A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

The contract extension with Bogaerts was a fine piece of work by Dombrowski. As a fan, I don't like the opt out, but it was all part of the deal.

[moonslav59]

The contract extension with Bogaerts was a fine piece of work by Dombrowski. As a fan, I don't like the opt out, but it was all part of the deal.

 

He doesn't sign for that amount without the buy out, so it was the best we could get, agreed.

 

We have some big choices coming up- some by players- some by us.

 

JD Opt out, keep or trade

Schwarber opt out, re-signor not

ERod, QO or not, accepts QO or not

Vaz, option or not, extend or not or trade

Bogey opt out, keep or trade

Kike, extend or lose after 2022

Eovaldi, extend or lose after 2022

Devers extend or not

 

[Old Red]

I'm not sure I'd offer $174/6 either, but I think that is a fair FA market number.

 

We need to find out what he wants, and if we don't think we'll match it, I think trading him becomes more than 50% likely.

 

We could do him a favor by waiting for the deadline, so he can't get the QO, but we need to think about maximizing return- not doing anyone any favors.

 

I've been harsh on Bogey's D, but they guy can hit. He's always been a clear and big net plus in my book. I'd hate to see him go, but not as much as I hated saying good bye to Betts.

 

I've come around to thinking letting Betts go was the right thing to do, and that is making me think trading Bogey could very well be the right thing to do, this winter.

 

This is not to say I want to just hand him away for the best offer. If the best offer is not good, then wait for the deadline or take the comp pick and money saved, next winter and go large on someone else.

 

I like Bogey too, and I think he wants to stay too unlike Betts, so we really didn’t let Betts go, because he wasn’t staying anyway, so the Sox made him a token offer knowing he wasn’t going to take it. Bogey is not a gold glove, and eventually will have to move to third.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Old Red

[Old Red]

He doesn't sign for that amount without the buy out, so it was the best we could get, agreed.

 

We have some big choices coming up- some by players- some by us.

 

JD Opt out, keep or trade

Schwarber opt out, re-signor not

ERod, QO or not, accepts QO or not

Vaz, option or not, extend or not or trade

Bogey opt out, keep or trade

Kike, extend or lose after 2022

Eovaldi, extend or lose after 2022

Devers extend or not

 

 

Could be a pretty much whole new team 2 years from now.

[moonslav59]

I like Bogey too, and I think he wants to stay too unlike Betts, so we really didn’t let Betts go, because he wasn’t staying anyway, so the Sox made him a token offer knowing he wasn’t going to take it. Bogey is not a gold glove, and eventually will have to move to third.

 

If Bogey moves to 3B, we'll have a logjam at 1B/DH: Devers, Dalbec & Casas.

 

I guess we shouldn't worry about that until it happens, and maybe one can play LF, but if it comes to Bogey vs Devers, I choose Devers.

[moonslav59]

Could be a pretty much whole new team 2 years from now.

 

...and a damn good one, too!

[Old Red]

If Bogey moves to 3B, we'll have a logjam at 1B/DH: Devers, Dalbec & Casas.

 

I guess we shouldn't worry about that until it happens, and maybe one can play LF, but if it comes to Bogey vs Devers, I choose Devers.

 

Don’t worry about the logjam at 3B. If both Bogey, and Raffy both stay, and Bogey moved to third then Raffy could go to first like Youk did, and even Boomer Scott who turned out pretty well there. If that was to happen I wouldn’t worry about Dalbec, and Casas is just a prospect at this moment

[moonslav59]

Don’t worry about the logjam at 3B. If both Bogey, and Raffy both stay, and Bogey moved to third then Raffy could go to first like Youk did, and even Boomer Scott who turned out pretty well there. If that was to happen I wouldn’t worry about Dalbec, and Casas is just a prospect at this moment

 

I said logjam at 1B not 3B, and I also said maybe we shouldn't worry.

Edited October 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I said logjam at 1B not 3B, and maybe we shouldn't worry.

 

Sorry. There is a lot that can happen, between now, and then, and probably will, and like I keep saying at the moment the Sox not having a productive farm system makes everything, more difficult.

[moonslav59]

Sorry. There is a lot that can happen, between now, and then, and probably will, and like I keep saying at the moment the Sox not having a productive farm system makes everything, more difficult.

 

I can't disagree, but the farm is getting there.

 

We added Dalbec, Houck, Whitlock and Duran, in the last 1.5 seasons, so it's not like it has been useless.

 

We have a couple guys looking to help next year: Casas and Seabold- maybe more.

 

It's a long way to Mayer, but maybe Bello and some others add some value between.

 

We certainly look better than 1-2 years ago.

[Old Red]

I can't disagree, but the farm is getting there.

 

We added Dalbec, Houck, Whitlock and Duran, in the last 1.5 seasons, so it's not like it has been useless.

 

We have a couple guys looking to help next year: Casas and Seabold- maybe more.

 

It's a long way to Mayer, but maybe Bello and some others add some value between.

 

We certainly look better than 1-2 years ago.

 

I agree, and hopefully Duran pans out, but at this time he’s a huge question mark going into next year.

[moonslav59]

Devers forevers!

 

Lock him up!

 

ASAP!

[Larry Cook]

Devers forevers!

 

Lock him up!

 

ASAP!

 

Amen brother! Bogey and devers are the cornerstones of this team. Lock them up!

 

We can fill in the rest of the roster with guys the baseball analytics dept likes!

[Nick]

Everyone is replaceable....thinking otherwise will get you into trouble.

 

G Cole has 7 years remaining at $36M per year. He has full no trade clause.

 

Was he worth $36M this year? Yankees got into the Wildcard Game and then lost with Cole pitching.

 

I trust that Bloom will field a competitive teams going forward in Boston, with or without Xander, Devers, JD, Sale, etc, etc. New stars always will be on the horizon.

[a700hitter]

I've already admitted I was wrong about the length of the "cliff," but I know how much you love hearing me admit mistakes.

 

I miscalculated DD'd ability to draft well, despite bad picks. (I admitted that, too.)

 

I miscalculated Henry finding a GM like Bloom, who can work wonders with a relatively small winter spending budget. (I was right about Henry making resetting the tax a high priority that could, as it had in the past, be more than just for one year.)

 

I miscalculated how other AL teams did not keep building up their teams. The Astros let Springer and others go; the Yanks sat on their hands, and the Rays, as always, traded away some of their key pieces. In short, the whole AL took a step back, which lessened our need for a long step forward.

 

I do find it funny, that the guy who perhaps predicted the worst finish by the 2021 Sox out of any poster here, now acts like he did not think we were going to be bad for more than the 60 game season.

 

I was wrong about the length of the cliff- by a lot. I thought it would be 2-3 years long. The horrific finish to 2020 helped us get Mayer and others, so that helps the longer view. The resetting of the budget, and the loss of the sunken costs like Pedey and Price helped. (I do remember you being upset we traded Price.)

 

I'll say it again to make your day: I was wrong.

I had already admitted that I was wrong about 2021 a long time ago. I wasn’t asking you the question to get an admission from you. It was honest curiosity to see if you think the cliff is yet to come and maybe 2021 is an aberration. Of course, you think that I am just trying to stick it to you. I should have known better than to try to engage you in a civil discussion. My bad.

[moonslav59]

I had already admitted that I was wrong about 2021 a long time ago. I wasn’t asking you the question to get an admission from you. It was honest curiosity to see if you think the cliff is yet to come and maybe 2021 is an aberration. Of course, you think that I am just trying to stick it to you. I should have known better than to try to engage you in a civil discussion. My bad.

 

Come on, 700. Be honest with yourself. You read just about all of my posts. Have I in any way hinted at the thought this team is getting worse?

 

You know the answer. What other reason would you ask me about that?

 

And, please, stop with the civil discussion nonsense. You continually take attacks on your positions as personal attacks and go right into name-calling mode or this passive-aggressive nonsense.

 

Just recently, someone called a position you believed "pathetic." They did not call you pathetic, but you launched right into name-calling, like you have done so many times. It's rarely "civil" with you, unless someone is agreeing with you.

[Nick]

3 Questions Yankees Must Answer....I love New York Post

 

1. Why are the position players not retaining value? Bird, Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Frazier and Miguel Andujar all had promising early stints. Only Judge (when healthy) has maintained a high standard and he will be entering his walk year.

 

In Sanchez’s early years, the consensus from within — among teammates and officials — was that he would be the best hitter on the team. Note, hitter. Not just power bat. How did he go from that to hitting .201 over the last four years? Torres was an All-Star in his age 21 and 22 seasons. In his age-23 and 24 years the past two seasons his OPS-plus is 5 percent under the league average. The plummet is so severe that the Yankees have to contemplate whether they will even tender contracts to Andujar, Frazier and Sanchez.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

2. Why does a team with a consistently large payroll have such deficiencies in areas like defense and baserunning? Having the Yankees’ money — even in years in which they have sunk just under the luxury tax — should afford variety. Instead, the Yankees kept doubling down on so many hulking, righty power hitters, for example, leaving little room on the roster or within the budget for athleticism and diversity.

 

There was investment in dollars or significant prospects for the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks, an injury-prone player who has stayed injured since receiving his seven-year, $70 million pact, and Joey Gallo, who brought a lefty bat but also a low-average, high-strikeout style that already was bedeviling a 2021 team not adept at sustaining offense without home runs.

 

Luke Voit is symbolic of this stretch in Yankees history.

 

In many ways, Luke Voit defines this era for the Yankees. They have been excellent at uncovering undervalued assets elsewhere such as Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Gio Urshela, Chad Green and Clay Holmes. Voit fits into this category. But even while succeeding, Voit exacerbated Yankee issues around right-handedness, poor defense, poor athleticism and dubious ability to stay healthy with his combination of hulking body and ferocious swing. He led the AL in homers in the shortened 2020 campaign. It would have been an ideal time to try to maximize a return.

 

But I sense the Yankees are always obsessed with the individual deal and not the makeup it will have on the overall fabric of the roster. They might have received less return than desired for Voit, but how they used his salary and roster spot would be part of the return. Instead, he becomes another player the Yankees have to decide whether they tender or not.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

3. Why aren’t they getting more homegrown difference-makers? Some of this reflects picking in the latter half of the draft or having limits on international spending. Still this is probably the best alignment the Yankees could form from 2021 players whose first pro contract was with them: catcher-Kyle Higashioka. First base-Luis Torrens. Second base-Nick Solak. Shortstop-Tyler Wade. Third base-Thairo Estrada. Left Field-Ben Gamel. Center Field-Brett Gardner. Right Field-Judge. DH-Sanchez.

[mvp 78]

3 Questions Yankees Must Answer....I love New York Post

 

1. Why are the position players not retaining value? Bird, Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Frazier and Miguel Andujar all had promising early stints. Only Judge (when healthy) has maintained a high standard and he will be entering his walk year.

 

In Sanchez’s early years, the consensus from within — among teammates and officials — was that he would be the best hitter on the team. Note, hitter. Not just power bat. How did he go from that to hitting .201 over the last four years? Torres was an All-Star in his age 21 and 22 seasons. In his age-23 and 24 years the past two seasons his OPS-plus is 5 percent under the league average. The plummet is so severe that the Yankees have to contemplate whether they will even tender contracts to Andujar, Frazier and Sanchez.

 

Yanks need to treat their guys like the Rays and deal them when their value is the highest.

[Nick]

Yanks need to treat their guys like the Rays and deal them when their value is the highest.

 

Two or three years ago some thought they were building a dynasty (Yankees)........similarly to Chicago Cubs when everyone agreed they won the World Series ONE YEAR EARLY. But their 'dynasty' never materialized even with genius Theo on the throne.

 

I'm on board with Bloom. I think he's a shrewd trader. He really doesn't get hung up on 'star-power'.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

3. Why aren’t they getting more homegrown difference-makers? Some of this reflects picking in the latter half of the draft or having limits on international spending. Still this is probably the best alignment the Yankees could form from 2021 players whose first pro contract was with them: catcher-Kyle Higashioka. First base-Luis Torrens. Second base-Nick Solak. Shortstop-Tyler Wade. Third base-Thairo Estrada. Left Field-Ben Gamel. Center Field-Brett Gardner. Right Field-Judge. DH-Sanchez.

 

For the Sox:

C Vaz

1B Casas

2B Iglesias

SS Xander

3B Raffy

RF Matheny

CF Duran

LF Shaw

DH Dalbec

[Nick]

Also draft order only impacts round 1. I get it that you can acquire 'an elite' player picking say top 10. If you're picking 30th, you are essentially forfeiting your first round pick but you get the FIRST PICK each round starting Round 2. That's what I'd say to my scouts. Quit bitching. Go find me a diamond in the rough. Trey Balls anyone?

[Old Red]

For the Sox:

C Vaz

1B Casas

2B Iglesias

SS Xander

3B Raffy

RF Matheny

CF Duran

LF Shaw

DH Dalbec

 

1B Scott

2B Andrews

SS Rico

3B Foy

LF Yaz

CF Reggie Smith

RF Tony C

 

SP Lonborg

RP Sparky Lyle

 

Now that was a farm system.

[illinoisredsox]

1B Scott

2B Andrews

SS Rico

3B Foy

LF Yaz

CF Reggie Smith

RF Tony C

 

SP Lonborg

RP Sparky Lyle

 

Now that was a farm system.

 

Russ Gibson and Mike Ryan splitting time behind the plate?

[Old Red]

Russ Gibson and Mike Ryan splitting time behind the plate?

 

Yes I forgot the catcher. Of course the Lynne, Rice, Fisk, Burrelson, Cecil Cooper, Dewey Evans, Bill Lee, and the holdovers Yaz, and Rico was the best talent, but the 67 team was special, and started Red Sox Nation.

[notin]

For the Sox:

C Vaz

1B Casas

2B Iglesias

SS Xander

3B Raffy

RF Matheny

CF Duran

LF Shaw

DH Dalbec

 

Some of these might not be positive difference makers…

[moonslav59]

Some of these might not be positive difference makers…

 

If they aren't, they may not get a shot to have a negative impact- like say Duran did, this season.

[mvp 78]

Some of these might not be positive difference makers…

 

Would that team beat up on the Yankees farm system team?

[moonslav59]

A point also needs to be made about the impact of our younger players on the 2021 season, and how that should be viewed as a sign of a brighter future.

 

.793 Age 25 and under

.767 Ages 26-30

.789 Ages 31-35

 

Age Player OPS

24 Devers .890 (Best on team and not yet at prime years)

25 Verdugo .777

26 Dalbec .792

26 Arroyo .769

28 Bogey .863 (Peak of prime in '22)

29 Renfroe .816 & Kike .786 (in peak prime)

 

Pitching:

ERA/OPS Against Age

3.10/.659 25 and under

4.73/.763 26-30

4.18/.761 31-35

 

24 DHern 3.38 (40 IP)

25 Whitlock 1.96 (73)

25 Houck 3.52 (69)

28 Pivetta 4.53 (155)

28 Davis, Rios, Taylor