A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No rental deals- not bad for 4 deadline deals.

I didn't think about it, but the 'no rentals' is beneficial.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

What worries me some is the medicals were the hold up, and if the Red SOX medical staff gave the OK.

Maybe... maybe the medical hold-ups were the reports on Eyanson and Witherspoon. 

Remember, Papelbon says they were "damaged goods." Yes, he works for the Red Sox, but that means he also knows a lot more about their personnel than any fans do.

Pap's fairly credible as the best closer in star years in team history -- a great ex-pitcher, and past/present/future ex-trovert...

[dannycater]

Monasterio is 27 for last 77....a .350 clip, hit safely including tonight 16 of last 17 games, 9 doubles, a triple, 3 dingers and 13 RBI since July 1...OBP is .415 since July 1....this is not a fluke...plus it wasn't seen in the highlights and I kept telling my brother about the play at Dodger Stadium...Bello was about to get touched for some runs and it was 1st and 2nd and a smash by Teoscar Hernandez is going into LF when AM somehow backhands it and makes a monster throw from deep hole to throw him out and make it 2nd and 3rd. Muncy was IBB and Bello got out of the jam with a Sox 4-3 lead...that's GG defense from him and he had a diving stop in same game. This guy is legit going forward. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I didn't think about it, but the 'no rentals' is beneficial.

I kinda expected we'd have to fill one need via rental, just to keep the return costs from being way too high. Our returns were rather high on the AR and Mead trades, but the others were kinda minor. (Rogers is a rental, but he was a throw-in, so they didnt count him, I guess.)

This deadline seemed to have way more multi year players traded than in the past. Maybe taht's because there were so many buyers and so few sellers. Maybe the pending lockout spurred some GMs to sell 1.3 year players like AR,

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, dannycater said:

Monasterio is 27 for last 77....a .350 clip, hit safely including tonight 16 of last 17 games, 9 doubles, a triple, 3 dingers and 13 RBI since July 1...OBP is .415 since July 1....this is not a fluke...plus it wasn't seen in the highlights and I kept telling my brother about the play at Dodger Stadium...Bello was about to get touched for some runs and it was 1st and 2nd and a smash by Teoscar Hernandez is going into LF when AM somehow backhands it and makes a monster throw from deep hole to throw him out and make it 2nd and 3rd. Muncy was IBB and Bello got out of the jam with a Sox 4-3 lead...that's GG defense from him and he had a diving stop in same game. This guy is legit going forward. 

I kinda convinced myself after looking at his last 2 seasons combined, but you did a better job. I still have some doubts, but what baseball player is doubt-free?

[dannycater]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I kinda convinced myself after looking at his last 2 seasons combined, but you did a better job. I still have some doubts, but what baseball player is doubt-free?

Don't forget I have bandwagoned like no other, I have given up on this team so often last several seasons, I can't even imagine. But it's the lack of entertainment of the team, often lack of power--and then this thing happens and it's getting to a point where it's mythical. I'm a bad fan, but I'll take the hit. I am excited about this squad right now and playoffs certainly looks like a possibility of a lot of fun. 

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, dannycater said:

Don't forget I have bandwagoned like no other, I have given up on this team so often last several seasons, I can't even imagine. 

I didn't forget.

I thought last year's team was fun to watch, and even when we were sucking this April to June, there were some fun players to enjoy watching- Willson, Ceddanne, Sonny, Ranger, Tolle, Early, Whitlock & Chapman.

So many losses, despite a plus run differential became too frustrating. It was easy to give up on them. I've given up on teams, too, and sometimes early. There was one season I think I was the first to throw in the towel.

I've been suggesting sell as some deadlines when others were wanting us to buy. You are not alone.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Imagine if just one of the following occurs in September and carries through the playoffs:

Abreu gets hot again and puts up numbers that can carry a team like he does to start the season.

Story returns (at DH) and does something similar.  It's rare and it's been a while but it has happened.

Rutschman returns to all star level play.

Now we are looking at a really dangerous team.  Let's assume everyone else returns to expected performances.  Ceddanne and Durbin cool off but Duran gets back to where he has been the last 2 years, getting on base and created havoc.   Everyone else stays the same.

They would roll out a playoff team with a lineup that is much improved and would produce runs.  Every one of their starting pitchers can be counted on for a solid outing, if one starts leaking oil Bello can come in and shut the door for 4 innings keeping them in the game.  

Assuming Guererro continues his magical ride the game is now we turned over to a guy who is throwing dancing 103 MPH sinkers and a left handed flame thrower before we get to Whit and Chapman.  

Even if he doesn't hit Rutschman behind the plate will turn one of the best defensive teams in baseball into perhaps the best.  They have speed and have shown the ability to create runs by playing small ball, they can beat you in a number of ways.  

Pretty exciting and a post I never imagined writing a month ago.

[jad]

At this point, all Story's return will do is to put a better player on the bench.

[Old Red]

It was pretty easy to understand why the Red Sox got to a low of 14 games under 500 when they were last in HR, and runs scored, but now that has changed, and they are on a Big surge. The Red Sox have hit HR in 74 games this year. The Red Sox are 51-23 in those games, and 26-1 in their latest surge in the win column.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

17 minutes ago, jad said:

At this point, all Story's return will do is to put a better player on the bench.

 

Agreed, I can't stand Story as my posts indicate.  But I do believe he will be forced back into the lineup and we can only hope. I really don't trust Masa.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It was pretty easy to understand why the Red Sox got to a low of 14 games under 500 when they were last in HR, and runs scored, but now that has changed, and they are on a Big surge. The Red Sox have hit HR in 74 games this year. The Red Sox are 51-23 in those games, and 26-1 in their latest surge in the win column.

They had a run differential of -7 on June 24th and were the worst team in the AL.

That's kinda hard to understand, when about half the teams had worse than that.

Yes, the offense, lack of HRs and Crochet/Bello stinking up their starts were all major factors in that awful start, I don't think we were as bad as the record indicated.

Nobody is 30-5 good over a full season, so we are somewhere in between.

[Old Red]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They had a run differential of -7 on June 24th and were the worst team in the AL.

That's kinda hard to understand, when about half the teams had worse than that.

Yes, the offense, lack of HRs and Crochet/Bello stinking up their starts were all major factors in that awful start, I don't think we were as bad as the record indicated.

Nobody is 30-5 good over a full season, so we are somewhere in between.

When you are last in the league in runs scored even with the good pitching you were what your record says you were. On paper they wasn’t that bad, and on paper they are not this good now, and that’s why the game isn’t played on paper. The league is also just as weak now since they’ve been winning as it was when they were losing. Wide open.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, jad said:

At this point, all Story's return will do is to put a better player on the bench.

I don't think Monasterio's defense is that much worse than Story's at this point and he has a better k rate and whiff rate. I think that works more for what this team is trying to do. 

[Old Red]

45 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

 

Agreed, I can't stand Story as my posts indicate.  But I do believe he will be forced back into the lineup and we can only hope. I really don't trust Masa.

Story isn’t ready to play yet, and a lot could happen between now, and when he is. At any rate that will be up to Brez, and Tracy if, and when he plays.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When you are last in the league in runs scored even with the good pitching you were what your record says you were. On paper they wasn’t that bad, and on paper they are not this good now, and that’s why the game isn’t played on paper. The league is also just as weak now since they’ve been winning as it was when they were losing. Wide open.

I disagree. Run differential is the leading indicator of W-L, not just one side of the runs scored vs runs allowed.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Monasterio's defense is that much worse than Story's at this point and he has a better k rate and whiff rate. I think that works more for what this team is trying to do. 

He's actually looks pretty good on D by the eye test, but the metrics say "meh" at best and "yuck" at worst.

at SS

-1 DRS (-4 career)

-6 OAA (-7 career)

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree. Run differential is the leading indicator of W-L, not just one side of the runs scored vs runs allowed.

Run differential may be the leading indicator of W-L, but W-L is still what counts the most. Run differential doesn’t decide who goes to the postseason, or who wins the postseason. W-L record does. I go back to this past NNA season when a losing coach said analytically they won the series. I repeat the Losing coach said that like it counted, or something. W-L will always count the most.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's actually looks pretty good on D by the eye test, but the metrics say "meh" at best and "yuck" at worst.

at SS

-1 DRS (-4 career)

-6 OAA (-7 career)

Story:

2025 -7 DRS, -9 OAA

2026 -2 DRS, -3 OAA

I don't want either as my long term solution, but I think I'd prefer Mona until a better option is called up. 

[Hitch]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Monasterio's defense is that much worse than Story's at this point and he has a better k rate and whiff rate. I think that works more for what this team is trying to do. 

The eye test tells me Mona's defence is significantly worse. Not sure what the stats say, but I'm scared whenever a ball is hit at him.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Run differential may be the leading indicator of W-L, but W-L is still what counts the most. Run differential doesn’t decide who goes to the postseason, or who wins the postseason. W-L record does. I go back to this past NNA season when a losing coach said analytically they won the series. I repeat the Losing coach said that like it counted, or something. W-L will always count the most.

We are talking about what normally or better indicates W-L records:

Runs scored

vs

Run differential

Obviously, we were not as bad as our W-L record indicated or as our runs scored indicated. We came back closer to the mean.

The run diff says we should be 65-48, and we are now 62-51.

Larger sample size now, and...

We are 20th in runs scored.

We are 6th in tun differential.

We have the 7th best record in MLB.

Which stat is closer to W-L indication?

On June 24th, we were 29th in runs scored, 16th in run differential and 29th in record, so it looked like runs scored was "the accurate" indicator of who we were, but it turned out to be wrong, when the sample size lengthened.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story:

2025 -7 DRS, -9 OAA

2026 -2 DRS, -3 OAA

I don't want either as my long term solution, but I think I'd prefer Mona until a better option is called up. 

Thank you for this. I had meant to post his numbers next to Monasterio's, but forgot.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The eye test tells me Mona's defence is significantly worse. Not sure what the stats say, but I'm scared whenever a ball is hit at him.

He’s had a good run, and a lot can happen between now, and Oct, but I’d be very surprised if he was the starting SS come postseason.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The eye test tells me Mona's defence is significantly worse. Not sure what the stats say, but I'm scared whenever a ball is hit at him.

"Worse" than the 2025-2026 Story?

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

He’s had a good run, and a lot can happen between now, and Oct, but I’d be very surprised if he was the starting SS come postseason.

Agreed.

They will almost certainly start Story at SS, after he rehabs and plays a few games part time.

The only way Monasterio keeps the job is if he gets his OPS over .800 and doesn't look horrible on D.

I think the Sox feel Story is still good on D- kinda like Devers thinking he was good on D.

Head-scratcher.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We are talking about what normally or better indicates W-L records:

Runs scored

vs

Run differential

Obviously, we were not as bad as our W-L record indicated or as our runs scored indicated. We came back closer to the mean.

The run diff says we should be 65-48, and we are now 62-51.

Larger sample size now, and...

We are 20th in runs scored.

We are 6th in tun differential.

We have the 7th best record in MLB.

Which stat is closer to W-L indication?

On June 24th, we were 29th in runs scored, 16th in run differential and 29th in record, so it looked like runs scored was "the accurate" indicator of who we were, but it turned out to be wrong, when the sample size lengthened.

I know you get into that kind of stuff, but I don’t, and really don’t care what stats determine how good a team is playing. That’s good for you, but as a I’ve stated many times it’s the W-L record that decides who gets in, and it’s the W-L record that decides who wins, and I just don’t need to go any deeper than that. You don’t score enough, and you don’t win, and when you score enough you do win, and that’s as far as I go, and need to go. Did I tell you about an NBA coach who felt better because even though they lost the series analytics said they won?

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The eye test tells me Mona's defence is significantly worse. Not sure what the stats say, but I'm scared whenever a ball is hit at him.

Well, I've felt the same way about Story going back to the end of last season. 

[Hitch]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Well, I've felt the same way about Story going back to the end of last season. 

He's far from perfect and I'm happy to not have him there, but I'll take his defence over Mona's all day. Mona doesn't have the benefit of carrying an injury either. 

There's always the chance Arias comes up and Story is at 2nd/DH on times, but feels unlikely.

Time will tell. 

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We are talking about what normally or better indicates W-L records:

Runs scored

vs

Run differential

Obviously, we were not as bad as our W-L record indicated or as our runs scored indicated. We came back closer to the mean.

The run diff says we should be 65-48, and we are now 62-51.

Larger sample size now, and...

We are 20th in runs scored.

We are 6th in tun differential.

We have the 7th best record in MLB.

Which stat is closer to W-L indication?

On June 24th, we were 29th in runs scored, 16th in run differential and 29th in record, so it looked like runs scored was "the accurate" indicator of who we were, but it turned out to be wrong, when the sample size lengthened.

No I was talking how the Red Sox started all this winning when they started hitting more HR, and most of the times with runners on base, and what the record was when they hit HR. I really wasn’t going any deeper than that. The W-L speaks for itself when they hit HR especially during the streak.

[dannycater]

Sox have hit more HRs than any other team in MLB since July 9....Abreu is on an epic run of dingers to get to 20...he was part of the problem like so many earlier in the season...certain guys who needed to step up were not in Abreu, Duran, Durbin, Yoshida (not for power)--now they all are..and you still have the real MVP (not pitchers) in Contreras, who has not been really around much due to suspension, injury, sickness, hit in head, etc of late--then you have Rafaela going off as best all-around player really during the 30-5 run. This is sick good, really awesome positives. Go Sox!