A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Your post was in response to the post: "The last quality starter developed thru the SOX farm was Buchholz."

 

You are correct.

 

Montas does not match that.

 

I guess we can't take credit for ERod or possibly Seabold,if he amounts to anything.

 

If Kopech does well, does he count?

[moonslav59]

Well, Frankie Montas was not as young as Tyler Glasnow (and six other pitchers) were that 2013 season in the South Atlantic League:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=pitch&id=54256e41

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=montas001fra

 

What does this matter?

[moonslav59]

Watching this team in the playoffs is making me feel a lot better about 2022 than I did before, and I was pretty pumped about our chances at improving on 2021.

 

Our biggest losses might be Schwarber, ERod, Iggy, Robles and maybe Ottavino, but losing Pedey's contract and saying good bye to Richards, Perez, Andriese, Marwin, Santana and others looks a lot like addition by subtraction. (Some may view Ottavino that way, too.) Certainly, the totality of our net value lost seems like much less than the money saved. It appears like it's a golden opportunity to use the savings to upgrade 4-6 positions.

 

The next consideration is about beyond 2022.

The Devers & Bogey issues.

The Price contract gone.

Eovaldi, JD, Kike & Vaz team control ending.

(There is not much addition by subtraction here, except for losing Price's sunken cost.)

[Hugh2]

Well, Frankie Montas was not as young as Tyler Glasnow (and six other pitchers) were that 2013 season in the South Atlantic League:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=pitch&id=54256e41

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=montas001fra

 

So, A guy existed younger than him? So what? Does that make him old for the level?

[a700hitter]

Watching this team in the playoffs is making me feel a lot better about 2022 than I did before, and I was pretty pumped about our chances at improving on 2021.

 

Our biggest losses might be Schwarber, ERod, Iggy, Robles and maybe Ottavino, but losing Pedey's contract and saying good bye to Richards, Perez, Andriese, Marwin, Santana and others looks a lot like addition by subtraction. (Some may view Ottavino that way, too.) Certainly, the totality of our net value lost seems like much less than the money saved. It appears like it's a golden opportunity to use the savings to upgrade 4-6 positions.

 

The next consideration is about beyond 2022.

The Devers & Bogey issues.

The Price contract gone.

Eovaldi, JD, Kike & Vaz team control ending.

(There is not much addition by subtraction here, except for losing Price's sunken cost.)

Do you still think a “cliff” is inevitable? I don’t think you can call the bizarre COVID shortened 2020 a cliff, because that season should just be thrown out with it being nothing more than an extended tournament with opt outs for players. And let’s face it the Marlins made the playoffs in 2020, so it was a mockery of a season.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

So people still don't think that Schwarber will get a 100 million dollar contract in the offseason?

 

When I watch his at bats and impact on the offense, I keep thinking he will want to be paid and that someone will pay him.

 

True, he is pretty much a full-time DH and that will hurt his contract value, but he is also young enough that teams will not shy away from a long term deal.

[Bellhorn04]

So people still don't think that Schwarber will get a 100 million dollar contract in the offseason?

 

When I watch his at bats and impact on the offense, I keep thinking he will want to be paid and that someone will pay him.

 

True, he is pretty much a full-time DH and that will hurt his contract value, but he is also young enough that teams will not shy away from a long term deal.

 

I don't think he'll get 100 million, no. He's an excellent offensive weapon, but strictly a DH. And with his body type there are durability concerns. He's a 50-60 million guy at most.

 

What strikes me a little funny is how many people have been sounding anxious to get rid of JD Martinez, who is by any measure a better hitter than Schwarber over their careers.

[moonslav59]

Do you still think a “cliff” is inevitable? I don’t think you can call the bizarre COVID shortened 2020 a cliff, because that season should just be thrown out with it being nothing more than an extended tournament with opt outs for players. And let’s face it the Marlins made the playoffs in 2020, so it was a mockery of a season.

 

I've already admitted I was wrong about the length of the "cliff," but I know how much you love hearing me admit mistakes.

 

I miscalculated DD'd ability to draft well, despite bad picks. (I admitted that, too.)

 

I miscalculated Henry finding a GM like Bloom, who can work wonders with a relatively small winter spending budget. (I was right about Henry making resetting the tax a high priority that could, as it had in the past, be more than just for one year.)

 

I miscalculated how other AL teams did not keep building up their teams. The Astros let Springer and others go; the Yanks sat on their hands, and the Rays, as always, traded away some of their key pieces. In short, the whole AL took a step back, which lessened our need for a long step forward.

 

I do find it funny, that the guy who perhaps predicted the worst finish by the 2021 Sox out of any poster here, now acts like he did not think we were going to be bad for more than the 60 game season.

 

I was wrong about the length of the cliff- by a lot. I thought it would be 2-3 years long. The horrific finish to 2020 helped us get Mayer and others, so that helps the longer view. The resetting of the budget, and the loss of the sunken costs like Pedey and Price helped. (I do remember you being upset we traded Price.)

 

I'll say it again to make your day: I was wrong.

[moonslav59]

I don't think he'll get 100 million, no. He's an excellent offensive weapon, but strictly a DH. And with his body type there are durability concerns. He's a 50-60 million guy at most.

 

What strikes me a little funny is how many people have been sounding anxious to get rid of JD Martinez, who is by any measure a better hitter than Schwarber over their careers.

 

It's about what to expect next year and beyond. Also, there may not be a "beyond" with JD, since he has an opt out and then just 1 year of team control left.

 

I'm a big fan of JDs, and defended him against some "fans" that wanted him demoted in the line-up or even benched when in the middle of a .750 "slump." I think one clown wanted him left off the ALDS roster, but he is showing decline while Schwarber is entering peak prime.

 

I find it problematic to have both, next year, so I have mentioned trading JD several times. I still think the idea could work, depending on how much we have to pay towards JDs contract.

[notin]

So people still don't think that Schwarber will get a 100 million dollar contract in the offseason?

 

When I watch his at bats and impact on the offense, I keep thinking he will want to be paid and that someone will pay him.

 

True, he is pretty much a full-time DH and that will hurt his contract value, but he is also young enough that teams will not shy away from a long term deal.

 

That would be a neat trick.

 

Non-tendered in 2021. $100 millon in 2022.

[notin]

I don't think he'll get 100 million, no. He's an excellent offensive weapon, but strictly a DH. And with his body type there are durability concerns. He's a 50-60 million guy at most.

 

What strikes me a little funny is how many people have been sounding anxious to get rid of JD Martinez, who is by any measure a better hitter than Schwarber over their careers.

 

This makes it fun if you're Schwarber's agent.

 

Like JD, he needs to time his free agency with the arrival of the DH in the NL. But as Schwarber is only 28, he at leat has another chance if he misses.

 

I'd love it if he just took his option with Boston and played here another year, and then hit the market (presumably with a DH in the NL) in 2023. But I have very serious doubts. Now he might take a one year deal somewhere. might even be in Boston. But he is not picking up that option...

[notin]

I don't think he'll get 100 million, no. He's an excellent offensive weapon, but strictly a DH. And with his body type there are durability concerns. He's a 50-60 million guy at most.

 

What strikes me a little funny is how many people have been sounding anxious to get rid of JD Martinez, who is by any measure a better hitter than Schwarber over their careers.

 

While I don't want JD to go, I can admit I find his situation tough to predict. But I think he is back....

[Nick]

Watching this team in the playoffs is making me feel a lot better about 2022 than I did before, and I was pretty pumped about our chances at improving on 2021.

 

Our biggest losses might be Schwarber, ERod, Iggy, Robles and maybe Ottavino, but losing Pedey's contract and saying good bye to Richards, Perez, Andriese, Marwin, Santana and others looks a lot like addition by subtraction. (Some may view Ottavino that way, too.) Certainly, the totality of our net value lost seems like much less than the money saved. It appears like it's a golden opportunity to use the savings to upgrade 4-6 positions.

 

The next consideration is about beyond 2022.

The Devers & Bogey issues.

The Price contract gone.

Eovaldi, JD, Kike & Vaz team control ending.

(There is not much addition by subtraction here, except for losing Price's sunken cost.)

 

Robles wants to remain with Sox organization. He loves it here. Bloom will make it work.

 

I realize there maybe a one year overlap with JD but Schwarber should be pursued.

 

I'm more and more convinced you attack other team by solid hitting lineup 1-9, not Xander, JD and Devers only as it was at beginning of year. That formula is not sustainable. We won 2018 World Series with mediocre output from Betts (maybe it was for entire post season, can't remember off top of my head).

 

I'm more inclined to go the Rays route and add an impact player (s) for a rental at trade deadline. That requires plethora of young talent.

Edited October 11, 2021 by Nick

[Hugh2]

I've already admitted I was wrong about the length of the "cliff," but I know how much you love hearing me admit mistakes.

 

I miscalculated DD'd ability to draft well, despite bad picks. (I admitted that, too.)

 

I miscalculated Henry finding a GM like Bloom, who can work wonders with a relatively small winter spending budget. (I was right about Henry making resetting the tax a high priority that could, as it had in the past, be more than just for one year.)

 

I miscalculated how other AL teams did not keep building up their teams. The Astros let Springer and others go; the Yanks sat on their hands, and the Rays, as always, traded away some of their key pieces. In short, the whole AL took a step back, which lessened our need for a long step forward.

 

I do find it funny, that the guy who perhaps predicted the worst finish by the 2021 Sox out of any poster here, now acts like he did not think we were going to be bad for more than the 60 game season.

 

I was wrong about the length of the cliff- by a lot. I thought it would be 2-3 years long. The horrific finish to 2020 helped us get Mayer and others, so that helps the longer view. The resetting of the budget, and the loss of the sunken costs like Pedey and Price helped. (I do remember you being upset we traded Price.)

 

I'll say it again to make your day: I was wrong.

 

You’re forgetting the most important part of the argument here. The whole “cliff” argument was about what could be vs. what will be. Roster building is cyclical, and if done with the future in mind can be done in such a way that your down seasons do not have to be as bad. That’s is precisely what Bloom did by building organizational depth over the past few years. You can be in a “bridge” moment and still competitive. That ideal that the Sox weren’t horrible last year and the year could just be thrown away is ridiculous, but the moves made then and now have created the team we have today. We could have traded away from our minor league depth, and gone over the cap the past couple years to be more competitive, but we did not…..and we are still competitive.

 

The Bloom haters are going crazy and digging for whatever argument they can make.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What strikes me a little funny is how many people have been sounding anxious to get rid of JD Martinez, who is by any measure a better hitter than Schwarber over their careers.

 

It is all about projection, and in the post-steroid era, 34 year olds are nearing a period of decline. JD is just too old now, whereas Schwarber is younger and will be a much better hitter over the next several years. JD is also exhibiting some troubling signs, such as the highest O-Swing% of his career, and he will continue to decline in that area until he is no longer a starting caliber DH. It could happen 3 years from now, it could happen next year, who knows. But we do know that Schwarber is years away from that kind of decline, and that is why it makes all the sense in the world to bring him back.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Red Sox could resign Schwarber and play him at 1b if JD doesn't opt out, and then Schwarber becomes the full time DH in 2023.

[moonslav59]

Robles wants to remain with Sox organization. He loves it here. Bloom will make it work.

 

I realize there maybe a one year overlap with JD but Schwarber should be pursued.

 

I'm more and more convinced you attack other team by solid hitting lineup 1-9, not Xander, JD and Devers only as it was at beginning of year. That formula is not sustainable. We won 2018 World Series with mediocre output from Betts (maybe it was for entire post season, can't remember off top of my head).

 

I'm more inclined to go the Rays route and add an impact player (s) for a rental at trade deadline. That requires plethora of young talent.

 

I'm not against bringing Robles back. I'm just listing players with team control running out.

[moonslav59]

You’re forgetting the most important part of the argument here. The whole “cliff” argument was about what could be vs. what will be. Roster building is cyclical, and if done with the future in mind can be done in such a way that your down seasons do not have to be as bad. That’s is precisely what Bloom did by building organizational depth over the past few years. You can be in a “bridge” moment and still competitive. That ideal that the Sox weren’t horrible last year and the year could just be thrown away is ridiculous, but the moves made then and now have created the team we have today. We could have traded away from our minor league depth, and gone over the cap the past couple years to be more competitive, but we did not…..and we are still competitive.

 

The Bloom haters are going crazy and digging for whatever argument they can make.

 

Well said, and some credit has to go to DD as well. He was working in a tough system that really makes it hard for winning and high spending teams to even keep the farm constant, let alone improve it. Add to that the penalties he was given from the Ben era, and he deserves some kudos.

 

Bloom tried a lot of things his first winter- most were very low cost reaches in the dark, but he hit on a few. This past winter, he had a little more to spend and made some mega hits, namely Kike & Renfroe and the Rule 5 steal of Whitlock from the hated Yankees. His in season moves worked like a charm, and some of his in season moves from last summer are paying off, too (Pivetta, Arroyo).

 

I'm thinking that given just an equal amount to spend as this past winter, we should see another step up, and when Price's deal comes off the books, another step up.

 

Some big choices remain to be made, but I do not think Bloom will shy away from the boldness that makes him who he is.

[illinoisredsox]

I've already admitted I was wrong about the length of the "cliff," but I know how much you love hearing me admit mistakes.

 

I miscalculated DD'd ability to draft well, despite bad picks. (I admitted that, too.)

 

I miscalculated Henry finding a GM like Bloom, who can work wonders with a relatively small winter spending budget. (I was right about Henry making resetting the tax a high priority that could, as it had in the past, be more than just for one year.)

 

I miscalculated how other AL teams did not keep building up their teams. The Astros let Springer and others go; the Yanks sat on their hands, and the Rays, as always, traded away some of their key pieces. In short, the whole AL took a step back, which lessened our need for a long step forward.

 

I do find it funny, that the guy who perhaps predicted the worst finish by the 2021 Sox out of any poster here, now acts like he did not think we were going to be bad for more than the 60 game season.

 

I was wrong about the length of the cliff- by a lot. I thought it would be 2-3 years long. The horrific finish to 2020 helped us get Mayer and others, so that helps the longer view. The resetting of the budget, and the loss of the sunken costs like Pedey and Price helped. (I do remember you being upset we traded Price.)

 

I'll say it again to make your day: I was wrong.

 

Good one with "make your day".

[notin]

I don't think he'll get 100 million, no. He's an excellent offensive weapon, but strictly a DH. And with his body type there are durability concerns. He's a 50-60 million guy at most.

 

What strikes me a little funny is how many people have been sounding anxious to get rid of JD Martinez, who is by any measure a better hitter than Schwarber over their careers.

 

I completely bypassed this.

 

Over their careers, maybe. But JD is no longer the 170 OPS+ hitter he was as recently as 2018. Over the past 3 years, his OPS+ is a respectable 125. In that same timeframe, Schwarber's is 126. So, basically equal but Schwarber is rising while JD is falling.

 

For one season, this is not a big deal. Frankly, if both get squeezed into the lineup (Schwarber in LF, JD at DH) I would certainly enjoy watching that team hit and closing my eyes when they are in the field.

 

Of course, bringing back Schwarber would also likely kill any rumored interest in Semien, or necessitate moving Verdugo/Duran/both for pitching...

[Nick]

I completely bypassed this.

 

Over their careers, maybe. But JD is no longer the 170 OPS+ hitter he was as recently as 2018. Over the past 3 years, his OPS+ is a respectable 125. In that same timeframe, Schwarber's is 126. So, basically equal but Schwarber is rising while JD is falling.

 

For one season, this is not a big deal. Frankly, if both get squeezed into the lineup (Schwarber in LF, JD at DH) I would certainly enjoy watching that team hit and closing my eyes when they are in the field.

 

Of course, bringing back Schwarber would also likely kill any rumored interest in Semien, or necessitate moving Verdugo/Duran/both for pitching...

 

Good thing is we'll know within 5 days after the World Series if JD will opt out or not. Also having Semien on roster will make easier to swallow Xander opting out and or not extending Devers and go to option B, such as moving Dalbec to 3B and Schwarber play 1B until Casas is ready.

 

I will still take stack line up 1-9 over defensive shortcomings. We play at Fenway. It's a hitter's ballpark.

 

Load up the farm with young guns. Names right now are better than what we had few years ago in our farm.

[jacksonianmarch]

I do not think Schwarber signs somewhere to be a 1b. He will sign in the place that allows him the most opportunity to succeed and while he was agreeable to playing 1b in a pennant chase, it will be different when he holds all the cards. My bet is he signs somewhere for a Stanton type agreement. 2/3 DH, 1/3 OF. If JD walks, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Schwarber stay in Boston. He has acclimated himself incredibly well

[Nick]

I do not think Schwarber signs somewhere to be a 1b. He will sign in the place that allows him the most opportunity to succeed and while he was agreeable to playing 1b in a pennant chase, it will be different when he holds all the cards. My bet is he signs somewhere for a Stanton type agreement. 2/3 DH, 1/3 OF. If JD walks, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Schwarber stay in Boston. He has acclimated himself incredibly well

 

I'm curious as to Yankees as it relates to health of their players.

 

Who are 'sure' starters coming back assuming they're healthy? What do you guys need? I'm curious.

 

I was always in favor of Sox acquiring G Cole type. But now I'm not sure. I don't think it's worth it unless you're sure Division winner. Wild Card sucks.

[moonslav59]

I'm curious as to Yankees as it relates to health of their players.

 

Who are 'sure' starters coming back assuming they're healthy? What do you guys need? I'm curious.

 

I was always in favor of Sox acquiring G Cole type. But now I'm not sure. I don't think it's worth it unless you're sure Division winner. Wild Card sucks.

 

jacko has a thread on the Yankee Off Season.

[notin]

I do not think Schwarber signs somewhere to be a 1b. He will sign in the place that allows him the most opportunity to succeed and while he was agreeable to playing 1b in a pennant chase, it will be different when he holds all the cards. My bet is he signs somewhere for a Stanton type agreement. 2/3 DH, 1/3 OF. If JD walks, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Schwarber stay in Boston. He has acclimated himself incredibly well

 

While everyone is quick to pigeonhole Schwarber as a DH, there’s actually a pretty good chance that, as a career National Leaguer, he doesn’t think of himself as one. Maybe he envisions himself as a left fielder.

 

If he returns to Boston, it will be because he likes playing here and the team met his contractual demands. I doubt he thinks of himself as the Heir Apparent to JD Martinez…

[moonslav59]

I'm still figuring we'll have about $40M to spend, assuming the lux tax system and line remain the same. If Henry feels like this is the time to go for it, he may allow us to get near the second line- or close to $60M to spend (per year). With so much salary and Price's deal coming off the books for 2023, Henry may allow one large and long deal to be signed. (Or extra large and short like for someone like Scherzer.)

 

If we are only looking to add maybe 4-5 free agents or additions for next season, the difference between $40M and $60M is very significant.

 

$40M might get a lot done, especially if Bloom can find more gems like Kike & Renfroe, but $60M for 4 slots would allow for some major additions, especially since 1-2 of those slots may just need $6-9M each to fill adequately.

 

Then, there are the extension issues with Devers, Bogey and others.

[notin]

Good thing is we'll know within 5 days after the World Series if JD will opt out or not. Also having Semien on roster will make easier to swallow Xander opting out and or not extending Devers and go to option B, such as moving Dalbec to 3B and Schwarber play 1B until Casas is ready.

 

I will still take stack line up 1-9 over defensive shortcomings. We play at Fenway. It's a hitter's ballpark.

 

Load up the farm with young guns. Names right now are better than what we had few years ago in our farm.

 

I strongly suspect JD Martinez will accept his final option year and return.

 

I also suspect the Sox will exercise their portion of Schwarber’s mutual option but Schwarber will not. Negotiations very possibly continue.

 

I predict Bogaerts will get extended with a nice raise. I was going to predict something in the neighborhood of $140 mill over 5 years, but let’s be honest and admit $250mill over 8 years is more likely…

[moonslav59]

I strongly suspect JD Martinez will accept his final option year and return.

 

I also suspect the Sox will exercise their portion of Schwarber’s mutual option but Schwarber will not. Negotiations very possibly continue.

 

I predict Bogaerts will get extended with a nice raise. I was going to predict something in the neighborhood of $140 mill over 5 years, but let’s be honest and admit $250mill over 8 years is more likely…

 

We will not extend Bogey to $250M/8.

 

The $140M/5 would be fine with me, but he won't take it.

 

I think we make him a fair offer of about $174M/6, and he'll refuse.

 

At that point, all bets are off. He could be traded or held onto for a QO offer next winter. We could also try to re-sign him, next winter on the open market.

 

It will be interesting to see what all these stud SSs make this winter, and what teams might be in the market for one in 2023.

[Old Red]

We will not extend Bogey to $250M/8.

 

The $140M/5 would be fine with me, but he won't take it.

 

I think we make him a fair offer of about $174M/6, and he'll refuse.

 

At that point, all bets are off. He could be traded or held onto for a QO offer next winter. We could also try to re-sign him, next winter on the open market.

 

It will be interesting to see what all these stud SSs make this winter, and what teams might be in the market for one in 2023.

 

I agree on the big no on the $250M/8. I also think $174M/6 would be to high. $125M-$140M/5 would be as high as I would go, and if he wouldn’t take it now, and wants to opt out then he has to be traded to get something for him instead of letting him walk out the door for nothing. I don’t think he’ll still be a SS for all that time either.

[moonslav59]

I agree on the big no on the $250M/8. I also think $174M/6 would be to high. $125M-$140M/5 would be as high as I would go, and if he wouldn’t take it now, and wants to opt out then he has to be traded to get something for him instead of letting him walk out the door for nothing. I don’t think he’ll still be a SS for all that time either.

 

I'm not sure I'd offer $174/6 either, but I think that is a fair FA market number.

 

We need to find out what he wants, and if we don't think we'll match it, I think trading him becomes more than 50% likely.

 

We could do him a favor by waiting for the deadline, so he can't get the QO, but we need to think about maximizing return- not doing anyone any favors.

 

I've been harsh on Bogey's D, but they guy can hit. He's always been a clear and big net plus in my book. I'd hate to see him go, but not as much as I hated saying good bye to Betts.

 

I've come around to thinking letting Betts go was the right thing to do, and that is making me think trading Bogey could very well be the right thing to do, this winter.

 

This is not to say I want to just hand him away for the best offer. If the best offer is not good, then wait for the deadline or take the comp pick and money saved, next winter and go large on someone else.