 Paxton

3.04 Bello

3.12 Walter

3.14 Winckowski

3.34 Jansen

 

4.11 Crawford

4.58 Sale

4.83 Pivetta

5.05 Houck

5.06 Jacques

5.23 Whitlock

 

6.11 Garza

6.26 Ort

 

7.04 Kluber

 

 

 

Wins Above Replacement--

 

Bello 2.9

Verdugo 2.8

Wong 1.8

Devers 1.7

Paxton 1.7

Duran 1.6

Turner 1.5

Martin 1.5

Yoshida 1.3

Crawford .9

Sale .9

Winckowski .8

Houck .8

Refsnyder .8

Jansen .7

Schreiber .6

Murphy .5

Duvall .5

Reyes .5

Pivetta .3

Whitlock .3

Sherriff .2

Walter .2

Chang .2

Hamilton (SS) -.1

Arroyo -.2

Garza -.2

McGuire -.3

Jacques -.3

Casas -.4

Kike -.5

Kluber -.8

[moonslav59]

First post in many months, as I have found the Sox entertaining for the first time in a while.

 

My thinking is something like Millar's in 2004 before ALCS Game 4: don't let the Red Sox squeak into the playoffs. Because I don't think anyone really wants to face Paxton, Bello, and a hypothetically healthy Sale in the postseason. So I'm optimistic and really hoping they don't trade off any important pieces.

 

We all hope we don't get in a situation where selling is the best option.

[Thunder]

Yanks lost to the Cubs and Taillon (8IP 1H 0ER)

 

TOR won big

 

SEA up big on HOU

 

BAL up 1-0 on MIN in 7th

 

If HOU loses, they will be tied with TOR for WC2 and WC3

-1.0 NYY

-3.0 BOS

 

Here's an interesting trivia question I thought of at the game tonight (I don't know the answer): When was the last time the Red Sox and Yankees made up the cellar of the division at the All Star Break?

[Duran Is The Man]

Here's an interesting trivia question I thought of at the game tonight (I don't know the answer): When was the last time the Red Sox and Yankees made up the cellar of the division at the All Star Break?

 

July 10, 1966 was the only time this ever happened before this year. the only other comparable situation i could find was when they were both at the bottom 7 july, 1925. of course this was 8 years before the all-star game began.

 

AL Overall

 

Tm W L W-L%GB RS RA

BAL 58 29 .667 -- 443 300

DET 48 35 .578 8.0 370 346

CLE 46 37 .554 10.0 313 303

CAL 46 39 .541 11.0 344 337

MIN 40 45 .471 17.0 323 333

KCA 39 46 .459 18.0 300 371

CHW 38 47 .447 19.0 301 279

WSA 39 49 .443 19.5 324 381

NYY 36 48 .429 20.5 308 326

BOS 37 52 .416 22.0 385 435

Edited July 8, 2023 by ****THEYANKEES

[moonslav59]

One more shout out to Turner, who should not be surprising anyone. The guy had an .866 OPS over his previous 9 seasons.

 

Amazingly, he’s had at least 1 rbi in 7 straight games. We’ve won 6 of those 7 games.

 

Thanks, Bloom.