A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Do you actually think his agent, whose name rhymes with Scott Boras, will advise him to not opt out and therefore delay his free agency until he is 33 years old and will probably cost him about $50-100 mill when all is said and done?

 

If I had assumed he is staying, we'd have heard the opposite response.

[moonslav59]

I didn't intentionally leave that part out (especially since the link I provided sorts by defense). And you're still wrong about him being a below average defender. He has bad range, but is solid. He's just not flashy. He gets the job done. If he had a stronger 3b next to him, you wouldn't worry about his defense as much.

 

I'm not wrong.

 

You probably thought Jeter was a a good defender, too.

 

Bogey is the worst at DRS, and has been below average on UZR/150 over larger sample sizes, which is how they recommend that stat be used.

 

I have never shied away from saying a few metrics show he's average, but you choose to ignore all the ones that show he is below average to way below.

 

It's opinion, but I feel very strongly about my position..

 

[mvp 78]

Do you actually think his agent, whose name rhymes with Scott Boras, will advise him to not opt out and therefore delay his free agency until he is 33 years old and will probably cost him about $50-100 mill when all is said and done?

 

Boras will probably advise it, we'll see what happens.

[mvp 78]

I'm not wrong.

 

You probably thought Jeter was a a good defender, too.

 

Bogey is the worst at DRS, and has been below average on UZR/150 over larger sample sizes, which is how they recommend that stat be used.

 

I have never shied away from saying a few metrics show he's average, but you choose to ignore all the ones that show he is below average to way below.

 

It's opinion, but I feel very strongly about my position..

 

 

Wrong.

[notin]

If I had assumed he is staying, we'd have heard the opposite response.

 

Now it is possible that instead of splurging on free agents, Bloom simply extends Bogaerts. If his offer is comparable in years and cash to what Correa, Seager and Story get, than Bogaerts could easily stay.

 

That whole situation is so volatile right now. If X is adamant about not extending, then maybe he does become trade fodder.

 

There is literally no outcome I see as impossible, except the one where Bogaerts signs nothing and also refuses his opt out…

[notin]

Boras will probably advise it, we'll see what happens.

 

If he advises it, we can assume it happens. Bogaerts isn’t paying Boras millions per year to ignore his advice…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogey is the worst at DRS, and has been below average on UZR/150 over larger sample sizes, which is how they recommend that stat be used.

 

 

 

I wonder if his coaches and teammates feel he is solid, while the CBO cares more about the analytics (along with the bottom-line dollars and years).

 

Another consideration, of course, is how popular a homegrown hero is with the fans -- just kidding! Well, Bloom did extend Barnes... kidding again.

[moonslav59]

I wonder if his coaches and teammates feel he is solid, while the CBO cares more about the analytics (along with the bottom-line dollars and years).

 

Another consideration, of course, is how popular a homegrown hero is with the fans -- just kidding! Well, Bloom did extend Barnes... kidding again.

 

Bogey is a big net plus and a fan favorite.

 

I've never come close to even hinting he is not either of those.

 

I don't like his defense and think SS defense is a high priority.

[mvp 78]

Now it is possible that instead of splurging on free agents, Bloom simply extends Bogaerts. If his offer is comparable in years and cash to what Correa, Seager and Story get, than Bogaerts could easily stay.

 

That whole situation is so volatile right now. If X is adamant about not extending, then maybe he does become trade fodder.

 

There is literally no outcome I see as impossible, except the one where Bogaerts signs nothing and also refuses his opt out…

 

I prefer the extension route as well.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Bogey is a big net plus and a fan favorite.

 

I've never come close to even hinting he is not either of those.

 

I don't like his defense and think SS defense is a high priority.

 

The Bogey/Jeter comparison is spot on. Both had good hands and limited range and both, obviously, were/are very good hitters.

[notin]

I wonder if his coaches and teammates feel he is solid, while the CBO cares more about the analytics (along with the bottom-line dollars and years).

 

Another consideration, of course, is how popular a homegrown hero is with the fans -- just kidding! Well, Bloom did extend Barnes... kidding again.

 

Well, it might be a factor.

 

Even Bloom has to realize he cannot be the guy who traded Betts, Benintendi and Bogaerts and let Bradley walk unless he can win another title very quickly. If he does win, he can be known as a Brilliant GM. If he does not, then he his public rep is just as likely to be known as The Guy Who Broke Up the Killer B's for No Reason. And he might not be so hot on being known as Frazee 2.0....

[mvp 78]

The Bogey/Jeter comparison is spot on. Both had good hands and limited range and both, obviously, were/are very good hitters.

 

Jeter: -6.2 UZR/150

Xander: 0.3 UZR/150

 

C'mon man.

[mvp 78]

Jeter: highest fWAR season was 2009 at 6.7

Xander: highest fWAR season was 2019 at 6.8

 

Therefore, Xander is as good as Jeter offensively BUT better than Jeter defensively by far.

[notin]

Jeter: -6.2 UZR/150

Xander: 0.3 UZR/150

 

C'mon man.

 

Seriously?

 

You compared Bogaerts through age 29 to Jeter though age 40?

 

C'mon man!

[moonslav59]

The Bogey/Jeter comparison is spot on. Both had good hands and limited range and both, obviously, were/are very good hitters.

 

Jeter had very good hands and an accurate arm. He did well on relay throws, too, but the amount of plays not made by short-ranged SSs is staggering.

 

I find it hard for any Sox fan not to realize by watching our opponent's SS rob our batters of hit after hit after hit, some times multiple times per game, and not think, "Hmmm, how come I only see Bogey do that a couple times a year?"

 

I guess it's sort of like the CERA issue, it's hard to compare apples to oranges. This player plays behind a staff that strikes out more batters, of lets up less ground balls or less difficult ground balls, so how can we know. To me, my eye test came first. I didn't start out thinking certain players had limited range. I noticed it first, then went and looked at the numbers. Have I been wrong? Yes, but most of the time, the numbers back up my observations and the observations of the UZR/150 trained and calibrated people, plus the fielding bible people do, too.

 

The people who do UZR/150 speak of the need for large sample sizes- meaning larger than one to two seasons as being needed, especially for players who play positions where little action occurs (like the OF). Bogey has had some decent UZR/150 seasons, and he's even been plus- some very slightly above zero- for 4 straight years, despite being negative on their range factor every year. For this, I have said I will not argue with anyone saying he is close to "average," but I will argue with anyone saying "above average on defense."

 

He has not only been negative in DRS every season, his overall DRS is rock bottom in nearly any large sample size time frame you can come up with.

 

From the time he became our SS to today, he has the following rankings:

 

UZR/150:

21 out of 41 SSs with 2500 innings at SS since '14. (Average)

19 out of 35 with 3,000+ innings (Slightly Below Average) 34th/35 in Range

18 out of 33 with 3500+

 

50th out of 50 in DRS among all SSs with 2,000 innings at SS since '14.

Let's look at just the past 4 years- you know, the ones where he's been slightly plus in UZR/150, to see if he has gotten any better...

 

NOPE!

 

34th out of 34 SS's with 1500 innings since 2018 in DRA at -26.

 

So, maybe average in UZR/150- maybe. Worst in DRS.

 

How is thinking he's below average a poor assessment of his defensive skills?

 

Since when is just making the plays on balls hit within 10 feet of a player all that is expected?

 

Even worse, how is just doing that deserve a better than average on defense label?

 

Please don't confuse my opinion with saying he is an overall below average SS. He is far better than the average, but his defense has to be taken into consideration when considering re-structuring his contract or re-signing him to more than $20M/yr after 2022.

 

I admit, I have a bias towards great plus defenders at SS (and CF, C and somewhat at 3B, RF and 2B.)

 

Bogey is not a plus defender, IMO. If you think he is, I think you are wrong.

 

If you think he's average or slightly below average, I won't argue, but I think he's about 18th at best and maybe 26th at worst- just by the numbers. My observations say bottom third tier (21-30th.)

 

[moonslav59]

Jeter: -6.2 UZR/150

Xander: 0.3 UZR/150

 

C'mon man.

 

Both were dead last or close to it in DRS over almost any sample size period chosen during their careers.

 

Truth or lie?

[moonslav59]

Seriously?

 

You compared Bogaerts through age 29 to Jeter though age 40?

 

C'mon man!

 

Up to age 29:

 

Jeter:

-2.4 UZR/150 (21st out of 29)

-13 DRS (29th out of 29)

 

Bogey

+0.3 UZR/150 (17th out of 32)

-55 DRS (32nd out of 32)

[notin]

Up to age 29:

 

Jeter:

-2.4 UZR/150 (21st out of 29)

-13 DRS (29th out of 29)

 

Bogey

+0.3 UZR/150 (17th out of 32)

-55 DRS (32nd out of 32)

 

Good.

 

But of course, UZR is evaluated against league average, so it also depends on which shortstop played in league with better counterparts.

 

And really, I’m not sure which one did. Through age 29, Jeter played in a league where teams were just starting to get premium offense from the SS position, but Bogaerts played his career where the curve was literally destroyed by Andrelton Simmons…

[moonslav59]

Good.

 

But of course, UZR is evaluated against league average, so it also depends on which shortstop played in league with better counterparts.

 

And really, I’m not sure which one did. Through age 29, Jeter played in a league where teams were just starting to get premium offense from the SS position, but Bogaerts played his career where the curve was literally destroyed by Andrelton Simmons…

 

All true, but the point that both SSs had horrific range numbers while being okay at making the routine plays makes them good comps to each other is strong.

[mvp 78]

Seriously?

 

You compared Bogaerts through age 29 to Jeter though age 40?

 

C'mon man!

 

Jeter age 28: -0.9 dWAR

Xander age 28: 0.3 dWAR

 

Xander's dWAR is better. He's a better defensive player.

 

C'mon man.

[notin]

Jeter age 28: -0.9 dWAR

Xander age 28: 0.3 dWAR

 

Xander's dWAR is better. He's a better defensive player.

 

C'mon man.

 

I never argued with the conclusion, but your previous comp was made a bit irrelevant by the glaring age difference…

[moonslav59]

Jeter age 28: -0.9 dWAR

Xander age 28: 0.3 dWAR

 

Xander's dWAR is better. He's a better defensive player.

 

C'mon man.

 

I do think Bogey is a better defensive SS than Jeter, but I think Jeter is the worst long-time defensive SS I've ever seen, so it's not really a feather in XB's cap.

 

Bogey's DRS numbers are shockingly bad.

[Old Red]

Do you actually think his agent, whose name rhymes with Scott Boras, will advise him to not opt out and therefore delay his free agency until he is 33 years old and will probably cost him about $50-100 mill when all is said and done?

 

I think Bogey called the shots last time, because he likes Boston unlike Betts, and wanted to stay unlike Betts. It’s just a question now if he still wants to stay. If he doesn’t then trade him after the season.

[notin]

I think Bogey called the shots last time, because he likes Boston unlike Betts, and wanted to stay unlike Betts. It’s just a question now if he still wants to stay. If he doesn’t then trade him after the season.

 

Ok, Bogaerts ALWAYS gets to call the shots. It’s 100% his decision. But when Boston made the offer, Boras undoubtedly advised him one way or the other. It’s actually possible that Boras is the one who got the opt out in the contract in the first place. (This makes a ton of sense because Dombrowski is surely not dumb enough to put an opt out clause into a discount-valued contract.)

[moonslav59]

IMO, the only ways Bogey stays in Boston beyond 2022 are...

 

1) He extends before the end of the season.

2) He becomes a FA by opting out and then signs with us as a FA.

 

Quick question, if he opts out, can we offer him a QO?

 

I guess that might be a third was he stays, but I doubt he accepts the QO.

[mvp 78]

Ok, Bogaerts ALWAYS gets to call the shots. It’s 100% his decision. But when Boston made the offer, Boras undoubtedly advised him one way or the other. It’s actually possible that Boras is the one who got the opt out in the contract in the first place. (This makes a ton of sense because Dombrowski is surely not dumb enough to put an opt out clause into a discount-valued contract.)

 

He seems to like playing with Devers. Extend Devers this offseason. Then reach out to Xander and see if he wants to stay longer too.

[notin]

He seems to like playing with Devers. Extend Devers this offseason. Then reach out to Xander and see if he wants to stay longer too.

 

Both are good plans…

[moonslav59]

Both are good plans…

 

Would you talk to either one about changing positions before offering an extension?

 

If not, would you consider moving positions on on one or both after an extension?

 

Also, if you had to move one, which one would it be and where would you move them to?

[mvp 78]

Would you talk to either one about changing positions before offering an extension?

 

If not, would you consider moving positions on on one or both after an extension?

 

Also, if you had to move one, which one would it be and where would you move them to?

 

Is Xander's profile better at 2b or 3b? If Xander is a better fit at 3b, you need to move both players. I would hold off until there was a suitable SS replacement though (Mayer). Eventually, Devers would be LF/DH IMO.

[moonslav59]

Is Xander's profile better at 2b or 3b? If Xander is a better fit at 3b, you need to move both players. I would hold off until there was a suitable SS replacement though (Mayer). Eventually, Devers would be LF/DH IMO.

 

To me, SS is a very important defensive position, so even if Bogey is not all that great at 2B or SS, then it is still a plus moving him off SS.

 

Of course, that assumes we add a better defensive SS without killing the offense by the differential we've gained on offense. If we moved Bogey to 2B, we'd be essentially replacing Arroyo's 2B bat with whoever we get at SS. If we move Devers to 1B to make room for Bogey at 3B, I agree, it gets more complicated and difficult to assess the gains, and the SS we add will have for his offensive comp: Dalbec/Casas not Arroyo.

 

We could sign Semien to play 2B in 2022, and then move him to SS. if Bogey bolts, or just swap them in 2022.