A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

We’ve already gone over the Cora thing many times, and just because I wouldn’t have hired him back that doesn’t mean I don’t like him, and certainly don’t hate him. Would you say the same thing about Cora if he had come back, and managed the Yankees instead? I would have said the same thing about anybody in that situation. There is a hoody down at Foxboro I would say the same thing about.Getting back to Cora like I said before the players like him, and play for him, and I’m fine with him coming back.

 

Now you are right on about me, and the state of baseball, and how the game is played. To me if a starter can’t go 6 innings he’s useless, and when starters are pulled, because something might happen if they face a batter for a third time is just crazy like EO against the Yankees, because he gave up a slow bouncer to SS he had to come out, and the best example was Snell in the WS last year. Openers to start games, and bringing in a different pitcher every inning is not baseball to me.

 

I said Sale was babied, because who he pitched against for the most part, and not how many innings he threw. I don’t think 2 times through the order is the only thing on why a pitcher doesn’t do as well, but also the amount of pitchers thrown through 5 innings.

 

Thank you for a thoughtful reply. I'm curious about why you seemed to change your mind on bringing Cora back, next season. You seemed to hint you "were not alone" in not wanting him to return. Was it the playoff run?

 

So, I wasn't all that wrong about you thinking starters are "babied"- not just Sale. Maybe "babied" is too strong a word, but I think you said something like "take the kid gloves off" with Sale, which is sort of a separate issue than pulling most starters way earlier than the old days. It seemed, to me, like you often took the position to leave starters in longer, and I did find one quote from you on Houck, so I don't tink my jumping to the conclusion that you think starters are coddled, babied or some other lesser harsh word was all that far off from your stated position above.

 

I do make inferences about posters positions that are not always correct. I shouldn't do that, and I get upset, sometimes, when people do it to me, so I should be more understanding and attentive to myself doing that.

 

It took me a long time to even start paying attention to who said what on this site. I used to just respond to posts and not really pay much attention to the poster and what his positions had been up to that post. I came from another site many years ago, and kinda ignored the personalities for a long time.

 

I know I come off sounding authoritative and righteous, but I don't mean to be that way. I often don't take the time to say, "In my opinion..." or "I think..." but I guess I assume everybody know what anybody says is just their opinion. I also use stats and data to support my positions, knowing full well other stats and data are out there that refute my claims, but somehow, I think people think that my attaching stats makes it sound like I am stating a fact that cannot be debated.

 

For example, I did not intend my statement about Houck having some of the best starter stats on the Sox to mean I felt he was the best starter we had, or that he never had a bad start. I know you weren't implying he was bad, and to some extent almost all pitchers are "inconsistent," at times, but I almost always view players in comparative terms. Maybe I'm wrong for that, and I expect others to see that "my way." I just think singling out Houck as being inconsistent was saying something bad about him, hence my use of the term "bad-mouthing." To me, he's been one of our most consistent starters, although his sample size is smaller than most. He's never had a game where he let up more than 3 runs. Granted, he's let up 3 in 3.2 IP, once, so I'm not saying he's had 13 good starts, but he's been pretty consistent- compared to others.

 

I got into a similar argument with iortiz about Barnes being a better than average RP'er before 2021. He showed his WAR numbers and called him something I disagreed with, and he did not agree with my position that when you compared his numbers from 2017-2020 to other RP'ers in that time frame he was a top 25% reliever in many categories and top 50% in just about every category- so to me, that showed he was "clearly" above average. I went on and on- as did he, when it was clear we just saw things differently. I should have just let it go, as I should with some of the crap we beef about.

 

[Old Red]

Thank you for a thoughtful reply. I'm curious about why you seemed to change your mind on bringing Cora back, next season. You seemed to hint you "were not alone" in not wanting him to return. Was it the playoff run?

 

So, I wasn't all that wrong about you thinking starters are "babied"- not just Sale. Maybe "babied" is too strong a word, but I think you said something like "take the kid gloves off" with Sale, which is sort of a separate issue than pulling most starters way earlier than the old days. It seemed, to me, like you often took the position to leave starters in longer, and I did find one quote from you on Houck, so I don't tink my jumping to the conclusion that you think starters are coddled, babied or some other lesser harsh word was all that far off from your stated position above.

 

I do make inferences about posters positions that are not always correct. I shouldn't do that, and I get upset, sometimes, when people do it to me, so I should be more understanding and attentive to myself doing that.

 

It took me a long time to even start paying attention to who said what on this site. I used to just respond to posts and not really pay much attention to the poster and what his positions had been up to that post. I came from another site many years ago, and kinda ignored the personalities for a long time.

 

I know I come off sounding authoritative and righteous, but I don't mean to be that way. I often don't take the time to say, "In my opinion..." or "I think..." but I guess I assume everybody know what anybody says is just their opinion. I also use stats and data to support my positions, knowing full well other stats and data are out there that refute my claims, but somehow, I think people think that my attaching stats makes it sound like I am stating a fact that cannot be debated.

 

For example, I did not intend my statement about Houck having some of the best starter stats on the Sox to mean I felt he was the best starter we had, or that he never had a bad start. I know you weren't implying he was bad, and to some extent almost all pitchers are "inconsistent," at times, but I almost always view players in comparative terms. Maybe I'm wrong for that, and I expect others to see that "my way." I just think singling out Houck as being inconsistent was saying something bad about him, hence my use of the term "bad-mouthing." To me, he's been one of our most consistent starters, although his sample size is smaller than most. He's never had a game where he let up more than 3 runs. Granted, he's let up 3 in 3.2 IP, once, so I'm not saying he's had 13 good starts, but he's been pretty consistent- compared to others.

 

I got into a similar argument with iortiz about Barnes being a better than average RP'er before 2021. He showed his WAR numbers and called him something I disagreed with, and he did not agree with my position that when you compared his numbers from 2017-2020 to other RP'ers in that time frame he was a top 25% reliever in many categories and top 50% in just about every category- so to me, that showed he was "clearly" above average. I went on and on- as did he, when it was clear we just saw things differently. I should have just let it go, as I should with some of the crap we beef about.

 

 

I don’t know when I said I was fine with Cora coming back, but I think it was before the playoff run, and it might even been during those last 9 games of the regular season when things wasn’t going so good, we’ve gone back, and fourth so many times I’m not sure.

Sale was in a different situation coming off TJ with the kid gloves treatment, and i wasn’t singling Houck out with the inconsistent comment, but only because it was talked about him being in the rotation next year. With all the ups, and downs of the regular season you could say the team itself was inconsistent, but right now they are winning, so most everything looks good.

 

I like stats, and read all of yours, but I just think all the analytics they use today is going way overboard. Like I said before it is always nice to go back, and fourth with you.

[Old Red]

Back to 2022...

 

Answer these questions, if you dare:

 

1) If you could trade JD and pay $3M and then sign Schwarber for $16M (basically breaking even with JD's contract), would you do it?

 

2) Would you offer ERod an $18.6M QO?

 

3) If you offered Bogey a fair extension, and he said no, do you look into trading him?

 

4) Do you bring back Iggy at $6M/2?

 

5) Do you bring back Robles at $5M/2?

 

6) Do you try to sign a top starter or RP'er, assuming you can only get one?

 

7) Do you trust Dalbec to be our FT 1Bman, at least until Casas is ready?

 

8) Do you think about moving Bogey (3B/2B) or Devers(1B/OF/DH) to another position?

 

My answers:

1) yes

2) yes

3) yes

4) yes

5) yes

6) SP

7) yes (fingers crossed- knowing picking up a cheap 1B is usually easy))

8) no, not this winter

 

 

I agree with most of this, but would have to know how long the Schwaber contract would be for.

Need a backup L handed 1B

[moonslav59]

I don’t know when I said I was fine with Cora coming back, but I think it was before the playoff run, and it might even been during those last 9 games of the regular season when things wasn’t going so good, we’ve gone back, and fourth so many times I’m not sure.

Sale was in a different situation coming off TJ with the kid gloves treatment, and i wasn’t singling Houck out with the inconsistent comment, but only because it was talked about him being in the rotation next year. With all the ups, and downs of the regular season you could say the team itself was inconsistent, but right now they are winning, so most everything looks good.

 

I like stats, and read all of yours, but I just think all the analytics they use today is going way overboard. Like I said before it is always nice to go back, and fourth with you.

 

I hope we can bury the hatchet and move on. I was out of line, a few times.

 

I do think the analytics are going overboard, too, but I can't blame teams for using them to improve outcomes (like defensive shifts, knowing who can't handle 3rd time through line-ups, looking at one-to-one match ups between a pitcher and a batter, etc...

 

To me, the old traditional style of the game seemed more pure and enjoyable to watch, but even back then, changes were always occurring. Hell, they even changed the mound height after 1968. The role of the pen and then the closer has been changing for 5 decades. Line-up strategies, bunting, stealing bases, ...

[moonslav59]

I agree with most of this, but would have to know how long the Schwaber contract would be for.

Need a backup L handed 1B

 

I'm thinking Schwarber might get $60M/4 or $70M/5. If the NL gets a DH, it might be more.

 

BTW, I'm not good at projecting contracts or arb numbers.

[mvp 78]

I was out of line

 

The first step is admitting you have a posting problem.

[moonslav59]

Need a backup L handed 1B

 

Casas?

 

BTW, Dalbec ended up at .730 v RHPs, and while that is pretty bad for a 1Bman, his .763 career number over his first 327 PAs vs righties is not bad for anyone's start to a ML career.

 

I do think insurance is wise, but we might not have enough money or a roster spot for someone like Shaw.

 

If we swap out Schwarber for JD, and try to get KS to workout hard at 1B over the winter, maybe he would hold us over if and until Casas is ready.

[moonslav59]

The first step is admitting you have a posting problem.

 

I've done that several times.

 

What's the second step in the 12?

[mvp 78]

I've done that several times.

 

What's the second step in the 12?

 

I've never made it to the first step myself.

[mvp 78]

It's that "a Power greater than yourself could restore your sanity."

 

It's me. I'm that Power.

[Old Red]

I hope we can bury the hatchet and move on. I was out of line, a few times.

 

I do think the analytics are going overboard, too, but I can't blame teams for using them to improve outcomes (like defensive shifts, knowing who can't handle 3rd time through line-ups, looking at one-to-one match ups between a pitcher and a batter, etc...

 

To me, the old traditional style of the game seemed more pure and enjoyable to watch, but even back then, changes were always occurring. Hell, they even changed the mound height after 1968. The role of the pen and then the closer has been changing for 5 decades. Line-up strategies, bunting, stealing bases, ...

 

Well said, and now on to Houston.

[Old Red]

I'm thinking Schwarber might get $60M/4 or $70M/5. If the NL gets a DH, it might be more.

 

BTW, I'm not good at projecting contracts or arb numbers.

 

If they could do those contract numbers then I’d be fine with it, but I just didn’t think he deserved a JD like contract, because he’s never been a run producer like JD, or hit much for an average with a 266 high.

[moonslav59]

It's that "a Power greater than yourself could restore your sanity."

 

It's me. I'm that Power.

 

No wonder I can never get past step one!

[Nick]

The first step is admitting you have a posting problem.

 

I think others are

 

Losing weight

Eating vegetables

Less red meat

Excercise

Quit smoking

 

I think there are couple more things you can do...

[Nick]

John Henry says Boston Red Sox are ‘ahead of schedule,’ believes team can win World Series: ‘Let’s find out’

 

I wonder what he meant by 'ahead of schedule'.

 

Does he mean we have younger players not yet ready to contribute in the majors?

 

Does he mean we have young major leaguers that hasn't peaked?

 

Does he mean we are adding more free agents in the future?

 

If he knows he doesn't have the team he wants now, what is he waiting for to get there?

[moonslav59]

John Henry says Boston Red Sox are ‘ahead of schedule,’ believes team can win World Series: ‘Let’s find out’

 

I wonder what he meant by 'ahead of schedule'.

 

Does he mean we have younger players not yet ready to contribute in the majors?

 

Does he mean we have young major leaguers that hasn't peaked?

 

Does he mean we are adding more free agents in the future?

 

If he knows he doesn't have the team he wants now, what is he waiting for to get there?

 

I think he meant the brain trust was thinking the WS was a year or more away.

 

That is likely why he limited the spending.

[a700hitter]

I've done that several times.

 

What's the second step in the 12?

Stop posting?

[mvp 78]

John Henry says Boston Red Sox are ‘ahead of schedule,’ believes team can win World Series: ‘Let’s find out’

 

I wonder what he meant by 'ahead of schedule'.

 

Does he mean we have younger players not yet ready to contribute in the majors?

 

Does he mean we have young major leaguers that hasn't peaked?

 

Does he mean we are adding more free agents in the future?

 

If he knows he doesn't have the team he wants now, what is he waiting for to get there?

 

They didn't expect to compete this year.

[Bellhorn04]

They didn't expect to compete this year.

 

Or didn't expect to make it as far as the LCS.

[moonslav59]

I have to think, if they thought we had an excellent chance to win it all this year, Henry would have allowed Bloom to spend more.

 

Who knows? Maybe it wouldn't have helped!

 

Gotta like the character of this club.

[mvp 78]

I have to think, if they thought we had an excellent chance to win it all this year, Henry would have allowed Bloom to spend more.

 

Who knows? Maybe it wouldn't have helped!

 

Gotta like the character of this club.

 

Having a better bullpen would definitely have helped.

[mvp 78]

Or didn't expect to make it as far as the LCS.

 

I think they probably thought they were an 86 win team. They'd be good, but not get into the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

I think they probably thought they were an 86 win team. They'd be good, but not get into the playoffs.

 

That's my guess as well.

[notin]

If they decided spending heavily in a year in which Sale was a potential non-factor, I can understand that. Especially if it was only to put it off for one year…

[moonslav59]

Having a better bullpen would definitely have helped.

 

Helped us get farther than where we are now?

 

Are we sure that Bloom's "extra" pen signings would have done well? Better than Robles, Davis, Brasier...

 

Look at Ottavino & Andriese.

 

Any other signings might have messed with the clubhouse gel, too.

'

We'll never know.

[moonslav59]

If they decided spending heavily in a year in which Sale was a potential non-factor, I can understand that. Especially if it was only to put it off for one year…

 

It's my feeling the plan was always to spend big in 2022.

[notin]

Having a better bullpen would definitely have helped.

 

 

That’s a universal baseball solution that can be applied to every team ever…

[moonslav59]

That’s a universal baseball solution that can be applied to every team ever…

 

The hard part is assembling one. Even if you spend big money on RP'ers, it is a still a crap shoot.

 

Remember when the Rockies signed like 3 big FA RP'ers? I think they all flopped.

 

It's largely hit or miss. Getting quantity works, sometimes, as you hit or miss it until you find 4-6 that work out, but it can lead to a lot of early losses as you work through your long list.

 

We used 37 pitchers, this year, and the make-up of our pen changed radically as did the roles of many of those who remained from day one.

'

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Having a better bullpen would definitely have helped.

 

I can't believe Bloom didn't listen to me and trade for Richard Rodriguez -- who didn't even make the Braves' postseason roster! Can we pick him up off the waiver wire now?

 

So, obviously there were no sure relievers out there -- or in there, anywhere; even top guys like Hader and Hendriks this October. At least I didn't want Kimbrel back, and knew Bloom wouldn't go near that $17 mil contract (someone on MLB radio said the White Sox would be taking Kimbrel's option and trading him this winter... wonder which prospects Chicago will have to add to make that happen).

 

Anyway, kudos to the posters who wanted the Red Sox to acquire Hansel Robles at the deadline.

[mvp 78]

Helped us get farther than where we are now?

 

Are we sure that Bloom's "extra" pen signings would have done well? Better than Robles, Davis, Brasier...

 

Look at Ottavino & Andriese.

 

Any other signings might have messed with the clubhouse gel, too.

'

We'll never know.

 

You are 100% comfortable rolling out this bullpen?