A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

It's been a long time coming for Part II, and yes 340 pages is too much to bear.

What a crazy season! In many ways, the team of the last 4-5 weeks is the same as the one from opening day to mid June, but in other ways, it's like night and day. The 40 man roster has not changed much until the Mead and deadline trades. Sure, there were additions as we put guys on the 60 Day IL, but a few were already in the Sox system.

Before I go into the new roster, I want to give a shout out to the bench. Much of the huge turn-around was fueled by SP'ers that we maybe 6th to 11th on the rotation depth chart: Tolle, Early (now gone,) Bennett and Sandoval. We've seen 18 different pitchers fill the 7 pen splots, yet our pen is one of the best in the league in fWAR and ERA-, among other stats. 9 pitchers have 20+ IP from the pen, while 13 have 13+ IP. We have a solid 7, now and are arguing over who to demote to make room for Miller.

Wong pretty much pushed Narvaez to the bench and a trade, although him sucking helped.

2B and SS have changed hands more times than anyone can name.

DH has been all over the map.

Only 1B (Contreras) 3B (Durbin) and the OF has gone pretty much subless.

There may still be some major roster changes to come, as our IL list can almost field a whole decent team, by itself:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Kelly & La Sorsa

C Rutschman

1B: Casas

2B: Mead

SS: Story

3B: IKF

OF/DH: Anthony

Some may/will not make a 2026 showing, but damn, this team seems to not need any of them, except Rutschman and maybe one pitcher to take innings from Tolle and Bennett, but hey, maybe Bello can handle the load.

Our rotation is among the best in MLB and could get better.

Our pen is top 2-3 in almost every category.

Our hitting still lacks multiple power bats, but the offense has come around to be around 10th to 14th best- maybe even top 10.

Our defense has been rock solid at nearly every slot.

We've been the best team in baseball for 5-6 weeks, and nobody has really been close. We've beaten the best of the best teams, and seem to have the focus and confidence to carry us at a good pace going forward.

I seriously doubt we can continue at this pace, but what a glory it has been. Rafaela has really come into his own, and Durbin flicked the team's light switch almost by himself. The team attitude seems just right. Contreras has brought a good kinda "edge" to the team's personality, and I love it.

It's hard not to be supremely optimistic about our chances. We will likely have a tough stretch or two before the season ends, but I like the fight in this team. They don't give up, despite Fred saying "game over."

Kudos to everyone, including Tracy and Brez.

Let's keep it "real" on this thread, and....

Go Sox!

[Nick]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's been a long time coming for Part II, and yes 340 pages is too much to bear.

What a crazy season! In many ways, the team of the last 4-5 weeks is the same as the one from opening day to mid June, but in other ways, it's like night and day. The 40 man roster has not changed much until the Mead and deadline trades. Sure, there were additions as we put guys on the 60 Day IL, but a few were already in the Sox system.

Before I go into the new roster, I want to give a shout out to the bench. Much of the huge turn-around was fueled by SP'ers that we maybe 6th to 11th on the rotation depth chart: Tolle, Early (now gone,) Bennett and Sandoval. We've seen 18 different pitchers fill the 7 pen splots, yet our pen is one of the best in the league in fWAR and ERA-, among other stats. 9 pitchers have 20+ IP from the pen, while 13 have 13+ IP. We have a solid 7, now and are arguing over who to demote to make room for Miller.

Wong pretty much pushed Narvaez to the bench and a trade, although him sucking helped.

2B and SS have changed hands more times than anyone can name.

DH has been all over the map.

Only 1B (Contreras) 3B (Durbin) and the OF has gone pretty much subless.

There may still be some major roster changes to come, as our IL list can almost field a whole decent team, by itself:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Crawford & Oviedo

RP: Kelly & La Sorsa

C Rutschman

1B: Casas

2B: Mead

SS: Story

3B: IKF

OF/DH: Anthony

Some may/will not make a 2026 showing, but damn, this team seems to not need any of them, except Rutschman and maybe one pitcher to take innings from Tolle and Bennett, but hey, maybe Bello can handle the load.

Our rotation is among the best in MLB and could get better.

Our pen is top 2-3 in almost every category.

Our hitting still lacks multiple power bats, but the offense has come around to be around 10th to 14th best- maybe even top 10.

Our defense has been rock solid at nearly every slot.

We've been the best team in baseball for 5-6 weeks, and nobody has really been close. We've beaten the best of the best teams, and seem to have the focus and confidence to carry us at a good pace going forward.

I seriously doubt we can continue at this pace, but what a glory it has been. Rafaela has really come into his own, and Durbin flicked the team's light switch almost by himself. The team attitude seems just right. Contreras has brought a good kinda "edge" to the team's personality, and I love it.

It's hard not to be supremely optimistic about our chances. We will likely have a tough stretch or two before the season ends, but I like the fight in this team. They don't give up, despite Fred saying "game over."

Kudos to everyone, including Tracy and Brez.

Let's keep it "real" on this thread, and....

Go Sox!

I'll have what Moon's drinking....

[moonslav59]

We've won 23 of 27 and 28 or 33! That is simply astounding and historical. The Rays were the second best team since June 25th and we gained 6.5 games on them.

June 25th was when we started our Yankee 4 game sweep and this whole magical journey. Here are some team numbers since then:

1st fWAR pitching at 6.4 (MIL was at 5.4 and CWS 4.9)

1st in Pen fWAR and 4th in rotation fWAR.

1st ERA- at 66

1st FIP at 3.25

6th in Runs scored at 167 (5.1 per game)

11th everyday fWAR at 4.7

11th wRC+ and 12th in OPS

For the year fangraphs has us ranked 6th in fielding, but DRS has us 5th and OAA 4th.

In the last 33 games, we basically have the best pitching, 5th best defense and a top 10 offense.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

I'll have what Moon's drinking....

I have to admit I'm about as high on the Sox as I've been since 2018.

Maybe in part because I really thought Brez did a good job improving on a pretty good 2025 team, and after such a horrific start, the doubts, hyper-criticisms and finger pointing became overwhelming.

It wasn't so much having to feel like maybe Fred, Red, the STORK and others might have been right, but rather how far off it looked like many of us were in our 2026 projections, and more importantly having to watch us piss away so many games we coulda-shoulda won.

Our run differential was always much better than our record indicated, but that offered very little solace and just a tiny fraction of hope for just a handful of posters and fans.

I'm not predicting a ring or the best record in the AL or ALE, but I will say this team is fun to watch. We improved the team on paper at the deadline, especially our worst batter (Narvaez) and added some OF and pen depth.

If we get nobody back from the IL. except Rutschman, we'll still have a top contending team. Guys like Anthony, Crochet and maybe even Crawford, Oviedo and IKF may make significant contributions.

[vegasbob]

Thanks for Part 2.

51 to go, (#51 already started well), which means the 5 primary starters. barring injury or severe fatigue , need to make 10 more starts each, 50 to 60 IPs.  Then you need 14 playoff wins.    The balance of the season will make or break on the starters and BPSandoval and Bello will be keys. Crochet is virtually no factor now

Regarding the hitters, all I know is that they showed the difficulties posed by an extended team wide slump, with few exceptions,   Followed by 6 weeks of power and small ball , run scoring.   Not sure what to expect. 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox batters since June 25th:

(before tonight)

1.467 Jones (15 PAs)

1.039 Contreras (not slowing down) 2-4 tonight

.970 Monasterio (BAM! DHAM Who?) 2-4 tonight

.885 Yoshida (building back value) 2-4 tonight

.845 Durbin (the catalyst) 2-3 w HR maybe to .875.

.843 Rafaela (steady as can be) 1-3 tonight

Nobody for 162 points!

.694 Abreu (2 dingers probably jumps him to .740.)

,681 Seigler (0-1 tonight)

.636 Wong (0-4 tonight)

.568 Sogard (but 2-4 tonight)

.541 Duran (now that Narvaez is gone...) 2-4 tonight

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Damn Rays scored 2 in the 9th and 2 in the 11th to beat the Rockies!

Yanks won.

Astros beat the Jays.

Tigers beat the M's.

TEX won and MIN lost.

CLE and of course the CWS lost.

_____________________

The Sox are just 11 runs from leading the AL in run differential.

-5.5 GB TBR

-2.0 NYY

+2.5 CWS

+3.5 HOU

+5.0 CLE

+ 6.0 MIN & TEX

BAL, DET & SEA hanging around.

___________________

Still 7th in MLB in winning % (6th in run diff)

Loss column:

-1 NYY

-2 CHC

-5 TBR

-6 ATL & LAD

-8 MIL

[moonslav59]

Next series (weekend)

ATH at BOS (then at TOR)

ATL at NYY (then day off and v SEA)

TBR at SEA (then at ATH)

HOU at SDP (then at SFG)

CLE at CWS

MIN at MIL

BAL at TEX

DET at SFG

[moonslav59]

At the start of the season, I felt this could be Abreu's "break out season," and he's kinda been a little bit of a let down. Maybe he'll end up making a big difference over the next 2 months and into the playoffs.

Remember someone said earlier, "The PLAYOFFS? We need to look at .500 as the goal."

[JoeBrady]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I felt this could be Abreu's "break out season," and he's kinda been a little bit of a let down.

It is definitely a breakout season.  He has similar stats as last year, but is now playing fulltime against lefties.  That's a big difference over being a platoon player.  And he projects to be a 6-WAR player.

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At the start of the season, I felt this could be Abreu's "break out season," and he's kinda been a little bit of a let down. Maybe he'll end up making a big difference over the next 2 months and into the playoffs.

Remember someone said earlier, "The PLAYOFFS? We need to look at .500 as the goal."

Guilty, but i heard lots of fans wondering if this team would ever get to 500. This is an outlier season not seen before, and most likely won’t for a long time again. From Uncle Jed, and pitiful to Gomer, and Shazam, and now to Frank Barone, and Holy Crap.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It is definitely a breakout season.  He has similar stats as last year, but is now playing fulltime against lefties.  That's a big difference over being a platoon player.  And he projects to be a 6-WAR player.

I was thinking he should have played FT earlier and instead of Duran, but Duran had that bust-out 2024 season, so it's understandable.

Wilyer's offense is not much better, or wasn't until last night's stats were added, and the uptick in WAR is mostly playing time fueled, especially the dWAR.

Even after last night...

2023-2025> 2026

BA: .256>251

OBP: .326>.324

SLG: .465>.452

OPS: .791> .775 

OPS+ 118>119

HRs per 650: 28>27

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Guilty, but i heard lots of fans wondering if this team would ever get to 500. This is an outlier season not seen before, and most likely won’t for a long time again. From Uncle Jed, and pitiful to Gomer, and Shazam, and now to Frank Barone, and Holy Crap.

The "but others thought the same thing" angle never has worked for me.

(I'm a teacher, so I hear that 50 times a day.)

[Hugh2]

The only time I can remmember a season with this level of extreme, and I don't want to open up my mouth here but it was the 2011 season, the "chicken and beer" season.  But this team is different than that one in so many ways.  But they started off cold as hell. Played like a 100 win team for 4 months, then completely fell apart in September. 

[Bellhorn04]

I think the longest hot streak I've seen a team have was the 1984 Tigers, who started the season 35-5.  They went 69-53 the rest of the way for 104 wins, then blew out the Royals and Padres to win the ring.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It is definitely a breakout season.  He has similar stats as last year, but is now playing fulltime against lefties.  That's a big difference over being a platoon player.  And he projects to be a 6-WAR player.

It's been a very good season, but I can't qualify it as a breakout yet. His wRC+ is in line with previous years. I guess it depends on what you consider a breakout. 

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The "but others thought the same thing" angle never has worked for me.

(I'm a teacher, so I hear that 50 times a day.)

They absolutely stunk up the joint for the first part of the season. It was completely fair to question if they could get back in it. 

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They absolutely stunk up the joint for the first part of the season. It was completely fair to question if they could get back in it. 

Seriously.  Early on there were people saying it was the worst Sox team they'd ever seen.  One of the biggest a turnarounds I've seen a team have.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seriously.  Early on there were people saying it was the worst Sox team they'd ever seen.  One of the biggest a turnarounds I've seen a team have.

It was! They were 14 games under! They were on pace to be one of the worst Sox teams of all time. They needed an all time run just to get back to .500 before the trade deadline. They deserve their flowers, but don't forget how miserable they played early on (14 games under, 30th ranked offense). They got their coaches fired they were so horrible! 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seriously.  Early on there were people saying it was the worst Sox team they'd ever seen.  One of the biggest a turnarounds I've seen a team have.

One of the worst teams I’ve ever seen play. Now it’s the best team I’ve ever seen play. What team will show up in October?🤔

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

One of the worst teams I’ve ever seen play. Now it’s the best team I’ve ever seen play. What team will show up in October?🤔

I hope it's the one we're watching now! It's been a lot of fun. 

If they need to have a WS hangover in a lockout shortened season, it's fine by me. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It was! They were 14 games under! They were on pace to be one of the worst Sox teams of all time. They needed an all time run just to get back to .500 before the trade deadline. They deserve their flowers, but don't forget how miserable they played early on (14 games under, 30th ranked offense). They got their coaches fired they were so horrible! 

More than justified for all the criticism, and bashing they got, and just as justified for all the accolades they are getting now. What have you done for me lately, and the here, and now at its best.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

More than justified for all the criticism, and bashing they got, and just as justified for all the accolades they are getting now. What have you done for me lately, and the here, and now at its best.

The vibes are high. The team seemed very loose last night. I'm sure they are excited about Brez trying to bring in help at the deadline. Nice to see Adley in the dugout. Let's see how all the pieces fit. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

One of the worst teams I’ve ever seen play. Now it’s the best team I’ve ever seen play. What team will show up in October?🤔

You can never get giddy with this game - although I'm sure Dave O'Brien would disagree.  I'm just watching and enjoying.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It was! They were 14 games under! They were on pace to be one of the worst Sox teams of all time. They needed an all time run just to get back to .500 before the trade deadline. They deserve their flowers, but don't forget how miserable they played early on (14 games under, 30th ranked offense). They got their coaches fired they were so horrible! 

Only the offense was terrible. The pitching and defense were very good. Even at 14 games under.500 the Sox run differential was a plus.

So I disagree that the team as a whole was terrible.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Only the offense was terrible. The pitching and defense were very good. Even at 14 games under.500 the Sox run differential was a plus.

So I disagree that the team as a whole was terrible.

You're right, but at 32-46 they were on pace for a 66-96 record, which would have been the worst record since 1965.

Plus they would have been fire-selling guys like Gray and Chapman and maybe Contreras.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Only the offense was terrible. The pitching and defense were very good. Even at 14 games under.500 the Sox run differential was a plus.

So I disagree that the team as a whole was terrible.

As a whole, they were 14 games under .500. That is terrible. 

[UtahSox]

When do the Sox pull interim tag off Tracy? He has been a revelation. He’s not batting 1000, but he does so much right day to day. And it feels like the locker room follows him. Breslow has shown growth and vision with this team… Regardless of the results of the 1st 3 months of the season, if you would have said to me 

“no impact on season from Anthony only plays 30 games and has mid 6’s OPS, and Crochet will only start 6 games and a 6.3 ERA…. What do you think Red Sox record would be on Aug 5th?” I would have said best case scenario .500

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

When do the Sox pull interim tag off Tracy?

The offseason?