A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

It is a terrific return considering the handcuffs ownership placed on the trade.

 

Wong’s glove has made me stop pining for Graterol…

[moonslav59]

Wong’s glove has made me stop pining for Graterol…

 

Funny how many felt he'd never stick as a catcher, and with his speed, we felt he could probably be okay somewhere else.

 

He's been a big bright spot, this year.

 

After the 5 years of no farm help beyond Houck, this year has been very refreshing:

 

Bello

Wong

Casas

Crawford

Wink

Duran's revival

Walter & Murphy have small sample sizes (21 IP combined), but have looked pretty good.

(EValdez did not look too bad. DHam has a ways to go.)

 

[Duran Is The Man]

He's made some blunders, for sure. I was highly critical of the JBJ trade (re: "Head scratcher"), the Richards and Diekman signings and more.

 

He did have other options, for sure, like spending more on pitching than hitting. I get that, but again, getting no help from the farm, seeing virtually every carry-over vet decline, even the ones in their prime, while having to manage a tough budget system for 5 years, again I ask what should be expected? It looks like some expected him to hit on 85-95% of his signings and trades, because even that might not have been enough.

 

The Story signing made sense, to me, since I felt all along that Bogey was not coming back. He could have had a sell-off last deadline, but may have been told not to do it.

 

Sure, he could have not signed Richards and Kluber, but what else do GMs normally get for $10M/1? Should he have not signed Renfroe, so he could spend $3M more on a SP'er and gotten a much better one?

 

I look at the price range he had and think he did about as expected to maybe little worse with the Kluber, Richards, Perez I, Perez II, Wacha and Hill signings.

 

The first Kike signing was decent- this one, not. The Barnes extensión sucked.

 

The Betts and Beni trades look good, in context. The JBJ trade sucked.

 

The Pivetta, Schwarber, Diekman and Vaz trades look good to me. One bad trade out of about a dozen.

 

The Whitlock, Scheiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo and other finds have helped, but he has surely swung and missed on many more low level deals- as expected.

 

Again, he had about 18 roster slots to fill in 2020 while slashing the budget. He had about 12-14 to fill before 2021 and precious little budget space. He had more money in 2022, but still about 10 slots to fill- not enough to get top quality players, unless you put all the eggs in 1-2 baskets. No help from the farm on filling any slots, except Houck, Dalbec and the recent call-ups in 2023.

 

No doubt, we could go back and name names of FAs who overperformed expectations and say, "He should have outbid the Rays for Eflin and re-signed Perez for 2022," but I don't think it's realistic to expect any GM to get 75% of his moves right, especially when needing to bargain hunt for 3 of his 4 years in control.

 

How many GM build winners with no farm help but Houck and a slashed budget year 1, followed by slow increases the next 3? There maybe be 1 or 2, but it's certainly not something to be expected.

 

 

i agree with Bellhorn in that he certianly could have done some things better. for one, he could have drafted better. just looking at the 2020 MLB draft, the Sox took Yorke (at #17), Jordan (#89), Wu-Yelland (#118) (who??) and Drohan at #148. Meanwhile, the Braves took Spenser Strider at #126 and Bryce Elder at #156. Both are not just contributing to the Braves RIGHT NOW but doing so in a big way.

[Duran Is The Man]

Yes, a win-win trade that still makes me sad.

 

it still makes me mad.

[Larry Cook]

i agree with Bellhorn in that he certianly could have done some things better. for one, he could have drafted better. just looking at the 2020 MLB draft, the Sox took Yorke (at #17), Jordan (#89), Wu-Yelland (#118) (who??) and Drohan at #148. Meanwhile, the Braves took Spenser Strider at #126 and Bryce Elder at #156. Both are not just contributing to the Braves RIGHT NOW but doing so in a big way.

 

Hindsight is 20/20

[Duran Is The Man]

Hindsight is 20/20

 

of course.

[sk7326]

I don't agree with this and never have. We didn't just trade 60 games, we gave up the chance of signing him to an extension, and we gave it up to the team that was in the best position to do it. It's quite possible the Dodgers wouldn't have made the trade if they didn't have designs on that.

 

This doesn't have any bearing on what Bloom got back, though. Time has shown that he did well.

 

The ultimate story with Betts is that if the Red Sox could not/did not want to (I think the answer is a little from column A, a little from column show Mookie the bag, they should have traded him at the 2019 deadline. It would have taken a lot of organizational PR courage, more than this ownership typically has shown.

[notin]

i agree with Bellhorn in that he certianly could have done some things better. for one, he could have drafted better. just looking at the 2020 MLB draft, the Sox took Yorke (at #17), Jordan (#89), Wu-Yelland (#118) (who??) and Drohan at #148. Meanwhile, the Braves took Spenser Strider at #126 and Bryce Elder at #156. Both are not just contributing to the Braves RIGHT NOW but doing so in a big way.

 

Strider and Elder have been great, but bear in mind every MLB team, each fully stocked with an arsenal of professional scouts, passed on these guys 125 and 155 times respectively.

 

There may have been some much involved as well as there was no 2020 college season for anyone to evaluate them…

[moonslav59]

i agree with Bellhorn in that he certianly could have done some things better. for one, he could have drafted better. just looking at the 2020 MLB draft, the Sox took Yorke (at #17), Jordan (#89), Wu-Yelland (#118) (who??) and Drohan at #148. Meanwhile, the Braves took Spenser Strider at #126 and Bryce Elder at #156. Both are not just contributing to the Braves RIGHT NOW but doing so in a big way.

 

It's easy to see any GM's choices and see they could have drafted someone better.

 

I really like our 2020 draft.

 

I like our others, too, but only time will tell, especially since he drafted almost only HS kids early on.

 

i'm fine with others disliking his draft choices, but nobody can give a definitive grade, this early. I think he did well, but I could be wrong or very wrong. I get that.

 

[moonslav59]

BAL beat the Yanks.

 

WC Standings:

+3.0 BAL

+1.0 HOU

+0.0 NYY

-1.5 TOR

-4.0 BOS

-4.0 LAA

-5.0 SEA

-5.5 CLE

 

We are down to 2 teams we need to pass. I'm thinking TOR and one from NYY or BAL is our best bet. BAL has a brutal stretch coming up (see below)

Games before the deadline:

 

BOS: 1TEX, 3OAK, 3@CHC, 3@OAK, 3NYM, 2ATL, 3@SFG, 3@SEA

NYY: 1BAL, 3CHC, 3@COL, 3@LAA, 3KCR, 2NYM, 3@BAL, 3TBR

BAL: 1@NYY, 3@MIN, 3MIA, 3LAD, 4@TBR, 3@PHI, 3NYY, 4@TOR

 

HOU: 4SEA, 3@LAA, 2@COL, 4@OAK, 3TEX, 3TBR, 3CLE

LAA: 2@LAD, 3HOU, 3NYY, 3PIT, 3@DET, 3@TOR, 3@ATL

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[Duran Is The Man]

Strider and Elder have been great, but bear in mind every MLB team, each fully stocked with an arsenal of professional scouts, passed on these guys 125 and 155 times respectively.

 

There may have been some much involved as well as there was no 2020 college season for anyone to evaluate them…

 

i'm well aware. just too bad someone with the Sox didn't see what the Braves saw in these two.

[moonslav59]

i'm well aware. just too bad someone with the Sox didn't see what the Braves saw in these two.

 

You still made a good point. Other organizations seem to get these choices right more often than us, although I think we have drafted pretty well for the last couple decades- just not so much with pitching.

 

Atlanta and a few other teams have done a great job, but I don't think we have done badly.

 

I think the 5 year near drought from Devers to Bello made us antsy and Bloom picking mostly HS players made our patience evaporate.

 

If we see the guys like Bello, Casas, Duran and even Crawford & Wink and realize they took over 4 years to get to this point, we should figure Bloom's farm should not have been expected to give us anything, until next year, at the earliest. Within that context, seeing be brought us Whitlock and Wink before the 4 years, that should be viewed as a plus. The rest is speculative and not gradeable, yet.

 

EValdez, Abreu and Hamilton may improve.

 

The farther away prospects look pretty good, on paper:

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

4. Yorke

5. Drohan

6. Anthony

7. Romero

10. Valdez, 14. Abreu, 19. Hamilton

15, E R-C

16. Jordan

18. Hickey

21. Alcantara, 23. Meidroth, 25. Guerrero, 26. Ravelo, 28. Kavadas, 29. Coffey, 30. Rogers

Lots of promising guys at FCL and DSL, too.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox Best OPS Team

.861 Yoshida DH

.849 Duran CF

.835 Duvall LF

.816 Devers 3B

.815 Turner 1B

.810 Verdugo RF

.746 Refsnyder 2B *stretching it here

.702 Reyes SS

.691 Wong C

 

[moonslav59]

ERA by Month for selected Sox pitchers:

APR>MAY>JUNE

6.57> 2.67> 2.14 Bello

N/A> 4.26> 1.74 Paxton

4.50> 6.08> 4.20 Houck

6.19> 1.80> 5.16 Whitlock

3.70> 2,84> 4.71 Crawford

1.40> 3.14> 5.73 Wink

5.11> 6.20> 2.53 Pivetta

6.75> 5.60> 9.45 Kluber

6.75> 2.42> N/A Sale

 

1.04> 6.43> 3.09 Jansen

2.57> 0.00> 2.61 Martin

[Nick]

This team sure would look different with Eovaldi and a healthy Story.

 

We're not that far off.

 

We often speak of a window. It looks like window opens up next year and should stay open for several years.

 

Big winter for Bloom. Should NOT count on Sale.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

You still made a good point. Other organizations seem to get these choices right more often than us, although I think we have drafted pretty well for the last couple decades- just not so much with pitching.

 

Atlanta and a few other teams have done a great job, but I don't think we have done badly.

 

I think the 5 year near drought from Devers to Bello made us antsy and Bloom picking mostly HS players made our patience evaporate.

 

If we see the guys like Bello, Casas, Duran and even Crawford & Wink and realize they took over 4 years to get to this point, we should figure Bloom's farm should not have been expected to give us anything, until next year, at the earliest. Within that context, seeing be brought us Whitlock and Wink before the 4 years, that should be viewed as a plus. The rest is speculative and not gradeable, yet.

 

EValdez, Abreu and Hamilton may improve.

 

The farther away prospects look pretty good, on paper:

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

4. Yorke

5. Drohan

6. Anthony

7. Romero

10. Valdez, 14. Abreu, 19. Hamilton

15, E R-C

16. Jordan

18. Hickey

21. Alcantara, 23. Meidroth, 25. Guerrero, 26. Ravelo, 28. Kavadas, 29. Coffey, 30. Rogers

Lots of promising guys at FCL and DSL, too.

 

 

 

 

Do not trade the prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do not trade the prospects.

 

Not even for an established under-30 big league starting pitcher like Dylan Cease? Bradford proposes this deadline deal: Cease and Andrew Vaughn for Casas, Rafaela, Yorke and Liu.

 

That's four Red Sox prospects, including three Top 5 guys. Gotta give up something to get something. Vaughn replaces Casas, Duran's breakout makes Rafaela expendable.

 

What says Chicago expert notin: are these White Sox players/personalities worth our top farmhands?

[moonslav59]

Not even for an established under-30 big league starting pitcher like Dylan Cease? Bradford proposes this deadline deal: Cease and Andrew Vaughn for Casas, Rafaela, Yorke and Liu.

 

That's four Red Sox prospects, including three Top 5 guys. Gotta give up something to get something. Vaughn replaces Casas, Duran's breakout makes Rafaela expendable.

 

What says Chicago expert notin: are these White Sox players/personalities worth our top farmhands?

 

Keeping Mayer would lead me to say Yes, but only if Cease agrees to extend.

[Hugh2]

Imagine if we traded for Alcantara last year? We'd have him in our rotation, which might still look good long term but we'd be worse off because you'd be subtracting Bello, our system would also be less Rafaella, Mayer ++++

 

Bello might have reached an untradeable status, he's exactly what you want to trade for and he's here now. But a year ago he's the profile of the type of guy you end up trading for high-end pitching.

 

And how much better would we be right now if Sandy was even pitching well? we weren't exactly blowing the world away when Sale was pitching like a vintage Sale for a month. This is why you strike when the iron is hot. Striking too soon would be like blowing your load just to get up to being a decent team.

 

Also, there are many ways to build a better roster from Drafting, trading, and free agency. There's a time and place for everything, and with the money they have to spend next year and the FA class headlined by pitchers, it makes all the sense in the world to be looking to sign an ACE this offseason and NOT trading resources for them. Think of it this way, would you rather have Ohtani???? or Ohtani and still have Mayer+??? Not saying Ohtani is the guy the target but I think my point is made.

 

To be fair, I thought all the stars aligned for the Sox to go after a big shortstop this offseason, they did not.

[notin]

Not even for an established under-30 big league starting pitcher like Dylan Cease? Bradford proposes this deadline deal: Cease and Andrew Vaughn for Casas, Rafaela, Yorke and Liu.

 

That's four Red Sox prospects, including three Top 5 guys. Gotta give up something to get something. Vaughn replaces Casas, Duran's breakout makes Rafaela expendable.

 

What says Chicago expert notin: are these White Sox players/personalities worth our top farmhands?

 

Whoever threw that deal together must like BTV. Values came out to 78.3 to 78.2.

 

If I’m the White Sox, I don’t make it. Already likely losing Giolito, so dealing Cease without getting back notable pitching at a time when the AL Central is winnable for all is a deal breaker. Casas for Vaughn is just a guess work deal. Rafaela is a great glove add, but his two best positions are manned by my best player (Robert) and my best prospect (Colson Montgomery). Re-alignments are possible, but ultimately this deal boils down to Cease for Rafaela and Yorke. And it strips the White Sox of pitching at a time when they need it most.

 

However, it’s not a bad deal and if Lou is replaced with a more notable arm - Drohan? Mata (if healthy)? Wikelman? - it would be much tougher to turn down…

Edited July 6, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Imagine if we traded for Alcantara last year? We'd have him in our rotation, which might still look good long term but we'd be worse off because you'd be subtracting Bello, our system would also be less Rafaella, Mayer ++++

 

Bello might have reached an untradeable status, he's exactly what you want to trade for and he's here now. But a year ago he's the profile of the type of guy you end up trading for high-end pitching.

 

And how much better would we be right now if Sandy was even pitching well? we weren't exactly blowing the world away when Sale was pitching like a vintage Sale for a month. This is why you strike when the iron is hot. Striking too soon would be like blowing your load just to get up to being a decent team.

 

Also, there are many ways to build a better roster from Drafting, trading, and free agency. There's a time and place for everything, and with the money they have to spend next year and the FA class headlined by pitchers, it makes all the sense in the world to be looking to sign an ACE this offseason and NOT trading resources for them. Think of it this way, would you rather have Ohtani???? or Ohtani and still have Mayer+??? Not saying Ohtani is the guy the target but I think my point is made.

 

To be fair, I thought all the stars aligned for the Sox to go after a big shortstop this offseason, they did not.

 

Imagine if we had signed Eflin ($40M/3) and Swanson ($177M/7). That's $38M/yr.

 

-10 Kluber

-10 Kike

-7 Duvall

-3 Mondesi

 

I think we'd still be under the tax line, but we'd have more longer term debt.

 

[moonslav59]

Whoever threw that deal together must like BTV. Values came out to 78.3 to 78.2.

 

If I’m the White Sox, I don’t make it. Already likely losing Giolito, so dealing Cease without getting back notable pitching at a time when the AL Central is winnable for all is a deal breaker. Casas for Vaughn is just a guess work deal. Rafaela is a great glove add, but his two best positions are manned by my best player (Robert) and my best prospect (Colson Montgomery). Re-alignments are possible, but ultimately this deal boils down to Cease for Rafaela and Yorke. And it strips the White Sox of pitching at a time when they need it most.

 

However, it’s not a bad deal and if Lou is replaced with a more notable arm - Drohan? Mata (if healthy)? Wikelman? - it would be much tougher to turn down…

 

I'd do the exact same deal and add Mata or Wikelman- maybe both.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Imagine if we had signed Eflin ($40M/3) and Swanson ($177M/7). That's $38M/yr.

 

-10 Kluber

-10 Kike

-7 Duvall

-3 Mondesi

 

I think we'd still be under the tax line, but we'd have more longer term debt.

 

 

... but more stability, getting what you pay for with two more legitimately decent players.

[moonslav59]

... but more stability, getting what you pay for with two more legitimately decent players.

 

Indeed. I felt like the quantity over quality was need from ‘20 to ‘22 but not ‘23.

[Duran Is The Man]

Imagine if we had signed Eflin ($40M/3) and Swanson ($177M/7). That's $38M/yr.

 

-10 Kluber

-10 Kike

-7 Duvall

-3 Mondesi

 

I think we'd still be under the tax line, but we'd have more longer term debt.

 

 

thanks for lessening my faith in Bloom even more.

[moonslav59]

thanks for lessening my faith in Bloom even more.

 

One could do this with ever GM that spends this much money in one winter

[moonslav59]

Again, no slight on JD. I loved him in a Sox uniform.

 

OPS before tonight:

.848 JD

.815 Turner

 

OPS since June 7th:

.670 JD

.927 Turner

 

[notin]

Post All Star Break roster moves - a prediction.

 

Activate Houck. Demote Murphy

Activate Schreiber. DFA Tayler Scott

Activate Reyes. Demote Hamilton

Activate Chang. DFA Reyes (with the hope he clears waivers).

Activate Paxton. Demote Jacques.

[Maxbialystock]

Post All Star Break roster moves - a prediction.

 

Activate Houck. Demote Murphy

Activate Schreiber. DFA Tayler Scott

Activate Reyes. Demote Hamilton

Activate Chang. DFA Reyes (with the hope he clears waivers).

Activate Paxton. Demote Jacques.

 

Pretty good. All but Reyes.

[Duran Is The Man]

One could do this with ever GM that spends this much money in one winter

 

i know. you're the glass is half full guy, i'm the half empty.