A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

I much rather get the starting pitching settled. Again, I don't think you see my point. Between E Rod, Richards and Perez, we are saving $25M? You telling me that's not enough to help reinforce the bullpen?

 

We already have Barnes, Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Brasier. Robles wants to come back. We can probably have Davis. We probably have some arms in minors ready to move up.

 

We are the new Rays.

 

Quit talking about needing $$$$$$$$$$ to be competitive. We signed both Kike and Renfroe for about $11M.

 

Dalbec, Whitlock and Houck made the MLB Pipeline Rookie Team. There will be more in 2022.

 

I’m pushing it when I say we might have $40M to spend, and that’s assuming nothing changes on the system.

 

I’ve said, if we can spend significantly more than $40M, I’m all in on Schwarber.

 

I’m not ever for spending large on RPers, and if can show me how we can get 3 solid RPers, a utility IFer and Schwarber for under $40M, I’m listening.

 

In short, Whitlock and Houck will fill the two holes in the rotation, but who fills their pen holes plus the Ottavino one?

 

Starting pitcher free agents seem like surer bets than signing RPer FAs, right?

[Nick]

I’m pushing it when I say we might have $40M to spend, and that’s assuming nothing changes on the system.

 

I’ve said, if we can spend significantly more than $40M, I’m all in on Schwarber.

 

I’m not ever for spending large on RPers, and if can show me how we can get 3 solid RPers, a utility IFer and Schwarber for under $40M, I’m listening.

 

In short, Whitlock and Houck will fill the two holes in the rotation, but who fills their pen holes plus the Ottavino one?

 

Starting pitcher free agents seem like surer bets than signing RPer FAs, right?

 

Starting pitcher free agents will cost more than bullpen help.

[Maxbialystock]

I keep on saying I just don’t see the infatuation with Schwaber. I have said this before that he is not a run producer, and is not a hitter in JD’s category, who hit for power, and average. Not the JD at the present even though he almost had 100 RBI again. Schwaber can hit as many homers, but he has only been above 71 RBI once in his career, and his high BA has been 266, and no he always hasn’t batted lead off. Someone on here wanted to give him a lifetime contract. Whoa pump the brakes. Of all the great players that have played for the Red Sox through the years, and this is the guy that should get a lifetime contract. He is no Babe Ruth, and shouldn’t be payed like one, nor is he a JD, and doesn’t deserve that kind of contract.

 

Schwarber was/is paid $7M this year with an OPS of .928. I don't see a lifetime contract, but would like him to stick around for awhile because he is demonstrably good for this team's lineup--along with JDM, Bogey, Devers, Dugo, Kike, etc. If Schwarber were Babe Ruth, the Sox would send him on to the Yankees. Schwarber gets extra points for the way he handled that egregious error night before last.

[Old Red]

A couple days ago, the talk was we have 1 SPer.

 

I said, if we use both Houck and Whitlock as SPers we’d need 3 top RPers. I even provided a chart with both alternatives.how much will signing 3 of the best 5-7 RPers cost plus a utility man. Subtract that from $40M and that’s what you can pay for Schwarber.

 

I think you would be taking a big risk to go into next season counting on Houck, who was very inconsistent this year at best, and Whitlock who has never thrown more than 73 innings, and who knows what Sale will look like next year. Just because that would be the cheapest way doesn’t mean it’s the best way.

[Old Red]

Schwarber was/is paid $7M this year with an OPS of .928. I don't see a lifetime contract, but would like him to stick around for awhile because he is demonstrably good for this team's lineup--along with JDM, Bogey, Devers, Dugo, Kike, etc. If Schwarber were Babe Ruth, the Sox would send him on to the Yankees. Schwarber gets extra points for the way he handled that egregious error night before last.

 

Like I said before the bar is set pretty damm low if you’re giving credit for making a routine play, and them hamming it up for the crowd. It won’t be so funny when he makes a big error in a critical moment.

[moonslav59]

Starting pitcher free agents will cost more than bullpen help.

 

Indeed, but answer my question.

 

Would you rather have Scherzer or Raul IGLESIAS and some other $15 M RPer?

 

Remember, adding a SPer slides Houck into the closer slot at no cost.

 

Give me some names and numbers you add to Schwarber’s cost.

[moonslav59]

I think you would be taking a big risk to go into next season counting on Houck, who was very inconsistent this year at best, and Whitlock who has never thrown more than 73 innings, and who knows what Sale will look like next year. Just because that would be the cheapest way doesn’t mean it’s the best way.

 

I’m for spending just about the whole winter budget on pitching.

 

I’m taking nothing for granted.

 

I’m not paying big time for a closer, so to me, our best bet is to keep Houck in the pen and maybe Whitlock, too. Hope one can be the closer.

 

Spend on starting pitcher(s).

[oldtimer]

I’m pushing it when I say we might have $40M to spend, and that’s assuming nothing changes on the system.

 

I’ve said, if we can spend significantly more than $40M, I’m all in on Schwarber.

 

I’m not ever for spending large on RPers, and if can show me how we can get 3 solid RPers, a utility IFer and Schwarber for under $40M, I’m listening.

 

In short, Whitlock and Houck will fill the two holes in the rotation, but who fills their pen holes plus the Ottavino one?

 

Starting pitcher free agents seem like surer bets than signing RPer FAs, right?

I expect our starters will include Eovaldi, Sale and Pivetta plus one of Houck (who will be working to add a new pitch) and Seabold available in case of injury. That leaves room for a #2 starter unless we decide to bid for E-Rod at full market value including length of contract.

 

I expect our relievers will include Whitlock, Taylor, Swamamura, Barnes, D-Hern, Brasier and possibly Robles.

 

We have alternatives in the minors and someone or two may allow for flexibility without going heavily into the FA market.

 

I think Ottavino, Perez, Richards and probably Valdez are gone.

[moonslav59]

I expect our starters will include Eovaldi, Sale and Pivetta plus one of Houck (who will be working to add a new pitch) and Seabold available in case of injury. That leaves room for a #2 starter unless we decide to bid for E-Rod at full market value including length of contract.

 

I expect our relievers will include Whitlock, Taylor, Swamamura, Barnes, D-Hern, Brasier and possibly Robles.

 

We have alternatives in the minors and someone or two may allow for flexibility without going heavily into the FA market.

 

I think Ottavino, Perez, Richards and probably Valdez are gone.

 

I’m glad someone at least described their plan rather than just criticizing mine.

 

I don’t think our pitching only needs an ERod re-sign or replacement.

 

I think significant upgrades are needed every year, or you end up going backwards.

 

We are losing a lot of innings from 2021, and counting on Seabold and more innings from Houck, Whitlock and others is pushing our luck.

[Nick]

Indeed, but answer my question.

 

Would you rather have Scherzer or Raul IGLESIAS and some other $15 M RPer?

 

Remember, adding a SPer slides Houck into the closer slot at no cost.

 

Give me some names and numbers you add to Schwarber’s cost.

 

Names and numbers are your expertise.......

 

I know you like the zero budget....I like year over year.

 

Our starting point is $215M.

Position Players

Vaz, Dalbec, Arroyo, Xander, Devers, Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe and JD. The raise Vaz will receive is offset by Marwin's $3M contract.

 

We're at $215M still before arbitration raises.

 

Starting Pitching

Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock...you can add Seabold and others in minors as depth pieces.

 

We'll lose E Rod $8.3M, Richards, $8.5M, Perez $5.0M, Ottavino $7.25M, offset by Barnes $5M raise, Net gain of $24M.

We'll also lose $13.75M & $2.8M from Pedey's and Beni's expiring contracts. Another $16M in savings.

 

That's $40M in savings or $45M under the old luxury tax line.

 

Bullpen composition is fickle. Everyone pissed and moaned about Robles and Davis acquisition. Bloom can put a bullpen together on a shoestring budget.

 

We already have in fold Barnes, Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Brasier and Davis. Robles wants to come back. He won't cost much.

 

Unlike you, I trust Bloom to acquire capable relievers similar to Robles' of the world. There will be candidates already pitching in our farm system,

Names such as Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford, Eduard Bazardo, and Durbin Feltman to name some names.

 

He's not going to spend big money on relievers. Look what happened to Barnes.

 

I trust Bloom.

 

If you've been following numbers, we have $40M left for arbitrations....you still think there's not enough money on Schwarber?

 

My numbers make sense.

[Old Red]

I’m for spending just about the whole winter budget on pitching.

 

I’m taking nothing for granted.

 

I’m not paying big time for a closer, so to me, our best bet is to keep Houck in the pen and maybe Whitlock, too. Hope one can be the closer.

 

Spend on starting pitcher(s).

 

This we agree on.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Schwarber was/is paid $7M this year with an OPS of .928. I don't see a lifetime contract, but would like him to stick around for awhile because he is demonstrably good for this team's lineup--along with JDM, Bogey, Devers, Dugo, Kike, etc. If Schwarber were Babe Ruth, the Sox would send him on to the Yankees. Schwarber gets extra points for the way he handled that egregious error night before last.

 

I agree. Schwarber is the kind of personality that bodes well for having a winning team. He keeps everyone loose and the former linebacker has a good approach at the plate. He can also hit HR's. What's not to like?

That was rhetorical, Old Red. You don't have to respond.

[Old Red]

I agree. Schwarber is the kind of personality that bodes well for having a winning team. He keeps everyone loose and the former linebacker has a good approach at the plate. He can also hit HR's. What's not to like?

That was rhetorical, Old Red. You don't have to respond.

 

Let’s sign him to a lifetime contract too.

[moonslav59]

Names and numbers are your expertise.......

 

I know you like the zero budget....I like year over year.

 

Our starting point is $215M.

Position Players

Vaz, Dalbec, Arroyo, Xander, Devers, Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe and JD. The raise Vaz will receive is offset by Marwin's $3M contract.

 

We're at $215M still before arbitration raises.

 

Starting Pitching

Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock...you can add Seabold and others in minors as depth pieces.

 

We'll lose E Rod $8.3M, Richards, $8.5M, Perez $5.0M, Ottavino $7.25M, offset by Barnes $5M raise, Net gain of $24M.

We'll also lose $13.75M & $2.8M from Pedey's and Beni's expiring contracts. Another $16M in savings.

 

That's $40M in savings or $45M under the old luxury tax line.

 

Bullpen composition is fickle. Everyone pissed and moaned about Robles and Davis acquisition. Bloom can put a bullpen together on a shoestring budget.

 

We already have in fold Barnes, Sawamura, Taylor, Darwinzon, Brasier and Davis. Robles wants to come back. He won't cost much.

 

Unlike you, I trust Bloom to acquire capable relievers similar to Robles' of the world. There will be candidates already pitching in our farm system,

Names such as Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford, Eduard Bazardo, and Durbin Feltman to name some names.

 

He's not going to spend big money on relievers. Look what happened to Barnes.

 

I trust Bloom.

 

If you've been following numbers, we have $40M left for arbitrations....you still think there's not enough money on Schwarber?

 

My numbers make sense.

 

If all you want is Schwarber and some under the radar pen arms, we can get 2 Schwarbers.

 

We are so far away in what the highest need area is for this team, I’m not sure it’s worth going back and forth, anymore.

 

I’m fine with giving Seabold a shot and more innings to Houck and Whitlock, but we still have a giant need on the staff. Like 2-3 pitchers short with one or two needing to be solid.

 

Look, I really like Schwarber. I’ve been one of JDs biggest supporters and I’d still prefer KS to JD. after arb raises, we’ll be lucky Henry gives Bloom $40M to spend. I doubt it’s that much, and if he tries to go quantity over quality, again, it will bring us guys like Richards, Perez, Ottavino and Andries. If you think that helps us get better, I’m stunned.

 

Bringing ERod back might not even break even with the 2021 ERod and may cost half the winter budget. People think Ottavino sucked, but he was good much more than bad and won’t be easy to replace.

 

Maybe we can trade for a cost effective pitcher, but there goes the farm or Bogey.

 

You know I trust Bloom, but we have a lot to do this winter and taking the luxury to double up on DHs, and yes, these guys are best used as DHs is not coming close to filling our greatest need areas. It’s my philosophy to build up your weakest link and not to spend on someone that forces another very good player to the bench.

 

Sign KS and trade JD, Dalbec or an OFer is the only way I see it being practical.

[illinoisredsox]

One thing all of these budgets can’t forecast is what the tax line will be next year. The new CBA could set it lower and/or adjust the tax levels.

 

I do hope they set a salary floor.

[Old Red]

 

If all you want is Schwarber and some under the radar pen arms, we can get 2 Schwarbers.

 

We are so far away in what the highest need area is for this team, I’m not sure it’s worth going back and forth, anymore.

 

I’m fine with giving Seabold a shot and more innings to Houck and Whitlock, but we still have a giant need on the staff. Like 2-3 pitchers short with one or two needing to be solid.

 

Look, I really like Schwarber. I’ve been one of JDs biggest supporters and I’d still prefer KS to JD. after arb raises, we’ll be lucky Henry gives Bloom $40M to spend. I doubt it’s that much, and if he tries to go quantity over quality, again, it will bring us guys like Richards, Perez, Ottavino and Andries. If you think that helps us get better, I’m stunned.

 

Bringing ERod back might not even break even with the 2021 ERod and may cost half the winter budget. People think Ottavino sucked, but he was good much more than bad and won’t be easy to replace.

 

Maybe we can trade for a cost effective pitcher, but there goes the farm or Bogey.

 

You know I trust Bloom, but we have a lot to do this winter and taking the luxury to double up on DHs, and yes, these guys are best used as DHs is not coming close to filling our greatest need areas. It’s my philosophy to build up your weakest link and not to spend on someone that forces another very good player to the bench.

 

Sign KS and trade JD, Dalbec or an OFer is the only way I see it being practical.

 

We can get 2 Schwaber’s? Wow this is getting more expensive by the minute, and hilarious too, because then we’d have to give out 2 lifetime contracts.

[jad]

Like I said before the bar is set pretty damm low if you’re giving credit for making a routine play, and them hamming it up for the crowd. It won’t be so funny when he makes a big error in a critical moment.

 

You and I obviously watch sports for different reasons.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you would be taking a big risk to go into next season counting on Houck, who was very inconsistent this year at best, and Whitlock who has never thrown more than 73 innings, and who knows what Sale will look like next year. Just because that would be the cheapest way doesn’t mean it’s the best way.

 

Houck has been very inconsistent this year at best? Seriously?

 

I don't know if his future is as a starter or as a bullpen weapon, but he's been a heck of a lot better than that.

[Hugh2]

One thing all of these budgets can’t forecast is what the tax line will be next year. The new CBA could set it lower and/or adjust the tax levels.

 

I do hope they set a salary floor.

 

It's been speculated that a lower tax line would come with fewer penalties and different thresholds. Supposedly the players union HATES this ideal, so theres a decent chance it doesn't make it in it.

[Bellhorn04]

It's been speculated that a lower tax line would come with fewer penalties and different thresholds. Supposedly the players union HATES this ideal, so theres a decent chance it doesn't make it in it.

 

In theory, a new tax system with a lower threshold that is less punitive and less of a deterrent to spending, but rakes in more tax money, would be better for just about everyone.

[Hugh2]

In theory, a new tax system with a lower threshold that is less punitive and less of a deterrent to spending, but rakes in more tax money, would be better for just about everyone.

 

Well, I think after the lower less penalizing threshold there would still be higher and harsher thresholds. I'm not going to pretend to know what is better for who, I just know the players union hates it.

[Hugh2]

Now might be a good time to look up what the latest rumors is instead of going off of what I read a few months ago, however.

[Old Red]

Houck has been very inconsistent this year at best? Seriously?

 

I don't know if his future is as a starter or as a bullpen weapon, but he's been a heck of a lot better than that.

 

I was was talking about him being a starter, and not what he’s done out of the bullpen. Seems to me he got taken out of the rotation cause he was doing so good. Seriously.

[Bellhorn04]

I was was talking about him being a starter, and not what he’s done out of the bullpen. Seems to me he got taken out of the rotation cause he was doing so good. Seriously.

 

Not really sure what the highlighted sentence means.

 

They took him out of the regular rotation at the end of the season, when we had some off days to play with, to be a flex guy who can relieve or start if necessary. He started Game 161 and pitched 5 perfect innings. He might start a game in the ALCS, who knows.

[mvp 78]

I was was talking about him being a starter, and not what he’s done out of the bullpen. Seems to me he got taken out of the rotation cause he was doing so good. Seriously.

 

He was "taken" out of the rotation because you can go with a shorter rotation in the playoffs. He may still get a start in the ALCS.

 

The bigger question is he in the rotation next season. Is he more valuable in 5 innings starts each week or high intensity innings out of the pen?

[moonslav59]

Well, I think after the lower less penalizing threshold there would still be higher and harsher thresholds. I'm not going to pretend to know what is better for who, I just know the players union hates it.

 

The union might warm up to the idea if they tie in raising the floor on low-spending teams significantly.

 

The union might be looking at ways to better the situation for the vast majority of its players rather than the few dozen biggest contract players.

[a700hitter]

Re-signing Nate has turned out much better than I thought it would.

[moonslav59]

I just don't get why anyone, especially now, in the thick of a playoff run, would bad mouth Houck.

 

The kid missed some time, but has been an incredible asset down the stretch and in the post season.

 

Sure, the guy only has 86 innings in the bigs, but our system finally produces a pitcher that comes out of the gates doing well, and he's maligned.

 

2.93 ERA

1.081 WHIP

3.6 K/BB

.579 OPS Against with a .294 BAbip is pretty damn decent.

 

Man, some of you guys are real tough on our players- even the good ones.

[Old Red]

Not really sure what the highlighted sentence means.

 

They took him out of the regular rotation at the end of the season, when we had some off days to play with, to be a flex guy who can relieve or start if necessary. He started Game 161 and pitched 5 perfect innings. He might start a game in the ALCS, who knows.

 

He was taken out of the rotation before the regular season ended. I’m very well aware he pitched game 161, and what he did. I like Houck, but all I said was it would be risky to count on him as one of your starters next year. He was inconsistent as a starter this year (stats anybody), and hasn’t thrown that many innings in a year, which is the same as Whitlock.

[Old Red]

I just don't get why anyone, especially now, in the thick of a playoff run, would bad mouth Houck.

 

The kid missed some time, but has been an incredible asset down the stretch and in the post season.

 

Sure, the guy only has 86 innings in the bigs, but our system finally produces a pitcher that comes out of the gates doing well, and he's maligned.

 

2.93 ERA

1.081 WHIP

3.6 K/BB

.579 OPS Against with a .294 BAbip is pretty damn decent.

 

Man, some of you guys are real tough on our players- even the good ones.

 

Who is bad mouthing Houck?? You had had him penciled in the bullpen next year, and you said adding both Houck, and Whitlock into the rotation next year would be like adding 1 pitcher, and not 2, and 150 innings, and all I said was it would be risky counting on him to be a full time starter next year, so like I asked who is bad mouthing Houck?